Angelsjunky

As much as I dislike the money it is going to take to sign Snell, there's no doubt that it improves the rotation substantially - and not just in the rotation itself, but the depth. Meaning, not only does it replace Silseth with Snell in the rotation, but it replaces whichever shmuck is their first depth starter in AAA (Plesac, Rosenberg, Daniel, Mederos) with Silseth. In other words, signing Snell would mean: Snell/Silseth instead of... Silseth/Plesac

Just a warning: Once that phase begins, it doesn't really end. Best you can hope for is "fond eye-rolling," but that probably doesn't kick in until late teens and maybe not until deep in their 20s.

Can you see it now?

Should be self-explanatory - dark red is already paid (not including 2024), lighter red is still to be paid/played (including 2024). Money is adjusted using an inflation calculator, from the first year of the contract to 2024 dollars. I set it so that the $10M cells is slightly larger than 1 WAR, going with the idea that a free agent contract is "worth" roughly $8-9M per WAR, at least by market rate. So the idea being, that for a player's contract to be worth the money, the green part has to be about as tall as the dark red. All of these have fallen far from that, obviously. Matthews Jr produced -0.5 WAR as an Angel, but was paid $85M in 2024 money. But they're all bad, with Pujols being the worst so far. If he doesn't turn around, Rendon's will be similar to Albert.

Is he in the BSOHL, though?

Jesus, it is March 3 - let's not worry about Trout yet. Plus, he talked about fixing a perceived problem with his approach, so maybe he's trying to figure it out.

But it wasn't simply "suicide." It was a form of protest, albeit an extreme one. He sacrificed his life for a cause, and there was no sign of "mental illness" reported by people who actually know him. There is also a long tradition of this form of protest, at least going back to the famous Buddhist monk in the Vietnam war. Now I personally don't like the idea of this form of extreme protest, but I still respect the guy for giving himself fully to what he saw as extreme injustice and genocide. Not also who is doubling down on the mental illness narrative: Zionists/pro-Israeli. So we have BS like this: While a couple years before...

Good to know you just lap up MSM propaganda ("mentally ill").

And while I'm at it, Aaron Bushnell is a fucking badass. It was the most complete form of protest - he sacrificed himself for a cause, that of the genocide of Palestinians. And yes, he's having an impact: "If a man is capable of self-immolating, are we not capable of raising a united voice in Latin America?" - Nicolas Maduro calls for Global South Unity against Israeli barbarity citing the courage of the martyr Aaron Bushnell

LOL - that's literally 1%, and it is $150M going to food and peace-keeping vs. weapons. The genocidal edgelords can't compute.

LOL at this being a "war." It isn't a war, it is a genocide.

Is that a picture of your bunk?

Jason tapped into my thinking on Dana - I think it very unlikely that he'll be a factor in the rotation this year, except maybe in September. So I suppose he could be added to "others"...I'll add a sentence. I think I'm partially trying to not hype him up too much in my mind, because he does have legitimately high upside, but we've been burned so many times. I'd like to give him a bit of development before getting too excited.

