ScruffytheJanitor

I think out main problem has been prospects. We always seem to have a number of "excellent" minor league relievers, but precious few have panned out. Bedrosian and Minor have a chance to turn this tide, and I have high hopes for Alcantra, but by and large we seem to be hoping for a farm system that doesn't produce, have Mike Butcher screw players up, or just get plain unlucky with injury. 

I sincerely hope we take a shot at Greg Holland this offseason, even with his recovery. Hell, I'd take a shot at Melancon. The ONE thing Scioscia has done well consistently well has been manage his bullpens. It's high time we gave him better options. 

23 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

This sort of math, and WAR in general, is dicey because "replacement" means a different thing at the time you are looking for the replacement. 

When Richards got hurt in May and the Angels had no one else, the replacement was Jhoulys Chacin. 

If he has TJ this winter they will be able to spend the whole winter looking for someone, and presumably do better than Chacin. 

Also, the raw number for WAR for pitchers is based on FIP, which I think we should all agree, in this day of batted ball info, is a obsolete stat. 

I don't know if I'd call FIP "Obsolete". It's still fairly useful for predicting future performance, and tracks remarkably well with ERA. It's AWFUL at telling you much about a player in-season, but my main problem with it is that you need a good base of innings to really be useful; it doesn't tell us very much about first or second year starters, for instance. It's more of a career-level stat. Additionally, ground ball pitchers are always going to look better than flyball pitchers. It's not the end-all stat, but it's a fairly easy way of seeing if a player just sucks or is just unlucky. 

23 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

While I believe you're making solid points, IMO it's really hard to argue his power isn't in the elite level when he is among MLBs best when it comes to exit velocities and this is despite his having had a wrist injury early on that seemed to sap his power for a while -- I honestly believe that's played into his poor season but, not something anyone can prove.   Regardless his average EV of 92 MPH this season is higher than Mike Trouts (90), who is known for his elite level batspeed and exit velocity -- and like Trout he is still very young.  I do agree that tapping into the power potential is hampered by his inability to lay off pitches, but his contact rates aren't that far off league average -- last time I looked he was within 2-3% of the league average and ahead of guys like Trumbo.  He's a bit of an oddity for a hack...  He's swing happy, but he's had solid contact rates -- another reason why I think he might BABIP his way to a few really strong seasons.  Yeah, I'm saying he will luck his way to some solid batting averages.

 

Actually, BABIP is a better indicator of pitchers luck than it is hitters; Individuals can have consistently high or low BABIP, but hitters as a group are around .300. Matt Kemp has a career BABIP around .340, for instance. 

I think of him as a useful backup. 70% of his plate appearances end in an out. While I will give him credit for improving his plate discipline this year, it still isn't good. His 2015 was super fluky (his BABIP was pretty far above his career norms). Having said all of that, he really could have a 4-5 season run as a solid outfielder with punch, or hell: he could be Mark Trumbo 2.0 (now with defense!). I just don't know that I'd want him as a starting OF in a normal situation (would be a godsend for this team), especially since power is going to get him WAY overpaid come arbitration time. 

And thanks for the compliments. I have actually been around here for a while; I just took a break and couldn't remember my log in passwords-- and the email account I used hasn't been touched in four years.  I used to be known 'round here as  Long Reliever (I actually made the post reporting the Pujols signing), and then I wrote a few things for Angelswin.com as well (Greg Bearringer). 

5 hours ago, ScottyA_MWAH said:

WAR is a hard one to pinpoint for pitchers.  Look at it like this.  Let's say just for sake of comparison, Tim Lincecum is Richards replacement.  The difference between Richards and Lincecum across an entire season is likely considerably more than four wins.  Just a guess on my part, but I think it's likely closer to a 10-win difference between 30 starts of Lincecum and 30 starts of Richards.

I think a big reason for the disparity is that a replacement level starter is calculated at what should be a league average starting pitcher (eat least to my knowledge).  Not many teams have a pitcher that can step in at any time and be a solid #3/4 starter like that.  For the most part, a replacement level starter for a team depleted by injuries like the Angels are is a Kyle Kendrick type of pitcher.

So in essence, what I'm saying is that in specific context to the Angels, Richards might be 10 wins better or more than his replacement.  That's a pretty big deal. 

