JBR

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Everything posted by JBR

  1. I’m comfortable being in the camp that says winning this year and next is what matters most and is easier to predict (though also not guaranteed). I totally get that the Angels have been burned before going for it. I’m bummed that we have nothing but one division flag to show for the past decade. My perspective is that Betts and Price make them better in the next couple years, especially in 2020, when they’ll have Trout, Rendon, Ohtani, and Simmons (who could well be gone after) all in their prime. That’s a special core and if you add Betts all of a sudden it’s incredible. In 3-4 years those dudes might well be some combination of gone or in decline, minus Ohtani. It’d be cool if Adell and Marsh and some of the other prospects we’re quality players by that time, but I’d rather have the crazy lineup now and pad the rotation with Price. Would love a bullpen upgrade too to help. What I want to avoid is not fully going for it now and miss out on a special 2020 and then regret it later when the stars start to decline and the kids may or may not be ready to rise.
  2. Can’t say I agree. What’s the value in putting together a team everyone will want to watch with 3 of the top position players in the game and Ohtani pitching and hitting bombs? What’s the value in completing a roster that almost certainly gets into the postseason this year, now? Adding Betts and Price does both. I think there’s tremendous value in winning now. I do respect the point that trading young controllable assets hurts and *might* hurt in the long run. But prospects aren’t guarantees and flags fly forever. Let’s win now.
  3. For me, it boils down to this...what helps the angels win a title more, the next 3 years of Clevinger or the next 7 of Adell? I’m torn, but the more I think about it, the more I think Clevinger will help more. This great class of Angels superstars is ready to win now. Clevinger is a win now player who fills the Angels greatest need today. Adell is a win soon-ish player, probably, but no guaranteed, who plays a position where the Angels have Marsh waiting in the wings. We have less clarity on where the angels will be in 3-5 years, and more clarity on the next two years. Clevinger should help more during that span. Imagine if the Angels don’t go all in during the next two years and don’t win, Trout and Rendon begin to decline, and then the MLB is locked out. A labor lockout isn’t a given, but it’s not far fetched either. Let’s win now while the stars are still stars.
  4. I agree with @tdawg87. I personally think when resources are scarce, especially for an extended period, hoarding feels prudent and wise. It makes perfect sense. However, for me the priority is winning now and I find it hard to imagine, barring injury, that the Angels are better in the next 2 years with Adell than with Clevinger on the roster. Trout, Rendon, and Simba are in their prime now and need to best supporting cast possible to make a push before they start to decline. In 3-5 years it’s not hard to imagine Adell closing the value gap with Clevinger, maybe even surpassing Clevinger, but it’s so hard to project that far out with much confidence. We basically know what Clevinger is now (the front of rotation arm we need), we think Adell will be good (maybe great) but there’s no guarantee, and the window to win is wide open now and might close a bit with every passing year. With that, moving Adell might make a lot of sense, as painful as it’d be.
  5. Baseballtradevalues.com has Clevinger for Adell straight up as fair. In fact, it thinks Cleveland would get more value long term with Adell than with Clevinger ($96M to $83M). That may well be true, however, Adell is unproven while Clevinger is a known commodity and looks like an ace, so I get why that deal probably wouldn’t work in real life. I think I would send Adell for Clevinger in a one for one if it were proposed, but man that would hurt badly. To think we had Clevinger and sent him for Vinnie Pestano Overall, rather than strip the farm of its best pieces for Clevinger, I’d rather to spend our way out of this and trade for a lesser arm like David Price. Why else sell Wilson for salary relief?
  6. I love these questions man. For me, these are the questions I keep wondering for the players that I think will largely determine the Angels’ fate...if there are more yesses than no’s, we may well see Angels games in October: Can they stay heathy? Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Upton, Middleton Can they be a reliable supporting cast? Bundy, Teheran, Bedrosian, Ramirez Can they keep it up? LaStella, Fletcher, Goodwin, Robles, Buttrey Will they take next step? Adell, Rengifo, Sandoval, Barria, Thaiss, Ward Will they meet high expectations? Trout, Rendon, Simmons, Stassi (Fangraphs projects 3 defense fueled WAR)
  7. I love the optimism. Personally, I’d be thrilled if the Angels won 92 games and we’re alive until the last week of the season. That feels like a good challenge for them in light of how competitive their division is and the AL in general.
