Angelsjunky

Israel is so unhinged that I wouldn't put it past them, but they want US involvement. So they'll goad other countries, hoping for retaliation. Meanwhile the US is saying to the Middle East, "Don't attack back, even if Israel attacks you."

Closed door meeting incoming...for the Marlins.

4-2, tied for 1st.

Fun fact: Casey Kotchman has the record for most consecutive fielding chances without an error, with 2379.

14.

But Trump

Israel is trying to draw the US directly into war by provoking Iran. Psychopaths. They're a rogue, terrorist state - and the US will continue to defend them no matter what.

The Sano Experiment.

Yeah, unintentional: Israel gave permission for the route, car was clearly marked, they hit the truck, survivors got out to try to get wounded to another vehicle, they hit them again and again. Unintentional.

LOL at including Stroman. He's going to be 33 on May 1st and has been in the big leagues since 2014. He's had five 3+ WAR seasons in the 2014-21 range. I guess they have to include a Yankee. I think Harris has broken out - but I suppose he could get better.

Not worried at all. He probably didn't make the mental shift from spring training to regular season, but he'll come around.

I'd be crucified if I had written this.

Maybe Silseth is the pitching version of Adell: All potential, no actual performance.

Well said.

I meant to say 58-104

Again, I think it is the main factor, just that there might be other factors (e.g. too much emphasis on strength training vs. flexibility, but that's just conjecture). But I think you're right on - and Nolan is a good example. This is also why I refered to today's starters--and more so tomorrow's, if the trend holds--as "opening closers" or some such. DeGrom, when healthy, is basically Eric Gagne in his prime, and even Gagne pitching 80ish innings blew out his arm and had a short career. I wonder if part of it was trying to compensate for the hitting of the 90s. I know innings were going down for decades before, but we've had quite a drop over the last decade plus. Hitting and pitching tend to see-saw over the long span of history, so it may be that in trying to catch back up with hitters, pitchers have taken a damaging move that could end up hurting baseball in the long-run. Sometimes trends go down bad paths and hopefully self-correct. I'm working on a chart of innings over all of baseball history. The main takeaway is that while the overall trend is clear from the 1870s-80s until now, there was actually some fluctuation. Inning counts were actually pretty stable from about the 1920s until the 70s, with some ups and down (down in the hitting-dominant 50s, up in the pitching-dominant 60s). It might be similar to the three true outcomes phenomena on the hitting side: it was very extreme, but it seems that teams are re-discovering the benefits of speed (and maybe contact). Last year had the most stolen bases since 1987...hope the trend continues. And I hope that pitchers re-learn how to pace themselves, and we start seeing more 200 IP starters. I think the current paradigm is too unbalanced. One last thing: I agree with Bill James who said, back in 2000, that the best and most balanced version of baseball was probably the 1980s...there was a nice diversity of play styles, with a good amount of HR (but not too much) and tons of stolen bases. It is not unlike how (imo, at least) my favorite version of Trout was 2012-13. It has all been great, but I loved the power-speed-discipline combo.

That's basically it, with the caveat that depth of #2-3s was more correlative of WS championships than a top-heavy rotation...but this doesn't mean that those with both weren't even better off. In other words, A is usually better than B, even though both sets add up to 15: A: 2, 3, 3, 3, 4 B: 1, 2, 4, 4, 4 Meaning, all other things being equal, a high floor is more important than a high ceiling. Obviously the both is the best of all worlds. And thanks!

