DCAngelsFan

After years of the Angels ignoring internationals, not even bothering with obvious talents like Darvish and Iwakuma, I was pretty sour about all this - based on past experience, we wouldn't even bother sending him a postcard. I remember reading about Ohtani coming out of high school, wanting to play here. And of course, you kinda daydream about a kid like that, but you knew if he came here, we wouldn't be players, he'd likely wear pinstripes. So, to me, it was a big win that we even made a run at him. Pretty much no matter how this all turns out, I feel better about the Angels these days than I have in a long time - we're no longer the franchise that made one of the worst trades in baseball history, and several of the worst free agent signings, etc - we're the team that not only drafted and has the best player in baseball, we're finally the team that's building on that, making intelligent moves to become a better organization, in drafting, developing, going international, being creative - which makes a better team, year-in, year-out. Ohtani had to consider that in making his decision - "what kind of team, what kind of organization is this?" He had his choice, and he chose the Angels. That means a lot, actually. You mentioned attending games in Japan - you know what would be a riot? If Angels stadium, overrun, perhaps, by Japanese fans, jumped and rocked and sounded like a Japanese baseball stadium once every six days, with the singing and the chants and the live bands - my closest experience is watching Brazilian national team soccer matches - which are a total blast. Would make the Rally Monkey days look like a warm-up act ... p.s. - I'm with you on the splitter - some of the other reports had that a less effective pitch - and some of the videos seems like it's inconsistent. But I've seen plenty that couldn't be hit with a tennis racket - late-break, huge movement, basically unhittable.

A few years ago? You mean before 2016, when the new TV contract kicked in? According to Forbes, you're *making* $68M / year, and the team is estimated to be worth $1.75B -Angels baseball could "lose" $30-40m a year until Mike Trout checks into a nursing home, and not even make a dent, b/c I don't think you're saying you'd be "losing" $40m" a year, but paying a $40m luxury tax each year - not the same thing. Anyway, I wanted an additional 2 years on the first extension - the time to extend him is this season. It's gonna get weird, though - it Otani is everything we hope, we might be wanting to sign him to a long-term deal after next season, too - still in the Pujols Peak Pain Period ...

That expressions on those faces remind me of the Iraqi National Soccer team when they returned from losing a match, and Uday gave them a "Welcome home, losers - now, which fingers will you miss least?" speech.

Not "huge" and not terrible - but these trend and age says his best years are behind him. And as Dochalo said, he's turned down the concept of the Darvish deal - he wants *more*. And, really, the Cubs didn't appear to have one bit of interest in him the entire offseason - that check-in story doesn't seem "right" to me - maybe a Boras planted story? Most GM's seem really skeptical, and staying away. What do *they* know (or suspect) that we don't?

He's going to be some future cautionary tale about paying someone for his past production, not the production the club he signed with actually gets (and not to beat dead horses, but the Angels have more of those tales - at least in excess dollars spent - than, arguably, any other club in baseball.) There's almost no chance he comes close to earning his likely contract - the contract I'd be willing to give him would give Boras a stroke, not even worth making the phone call.

The one thing Mike seems to be good at is keeping a stable and relaxed clubhouse. And yet, those appalling slow starts in April are just a little too common with him - if the team is less-ready to play in April than everyone else - again - and miss the playoffs - again, definitely time for a graceful exit (and after taking so much money from the Angels, he owes them a graceful "I'm retiring to spend more time with my family" exit.) To the original question - Eppler has banked a *lot* of credibility with me since he's been here - I don't care if he names a robotic Leo Durocher or a French Poodle as the new manager, I'm gonna give him the benefit of the doubt ...

Flu deaths are chronically under-reported, but some years, are estimated to exceed 50,000 in the US. It's not just the old, young, or chronically ill - flu can cause an inflammatory response that spins out of control, and can kill otherwise-healthy people in hours. People seriously underestimate how dangerous flu can be ...

Twins are reportedly trying to acquire, but apparently are finding the cost in prospects too dear. It's a team-friendly contract, with the options, and you're right, he could reach "ace" level - which is what's been said about him for years, but hasn't quite achieved. One thing in a long-term valuation - he's always had a high workload - his age and innings and pitching style are starting to reach the point where I'd start to be concerned (not that he's shown *any* signs of breaking down - but a guy who throws 200 innings year, and now throws a slider 44% of the time? can't help but make you nervous if you're looking to get 3 years of value from him.) I think he's slightly underperformed his talent -- but think on this club, in this park, you're right, he could finally turn that corner - I think he probably struggles a bit on bad teams. But all that potential, and that team-friendly contract means he's a valuable commodity - the price in prospects would be, to me, intolerable - our farm is finally showing a pulse, and I'm a little flinchy at the thought of emptying it for "one" player, no matter who it is.

