Junkballer

The Reds are unlikely to trade Castillo and/or Gray unless as a trade deadline deal. They can still compete in the weak NL Centraland if they were going to trade those guys, barring significant overpayment, it would have happened already. Those two are exactly the type of arms they need, good and cost controlled. That being said, I dont see them keeping up with MIL for long and the Cubs could end up being second in the division by the trade deadline. I do expect one or both to be traded but not until then. I think the Angels will get a pedestrian #3 arm and spend the rest on solidifying RF and the BP until a mid-season trade.

While this is generally true it is also more of a fan perspective than a first-year GMs perspective. With the addition of one decent SP and minor position acquisitions they are already a borderline wildcard team. I would think that Minasian has a 3-year plan, with the first year a goal of playoffs without handcuffing his options in years 2-3. The minor acquisitions hes made so far, coupled with a few pebble splash signings sets him up nicely to get more advantageous value from his prospects after theyve been able to play a half season of minor league ball. I think we will see our TOR come through a trade deadline trade, not pre-season. We may be getting our Gray/Castillo/? once those teams fall out of the playoff race and hopefully see our prospects in a better light. You dont succeed long term without solid asset management and it all about where the Angels end up in season 1, not where they start.

I envision analytics-based rhyme schemes that read like chinese assembly instructions.

Angels 2020 RF summarized in a gif.

I think the solutions are simpler than some of the articles points make, particularly 1 & 2. Moving the rubber back 1 foot and some combination of deadening the ball and increasing outfield territory will put more balls in play while de-emphasizing the HR. It doesn't need to be drastic, but enough to cause guys with borderline power to hit for placement over power. I'd like to see them put more effort into experimentation of the electronic strike zone in the minors. Long term, the standardization of the strike zone will benefit putting balls in play.

His choice of agent, one with little experience, a methodology that fits with his social media inclinations, with atypical fee structures, makes me think that there is something to his statements about wanting to be "in a partnership" with his new club. I interpret this partnership to mean the freedom to be as grandiose as he wants to be and getting whatever he wants in terms of setting up the analytic infrastructure and processes he desires. He strikes me as someone who is carrying wounds from feeling misunderstood by former teammates/coaches. Now feeling vindicated by his success, he seems to want to avoid being in that "misunderstood" position again. Whether all those comments are just to precipitate conversation with clubs to gauge how much they are willing to accommodate his ideas or if it truly is a priority that will override his salary target no one knows but him and his agent, but I suspect it can be a deciding factor. Not the main factor but one that may cement a decision between two teams that have relatively similar proposals.

I suppose they could put Iglesias at 2B and have Fletcher platoon in LF and be a super-utility guy. It could work but it doesn't address their primary needs unless they trade Fletcher, and works against those needs by taking payroll space away from them this year.

Additionally, I think they'll get more value over the known and probable contract terms for Bauer (5-6?) and Rendon (7) than for Cole (9) and Realmuto (5?), especially with the elevated chance that a 30-35 y.o. catcher will decline in performance.

If we signed Cole last year we would be giving Realmuto serious consideration this year.

Not so much Captain Obvious, being that Friedman in no way thinks like what he is suggesting, more like Captain Oblivious.

I doubt that the Quintana signing represents any kind of shift in strategy. More probable that Minasian had a few guys like Q on the radar and Q was the one to accept the price at this time. Minasian's options of Bauer, Gray or Odorizzi are minimally affected by the Q signing and in terms of Bauer, likely slightly enhanced.

Actually Pujols started mentoring him some time ago. Tough Love.

We will become familiar with the term Pie Chucker.

I prefer 2B, although it will likely take a trade that isnt equitable in a trade simulator. For instance, Adell holds more value than Gray in BTV (55-35 approx, and Hendricks is similar) but it will take another significant prospect and change to get the Reds to accept. I would be good someting along the lines of Adell/Vera as long as the other major Angels piece isnt one of the big 3 prospect arms. Minasian needs to use the farm as a bridge to when Pujols/Upton come off the books, which keeps payroll flexibility to capitalize on future trade opportunities, while making at least one significant SP acquisition this off-season.

Thanks Dave. I see what you mean.

Thanks for all the solid work guys. Great read. One thing I could use a little help with is the comments regarding Adells mental makeup as a strong point. I have heard this elsewhere and while I do not have an opinion for or against it, I would like to hear something about why the contributors here feel comfortable with echoing the attribute.

Not sure if it can be taken into account but if so, perhaps his agent is arguing the advertising/merchandising revenue he brings from Asia.

What started as a nice little thread about the Angels filling out a lower tier need has turned out giving me ghetto board flashbacks.

Theres something to be said for not shooting your load too early nor in the wrong direction. Going over the CBT threshold is not something that should happen outside a solid framework and IMO not something that should be done for the goal of making the playoffs, which is where they are at. As you said the Angels are more than one player away and after signing Bauer and Realmuto they still wont be WS favorites. You harp on Artes mistakes, but make no room for the possibility of him adapting based on learning from the consequences of those mistakes, including buying in to a whole-org, longer term perspective espoused by a sound GM. Also, any GM worth his salt has a plan for several years out and knows when to ask for the truck to back up because once over the tax threshold, it is very difficult to remain at the same level of contention without proceeding to higher and higher tax penalties. If you go there, you better damn well know you are on the cusp of a title and have a solid farm to release and trade expiring contracts for the subsequent years or you face a rebuild. Realmuto is not a need for this club, Bauer might be but he is not the only option. I can envision the team better off getting the experience of the playoffs, starting to believe in themselves as a true contender, the farm and scouting being bolstered and developed, and ownership spending over the threshold at that point. Until then, any two solid starting pitchers will help them take that first step into the playoffs and then we can make a more sensible judgement on Artes spending, or lack thereof, from that point.

More like not until 2-3 weeks after he signs elsewhere. He is the first domino to the rest.

Tdawg doesnt work for INO.

I get the sense that AAV is very important to Bauer and he has never to my knowledge said anything about term of contract (other than the one-year stuff). It would be interesting to see how he would respond to a 3year/40m-ish AAV offer backloaded like 30m/40m/50m. With anyone else in his position it would be a ridiculous thought, as he would be leaving a lot of money on the table if injury or performance dropoff precluded a subsequent large contract at age 32, however, he obviously is a different kind of guy. From his one-year contract musings, his choice of agent, a tunnel vision kind of self assurance, he may think differently about term than conventional wisdom would hold. A high AAV contract satisfies the perceived need to one-up Gerrit Cole in one form being that theres no way he can one-up him in a single contract. The idea sound a lot more like something the Dodgers would do than the Angels, but it does take a lot of risk off the board albeit at a high price. Its probably completely unrealistic not only on his side but it would peg the Angels as the CBT threshold for 3 years, but he just strikes me as someone who might do the seemingly unwise thing if it resonates with his own perspective and it intrigues me whether it is something he would consider by the Angels or another team.

I would like to see Minasian make a SP move to set a floor with which he has a baseline to move up from or go a different direction. Getting a plausible #2 sets him up to stay in the Bauer talks, hoping his market declines significantly or he becomes willing to accept a high-AAV/short term contract. If either of those two things dont happen, he can still trade assets for another SP or spend elsewhere looking to pick up pitching at the trade deadline, but either way he has a floor to work with and can present any Bauer offer as a team that has playoff potential with an existing decent rotation.

Sure, limited to the playoffs and possibly the last two weeks of a razor thin playoff race.

No Trevor, those pants do not make your butt look fat.