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Cosmo_Kramer

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Posts posted by Cosmo_Kramer

    Angels sign Jose Quintana (1 year, $8 million)

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

    If this sets up a Bauer signing then awesome. However he looks like a 3/4 SP with some potential to rebound. This feels like Teheran all over again. Again coupled with Bauer that's great because he'd be a 4 in our rotation. Let's not pretend this guy alone even remotely pushes the needle. 

    Quintana is certainly better than Teheran.

    Holy Hell, Trevor Bauer!

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Trendon said:

    Those links are confusing because they have inaccuracies. I don't remember if it was this thread or another thread where I already said this, but Cots has the wrong 2020 salaries for Trout and Upton and has the wrong 2021 salary for Upton. Also, it does not include the 900,000 CIN is sending to the Angels in the Iglesias trade.

    And this is why Roster Resource is the site to use..

    Holy Hell, Trevor Bauer!

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Hubs said:

    You assume that I got them mixed up. I didn’t. Cots had it earlier in the off-season at 191, they’ve since revised it to 184. I find their numbers to be more accurate to what is reported than fangraphs or spotrac. The reported figure Of just over 71 at 37 percent is right there at 191. They’ve been as high as 189 In previous years in real payroll.

    I have them currently slightly over 150 in guaranteed contracts (real payroll). AAV is around 5M less, as Trout is down 1.6, Pujols is down 6 and Upton is down 3 plus R.Iglesias is down 0.25. Thats about 11 m but Rendon is getting 35 and his number is just north of 28.

    Club control and Ohtani adds 11-12 Max so 162. 

    How high they’ll go, no one knows but Arte. 

    I doubt Bauer takes 15 in first year unless he also got a 15 M signing bonus.

    Roster resource is accurate. You are not including player benefits and 40 man roster salaries in your luxury tax calculations. 162M AAV appears to be your active roster total, so add ~15.5M and ~2.25M, respectively. Therefore, it comes out to ~180M luxury tax currently. 

    Also, 15M signing bonus counts as real payroll for the year it's paid, so that wouldn't be helpful.

    Holy Hell, Trevor Bauer!

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Hubs said:

    Angels Luxury Tax number is lower than you said. But It is irrelevant now. Trout is like $2 m less, Pujols is $6 m less, and Upton is $3 m Less, Rendon is $6.5 m more and Iglesias is like .20 less, or something. So the luxury tax is say $5 Less plus the 15.5 and 1.5 million in minor League 40 man salaries that go on the number so maybe $12 more than the 162 I have them at now. So 174. With a tax at 210, or 36M In room now.

    Luxury Tax is irrelevant though until the end Of the season. Guys may be promoted from the 40, guys may be cut, and all of that is prorated.

    The Angels were actually at 191 M in real Payroll before the pandemic shortened salaries and they’d have like 29M left to get there again. 

    Your numbers are getting mixed up. The Angels luxury tax number last year was $191 million. Not real payroll. The luxury tax is just an AAV calculation.

    Real payroll is what matters to Arte. Last year was ~$180 million real payroll. Currently this year is ~$165 million. So real payroll is ~$15 million short of last year. But Arte could increase payroll from last year. And you can backload FA contracts so the real payroll stays lower this year.

    The luxury tax is just AAV though. So backloading doesn't matter. Actual payroll doesn't matter. It's the AAVs of the team added up. Last year, again, $191 million, but currently at ~$180 million luxury tax. The first threshold is $210 million, so the Angels are ~$30 million short of the luxury tax.

    We have heard from Jeff in the past that Arte is willing to exceed the luxury tax, but operates based on actual payroll. So the Angels will likely add $15 million of real payroll, but the luxury tax number will depend on the AAVs.

    My sample Bauer contract had $15 million salary in 2021 and $30 million AAV.

    The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Trendon said:

    Roster Resource seems to be the closest. Their numbers are accurate (aside from arbitration estimates) and include pre-arb estimates as well.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/angels

    The hardest part to account for seems to be pre-arb estimates, and Roster Resource at least provides an explanation for how they come up with their pre-arb estimates:

    1. The "estimated salaries for players not yet eligible for arbitration" figure (which is included in luxury tax and "actual" payroll) presumes that, when factoring DL time, each team will need to pay for 33 player-seasons over the course of the regular season. This number is calculated by subtracting the number of guaranteed and arbitration-year contracts from 33(the number of player-seasons) and then multiplying the number that remains (typically around 10-15) by the league minimum salary.

    Pre arb is usually near minimum anyway, so the differences are small

    Holy Hell, Trevor Bauer!

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

    Angels ~$165 million payroll right now, including Suzuki and arbitration deals. They finished ~$180 million last year.

    Angels luxury tax ~$180 million right now. $210/$230/$250 million are the tax levels.

    Bauer 6/180 (15/25/30/30/40/40) would fit, as an example

    Holy Hell, Trevor Bauer!

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    16 hours ago, Hubs said:

    Canning will be the best of the three starters that finished the season in the rotation for the Angels in 2020 and are still Projected to be in the rotation. Meaning he’ll be better than Bundy and Heaney. If not in 2021, then def in 2022. 

    I think he’s a future Ace. Garrett Richards was the closest thing we had to an Ace before his Injury since Weaver’s peak. He also struggled a bit in his first seasons before his excellent 2014. Canning has been better and has started more games than Richards did in 2011-2013.

    I can’t believe Richards is almost 33. 

    Anyway, my point is canning is not a swing man and he won’t be bumped out of the rotation. 

    Canning's elbow could be worrying, but agreed on upside. His stuff is legit.

    Here are the 20 starters with the lowest contact% over the last two seasons. Min 120 innings.

    1-5. Snell, Castillo, Cole, Clevinger, DeGrom

    6-10. Giolito, Bieber, Maeda, Verlander, Scherzer

    11-15. Ray, Lamet, Sale, Carrasco, Flaherty

    16-20. Gausman, Canning, Darvish, Strasburg, Corbin

    Gray is 26, and Bauer is 27

    The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

    I don't think we're connecting here.  What I'm saying is that SD is guaranteeing him money a decade in advance and giving him financial security in exchange for something. Opt outs would give them zero incentive. Two years extra does jack for them.

    He has very good reason to agree to a 10-11 year deal without opt outs, while they have no reason at all to agree to one with them. 

    Stanton's extension had an opt out after 6/107, with 7/218 remaining.

    My sample contract with opt out would have been 6/120, with 5/200 remaining.

    But go on about how it's unreasonable..

    The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

    Would that that remove any incentive SD has to extend him at all? The whole point is they're paying extra for the early years in order to secure him through his prime. Opt outs really don't make sense where the majority of the long term contract is covering team-controlled seasons. 

    That's why I included a couple FA years before the opt out

    Snell to the Padres

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    Just now, totdprods said:

    They could also just try to slot in solid pitching and upgrades this year - Musgrove, Quintana, Odorizzi - and go for someone like Syndergaard next year, since Minasian had ties to him. If Bauer is too expensive or not interested and other trade targets like Castillo are unrealistic.

    Yeah, they could just waste every year of Trout by continuing to pay for mediocre pitching and crossing their fingers that the continual "next year" ace will finally choose them

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