This story has me really excited to see him play - he has tools, he's still maturing, and he seems like a great character guy (passing up a 9-figure contract to get here early to play for league minimum? I mean, "character" doesn't begin to touch it ...) As an long-suffering time Angels fan, of course, such optimistic top-of-the-world stories scare me ....

145 IP, 2.90 ERA, 150 K, 50 BB .250/.310/.460 - 18 homeruns (kinda optimistic on power - he's older (23), stronger, and healthier, and until pitchers find his weaknesses, will punish mistakes) combined WAR ~6, ROY, WS MVP runner-up The interesting thing is his age - he's well short of his peak - his real power, both pitching and hitting, may well lie ahead of him.

Geez, reading his quotes about him personally scouting him and finding him Major-League ready and listing all his incredible attributes - I'm embarrassed for DiPoto over that. And the amount of money - we were bidding against ourselves, no doubt - and more than twice what Vlad Guerrero, Jr signed for. And putting us in penalty for subsequent years. All bad., really bad. But the thing that made it unforgivable to me, look at what other teams did when they went into the penalty - once you've exceeded the pool amount, you might as well go crazy and sign everyone under the sun, like the Yanks and Red Sox did - the only additional penalty is a dollar penalty. Yankees signed 10 of the top 30 prospects that year, the Red Sox signed 40+ players including Moncada, and iirc, spent like $70m - I think we signed Baldoquin and one other. So, he turned the mistake of Baldoquin into disaster by "stopping." Basically, he mishandled that in every conceivable way. I cringe over that - I try to comfort myself with the thought that those GM's and baseball guys who mocked us that day (and they did) - they (mostly) passed on Trout.

Can't wait to see this guy - but I'm not sure about that "65" forkball - that thing is pure evil (when it's "on", at any rate.) But, oh, man, I just had to look down the page to see Vladimir Jr ... I don't think I'd said "eff you, Dipoto" today, but seeing that took care of that ... An 80 bat?? An 80-effin bat?? meh ...

I think a lot of the "hate" directed at Erstad was about his contract - (remember Rob Neyer's obsession with Erstad? Couldn't write a column without taking a swipe at him - I thought Erstad must've screwed his wife, wiped himself on the curtains, and took his dog, the way he wrote about him) But you're right, looking back at WAR and the cost/win over the contract, he arguably had surplus value - he produced 32.6 bWAR for a salary of $45,725,000 or about $1.4m/WAR, in retrospect, even ab it of a bargain when the cost/win was $4- to 6m over his career. Kind of amusing that WAR could be used to show he was better than we thought. I mean, yeah, as he started to break down, it was easy to get frustrated with his deficiencies and injuries - playing 1B with his poor bat in 04 and -5, and then barely playing his last year, well, he was a guy that stayed a year or two too long. But does 2002 happen without him? Probably not. Hard to hate on anyone on the team that gave me the best baseball season, probably ever.

When virtually every starting pitcher on the roster has health concerns, are you certain we don't need depth starters? Gonna bet 2018 on that? Richards - recovering from torn UCL, stem cell therapy vice surgery. Heaney - returning from TJ, after stem cell therapy failed Skaggs - missed 3 months with injury, has pitched more than 100 innings once in 5 years, and despite his promise, so far is an injury-prone back-end starter. Tropeano - returning from TJ Ramirez - Recovering from partially torn ligament, used stem cell injection in lieu of surgery Shoemaker - Returning from forearm surgery Otani - short Japanese season, plus elbow strain and ankle surgery Agreed that Vargas probably isn't a fit for us (he outperformed his peripherals, to be sure) mostly because if we need someone like him due to multiple injuries or rehab failures, we won't know that until long after he's signed elsewhere. Anyway, I thought the topic was "buy low free agents" for *any* team?

As mentioned, Garcia might be considered especially given his GB% - I was thinking a possible conversion to reliever, maybe he can tick that FB velocity up. But I'd need an explanation of that increase in the walk rate and assurance that it would come back down. Also mentioned - why no apparent interest in Vargas? Seems a pretty good depth option for anyone, including us, if the price is right.

I remember reading it described as a "Nintendo slider" or something like - I thought it a perfect description, it was, for a time, practically unhittable - his K/9 rate that year was 20.65, and in facing 21 batters, struck out 13 of them.

