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gurn67

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Posts posted by gurn67

  1. Blown early leads. I started looking at games in which the Angels' offense staked they starting pitcher to a nice early lead, but the pitching couldn't hold it. 

    I found 5 in the first 14 games. If the Angels had won even 2 of these games, they would have been 9-5 to start the season instead of 7-7. I know they say games don't matter in April, but there is a big difference in the confidence of a team that starts 9-5 versus a team that starts 7-7 and blew a bunch of games they should have won. That doesn't even include blowing the game on Opening Day. The Angels had a 78% chance, or higher, of winning in 13 of their first 14 games with just a blowout 11-2 loss against Seattle mixed in. They won 50%. That trend has continued most of the season.

    These percentages are based on historical averages of teams in the same situation. Good and bad teams alike.

    These are all early games they lost. They had a 78% chance of winning on Opening Day

    April 7 Toronto 3-1 lead in the 4th 85% chance of winning

    April 9 Toronto 6-0 lead in the 4th 98% chance of winning

    April 10 Washington 4-1 lead in the 3rd. 83% chance of winning

    April 14 at Boston 2-0 lead in the 2nd 79% chance of winning

    April 15 at Boston 4-0 lead in the 1st 82% chance of winning. 

    I gave up looking after that. 

  2. With the incredible display of getting hits with runners in scoring position that this team has displayed since July 28th I can certainly see why he had such confidence that someone would come up with a clutch hit. lol

    At least if the guy is on 3rd, they might score on a wild pitch or a passed ball. Even though the odds of that are low, they're still higher than the chance that ANY Angels' batter could have possibly driven in a runner from 2nd base with a hit in that situation. In 45 years of watching this team, I have never seen a group of hitters that were totally incompetent at getting a hit with a runner in scoring position over this length of time (3.5 weeks now). Maybe the 1999 team that quit on Terry Collins. I don't think they were even this bad.

  3. John Olerud had very similar tools. Never played a game in the minor leagues and had an OPS of just below .800 his first few years. MLB average OPS for 1B this season is .772. Considering the Angels have gotten a .674 OPS this year and a .614 OPS last year, if the kid can stay around .750 for his first couple of seasons while he's figuring things out, it would be a big improvement. As long as he's able to draw walks consistently, he should be fine. If he starts swinging at everything thrown to him like most of the guys on this team, he can always be sent down for more seasoning.

  4. Some surprising stats The Angels are 27th in OPS this season by their first basemen, but 11th in RBI's. The Astros are 28th in OPS. Abreu's been a bust, but he does hit will with RISP .827 OPS

    Angels are 29th in walks 28th in OBP. Schanuel should help them there. He's got some of the craziest BB/K ratios I've ever seen.

    138 BB to 57 K in college and 21 to 10 in his brief time in the minor leagues. That's Wade Boggs like numbers. With the Red Sox, Boggs walked 1004 times and only struck out 470 times. 

  5. I'd rather go to the post season and not win it all than have 8 seasons in a row playing no meaningful games in September, let alone October. I really enjoyed the 2004-2015 period even though it always ended in disappointment. It made my Springs and Summers much more enjoyable.

    I was looking up the Dodgers' worst stretch 1989 to 2003. They didn't win a single post season game during that period, and only made the playoffs twice. However, they had a .525 winning pct. (85 wins in a 162 game season) 9 of those 14 years and only 3 losing seasons

    Since 1939, they have only had back to back losing seasons twice. 1967 & 1968 which afterwards they built the foundation for the great teams of the 70's and early 80's. 1986 & 1987, but won the World Series in 1988.

    As much as I hate the Dodgers, I certainly cannon disparage them for winning almost every single year, but not winning it all. 

    Losing 8 years in a row really sucks. Especially when there doesn't seem any blueprint whatsoever to form a foundation of winning baseball in the future. Getting nothing for the most valuable trade asset in team history, and making things worse by trading assets away from a terrible farm system to chase a 1 in 10 chance to make the post season was asinine.

  6. 13 minutes ago, TroutField said:

    All these shitty stats and prolonged losing are making me long for the off-season. 

