Angelsjunky

The latter.

I've said it before and will say it again: The biggest thing the Angels need to add to be competitive in 2024 is...better performance health from the players that they already have. It doesn't matter what they add if they don't get ~250 games out of Trout and Rendon and for the majority of young players to develop positively. The farm just doesn't have the depth to compensate, and I don't see a possible configuration of free agents that would fit the bill, either. They need the talent they have to perform. Free agent signings are secondary.

In other news, why do I have to be a fan of the Angels and Bills? Am I a masochist?

You want Chuck to fly to wherever Angels 1961 lives and check on him?

Yes, I get it. But I also think it is valid to scratch your head at signing Stephenson before, say, addressing the rotation. My point was that Stephenson is a bit like nice cuff-links; buying them before the suit is set can seem a bit strange (though you may be right that it implies that they're going to put together a nice, or at least nicer, suit). I personally am in more of a "wonder what Minasian will do" space than feeling strongly that he should go one way or the other. I think the team as it stands is better than many fear, but not quite good enough to be taken seriously as a contender (that is, I see them as a roughly .500 team or just below). Given what's available in free agency and what the Angels have on the team and as trading parts, I don't think they can up that substantially. Meaning, savvy moves and/or a big splash or two might get them to the 85+ win level, but I don't think much better than that. What I think Minasian is doing is trying to at least give them some chance to be competitive in 2024 without destroying the future. Meaning, a bit here, a bit there, and hope for the best - but not take an approach of desperation and trying to go all-in on winning now. To some extent he looks like he's trying to back into an 85-win team: nothing flashy, but a few clean peanuts and sneaky good players (like Stephenson). Given the Angels' sparse resources, whatever Minasian does will inevitably involve a significant amount of risk. Stephenson is a good example: he could now be the elite reliever he was in the second half and be a bargain, or he could regress to career norms and be an overpaid average reliever.

Taken in the context of what we've seen so far--that Minasian's moves so far imply more treading water--it seems odd to pay premium dollars on a reliever. Meaning, the type of player that either a contender signs to strengthen an already solid bullpen, or part of a larger group of moves by a team making a run of it. The Angels aren't the former and have shown no signs of being the latter. But really, judgment should be reserved until the end of the postseason.

This happens to nearly every team, but...the Angels seem particularly bad about it. Maybe we're still repaying the karmic debt of the Trout Heist of '09. Another example is Sam Bachman over Andrew Painter, who looks like a very good starter. Or trading Kyle Bradish, who was kind of paired with Aaron Hernandez in the minors but seen as slightly inferor. So the Angels trade Bradish (for Dylan Bundy), who goes on to become a legit front-end starter for the Orioles (4th in CY voting this year), and Hernandez stagnates in the minors. This implies that it is a two-fold problem: talent recognition (scouting) and development. The Angels have been bad at both.

Well said. The vast majority of these signings don't work out, or at least haven't for the Angels. And the focus for the Angels, as you said, should be on developing internal talent - which includes scouting. Right now I don't have much faith in the Angels' international scouting. The "domestic" names you mention point to some ability to recognize States-side talent, but how many international signings have worked out for the Angels over the last decade?

I agree with both their sleepers and busts.

I'm confused as to how the international signings work. I mean, why don't the Angels get any of the top guys like De Vries? It also seems like they tend to have a small pool of signing money

This thread is bordering on ghey. I mean, Erstad Grit is hot for Freddie Freeman, and IP and Toby are basically touching penis tips in front of us.

From the article: "I'm just hoping to tweak a hamstring early on in the season, so I can stay home again and watch Telemundo."

I hear you on Ward - and have my doubts as well. But we can hope, right? As for a "solid middle of the order corner outfielder," as I said to BTH, I'm not sure who that could be. The options are sparse, pretty much only Bellinger. Now give Arte's track record, Bellinger for 8/$200M (at least) is exactly the type of move I'd expect the Angels to make, but I'm hoping against it. After that, who is there? Jorge Soler? He bounced back a bit last year (.250/.341/.512, 126 wRC+) but is 32 and his previous three years were all around 100 wRC+. He's now five years removed from that 48 HR, 136 wRC+ season. As I said above, I'd rather they take a flier on someone like Austin Meadows or Kyle Lewis on a cheapish one-year "prove it" deal, and go with depth in the outfield over someone with the a MOTO patina or the long-term risk of Bellinger. A trade would require giving up more valuable assets like Rengifo. So go with Trout, Ward, Adell, Moniak and a depth guy and how that three of five of them are healthy and productive. We still might end up seeing Cabbage or Adams, but that's probably inevitable anyways.

I highly doubt Daniel starts the year in the rotation ahead of those five, barring injury. Right now--assuming no further signings--I'd guess the Opening Day rotation is Detmers, Sandoval, Anderson, Canning, Silseth, with Daniel the 6th starter and Bachman on course to be stretched out (gross).