  8. Price is a decent pitcher at this point, so I think it’s all about what he’d cost. FanGraphs Zips projections have him worth around 2 wins-ish each year for the next three. He is being paid maybe more like a 4-5 win pitcher. Craig Edwards over at Fangraphs says Price is maybe worth $30M, so he’s worth maybe $60M less than he’s making. It’s a big gap at this point so if the Sox send a lot of value with him, or we can swap a bad contract to pay that down, maybe this works. For me, Ryu is the guy. Price is an okay fallback option but I’m not clear on why they would not do everything possible to get Ryu? The pitching market seems to be slowing down a bit.
  9. Honest question: what makes it look like we’ll be outbid on Ryu? I haven’t read that so if there’s a source saying that or reason for that I’d appreciate hearing that if you could share. In my opinion, Ryu still makes a lot of sense, he ha a high ceiling, won’t cost prospects, and with the durability of Bundy and Teheran, Ryu can throw 150IP and still make a major impact. If anything, Ryu makes more sense than ever to me.
  10. I’d also love to see Upton take grounders at 1B in spring training. His age and recent injuries make me think 1B could be a better fit long-term since Ohtani will mainly be at DH. I have no idea how team and player feel about that obviously, but if Marsh and Adell pan out then why block an OF spot with an aging OF who’s lost a step? Moving Upton to 1B could be a boost to 1B and OF simultaneously.
  11. It’d be so great to get a true masher at 1B. Even limited older 1B like Encarnacion or Smoak (statcast indicated he hit better than his #s suggested) might be good options if they’re reasonably priced. However, I can’t help but wonder if the Angels will free up any funds to upgrade 1B given the significant need in the rotation. I could see them simply staying the course at 1B and seeing what sticks during spring training between guys like Pujols, LaStella, Thaiss, etc. It's hard to imagine the Angels moving on from Pujols, though it seems reasonable, so in my mind it’s sort of like, what combination will they run out of Pujols + ? = 2020 1B.
  12. I’m with you that I don’t feel great about selling prospects to pay off bad contracts because the Angels system isn’t considered to be loaded on the whole, though not barren like it used to be. However, the system seems heavy on SS prospects. Even after this trade, 6 of their top 30 prospects are listed as SS, so it seems like they dealt from a position of strength. The move seems reasonable enough in that light and for me, if they use this money to sign Ryu, I’ll quickly forget about Wilson.
  13. It’s sort of crazy how many ways they could reasonably fill the catcher position. With pitching I think either Cole or Strasberg is as close to a must as I can remember (if contending in 2020 is the objective, which I don’t know why it wouldn’t be). Yet for catcher, it’s wide open. It seems like maybe the route might involve not overpaying either in salary or prospects, focusing on defense first, and getting creative with platoon splits or just not concerning oneself too much with the catcher’s bat so long as the defense is good. Fascinating to think about, thanks for this summary!
  14. Thank you for this thorough and thoughtful analysis. I am with you and think Fletcher at 2B sounds entirely reasonable and has enough upside built in to work. I particularly like him in the #9 hole if they slot someone else who can get on base for trout at lead off. Fletcher seems like a nice bat to turn over the lineup with some momentum heading into the big bats. Maybe hit Pujols 8, Fletcher 9, and lead off Ohtani...a guy can dream. If they stay with Fletcher at 2B they can focus resources on meeting other more pressing areas of need, like the rotation and catching.
  15. I wonder if Upton would play 1B to save his legs. If so, then maybe the Angels can keep Adell and Marsh to surround Trout in the near future, and purchase a 1-yr placeholder for RF, maybe Calhoun? Sadly it would then be time to say goodbye to Albert. Just no need to roster him if Upton can play first. For rotation, sign Porcello as a buy low on the potential that the change of scenery will do some good. He eats innings consistently and has shown much better results in past than 2019. The value of someone reliably taking the ball every fifth day can’t be overstated with the injury risks on this rotation. For lineup, get Donaldson and his 4-5 WAR in there. Now you have tons of infield flexibility. That way Cozart can play (backup really) his more natural position up the middle. Maybe this is going more expensive that Arte wants but it’s hard to imagine the Angels winning a wild card spot without spending huge. The gaps on the roster are just too big.
  16. I totally agree. If Cole and Strasberg go elsewhere, then it’s Rendon and an arm like Keuchel, or bust. Angels may have no choice but to spend their way out of their mediocrity since they’ve been unwilling to blow up the team and rebuild, when they probably could have a few years ago. Continuing to slowly wait for the farm system to deliver as mike trout’s prime slips away and team control of stars like Simmons ends is no sure bet to pan out and could alienate the fan base in the process. This free agent class is terrific and the Angels have to get one or two big stars or risk falling out of contention and out of favor with fans.