I know back in those days, we couldn't afford many games - and when we went, we'd always make sure Ryan was pitching - there was nothing like him - can still remember the sound of his fastball hissing through the air and popping the catcher's mitt, and hearing it echo. Trout and Guerrero are certainly worthy - but as a pitcher, Ryan was front and center for half of the game - and for that half of the game, he could dominate like few others - even when he couldn't find the strike zone

I see what you did there ...

We do have to keep in mind that while they say 50-60% of first rounders might make the major leagues, looking at most in recent history, a good percentage of those perform at no better than replacement level. It's not so much that we drafted someone unexpected in the first round - we'd drafted lots of surprises with high picks - in 2010, hard to equal the futility of Clarke, Lindsey, and Bolden. What made those particularly egregious was that publicly available scouting reports at the time made them sound just what they turned out to be. What made Ward's draftso memorable was our Front Office's over-the-top reaction that left everyone else thinking they'd lost their minds. And everyone reading the scouting report, again, said wtf - are you idiots sure you drafted the right guy? On the heels of Baldoquin - where it was also immediately apparent that no one else saw what DiPoto saw - I think that was kind of the final straw - the point where even the most deluded optimistic fan had to face up to the fact that DiPoto, and most of his front office, had no ability to evaluate / project talent. And we were looking at a long, empty road ahead of us - we were in the wastelands, and there was no reason to think it was gonna get better. None of that was, and is, Ward's fault - what was he supposed to do, refuse to sign because he was drafted too high?

Have to wonder, is SLC the best place for him? If we want him to refine his curve, in particular, is 4000' asl the place to do it? Wouldn't Mobile be a better choice?

I dunno - I had a slightly different take on it, I had concerns that it was the wrong trade at the wrong time - that we gave up a pretty significant trade chip to get someone who didn't address our more compelling needs - I think I probably said something like "We just got shiny new rims for our ride; ignoring the fact that the engine won't start." Felt like a certain opportunity cost there. Of course, I feel much better about things since Newcomb hasn't progressed as well as I'd hoped at the time, and Simmons has been better than I expected. But you can make a good value trade that's the "wrong trade, at the wrong time" - those aren't mutually exclusive.

Arggh - that's *two* daggers ... Effin' DiPoto - that Baldoquin signing, plus his making the worst of the situation**, was my first inkling that he was full of shit ... ** once in the penalty, other clubs go crazy signing players - making the most of going into the penalty box - the pain come the following year in restrictions on the bonus pool - so, for example, iirc, Red Sox signed a bunch more guys including Moncada when they went over their pool, and Yanks signed like 5 of the top 10 internationals 1 year - DiPoto signs Baldoquin, then stood pat, didn't do a damn thing. Moron.

The advent of how we get our entertainment is certainly a factor these days - if you look at how people view TV these days, how much of is is watched live, over-the-air? (And of that tiny percentage, how much of that demographic is something advertisers care about?) People are becoming used to having every form of entertainment available to them, when they want it - movies, music, tv series - streamed on-demand. That - and the declines in NFL attendance (I saw Redskins tickets going for $6 last weekend) must certainly give MLB pause. Will future fans accustomed to getting their entertainment when and where they want sit in front of tv's to watch live baseball? And if not, how will they become fans? And of course, there's the penalties of exceeding the CBT and signing free agents. The loss of picks and international bonus pool money for signing a FA who was offered a QO has an effect - teams are seeing that as another, and necessary way to create a pipeline of cost-controlled talent to their club. The big money teams already *have* big payrolls - they're not sitting around with $200m of salary space - they're bumping up against the threshhold already. The length of the contracts demanded (and signed in the past) must certainly give pause - paying someone a mega-contract for production they achieved for another club doesn't really translate - I mean, who wants to be stuck paying someone over $100m for years of a replacement player? (cough, cough) And that's the other thing - the player are all at or past their prime - which means it's all downhill from here in terms of results. With revenue sharing, teams don't have to "win or go broke" - they can be patient -- or cheap - with few consequences. I think these are all factors, but perhaps none of them definitive - I think the most important factor is that analytics and the objective valuations that result are letting teams look at these players in dispassionate and unbiased ways - which may have been true for years, but old-school baseball guys are either finally accepting of these tools, or have retired and replaced by those who treat roster building as an economics equation and not based on "guys that look like ballplayers."

Umm ...

Arrieta, nope, his trajectory says he's gonna crater sooner rather than later. Would actually have liked to pick up Chatwood - think he was a a bit of a steal for the Cubs (for a MLB FA, of course) A GB pitcher with our infield in our park would have been nice. Doesn't look like there's going to be much on the rental market this season, only would want Keuchel, and he (almost certainly) won't be available, unless Houston implodes. But speaking of GB pitchers ... Think we're just going to have get to October, and if we're in the 1-game, ride the hot hand.