As with the hitters, the Angels pitching staff has a good amount of variability, although perhaps a bit less, with almost every starter having a floor of a #4-5 and either #3 or, in one or two cases, #2 upside. I'll look at the bullpen in a third installment. A note on "worst-case scenarios:" For pitchers, even durable ones, there's always the lingering phantom of a blowout and/or Tommy John surgery. Rather than repeat myself for every pitcher, I'll only mention that if there is a significant injury concern beyond the norm. In other words, worst-case scenarios don't include the "absolute worst" of TJS, but are rather more focused on performance only. SP REID DETMERS Best: We finally come to a place in which Reid Detmers is not simply the "staff ace" by default (that is, there's no one else), but he's actually a legit #2ish starter. In this scenario, he irons out the kinks of the last few years and puts together a full season like one of his hot-streaks: a sub 3.50 ERA, 180+ IP, and ~4 WAR. Worst: More uneven performance like the last two years, which is still pretty good, but more Heaney-esque than Finley-esque. My Prediction: If there's any player that I feel relatively confident flat-out predicting that they hit their best-case scenario--or close to it--in 2024, it is Detmers. I don't think he'll reach his peak level yet, but I do think that he'll be more consistent and have more good starts than bad, so an ERA around 3.50, and more innings (170ish). Meaning, if he doesn't reach his best-case scenario, he'll be close. SP PATRICK SANDOVAL Best: He defies the warning signs and bounces back to 2022 level, with an ERA around 3.00 and even manages to reduce his pitch count and bit and surpasses 150 IP. Worst: The warning signs explode into a total poop-show. Sandoval struggles to throw strikes and his ERA creeps up to the mid-4.00 range. My Prediction: I'm worried - not hugely so (yet), but something just seems off. The good news is that while his velocity was down early last year, it trended up all season and his last start was not only the highest of the year, but one of the highest of his career. But in order to even take a step back to his 2022 level (3.7 WAR in 148 IP), he has to curb the walks. last year he walked 4.6 batters per 9 IP - up a full walk from the last two seasons - and his K-rate went down more than a full strikeout. So my prediction is...I don't know. Let's see how he looks after five starts. SP TYLER ANDERSON Best: Even in the best of possible worlds--or at least those that have a real chance of happening--it is hard to imagine Anderson re-capturing his 2022 performance (2.57 ERA, 4.0 WAR). But if you look at his FIP that year (3.30) and split the difference with his career rare (4.29), then you get around 3.80...which is about the performance level for ERA that I think a best-case Anderson is capable of. Worst: A continuation of last year. My Prediction: Not a lot of variance with Anderson. Split the difference between 2022 and 2023 and you have a decent #4 pitcher with an ERA in the low 4.00s and a solid number of innings. Anderson may even end up under-appreciated for much of the season, but eventually we'll learn to enjoy the fact that he's consistently putting up solid innings. Not sexy, but steady. SP GRIFFIN CANNING Best: Canning finally makes good on his potential and becomes a good (and consistent) #3 starter, even fringy #2, and embodies the leadership role that Ron Washington envisions for him. Worst: Aside from a revisit to the injuries of the last couple years, the worst-case scenario for Canning is that he doesn't progress further. Last year he produced a 4.32 ERA and 1.8 WAR in 127 IP, which means he's already a 2-3 WAR starter - which is either a good #4 or fringe #3. The FIP was almost exactly the same as his ERA (4.29), so it is possible that this is who he is. In other words, while much has been made of his comeback last year, it was really only to the solid level of 2019-20, which is as a solid #4. So the worst-case scenario is that is who Canning is, which isn't so bad but