Pancake Bear

Depends how much money AZ holds onto. His numbers still look pretty good - I’m not sure how much velo he’s lost recently, though. 

26 minutes ago, GOPSnowflakesHateCezero said:

i hate everybody

Snowflake. 

Jeff Passan, bringing the

Going all in this year would be kind of like betting your whole stack on a pair of 8's. Maybe you get lucky, but chances are you're going to walk out much worse than you came in and the chances of being successful were bad to begin with.

Sure, we'd probably make the playoffs, but what moves exactly could we make that put us over NY, Boston, or Houston in 2019? It's one thing to make short-term moves to stay competitive, and, if everything works out, make the playoffs. It is quite another to blow up payroll and the farm *again* on a long shot. 

Does it suck that we're wasting Trout and Ohtani's golden years? Yeah, but that's not Eppler's fault - blame Dipooto. Crying about it doesn't change things. Eppler's approach, while frustrating in some ways, is the best path to winning a WS. If he doesn't go this route, we probably lose any shot of a championship in the next decade. 

3 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Andujar had a good season, but he was terrible defensively, and his overall OPS+ was less than Ohtani's, his WAR was less than Ohtani as an offensive player (and that's with the bigger negative positional adjustment given to DH's).

IOW,  Andujar would’ve been more valuable with no defense (at DH) than butchering 3B all season. That’s pretty bad considering how much value DH’s get penalized for on WAR - to be worse...is some pretty awful defense. 

Bummer. If it’s lies, Dipooto looks like a martyr. If it’s true, he probably gets canned and someone actually good at building a team may take over. Sucks either way. 

48 minutes ago, floplag said:

Well deserved, i was worried ill admit it.  Not that i didnt think he should that was never a doubt, i just had little faith in the bulk of the mlb media.

Pretty much same. I thought he’d win, but I wasn’t sure how close it would be. Writers have been getting better, but with only thirty, you never know how many dunces will get in to muck things up. As it turned out: Four + one Nimrod who apparently got hit in the head by baseballs too many times. 

38 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

Who else wanted to punch out Russo after his stupid comments?

Just made me laugh. He’s a typical radio host - often like former players, they don’t get the job because they’re insightful but because they make waves with their doofish hot takes. Most radio guys aren’t qualified to analyze sports, frankly. Former players are a mixed bag. 

Based on his value, he’s the best AL Rookie. Based on what he accomplished - things no one has done since Babe Ruth? - it should be unanimous. It won’t be, but it should. 

37 minutes ago, Stradling said:

There are literally a million opinions on this ranging from all pitching to all hitting to a balance of both.  I go back and forth in my mind of how I would spend it.  But at 9:35 pm on November 8th here is what I would do:

Keuchel 5 years and $80 million with only $12 million of it being paid this year.

Daniel Murphy 2 years $20 million with $10 million being paid this year

Kurt Suzuki 1 year $3 million

Tony Sipp 1 year $5 million

I would run with Fletcher is the Utility guy, getting regular reps in the outfield as well.  Murphy would play 2nd or 3rd with Cozart manning the other one.  Ward would also be on the big club if they can find enough at bats for him.  

What would you do?  

 

Good luck getting Keuchel for 16 mil aav. Can you find any prediction site that lists him taking that little? 18 would be on the low side, I’d imagine, and I can’t see him going as low as 12 next season regardless of aav. 

6 minutes ago, ettin said:

 

I don't know Jeff, the quote in the OP sounds a lot like there was some issue that Cashman believes is interfering with Gray's success in NY. If he is the Oakland version why are they trading him?

Haven’t you heard? It’s really hard to pitch on the big stage. It’s why Ohtani signed with the Angels and chickened out of starting games in NY. At least, so pretentious Yankees fans tell me. 

6 minutes ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

Not one of them can match him in the field. Comparing batting statistics misses the point. Ozzie Smith wasn't the greatest hitter either, but he made plays that I didn't think were humanly possible.

Ask yourself this: You are managing Game 7 of the World Series. You have a one-run lead in the ninth, and your best defensive players are out there to clinch the win. Which of the players on that list would you replace Simmons with? I wouldn't, period.

I think the only name in baseball history that that could be given to such a question without laughter being the appropriate response (that includes Visquel) is Ozzie Smith. Defensively, they are each other’s only peer. 

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Yeah, as the 8th guy, how absurd.   I love how people come out of the woodwork here to be asshats. 
Now perhaps @Dochalo you see why i wasnt willing to post it, people only want to bash or read yes posts. 
From now on well just stick to posting obvious shit and noone has to worry about thinking outside their tiny little box.  
 

The 8th guy should be a guy who isn’t missing a pitching shoulder. The issue isn’t just that you think the pitching is no big deal or that you think the offense is somehow a serious problem, it’s that you’ve repeatedly stuck to that view regardless of how many people or how much evidence is put out there to refute it. 

Could the offense improve? Sure. It’s not at the level of Boston, NY, or Houston. No question. 

