Pancake Bear

On 9/26/2018 at 11:35 AM, Sean-Regan said:

You should’ve stuck with Houston. Saying Boston couldn’t get past Cleveland undermines your argument. Houston is fair, though. I think Boston comes out of the AL, though. I think Houston breaks down at the wrong time. The NL will have to get lucky to win the WS this year - the AL teams are quite a bit better. 

Bump. 

Scoreboard. 

I’d be genuinely surprised if Jackie Bradley Jr. doesn’t win. Simmons should win unanimously, though. 

6 hours ago, Second Base said:

And saying yes immediately citing road splits is surface level short-sighted. So for one year of Sonny Gray, you're looking at 9 million, plus two prospects.  For one year of Gio Gonzalez, who has had a better career than Gray, you're looking at 10 million.....no prospects owed.  The better value is Gio.  Go ahead and add Happ, Eovaldi, Sabathia, Ryu, Hamels and Pomeranz as a list of pitchers who have equal or better value when you consider they don't cost a single prospect. 

I'm not saying Sonny Gray won't be a good pitcher.  I'm saying Sonny Gray has a metric ton of substitutes on this market that can be acquired without sacrificing prospects. 

 

I'm not sure any of those options is as good as Gray or would be as affordable to a team on a tight budget this offseason. Obviously you don't spend anything major in a trade on him, but is it worth something to get a better option than most of those others? Hard to say without knowing what the Yanks would ask for. 

28 minutes ago, Second Base said:

With the sheer number of options available, I wouldn't be interested in paying that for Sonny Gray.  If you figure he costs 9 million plus prospects and had an ERA around 5.00 last year, there are plentiful options that are more favorable.  

Then you would be mistaken. 

Sonny Gray 2018 splits:

13 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

I still don't expect Ohtani to get much more than 400 PAs next year, as we're not sure what his recovery timeline will be, how much of spring training he'd lose, and because they'll still have to find DH time for Pujols.

There’s certainly the possibility you’re correct - kind of like people predicting a roll of snake eyes - but there’s no information I’ve seen anywhere that he’ll have effective the same amount of AB’s next year as he did this year. 500-550 is probably the most likely. But who knows with recovery - your snake eyes prediction may come true. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/billy-eppler-discusses-angels-offseason-goals/c-296908846

Eppler: We need OBP

Schoop has one decent OBP season in his career. Aside from that, it’s under .300. 

28 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Based on those numbers, Calhoun has truly regressed (aside from 2016, and a big 3 months in 2018 wiped out by a wretched April/May/September).

Cozart, on the other hand, actually improved his numbers from 2015-2017 over what they were in 2012-2014.   2018 does seem like an outlier, but it hasn't been a general trend of decreased numbers like with Calhoun.   Granted, Cozart played in a hitter's park in Cincy. 

Calhoun is clearly not the player he was, but his splits were so severe in 2018 post swing change that it’s difficult to project where he’ll end up in 2019. I’d bet he’ll be better than a .652 ops, but will he top .725? I don’t know. 

27 minutes ago, stormngt said:

OPS 

2011  Cozart 811   Pujols 906

2012  Cozart 687   Pujols 859  Calhoun 457

2013  Cozart 665    Pujols 767  Calhoun 808

2014  Cozart 569    Pujols 790  Calhoun 776

2015  Cozart 769   Pujols  787  Calhoun 731

2016  Cozart 732    Pujols 780  Calhoun 786

2017 Cozart 933   Pujols 672  Calhoun 725

2018 Cozart 658   Pujols 700  Calhoun 652

 

Looking at the numbers:  Pujols had a better offensive season than Cozart in 6 out of the last 7 seasons and both are over 30 and regressing

Pujols had a better offensive season than Calhoun 3 out of the last 6 seasons.  2016 there was a .001 pt separation so  basically a tie.  

So let me be clear so we can just shut this debate down

Neither Calhoun nor Cozart have proven to be better hitters than  Pujols during either of their careers.  I guess since Calhoun is younger we can still hope 700+ OPS.  However, Pujols has only been under 700 once in last seven years.  Estimating an continue regression of Pujols and hoping Kole jumps back to high 700s again than maybe.  I don't have that confidence.  Hell most on this board would love to see Calhoun traded.

Pujols is not longer an impact hitter.  We just haven't had five better hitters on the team when he has been in the lineup. Who know how anyone is hitting next year? 

Calhoun was a better hitter than Pujols 3/4 years excluding the most recent one. Cozart was not better any of those except for 2017, in which he was significantly better than Pujols. Could be somewhat park related. 

Point is, my initial point is still correct: Both might be better than Pujols in 2019 based on recent history (which is why I didn’t include either in the ‘clearly better’ category, or anyone else in the ‘might be’ zone because they have the best argument for being better in 2019).