not what we hoped for. My Prediction: I think we'll see a consolidation of 2023's performance, but with slight overall improvement and more innings: an ERA in the 3.70-4.20 range, 150+ IP, 3+ WAR. In other words, he'll establish himself as a bonafide #3. SP CHASE SILSETH Best: We'll call this the "Angels fan scenario," because it is an outlook that only Angels fans seem to see for young Mr. Silseth. In this scenario, he makes good on the flashes of promise we've seen over the last couple years and becomes a true #2 starter - right there with Detmers (and perhaps a resurgent Sandoval and/or best-case scenario Canning) for best pitcher on the staff. Worst: More erratic performance, and is eventually relegated to a relief role. Or another alternative, it just takes a few years for him to find his best form - but it it won't be 2024. My Prediction: Silseth has the widest variance, at least over the pitchers above him. As I implied in the "Best" section, there seems to be a wide gap between Angels fans and analysts as to his upside; I can't think of an outlet that sees the potential that some of us see in him. Whether that is because of fan bias or knowledge is hard to say; probably some of both. Regardless, I think Silseth will become a good starter, but not the ace some envision - but a #2-3 pitcher who has some flashes of brilliance, but isn't consistent enough to be a true ace. In 2024, I think the inconsistency will still be a major factor, but the trajectory will be positive. SP ZACH PLESAC Best: Plesac picks up where he left off in 2019-20, four years ago, and becomes a solid mid-rotation starter. Worst: 2021-23 proves to be his true level; in other words, a back-end starter. There's also the lingering attitude concerns, so he's probably either going to do well or be released. My Prediction: Who knows? We probably need to see a few starts, but if he does well enough, I'm guessing he ends up as AAA depth but ends up with 10+ major league starts and/or in the bullpen. SP/RP JOSE SUAREZ Best: The time off brings things together for Suarez, and we see far more of the better version than the worse. He becomes a solid #3-4 starter or a very good middle reliever. Worst: Prone to bad spells, Suarez is relegated to the bullpen and becomes an innings-eating long reliever utilized in low-leverage situations. My Prediction: I personally like the idea of taking the idea of the "worst"--that of a long reliever/swingman--but with the hopes that he pitches well in that capacity, and can be relied upon in a variety of situations. He could be a very useful pitcher if used correctly, but I'm not sure that is as a regular starter. As things stand, he's probably third on the list of potential #5 starters, behind Silseth and Plesac. I imagine he'll pitch in a variety of situations, from spot starts to long relief. By season's end, we could be looking back at him as one of the quiet stalwarts on the pitching staff. OTHERS Davis Daniel making good on his potential probably means a solid #4 starter, which is more valuable than it sounds, but the not-so-young prospect (27 in June) has had a slow road: a delayed professional debut due to injury, a lost 2020 due to covid, solid development in 2021-22, then most of 2023 lost to injury. At this point, I'm only hoping for a serviceable relief pitcher and/or AAA depth. Kenny Rosenberg is the quintessential minor league "depth starter" - not the worst guy to start in a pinch, but a dime-a-dozen in AAA. Victor Mederos probably has the most upside of likely AAA starters, but needs more seasoning and is less likely to receive a major league gig than some of the others. Brett Kerry and Mason Erla (and several others) look like minor league depth for the foreseeable future. A brief note on Caden Dana. While I think it very unlikely that he factors into the major league rotation this year, he's on the cusp of being a legitimately good pitching prospect and perhaps on the fast-track for the major leagues. His minor league debut was very impressive, but I'd like to see more before getting too excited.