I'm checking out that article right now, and the first thing that stands out is that Gerrit Cole is the only pitcher that was voted a unanimous ace - that is, by all 20 participants. So if there is only one "true ace" in MLB right now, going by their definition, then that means 29 other teams haven't drafted and developed a guy who is currently a true ace. Of course there are a bunch of guys that would have been unanimous at some point over the last ten years--Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, DeGrom, Sale, and others come to mind--but in 2024, Gerrit is the only guy to make the grade. Which is weird. Back up for a moment. If you're over 35ish, you remember a time when top pitchers regularly pitched 250 innings. Justin Verlander is the only active pitcher to pitch 250 IP, which he did last back in 2011 with 251 IP. Roy Halladay did it a year before. Meaning, from 2010-23 there have been two pitcher seasons with 250 IP. In the decade before, 2000-09, there were 7; in 1990-99, 33; in 1980-89, 109; in the 70s, 255. Or to put that another way, over the last three seasons, there have been, on average, 5.67 seasons of 200+ IP; from 2010-19, it was 27.1 - that's more than four times as many. Going back further, and it is even more extreme, especially accounting for fewer teams. It is nothing new to point out that innings have declined over baseball history - and it isn't just the last few decades. There are some crazy numbers in the 19th century, with Will White holding the record with 680 IP (!) pitched in 1879. The most IP in the 20th century was Ed Walsh with 464 IP in 1908, which was also the last 400+ IP season. The last 350 IP season was Wilbur Wood with 359.1 in 1973, and the last 300 IP was Steve Carlton with 304 IP in 1980. It should also be noted that velocity has risen throughout history. We don't have good numbers before the last 10-20ish years, at least consistently and accurately across the board, but I think I read that average fastball velocity has increased by something like 3-5 MPH over the last couple decades. I'm guessing that there were outliers through history, but it is quite possible that no one threw a 90 MPH fastball until the 20th century. In mid-century, I'm guessing that Bob Feller and a few others could hit 95, but the average was probably somewhere in the low 80s. Anyhow, this is all a long way around to saying that we're still influenced by the past; as recently as the 2000s, just about every team had at least one guy who threw 200 IP in a season. Now it is one out of five teams. The nature of starting pitching has changed. 200 IP today is close to what 250 IP was in the 90s, and 300 IP was in the 70s. That means that about 160 IP today - qualifying, basically - is the equivalent of the historical notion of 200 IP, at least in the preceding few decades. In other words, the expected IP of a regular starter is in the 160-180 IP; 180-200 is very good, and 200+ is exceptional. So if we want to adjust to today's context, we have to also adjust downward not only with innings pitched, but also WAR, because WAR is largely dependent upon IP. Historically, though, this has been somewhat counter-balanced by higher WAR/IP, with more Ks and fewer walks, at least among elite pitchers. In a way, the best starting pitchers today are sort of like closers who pitch 180+ innings. Now Cole has been a full time player since 2015 (he pitched 255 IP in 2013-14 total), which is eight full seasons (not counting 2020). Of those eight seasons, he's pitched 200+ IP six times. Here are the number of 200+ IP seasons from 2015-23: 2015-23 (103 player seasons of 200+ IP) 6 Cole 4 Greinke, Scherzer, Verlander 3 Archer, Bumgarner, deGrom, Mikolas, Nola, Sale, Samaradzija 2 Alcantara, Bieber, Corbin, Cueto, Hamels, Keuchel, Kluber, Lester, Porcello, Price, Quintana, Shields, Stroman 1 Bunch of guys Meaning, over the last eight full seasons, only 24 players have had multiple seasons with 200 IP, and only 11 with three or more seasons, and only 4 pitchers threw 200+ IP in half of those seasons or more. Over his career spanning back before 2015, Kershaw only did it 5 times, all in 2015 or before; Scherzer 6 times; and Verlander 12 times. Weaver, if you're wondering, did it 4 times. Before him, Lackey did it 6 times (4 for the Angels). Going back, Chuck Finley did it 9 times. Compare that to the "golden era" of aces: Maddux 18, Clemens 15, Johnson 14, Pedro 7. Maddux pitched 14 years in a row of 200+ IP, and 18 out of 19. Even the more fragile Pedro Martinez pitched more 200 IP seasons than any active player other than Verlander. Is this all due to velocity? No fucking clue, though I think it is the leading factor among, perhaps, several others. But some of those guys threw as hard as today's staff aces, but still managed to regularly throw 200 IP, sometimes 250. I would speculate--and it is speculation only--that other factors include over-training, poor nutrition (not in terms of what players eat, but the nutritional and mineral quality of food), and perhaps something akin to "baby-ing"...meaning, a perhaps erroneous view that coddling pitchers will reduce injuries, when it may actually be more the opposite. Baseball is ever-changing. While the trend from more to less innings is pretty consistent going back 145 years, it may be that we're at a nadir and will bounce back a bit, to at least 2000s levels. But who knows. It may also be that starting pitchers eventually become 3-4 IP "super-openers" and the line between starters and relievers gets blurred. Anyhow, lots of words, but it is an interesting subject.

Nice write-up, and definitely encourages excitement. I wouldn't be surprised to see Rada get a cup in September, at 19-years old (and in is his age 18 season). A lot depends on Ward, Adell, and Moniak, and if the Angels are competing. I do hope they don't rush him, though, so for me his starting future is really end of 2025/2026. Wonder if he can become a Grady Sizemore type; his upside seems to be what we thought Trout would be, but exceeded greatly (e.g. .280-.290 BA, 15-20 HR, 70+ walks, 30+ SB). Love the upside of some of the arms, and Soriano could prove to be a (reclaimed) clean peanut that finally pans out. Our 2027 rotation could be Detmers, Silseth, Soriano, Dana, and Urena, with Mederos as 6th/swingman. I still don't see Adams and maybe not Paris as starters, but who knows. Adams could be the best 4th outfielder in baseball - a really useful guy to have for defensive replacements and pinch-running. But maybe he turns into Mike Cameron Lite. Paris looks to me like a guy who, in a best-case scenario, is low-average to high-average in every facet of the game, making him a quality regular. But I do worry about his bat a bit. He's young, though.

Damn, you beat me to it.