Arguing based on career numbers or *only* the last year (when both Cozart and Calhoun had a massive down year) is disingenuous. We can quibble whether Cozart is closer to 2017 numbers than 2018 or whether Calhoun is regression faster than Pujols, but it is a legitimate point: Both of them have a reasonable probability of being better than Pujols in 2019. To argue otherwise is just wrong. 

2 hours ago, ThomasSutpen said:

are you familiar with the film The Big Sleep?

I’ve probably seen it, but my memory is a bit Rusty. 

30 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Moreno's comment fall in line with what most of us are thinking.  We need pitching first and foremost.  His comment about the pen is somewhat interesting though and it will be interesting if we allocate resources to that area.  For me, it's the first time we've gone into an off season in the Eppler era where the pen seems to have some shape with Parker, Anderson, Alvarez, Buttrey, Robles, Jerez, and Cole.  With Key coming back around mid year and maybe Ramirez as well depending on what they do with him in arb.  The lynch pin of the 2017 pen, which was very good, was Petit.  We are missing that multi inning guy who can give you two solid innings at a time and around 90ip for the season with a sub 3 era.  

Guys like Paredes, Noe Ramirez and Cam need to go.  I would keep Cam of those three if you made me but I think there's room for upgrade there.  

While I am trying to get on board with letting the farm fund the pen long term, if they went out and bagged a solid relief arm for about 6-7m per, I wouldn't complain.   But that, of course, is a risky proposition.  Still like Herrera regardless of his struggles with WSN.  I think he might come on the cheap as a result.  Maybe 2/16 or 3/21.  Which would take him through age 31. 

Fangraphs had an interview with Ausmus a while back where he was adamant that not just anyone could close games and seemed to be a fan of the traditional bullpen approach. Dunno if he still feels that way. If so, he probably would hate what the Halos have had the last two years. 

I wouldn't mind seeing Ebel stay on at 3B - seems like he's been better than the other options we had there and he was helpful with Trout's defense this season.

16 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I responded to a quote that Cozart and Calhoun are better hitters than Pujols.   Neither the 2018 stats nor career stats support that statement

If you learned to read, what I said was that Cozart and Calhoun might be better at this point. Since were talking about a hypothetical lineup, obviously we’re not comparing career numbers, which you are well aware of. Pujols is old and regressing. Cozart and Calhoun both have an actual legitimate shot at putting up better numbers than Albert. Both are miles ahead defensively. But keep it up with the straw men: you can pretend you’re winning, anyway. 

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

Neither Cozart nor Calhoun were better in 2018.  Do we want to compare career statistics instead?

Wow, that’s amazing. How could I be so dumb? I mean, aside from the fact that I didn’t say that. But kudos on not actually reading what I did say. It’s a real talent. 

7 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Who are the five better hitters the Halos have now?

Trout, Ohtani, Upton, and Simmons are all plainly better options.

Cozart and Calhoun might be. Hard to say on other options. 

But how many of those guys will lead off or bat 2nd? If you have a lead off guy not in that group, that bumps Pujols back to at least sixth. 

1 hour ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

This was the one guy I hoped it wouldn't be. From what I recall of his tenure in Detroit, he was not only a bad manager but an asshole. Would rather have kept Scioscia.

Source?

My bottom choice. Not who I wanted. That said, Eppler has more info than I do. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. The good news? This year isn’t our window, so we have wiggle room if he sucks to sack him. 

I’m definitely pro-Dodgers on this one. Boston sucks. Never understood the anti-Dodgers sentiment from Angels fans. Strikes me as kind of insecure. They aren’t division rivals and they don’t meet in the playoffs. Literally nothing but city rivalry, which is kind of silly, imho. 

Just now, Troll Daddy said:

What is true ...  the Angels are not going to take any chances delaying the healing process. Pitching will take priority over hitting. 

There’s been no indication that his rehab will prevent him from pitching anywhere close to half the season. I’m quoting from memory, but Fletcher mixed that notion a week back or so and suggested 500+(iirc) AB’s is more likely. Anything can happen with rehab and injuries, but you never trade for a top 1B because you assume Ohtani will play only half the season. That’s lunacy.

40 minutes ago, floplag said:

Ohtani isn't there for probably half of 2019.  That's why it made some sense.   In my mind about the time he returns is when Albert starts to think about mortality. 
Again i'm not championing the deal, i just read it and thought id share it is all as it had some merit, but im not sure i like it as the prospect cost would be hefty im sure especially if they eat half Grienke's money. 

Yeah, that’s not even close to true. 