SHO GOES DEEP! First HR for the Los Angeles....Dodgers. https://www.mlb.com/video/shohei-ohtani-s-first-spring-homer-with-dodgers

I thought I'd screenshot this for the archives:

We can hope, right? Didn't know that about swing speed - that bodes well and implies he's right in his self-assessment, that it is more mechanical--which can be fixed--than actual skill erosion and physical decline. I maintain that Trout could still have a peak hitting year - a lot of all-time greats have some of their best years with the bat in their 30s, even if their defense and speed starts declining. Meaning, even though he's unlike to have a peak 9-10 WAR again, if he's healthy I could see a 180 wRC+.

I don't see an option for John Kruk.

I hear you on Hicks, @Chuck, but I had to cut off somewhere, so no Hicks, Thaiss, Sano, etc. Also, I have less of a sense of Hicks as he hasn't been on the Angels. I suppose the good news is that he seemed to bounce back a bit last year, after a dip in 2021-22. I see him as OF insurance more than anything else. The Angels want Trout/Ward and one or both of Moniak/Adell to break-out. Hicks is there in case they don't, or injury strikes.

Perhaps what defines the 2024 Angels, to me at least, is the wide range of variance between best and worst-case scenarios, that is such scenarios that exist within the realm of possibility. Meaning, nearly every player--with only a couple exceptions (e.g. Brandon Drury) has a huge range of reasonably possible outcomes. In what follows, I will look at the hitters and suggest what I see as their ceilings and floors, and where I think they'll end up in 2024 and beyond. Please note, this isn't an actual series of projections - it is more a ramble, with a bit of prediction thrown in for each player as to where I think they'll end up. I did a set of stat predictions a couple months ago which I deliberating didn't look back on, but these are more general. C LOGAN O'HOPPE Best: Becomes a bonafide first tier star catcher - not Adley Rutschman and maybe not Will Smith, but not far behind. In this best-case scenario, an off year is 3 WAR and only due to missing time; a typical year is more like 4-5 WAR, and he has one or two seasons above the 5 WAR mark. He easily becomes the all-time Angels WAR catcher leader, and before reaching free agency. Worst: Aside from the injury-bug, the worry would be that he doesn't really iron out his defensive kinks and struggles to make contact. Still, worst-case is the strong side of a platoon, but more of a 2 WAR in 100 games type than a 4 WAR in 120 games type. My prediction: The variance for Logan isn't huge, but there's still a range of outcomes, but none of them bad - more "solid to very good." I see more of a second tier catcher being the most likely scenario - a quality regular to borderline star type (3-4 WAR) who is a good captain of the team, sort of like Jason Varitek. Meaning, he won't be confused for Rutschman (let alone Gary Carter), but he'll have some years in the top five WAR for catchers, but mostly more in the #5-10 range. 1B NOLAN SCHANUEL Best: If he makes enough good contact to regularly hit .300, with his plate discipline he could put up gaudy OBPs. And if he develops even average power, he's a "3-4-5" threat and a star hitter. Sort of like Nick Johnson, if he had been able to stay healthy. Worst: With that downward swing, there's a chance he never develops any power at all and becomes a Doug Mientkiewicz type - a nice guy to have on your roster, but more of a platoon guy or fringe starter. My Prediction: I think he'll probably be more of a .280ish hitter than .300ish, but still have seasons above the .400 OBP mark. I'm more dubious about the power - his downward swing leads to a lot of ground balls, no matter how strong he gets. Still, he's too big and strong not to hit a few out of the park, but I see a peak season being something like .290/.420/.450, which is plenty good enough for me. 2B BRANDON DRURY Best: More of the same. Worst: More of the same, but getting older, and the defense gets shakier. My Prediction: Drury is probably the guy with the least variance of any hitter likely to see substantial playing time: What you see (or what we've seen) is what you get. I think the only questions are how much playing time he gets and where he plays, which depends largely on Rengifo and Rendon. So my prediction is "more of the same," but not sure how much of it. He's a useful guy to have around, but he'd be really useful if he could back-up Rendon (he played 67 games at 3B in 2022). SS ZACH NETO Best: I like the Dustin Pedroia comp, with a significantly lower batting average but playing Gold Glove defense - so similar overall value. This is pretty optimistic, though, but I could see it happen. Worst: Has trouble getting away from the injury bug, and becomes known as an undisciplined hitter, but still a solid starting shortstop. But rather than the 5 WAR stud of the best-case scenario, he's more of a 2-3 WAR guy. My prediction: Zach Neto is a ballplayer - I just love the energy he brings to the team, sort of the anti-Rendon. I do think he'll be prone to occasional injuries and never be quite the hitter Pedroia was, but he'll have some really good seasons, with a good probability of reaching his best-case scenario, at least in his peak. But it might take a few ups and downs to get there. I think 2024 will be a continuation and gradual improvement from 2023, so something like .250/.330/.420. 