    They have too many proven hitters for this to continue for the rest of the season. Ever since that Detroit double header, they have been unable to hit with RISP almost every game. Prior to that, they had scored at least 4 runs in 13 out of 14 games. Since then, they've only scored 4 or more runs in 4 out of 19 games. They won tonight, but it was because of the pitching. It's not too often you're going to beat the Rangers in Arlington with only two solo home runs. They just can't seem to put any sort of rallies together at all.

  7. 20 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

    Won two of the last four in Texas.

    Good pitching in both of those wins

    First goal (winning record) is still well within reach.   22-18 record gets them to 82-80, which considering the ridiculous number of injuries would be a solid improvement over 2022.

    Schedule slowly gets easier the rest of the month, and then September sees them having 16 of 28 games at home.

    Offense needs to get its’ act together.  56 runs in past 19 games just doesn’t cut it, and partly explains the 6-13 record.

    After tonight, the team OPS has dropped to .597 for the month of August. That's dead last in all of MLB.

  8. 35 minutes ago, CaliAngel said:

    Look at this guy, king of the castle all high and mighty about his ballpark wiener purchases.

    What do you expect for a buck? I told my friend here that if he wanted to go to the game tonight, I would drive and get him a ticket for 6 bucks. He asked me "Are they good seats?" I said they're in the stadium, what do you expect? Box seats behind home plate?

  9. 1 hour ago, fan_since79 said:

    Don't worry, Rendon will be back next year sometime. They should have the internal bleeding thing cleared up by then. Better equip him with some body armor going forward.

    There will be plenty of at bats at DH next year to try to keep him healthy. He might actually somehow make it to 250 plate appearances if they keep him off the field. He'll still manage to foul a ball of his foot, or pull a hammy running out a ground ball to short, and be out for 2 months anyway.

  10. 57 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

    A fun fact I learned about that last year: they are not the same hot dogs that they sell for normal price. 
     

    So you’re getting an even worse product than the normal crappy ballpark hot dog. 

    I assumed that, but I haven't had a ballpark hot dog in at least 10 years. 

    I'll get one and if it's really bad, there's always Buc-ee's on my way home. 24 hour barbecue.

  11. Seeing Seager get yet another 2 out RBI hit against the Angels made me want to look up some stats. Maybe it's just because it seems like this team just can't seem to put rallies together like the teams facing them do.

    The Angels offensively are by far the best team in MLB with no outs. It's not even close. They are 1st in hits, home runs, RBI's, batting average, OBP, Slg, OPS. total bases. So, they obviously have guys who can hit when the pressure is not on. However, pitchers pitch differently when there is 1 out, and especially when there is 2 outs. 

    I'm going to compare the Angels' RBI's this year vs. the Rangers.

    0 outs

    Angels 169

    Rangers 139

    1 out

    Angels 197

    Rangers 260

    2 outs when the pitchers are really bearing down because 2 out Runs are so demoralizing when you're just one out away from getting out of an inning..

    Angels 189

    Rangers 255

     

    Angels pitchers are pretty much the opposite of the hitters. They do great with 0 outs, and suck with 1 or 2 outs. I couldn't find runs allowed, or ERA, so I'm just going to go with batting average and Whip

    Angels pitchers with 0 outs

    BA 4th best

    Whip 18th best (walking way too many hitters which leads to extra runs being scored later)

    1 out

    BA 24th

    Whip 25th

    2 outs when the pitchers really need to bear down and get the team out of an inning.

    BA 22nd

    Whip 27th 

    This team seems filled mostly with guys who don't perform well under pressure. The statistics show that anyway.

  12. 6 guys in the starting lineup win under .600 OPS this month. Escobar is only over that number because he hasn't had enough at bats to drop under. The only guy with a decent number of at bats with an OPS over .670 if Ohtani.

    Montgomery is exactly what you want in a number 5 starter. He keeps his team in the game. He's only had 4 starts out of 23 in which he gave up more than 3 earned runs. The Cardinals and Rangers are only 8-15 in his starts because he's getting no run support at all this season. However, the Angels are in town, so I'm sure that will change.

  13. 47 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

    Uhh Phil, this franchise has been a train wreck since 2016, and the seed was planted in 2008 when Moreno gave the GM job to J. Pierrepont Reagins, a know nothing much like the guy in How To Succeed in Business Without Trying.

    Reagins' hiring allowed Arte and Sosh to make the important decisions. Reagins was the inexpensive figurehead doing the stuff they weren't interested in doing.

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