He's basically a cheaper version of Valbuena before Valbuena became a sub-minor league caliber player. I don't really think he blocks anyone other than Marte returning, which is cool with me. If Fletcher, Fernandez, Ward, Thaiss, Rengifo are up, I expect them to play. I don't expect them to grab someone like Descalso expecting him to fill significant AB's. But when you've got Ohtani and Pujols, you need some flexibility. at utility. Maybe Fletcher is the utility guy - his defense appears better, as does his contact ability and average, but he gives up some in on-base, power, and maybe the amount of positions he can feasibly back up.

I wouldn't be crowing if we signed someone like Descalso, but I wouldn't be crying either. 

1 hour ago, True Grich said:

I give Eppler an incomplete because his work isn't done yet and I prefer to judge him over the life of his whole contract.  This is a pivotal off season (obviously).  I generally like what he's done so far, but he hasn't been perfect (what GM is?).  I think he had a huge miss with Kinsler and Cozart wasn't anything close to what we expected prior to being injured. Those were huge holes. 

If he can sign Trout to an extension this off season, I'll give him a 10+.  I just don't think that's likely because I would think (my own speculation), is that Trout is going to give the new manager a year before he considers extending.  I can't see him extending, unless they sign an in-house guy he's familiar with. 

Kinsler wasn’t a miss. He was an average 2B with an elite glove who returned two controllable relievers with upside in trade. That’s closer to a home run than a whiff.

Cozart is too early to judge. He had a rough start, but the contract made sense in context. 

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

 

Blue and black. 

12 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I started out at 7 then changed it to an 8 once I started thinking about it.  

Day -1:  one of the worst farm systems in baseball history that included 1 legit prospect.  Plus a couple of others that were recently drafted before he got there.  Absolutely no money to spend at the major league level.  Almost no international presence. 

So he was essentially tasked with rebuilding the team while attempting to keep them competitive enough to grab a WC spot should things go right.  

Yes, he's made some missteps with his available resources in Valbuena, Espinosa and Cozart (so far).  But if all those players work out, do the halos make the playoffs?  Certainly not in 2016 or 2018.  Maybe a slightly better chance in 2017 if Valbuena and Espinosa are better.  But considering the pitching injuries sustained, likely not as well.  

Yet in the meantime, he's done an excellent job of rebuilding the farm while using minimal prospect currency to supplement the major league club.  The only real player of value he's given up is Newcomb and it was to acquire Simmons who's actually increased his value since being here.  There's an outside chance that Elvin Rodriguez (Upton trade) and Wilkel Hernandez (Kinsler trade) become useful major leaguers.  Rodriguez in particular.  

Going from one of the worst farms in baseball history to at least top half and likely top 10 in three years with minimal outlay otherwise to supplement the major league club is incredible.  On top of that there has been almost zero supplementation from the farm to the major league club from the left overs during the Dipoto era.  It's Barria and Fletcher at the major league level and Ward, Jones, and Suarez as the only prospects with a real chance in our top 30+.  Guys in the top 30 with an outside chance to contribute are Hermosillo, Leo Rivas, Luis Pena, Jake Jewell, Joe Gatto, and Hector Yan.  

Oh and we got Ohtani almost specifically because of Eppler.  

My only mild concern is the mixed track record in the evaluation of major league players and the ones he missed on have something in common.  The value of 'positional versatility'.  Guys he's tried to shove into different positions from where they normally play or guys who can play multiple positions.  Everyone else has worked out at least decently and the reason why the team hasn't been better is because of injury or a lack of resources.  Or Eppler's unwillingness to use some of his resources.  Yet.  

I'll move him to a 9 pretty quickly if he extends Trout regardless of the size of the contract.  

What would get him to a 10?  If he's able to get us into a second wild card without tapping into our top 20 prospects to do so or crippling the long term budget.  I'm not going to overly emphasis the importance of this off season outside of locking up Trout because I think there'd be a fair amount to do to make us a legitimate contender to win the division. 

When I say this offseason is important, I mainly mean three things:

- Locking up Trout: I 100% agree this is Priority No.1

- Who he picks as Manager: I'll at least raise an eyebrow if it's Ausmus and I'm curious why he's even interviewing Vizquel, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt; it's an important decision, though, and I want to see how it turns out

- Offseason work on the team: And I agree partly with you in that I'm skeptical we're contending next season - in some ways, I think he can do more to mess up the future this offseason by being too active than in doing less. Point is, what he does or does not do will be important for the future (albeit, not as important as the first two) things.

It’s hard to judge depth, but based on this, it looks like contact right over the fence to me. I have no problem with the call. 

My opinion is that the ball was approximately right over the line - that's how it appears to me based on several angles - when contact was made. I think it *could* have been a little (but not much) over; I don't think it was on the field side of the wall. It's close enough that I don't think anyone outside of Houston should be complaining over the call as if it's horribly bad. The fact that a bunch of people who don't give a crap about either team can't agree on it demonstrates that it was really close - ergo, not a bad call. Lucky bounce for Boston; not so lucky for Houston.