LAAMike

12 minutes ago, st1ckboy said:

2 min ago

New York has more than 20,000 positive cases

More than 20,000 people across the state of New York have tested positive for coronavirus, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced in a news conference Monday.

“In absolute terms, New York has by far the greatest need in the nation,” he said.

Here's a breakdown of the latest numbers in the state:

• 20,875 positive cases, including 5,707 new cases.
• 16,000 people were tested overnight.
• To date, there have been around 78,000 people tested. About 25% of all testing nationwide is being done in New York.
• 13% of positive cases are being hospitalized (has gone has high as 20, 21% previously). 24% of that 13% require hospital ICU beds.

These numbers bear out the 2.2 million deaths I mentioned in my original post on the million dollar cost per live saved (covers both loss of income and keeping businesses afloat so that you have a job when this ends and the medical costs). Assuming that 80% of the US population is tested and 26.7 % are positive and 13% of these are hospitalized and 24% of those hospitalized require an ICU bed, then that number is 2.199 Million.  I have not seen how many ICU patients ultimately recover but I cannot imagine that the percentage is that high.  I arrived at my figures by looking at the Chinese data applied to the US and the data from NY is used in the above.  So the ballpark figure of over two million deaths from Covid-19 appears to have some statistical basis and bear in mind that this 2 million plus figure does not deduct the nearly 900,000 deaths per year from Cardio Vascular Disease and the regular flu.  So the cost may be close to 2.0 Million dollars for each life saved which includes the economic relief package also.  Seems like a high price to pay, but let's see if the data from the 15 day stay at home program produces further data before deciding.  

2 hours ago, angelinkc said:

Great points and stay safe.  I have hard time believing all this just about saving lives anyway. We can save 3000 lives a day for free but nobody seems to care about the 40 million babies since roe v wade. things may change but we are losing about the same lives per day as the flu. we dont  get daily updates on the flu. 

Actually the point I was trying to make is that the potential deaths from Covid-19 appear to at least double the annual death toll in the US (which includes the regular flu).  

16 minutes ago, Blarg said:

In the end, the economy is an imaginary concept that people have accepted but it is not necessarily any truth. People living, that is really the responsibility of society, not generation of wealth. Take care Mike, wouldn't want you be a statistic of greed. 

I totally agree that society has a responsibility to avoid the loss of life and not to the generation of wealth, but the loss of wealth from losing your job is being caused by the government's attempts to manage this problem through shutdowns and the loss of this income for all laid off folks is a cost that may be too great to bear.   Let's revisit this in a week or so when we can begin to see the effect of these stay in place orders. 

At some point in time, the cost for treatment and to the economy for shutting down will exceed what any sane person would spend to save a life.  We have 2.878 Million deaths per year in the US (population 330 Million) or less than 1% (actually .0087%).  One third of these deaths are from cardio vascular disease, 60,000 from drug overdoses and 38,000 from auto accidents, etc.  Taking the Chinese statistics and multiplying the total cases by 6 (this is the estimate of total cases to reported cases claimed by experts), we get a death rate of .0067%.  Using this death percentage we get a total for the US of 2.2 Million more deaths than we had before Covid-19(again bearing in mind that heart disease is a factor in these deaths but is not being deducted).  We seem very willing to spend over two trillion dollars to prevent these Covid-19 deaths and to help repair the damage to the economy  of these emergency business shut downs and stay in place orders.  2.2 Trillion dollars represents one million dollars for every death from Covid-19.  The US people are all willing to endure a couple of weeks of self quarantine and then assess where we are, but this talk of shutting down the economy for months does not seem practical.  From a personal standpoint, I am 74, have restricted lung disease and also Cardio Vascular Disease (having had two strokes and a heart attack) so I will probably be included in these death statistics in a few years anyhow.  Let's not ruin the economy for everyone else (including my wife and children).  

11 hours ago, Lou said:

5. What have you been doing during this time of quarantine.

since there is no option for reading a book, I chose catching up on shows 

What are any shows that you have liked?

3 minutes ago, Jason said:

I got it covered 

How was this not mentioned in the wipe once or twice blog?

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

Nobody with any intelligence believes abortion is an issue this election. It is wrote law and up to States to determine their position, not the office of the president. 

I think that many Democrat voters will wish to elect a POTUS that will appoint more liberal justices.  This makes the election of the POTUS and the control of the Senate a critical issue in the November election.  

5 hours ago, Blarg said:

How come you can't understand the basics of a sitting president having the home field advantage? Unhinge your prejudices and read what is written, not what you want to interpret. 

Trump has the advantage of being in the office and the country is economically stable. Can you understand that? 

If so then you can probably make that next step, he doesn't have to do much more than say, see, all is good under my watch, you have jobs and increases in wages. Those guys want to wreck this with increased taxation. 

The democrats have to convince the public their tax and spend policies for health care and education is better than their present condition. All of the pressure is on the Democrats to offer a better life. 

It is an uphill battle for the DNC and they managed to let all the air out of the tires in their campaign bus by backing a senile old man that is going to embarrass himself in the debates. Instead of going young and vital they went aged out Boomers. It is not seperating themselves from the Republicans.