3B ANTHONY RENDON Best: He makes baseball a top priority, avoids the injury bug and has a bit of a career renaissance, playing about 350 games over the last three years of his contract and putting up 10+ WAR. Yeah, right. Worst: More of the last three years. Arte releases him sometime in 2025. My Prediction: I can't imagine how it can possibly continue to be as bad as it has been the last few years, but I would be surprised if Rendon ever plays 130 games again, and maybe not even 120. Part of the problem is that he's a momentum hitter and is never healthy enough to get into a groove. If he manages to play 110-120 games, he'll put up better numbers (maybe .270/.380/.450), but he's never going to be a star again. And that is a pretty big "if." I honestly don't know what to predict, as I could see a continuation of the last few years, or a scenario where the youthful energy of some of the guys above him on this list rubs off and he has a nice next couple years as the Roger Dorn of the Angels. LF TAYLOR WARD Best: He's not only back, but he finds the star hitter form that we've seen for parts of the last two years, and is an elite hitter for the next few years, maybe something like .290/.370/.550 with 30 HR. Worst: He's never the same - either neurological, psychological, or just an inability to stay healthy. Ends up as a 4OF/DH type. My Prediction: Ward has one of the widest range of possibilities on a team with a lot of players with a wide range of possibilities. For whatever reason, I remain bullish on Ward: I think he's going to have several really good years in the 140 wRC+, 4-5 WAR range, and be the team's second best hitter, at least in 2024. But I've been over-optimistic before. CF MIKE TROUT Best: Let's play a game of imagination and time travel to the end of Trout's contract in 2030 and do a career retrospective. It turns out that Trout just had some terribly bad luck for a few years in 2021-23 (they were all different injuries, right?!), but then righted the ship in 2024 and had a career renaissance. Maybe not quite vintage Trout, but he had several years around 7 WAR, with one truly special one in the 8-9 WAR range, winning his 4th MVP award. He started trending down in 2027 or so at age 35, but it was gradual and he finished his career with 127 WAR, just edging Stan Musial out of the top 10. You might say that I'm a dreamer...but I'm not the only one... Worst: Ken Griffey III. He'll still hit, but the injury-prone label is real, and the hitting--while flashing towards Ye Olde Days at times--is inconsistent and not what it was. It will be hard to watch for the next seven seasons, as Trout just squeaks above the 100 WAR mark for his career, which would be under 30 WAR in his last eleven seasons after 70 WAR in his first eight. My Prediction: I'm going to be bullish again, as I think Trout could do something similar to 2022 (it was just a year ago, afterall); with a bit of better health (130ish games), he could reach the 7 WAR mark. The next few years will be a bit of a comeback for him, just not the Trout of 2012-19. He'll probably miss chunks of time over the rest of his career, but have good spells and just pass Mickey Mantle (112.3) on the fWAR chart. OF MICKEY MONIAK Best: He learns to take a pitch and builds on 2023, but with more walks. Not a star, but a good overall player who is known for dangerous spells when he's hitting everything. Worst: No plate discipline and 2023's good parts turn out to be a fluke. Minor league depth or an erratic 4th outfielder. My Prediction: Remember Jeff Francoeur? That's the type of career I think Moniak might have, with minor cosmetic differences. He probably has no place starting for a contender, but will find gigs on various teams over the next decade. I do think he loses a starting job to the next guy on this list, sometime before the ASB and, if Trout, Ward, and Adell are healthy, could be shipped off in July. OF JO ADELL Best: Basically what we thought his upside would be a couple years ago. Adell kind of reminds me of Dave Winfield, but with more power and significantly less contact ability. Maybe it is the tall, athletic build. But the best-case scenario might be Winfield in 1982 (.280/.331/.560 with 37 HR), but maybe even more HR and a bit lower average. Worst: More of the same and the Angels swap him for a rondon in July to some team thinking they can do better (which, knowing the Angels, they probably will). My Prediction: Is it foolish to think that this could finally be the year? He probably won't be the star we hoped for, but he could make enough contact and develop enough discipline to leverage that power. In other words, as much as my mental faculties say that Adell is a bust, my gut still sees a good ball player. I still think he'll hit 40 HR at some point in his career; probably not this year because he's unlikely to get enough plate appearances--and I think needs several years of building success to get there--but I could see something like 110-120 games, .250/.330/.500 with 25+ HR, with even better numbers in 2025. IF LUIS RENGIFO Best: Take Rengifo's second half numbers last year (.318/.374/.587 in 47 games) and extend them over a full season, but reduce them a bit for likelihood that he's just a slow starter and he's simply unlikely to be that good for a full season. But it foretells the future. In this scenario, everything comes together and Rengifo hits .290/.350/.500 with solid 2B defense. Can we dream? Worst: Basically more of the same - which isn't so bad, but the problem is the defense - which is ok, I guess. But he never quite gets out of the fringe starter/UT role. My Prediction: I'm a fan and think he'll find another level in 2024. Maybe not my best-case scenario, but if you imagine that he'll continue his arc of improvement from 2022 to 2023 to 2024, he could hit .270/.340/.450 or better. Now if he could only polish up that defense a bit... Pitchers to come...

No tennis players. At the very least, Novak Djokovic deserves consideration, and probably Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. Tennis requires the full range of athletic skills - these guys are among the fittest people on planet earth, and develop all kinds of skills.