I'm no Mathologist, but I am pretty sure that is not right. For one, WAR is meant to compare your stats to an average AAA starter. Kyle Kendrick is probably exactly the kind of pitcher this is meant to reflect. 

The main problem, though, is that no player is completely responsible for a "win" in the statistic. So even if Richards would go 7 strong innings while Kyle Kendirck might go 5 and give up a 4 runs, that's doesn't mean Richards is credited with one "WAR". 

I remember Merkle's Boner like it was yesterday!

Also: Didn't the Cubs win their last world series on a base running mistake?

On 11/23/2015 at 6:17 PM, DailyHalo said:

Would you do it for 16M a year? I don't know if I would but it makes you think about it for a second.

Maybe? I can't get over how average  Beltre looked in Seattle (Compared with his hall-of-fame career in LA/TEX). SPEND SOME DOLLLARS, ARTE.

I never, ever, ever got the hype about Grichuk. His performance is highly dependent on BABIP; when it's good, he looks great; when it's bad, he looks bad. Bottom line: he does not get on base enough, and his power (which can be impressive) isn't among the super elite because he doesn't get his bat on enough balls. Don't get me wrong: he's be great on this team (or any team) as a bench piece, but I just do not see someone you'd want to give 600 PA a year. 

2 minutes ago, ksangel said:

These two quotes were from May of 2016 on Mlb.com

 

"He can be an everyday third baseman in the big leagues," Scioscia said. "He can pick it at third base, and if his bat continues to grow as much as it's grown in the last couple years, he's got a chance to be an everyday third baseman. I think that's his upside first and foremost."

"He's figured some things out," Scioscia said this week. "The ball's definitely coming off of his bat hotter, and I think he's made strides to be more of an offensive player."

 

You could take these as positive quotes, but Scioscia is going to say the right things.

 

To me these quotes make it clear - the "and if" and "be more" - that Scioscia doesn't think Cowart has the offensive ability to go with his glove.

 Plus he's never been called up since these quotes were made...it's always Marte.

This is just.... dumb. Look, I don't know that Cowart isn't Matt Dominguez (though hopefully he won't just suddenly suck there like Dominguez), but Cowart is a really good defender, and I just don't think Marte is some kind of revelation at the plate. 

I know when I want to judge a trade, I watch a single at-bat from a few years ago. 

I think we pretty much have to pencil Meyer into the rotation next year. We need at least one other veteran starter, and probably another AAA-level player as depth. If we are really serious about avoiding the Pitching market (even though Nova seems like a reasonable target), that pretty much leaves a trade in this off-season. Angels should be entertaining (and a bit frustrating) to follow this off-season. 

On 8/1/2016 at 7:35 PM, ScottyA_MWAH said:

Don't look now, but Baldaquin is hitting .333 across his last ten games and is turning into a solid defender.  I just had my annual trip down to So-Cal and got to catch them in action.  Baldaquin looked surprisingly good.   Much better than last year. 

That was the buzz during the Spring, if I remember correctly. It's a shame he got injured, because if he could develop into even a bench player, that would be great. 

I dunno, I thought this was pretty revealing: 

Quote

Oh, the Angels are not about to concede ‘17; they likely will seek to upgrade this offseason at second base, left field and possibly catcher. But like the Jays, they intend to steer clear of the free-agent starters.  In fact, the Angels are so opposed to rewarding veteran mediocrity, they might even try some of their young relievers as starters next spring.

That is...weird. Unless Richards comes back, Skaggs-Shoemaker-Nolasco-Meyer-Nate Smith just doesn't really do much for me. I am not sure how they go about filling out this pitching staff without going into free agency and probably trading for a Tropeano-type 6th starter to boot. Adding a middling pitcher on a "show-me" deal feels like the bare-minimum (news flash: we are going to need innings next year), so the quote above surprised me. 

I wonder: Maybe the Angels are contemplating moving Guerra? I am not even sure who else would be an option. 

2 hours ago, ScottyA_MWAH said:

But his weaknesses are the same they've always been. Not as open to deploying prospects as he should be. The worst bullpen manager maybe ever. In game tactics are questionable. His personnel choices are at times, laughable.

Funny thing his, Scioscia has been REALLY good at making optimal choices from his bullpen (See: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-playoffs-bullpen-managers-mike-matheny-joe-girardi/). The problem is: he just hasn't had very good options.