But the rotation is abysmal. Even relatively mediocre guys would improve it significantly. Depth doesn’t mean jack if they’re all guys who can’t make it through 4 innings in Angel f’ing Stadium. Meyer may have more skill potential than some of those guys, but until he actually shows his shoulder is remotely reliable, he shouldn’t be factored into depth discussions at all. 

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

Full disclosure, my plan just took a hit.
Per Fletcher on Twitter Meyer was just shut down with a setback for 4-6 weeks, status for ST now unclear.  Obviously hurts my depth argument. 

If your 'depth' argument was counting on Meyer, that explains how ridiculous it is. The Angels have awful pitching. They have a lot of guys who can't pitch deep into games. That means that the rotation makes the bullpen look awful, too. The offense is just fine. There are too many options that have been written off for no good reason by people like you while counting on guys like Meyer to be significantly more than a DL mainstay. 

Guys like Meyer, Bridwell, etc. - those are guys who should only be counted on if the bottom falls out or for very limited innings. Anything significant you get out of them is a huge piece of luck. Planning on them carrying large amounts of weight is laughably naive. 

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

Ok so here's version four. 

1. Brian McCann 1/5. 

2. Trade for Jake Lamb to play 3B and a little 1B. (5-6 million in arb?)

3. Sign Yusei Kikuchi 5/50. 

4. Sign CC Sabathia 1/9. 

Just read today that Cashman wants to re-sign Sabathia. If the Yankees want him back, I don't see him leaving. Which is a bummer, because a think he'd fit in well in the Angels' rotation.

My preferred answer to people who say Trade Trout: You want Trout to be in the playoffs? Okay, tell Dipoto to trade the Angels Paxton, Segura, and Diaz for Jewell and Hermosillo. That'll be a good start. Why should the Angels trade Trout for peanuts? Tell other teams to trade the Angels good players for underwhelming returns instead.

The implicit point in these stupid trade articles isn't really about Trout in the playoffs - it's about Trout in the playoffs for some team not named the Angels. 

Meh. Defensive analytics are not terribly precise. Per sabr defensive index, Upton is 3rd at LF in the AL. Trout 2nd...to Deshields (who wasn't one of the three nominated). Go to different sites, you'll see different results and different values applied to defense.

One thing is clear: Errors are a really bad way to rate defense. Yet, everyone on twitter: "_____ got robbed! He had so many less errors than _____!" Really dumb. 

31 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Dodgers offered Grandal arbitration. Kinda surprised me. My guess is they want him to walk but want the pick. I mean they benched the guy during the World Series.  I wouldn't be shocked if he took it.

Ramos was very good last year. I'd love to get him. 

 

Or, they want him back or want a draft pick but don’t want to make a multi year commitment and they’re willing to pay more for one year to make it difficult for him to sign elsewhere. 

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

He had a 3.12 ERA at home.

 

Whoops. My bad. Must’ve been a fluke thing for him - It was the opposite in 2017. 

38 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

What is of more interest to me are the Harper and Machado predictions; very few publications have been willing to speculate on actual numbers.

Harper: 14/$420MM

Machado: 13/$390MM

I was predicting something like 10-12 years, $300-350MM and many here saying those were way too high, but they're going even higher - and I'm not totally surprised. But if they're right, then we're looking at a Trout extension of 12+ years, $500MM+...which is my current prediction.

Don't believe everything you read. Maybe there's a GM out there desperate enough to do a deal like that, but I think most will say no thanks at this point. 30 million till they're around 40? That's a lot for guys who already have issues - Machado's defense has already shown signs of problems and he doesn't hustle. Harper had major problems with the shift last year despite his OBP. I'd max out at 12yr, 30aav for 360 at either. That's the absolute most I could see them going for, and I wouldn't pay it. 8-10 years at 30 million aav would be more palatable, and I think they both get that much. Whether they get more depends on how dumb the GM's with money are. 

EDIT: The MLBTR numbers in general seem high to me. Strange as it is to say this, I think Heyman's predictions a day or so ago, which are a bit more on the conservative side, are closer to what I'd expect to see (although it's possible I'm being overly reactionary based on last year's free agency results).

18 minutes ago, Blarg said:

The Angels won't touch Sabathia. 

They were talking with him last offseason I heard. Also, he had a 3.12 ERA outside of Yankee Stadium last season. You could do a lot worse than grab a guy like that for one year and 8 mil.

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

Reading material:

• https://www.ocregister.com/2018/08/23/angels-catcher-francisco-arcia-living-his-dream-after-12-years-in-the-minors/
• https://www.ocregister.com/2018/08/09/how-the-angels-kole-calhoun-turned-his-season-around/ 
• https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/angels-notes-jo-adell-jose-soriano-among-those-to-watch/
• ($$$) https://theathletic.com/510170/2018/09/25/matt-thaiss-angels-2016-first-round-pick-embraces-changes-for-the-better/

My first thought was, “Jeremy who?” Didn’t realize how much of an impact he’s been having at a minor league level. Thanks for posting these. 

