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Cosmo_Kramer

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Everything posted by Cosmo_Kramer

  1. Cosmo_Kramer
    Deal makes sense for both sides, IMO. Rays can play Jose Martinez at 1B/DH, and they get 3 years of control. They must be really high on Arozarena. Pick upgrade. Cards get Liberatore. Draft pick is just a swap. Jose wasn't a great fit. Catcher has potential. Seems reasonable.
  2. Cosmo_Kramer
    It's a curve. But it is also "generally" linear.
  3. Cosmo_Kramer
    Oh I see now. I read his old articles on fg. Yes, teams have acted as you described.
  4. Cosmo_Kramer
    Yeah. Though I'm not particularly high on Rengifo, for example, which is why my proposal was a bit more aggressive.
  5. Cosmo_Kramer
    I thought people understood it wasn't linear a long time ago. Next they'll say people finally understand that reliever war isn't particularly useful...
  6. Cosmo_Kramer
    Exactly. So I think both sides have some incentive to get an extension done, but it depends on the price.
  7. Cosmo_Kramer
    Him accepting the QO would yield good value in a vacuum, but it would probably prevent the Angels from making bigger moves next year. Allocating ~$18 million to him when Pujols is still on the books is a crunch.
  8. Cosmo_Kramer
    I think that's what will actually happen
  9. Cosmo_Kramer
    I just don't think 3/45 is realistic, which is why I started at 4/60, especially if he has a good year. But I'm high on him in 2020.
  10. Cosmo_Kramer
    For those interested in Statcast fielding metrics, here is a white paper by Tom Tango that walks through the basic methodology. It's pretty long, but it's well written and easy to understand. Would love to talk about any of the details Edit: https://mobile.twitter.com/tangotiger/status/1214948383611187200 History_of_the_Fielding.pdf
  11. Cosmo_Kramer
    One thing about Simmons is the loaded SS market coming up. 2021 FA class Simmons Semien Profar Gregorius 2022 FA class Lindor Correa Baez Story Seager 2021 is relatively thin, so maybe Simmons gets extra attention. On the other hand, 2022 is loaded (for now), so maybe the 2021 market is less aggressive. Hard to predict. But I think ~$15 million is fair value for Simmons.
  12. Cosmo_Kramer
    I might do something like this: 2020 - $10 million 2021 - $10 million 2022 - $17.5 million 2023 - $17.5 million 2024 - $17.5 million 2025 - $17.5 million vesting option ($2.5 mil buyout)
  13. Cosmo_Kramer
    Mutual options are basically pointless in practice. They're never exercised.
  14. Cosmo_Kramer
    Which is why I think they might do it. They could reduce his $15 million this year to like $10 million then add a few more years with increasing salaries to line up with Pujols and Upton
  15. Cosmo_Kramer
    He's making a little over $15 million this year, but his AAV is closer to $8 million. An extension where they shift some of that $15 million to a later year would create immediate cost savings, but it would increase his AAV for the luxury tax calculation. And they may be trying to preserve tax room for a pitching acquisition. I'd offer 4/60 or 4/60 +1/15 as vesting option or maaaybe 5/75. 6/90 would be his remaining contract.
  16. Cosmo_Kramer
    For projections in general, you just take historical data and apply various trends/adjustments. The different projection systems use different historical data and/or different trends/adjustments. But the overall process is similar. So your thought process is pretty close. And as you mentioned, there are complications when data is limited.
  17. Cosmo_Kramer
    Yeah he currently belongs in the minors. But he was really good for a stretch there before originally getting hurt.
  18. Cosmo_Kramer
    Happens to me too! Though I also use the multilingual keyboard, which means even weirder little mistakes
  19. Cosmo_Kramer
    Not to mention that Castro is a better pitch framer, which is probably a more valuable skill, relatively, given the state of our rotation.
  20. Cosmo_Kramer
    Certainly not defensively though
  21. Cosmo_Kramer
    I think Jimmy Nelson could be a great signing. Extremely low risk with an incentive based deal. But the Angels wanted a higher floor, and that's understandable.
  22. Cosmo_Kramer
    Edit: After looking, Gleyber, Giolito, Moncada, and Wil Myers are closest recent examples.
  23. Cosmo_Kramer
    So uhh how many days until spring training?
  24. Cosmo_Kramer
    They also have team options attached for a couple FA years, generally. Cost control and cost savings, but you need to balance with risk. It's an interesting strategy, especially for smaller revenue clubs.
  25. Cosmo_Kramer
    Idk if I would classify it as lunacy, but there are certainly arguments in each direction.
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