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AZMike

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Everything posted by AZMike

  1. According to this theory, Blanton = comeback* player of the year *in the same sense that Fernando Rodney was comeback** player of the year in 2012. **"comeback" = completely unprecedented career year
  2. He did once (although the Jays front office might've slipped him a bonus under the table to do so like they did with Reagins )
  3. One thing neither of these stats fairly take into account (underrated by WAR, overrated by WPA) is that pitchers often pitch differently in high leverage situations. In a bases-empty situation early in a game the pitcher is likely to throw more pitches in the zone or pitch to contact to try to get the batter on fewer overall pitches since the downside of them getting a solo HR in that spot is not that significant. OTOH in a one-run deficit game with two men on base, the pitcher's likely going to throw more pitches and tougher pitches in an effort to get a K.
  4. MLB should have to supply insurance against the contracts for players who get injured participating in the WBC.
  5. Hopefully Wells will hit enough three run homers in meaningless spring games to trick them into doing it (even at a severe haircut)
  6. Considering we would've avoided the Wells fiasco, and the [future] Pujols fiasco, I agree completely.
  7. Based on a 2-inning sample size in early March Blanton looked better than either of those guys in his last outing. He threw almost all strikes and retired batters quickly (admittedly one of those strikes was a 425+ foot home run, but at least he hadn't walked two people before that like 2012 Santana...)
  8. Who do you guys see winning the AL East this year? While I'm usually hesitant to count out the Yankees, this year doesn't look good for them so far.
  9. The fact that Weaver's value is being disproportionately assigned to the defenders (and the defenders are arguably seeing their WAR increase) means that WAR by itself cannot be used as a one-stop-shop number to quantify that one player is a better overall player than another. I personally prefer Win Probability Added (WPA), or context-netural win probability added (WPA/LI). These seem to agree with the "eyeball test" significantly better (particularly in my earlier example of of Weaver vs Kendrick). I think stat is a much better starting point than WAR for fans who want to argue about who a team's MVP is. Both figures are dependent on context and teammates etc. and both stats make arbitrary judgment calls when it comes to dividing up credit for plays, but in the case of win probability, the term "win" is actually appropriate. You can by definition sum up the win probability of all the players on the team and end up with the team's overall winning record. I agree with others who said that there might be less confusion if WAR were named something that didn't include the word "wins".
  10. Stupid idea. We need more left handed hitters on this team. We should have Pujols try to pick up hitting from the left instead.
  11. That said, Weaver's only a 3 win player. Equivalent to Kendrick, and slightly less than half as valuable as Aybar. Clearly he sucks.
  12. Jered Weaver = Howie Kendrick according to fWAR
  13. If we get a ~7 run buffer, there's a chance
  14. Scott Boras is salivating at the thought of a bidding war between the Angels and the Rangers for Kyle Lohse.
  15. This is then followed by a Pujols double. Pujols is thrown out trying to stretch it into a triple.
  16. I agree but it's not as bad as the "if you throw out April the Angels were the best team ever!" nonsense, as the whole point of the season is to win games. Margin of victory doesn't matter as much though. Giving up loads of runs in one game that's already going to probalby be a blowout loss is not as bad as consistently giving up several (but not boatloads) of runs and losing multiple games, even though stats like ERA, WHIP etc. would be the same in those two scenarios. This was demonstrated by the Orioles who lost lots of blowouts and won lots of one-run games, they actually had a good winning record with a near-zero run differential.
  17. One injury to a starting pitcher and this team is in serious trouble. That's bad.
  18. I have to agree considering the other defensive options on the team:
  19. Best evidence of Butcher's instruction quality is Fernando Rodney, who comlained of Butcher attempting to change his pitching mechanics as the cause of his poor performance. Then he went to Tampa Bay, coaches found him a new position on the rubber, and he pitched arguably the best season ever for a reliever. I completely expect a similar transformation from Walden. our best lineup thrown out there to date, against a Dodgers split squad.
  20. Interesting idea. The King's Court is pretty good marketing idea. I've actually quite a few Mariner's fans with those shirts show up at Angel Stadium on days where Felix starts.
  21. Trout would've hit for the cycle last season had the new fences been in effect
  22. we better bring in Albert for that one.
  23. from MLB.com: Mariners beat Rangers; Morales 2 run homer Saunders Encouraged by strong start to spring Vargas pitches for the Angels tomorrow.
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