2 hours ago, Kevinb said:

Not sensitive but you’ve made this argument a couple times. I don’t see anyone calling for an all star at every position at least none that I’ve seen. But truly we have a zero at first base with Pujols which the team can’t get rid of because of the contract I understand. 2nd base is either Fletcher who has absolute no power and really doesn’t walk but batted 275. Or Cozart who hit 219 last year will be a year older and coming off an injury. Let’s call that maybe a half a player since we don’t know. Third is either Cozart which he didn’t play great there or Ward? Who hit a solid 174. Catcher which who knows what’s going on there. And Calhoun in right which had a month plus on a tear but overall has a mid 600 ops. So that’s 4.5 complete question marks in the line up. Getting just average bats in those spots would be incredible. If one or two of them were above average we’d be sitting pretty trying to compete for the division title which is all I want for the team I root for to try and compete for a division title the rest will sort itself out. 

Fletcher already kind of covered this, but I'll throw my two cents in: 

RF: Whether this is a black hole or not is irrelevant - we aren't filling it with anything other than a stop-gap in 2019. Calhoun's pre/post swing change numbers are so sharp (even with a bit of a decline again at year's end) that we don't have enough information to say Calhoun is or isn't fine in RF. The least we can say is that we have multiple internal options that there's pretty much no chance they grab anything other than a platoon partner/4th OF guy. 

It is fair to say RF was essentially a black hole in 2018 (28th), but it does not at all follow that it will be in 2019. 

1B: Similar to RF, nothing major will happen here. Pujols isn't retiring before ST, nor is he going to be bought out before then; and with Pujols/Ohtani(!) on the roster, we don't have roster flexibility for a serious move. They will either stick with in-system options or, like Fletcher pointed out, grab someone who can play 1B in addition to other positions. 

3B: Like the previous two positions, 3B qualified as a black hole for the Angels in 2018 (24th - 28th at 1B and RF). It's getting ahead of things to characterize it as a black hole for 2019, though. Sure, Cozart struggled, but so do a lot of guys their first year in Anaheim. Ward could be the guy, too - he hasn't had enough time to prove it one way or another.

Could we stand a clear upgrade in these spots? Sure, but unless we're going to blow up the payroll or destroy the system, it's best to figure out whether any of the in-house options might work (in a year that, like the last couple, is basically a 'We'll compete if the bounces go our way' season). The other 2 spots were not black holes in 2018 by any objective measure, and it's incredibly premature to argue that they will be in 2019. 

2B: The Angels ranked 9th at 2B this season - a combination of Kinsler and Fletcher. It's fair to point out that they were weak offensively (23rd), but they were far and away #1 defensively. You may consider that a black hole; I do not. It's plain that the Angels FO does not. Can the offense improve at 2B? Hopefully. But we could do worse than Fletcher for 140+ games. We also have other options. Point is, calling it a potential black-hole spot, like every other position so far, is simply not accurate.

The Angels ranked 15th at C in 2018. Not great, not terrible. They were around 19th offensively. Maldonado led the way at 26th among C, but also played substantially more than any of the oth guys on the team. Briceno/Rivera were both quite respectable for catchers, offensively with a 91/90 wRC+ (Kevan Smith had a 104 wRC+ in 187 PA for 2018).

We could upgrade at C, but generally that isn't a great plan given how catcher skills tend to deteriorate quicker and more sharply than other position players. 

IMO, 2019 is the year to find out what we've got at those positions. We've got the best CF in baseball, Simmons was 3rd at SS (still ranked 9th among qualified SS in offense), Upton was 6th offensively in LF (9th overall among LF and 22nd among OF generally), and Ohtani ranked 3rd among DH's, despite putting up barely more than half the PA of the two guys above him (eyeballing it, he was only slightly less productive than JD Martinez this season, and substantially above MVP candidate (LOL) Khris Davis).

So, to sum up: Four positions of between above average and elite production with no reason to expect any immediate major dropoffs in production. Three positions that were awful in 2018, but with uncertainty for their status in 2019 (can't get much worse!). Two positions that were a mixed bag - hopefully they improve (or, in the case of 2B, stays at least consistent). 

So, no, we don't have 4.5 black holes. We may, but counting those spots already out is based on no real evidence and giving no chance for someone like Calhoun to put up solid production in-house - that's the way championship teams are built. 

1 hour ago, Kevinb said:

Where did I say all star at every positon??? Quote me? This team has 3.5 black holes in the infield and 1 in the outfield. Never said sign an all star at every positon but I like being told I did wonder if that’s how you get quotes? But having more of an answer than just question marks in 5 of the spots in the line up would be nice. 

4.5 black holes? Yeah, no.  Nice try, though (aside from the part where, y’know, it isn’t).

Distinguishing between most valuable and best player instantly classes you as someone who engages in fantasy (and I don’t mean the kind that’s actually a game) and shouldn’t be taken seriously. Oh, it’s Whicker - shock. Also, leading Cy Young with wins? LOL. 

Couple of years ago Moustakas had an obp about .350 with a bit less power. Could be he’s been selling out for homeruns the last couple of seasons and buying into a system that emphasizes on-base more than power could bring that back out in him. Wouldn’t be my first pick, though.