The economy is going to own the debate floor. 

 

 

It also does not help that 75% of Americans only support abortions in the first trimester.  Democrats are clearly not aligned with most Americans on this issue.  The SCOTUS ruling on the Louisiana abortion restrictions (no matter which way this issue is decided) will also be released before the November general election and will further politicize this issue.   

31 minutes ago, angelinkc said:

He needs 1 million infected and 1k dead before he takes action. No sense in worrying about it until then

The 2019 flu season resulted in 16,000 deaths and 280,000 hospitalizations and an unknown number of actual infections.  Despite these numbers and despite the fact that flu shots are free or at most $5.00, about half of the US population does not get the annual flu shot.  So, half of the US population is not that concerned about the flu.  How is Coronavirus that different from the annual flu?  

I also enjoyed Biden's attack of the Vegans.  Thank God his sister/wife was there to protect Joe.  

Matt Walsh had the blog of the night regarding Biden's confusion about his wife/sister - "By calling his sister his wife, Joe Biden is making a bold play for Ilhan Omar's supporters."

10 hours ago, True Grich said:

 

Only gave up one hit which he then picked off.  Great return from Injury after he started 3-0 last year. 

2 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

Latino Americans will decide what happens tomorrow.  If they turn out Sanders will have a great day.  Biden hasn’t even been campaigning in the Super Tuesday states.  He has a dog shit non existent ground game.  All he has is the MSM propping him up.  Motherfucker is circling the dementia drain every time he shows his face.  Lets see how it goes once it’s him vs. Bernie over the next 4 months.  Not great.  He can’t hide among the others then. 
 

Also, Liz Warren has proven herself an enemy of the left. 

Latino Americans have given Bernie the kind of support that Hilary got in 2016.  Big win on Tuesday for Bernie.  The only fly in the ointment is that it will take several days for the California vote to finally be tabulated with all the challenged and absentee ballots.  California's voting process will make Iowa look well run.  Remember in 2018 all of the former Republican Congressional seats that shifted to the Democratic column days after the election?  

1 hour ago, Spirit said:

Now it's Warren's turn.

 

 

Why is Gabbard still hanging around?

15 hours ago, JarsOfClay said:

In other words, you want Trump to get re-elected.

It appears that each of the 5 remaining Democratic candidates will receive about 19-20% of the Mayor Pete support.  

I have been very impressed with the Sanders campaign to gain hispanic/latino support. Bernie virtually lost to Hilary in 2016 solely on his poor performance with this community but learned his lesson and now has the strongest program of all the candidates in wooing this segment of the electorate.  

Am I the only AW poster that finds it unusual that the road to the Democratic nomination is through black voters?  The black control of the Democratic party is disproportionate to their percentage of the population.  Nationally the black population is 14.6% while in California it stands at 6.67%.  So a 28% black state like South Carolina gives Joe Biden new life?  I was unhappy to see Joe Biden pander to this black vote at the last Democrat debate by proclaiming he would appoint a black woman to the Supreme Court. Whatever happened to the concept of appointing the most qualified person (be they black, female, male, gay, Asian or white)? 

5 hours ago, st1ckboy said:

Barr takes control of legal matters of interest to Trump, including Stone sentencing
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/barr-takes-control-legal-matters-interest-trump-including-stone-sentencing-n1135231

Fortunately this was all decided before Trump's tweet.

1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

Also, Warren proved tonight that her candidacy is unviable.  She should drop out.  But apparently she won’t. 

Would a Sanders/Warren ticket be the "secret sauce" for the progressive wing of the Democratic Party?  Obviously not geographically balanced but this gender balanced ticket would help with Bernie's age issue (78 is old). 

3 hours ago, Lhalo said:

I would assume they throw their weight behind Buttigieg now (pun intended)? Super low turnout btw. 

The turnout  (with 96% counted)is at 262,940 vs 247,983 (with 100% counted) in 2016.  I cannot explain why the Iowa turnout was so much lower than 2016.

At least Jussie Smollett is going to stand trial in Chicago.

6 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Cool. Now do Sondland.

According to CNN, Sondland was also planning to retire.  Both Vindman and Sondland had been administratively been removed from any day to day responsibilities and were just filling out their time. 

8 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Cool. It's still illegal.

You are aware that Vindman requested a transfer which was to occur at the end of February?  POTUS just granted this request sooner.

12 hours ago, Jason said:

Do you think Obama would have kept them there had someone testified against him? I’m pretty sure most everyone working in the White House does so at the pleasure of the president  

I also object to the press referring to these events as firings.  The Vindmans were transferred.  The twin Vindmans are in the military where transfers and reassignments are common.  Ambassador Sondman definitely serves at the will of the POTUS/ 

The lack of a larger turnout certainly shows that Bernie has lost his juice.  The poor Biden showing will hurt his already limping fund raising.  Warren and Klobuchar would seem to benefit from this Democratic Party snafu in vote tabulation. Mayor Pete is losing the bump a first  or second finish in Iowa was going to supply him.  Bloomberg is also a winner tonight.  Trump is also a huge winner as the Democrat field continues to be fractured and Biden stumbled.