Devon White's 1992 season is the third highest Def Runs of any outfielder in major league history at 35.1, behind only two seasons by Andruw Jones. He's got five seasons in the top 100. Jones has 7 of the top 22 - probably the best defensive outfielder in history.

Sure, if there was someone available, but the only clear upgrade in the OF is Bellinger, and he's too expensive (and risky). I'd rather go with Adell/Moniak, and maybe get some minor league depth, or possibly a dice roll on someone like Kyle Lewis or Austin Meadows as a platoon option.

Jim Abbott: Went straight to the majors, and with one arm, no less. Third in CY voting in '91. Traded to the Yankees after '92 for JT Snow and a couple of relievers.

I'd like to hear which prospects people think fit into these three categories: A - Players who have a solid chance of breaking into "good prospects" - that is, chances of being 45+ or even 50 FV guys by year's end. Meaning, guys who have even an outside chance of being top 100. B - Players who might surprise. In other words "don't sleep on" these guys. The guys above aren't surprises - we're just hoping they fulfill their potential. These are more prospects who were drafted as lottery picks and/or have raw potential that is under the radar. Guys who could strengthen their prospect credit to "legit." C - Players who are cooked. "We've seen enough;" barring something unforeseen, these guys will soon be forgotten. Think Kevin Maitan or William Holmes a couple years ago. For me, the ones that come to mind are: HITTERS A - Nelson Rada is the obviously pick here. While he's very young and has tons of time to develop, I think 2024 will tell us more about his upside - whether his surprising plate discipline and solid overall play is due to having the experience of being around baseball all his life (isn't his dad a manager somewhere?) and thus might have limited upside and is more of a future platoon/bench guy, or if there's legit potential there to be a good player or better. Kyren Paris - he acclimated to AA pretty well, was overmatched in the majors, and I'm hoping goes back to AA (or AAA) to take another step forward and be ready to fill in during the second half. I'm starting to doubt his chances of being an above average regular, but he could become a really good bench guy or solid starter. Probably more of an A/B guy. B - Werner Blakely had an awful year after looking like a gem in 2022. I'm hoping he gets back on track. Denzer Guzman has seen his upside fall slowly, but he's a guy to keep an eye on. Looks a bit like another Livan Soto, though. Jadiel Sanchez looks like he could turn into a decent bench guy. For some reason I'm keeping my eye on Cole Fontenelle - something about him (or maybe its just the name). Maybe Joe Redfield, too. Dario Laverde was a bit of a darling a year ago but got injured, I think. Worth watching. Similarly with several more Latin guys: Randy DeJesus, Jorge Ruiz, Kevyn Castillo, Luis Torres, Cristian Garcia, Capri Ortiz, Oswaldo Patino, etc. Too soon to say on these guys, but one or two might turn into something legit. C - Jordyn Adams is teetering. His only major league skill is his speed, and the Angels don't really have room for a 5th outfielder who can't hit. That whole international group from a few years ago - Arol Vera, Alex Ramirez, maybe Adrian Placencia, who is either B or C, can't decide. A really disappointing group (especially with Quero gone). D'Shawn Knowles, but we probably could have said that a year ago. I think the Sonny DiChiara Experiment is soon to be over; I'm hoping he saved some of his $173K signing bonus to start a Dunkin Donuts franchise. PITCHERS A/B - I say "A/B" because I don't think either of these guys jumps to 50 FV yet, but these are the two pitchers I think have the most upside (at least among those who haven't seen the majors). Walbert Urena and Caden Dana. Both could be more widely recognized by year's end as legit pitching prospects with significant upside. B - After the two guys in the A/B category, I'm most hopeful about Victor Maderos, Jorge Macheco, and Ryan Costieu. Costieu seems like the type of guy the Angels would have traded in years past and ends up breaking out for someone else (e.g. Clevinger or Bradish, or I'm guessing, Jake Madden and Mason Albright). Mason Erla and Davis Daniel could rebuild their value, which dipped due to health last year. Daniel pitched quite well in the AFL. Could be guys we see as fill-ins later in the year, similarly with Eric Torres. Joel Hurtado looks somewhat promising as a reliever. Jack Kochanowicz: I want to believe (but don't yet). Barrett Kent is obviously worth watching and could be legit by year's end. Sleepers: Erik Rivera, Sadrac Franco. Not bullish, but could still turn into a major league reliever, especially Rivera now that he's done with hitting. C - Aaron Hernandez. Remember when he was drafted ahead of Kyle Bradish, aka "Minasian's Clevinger?" I'd probably put Kochanowicz here if some of y'all weren't still in on him.

I agree, with the caveat that "solid position player" could just be good, reliable platoon types. I mean, someone like Maicer Izturis or the good version of Brian Goodwin. The operative phrase is: "quality depth." The point being, I don't see an obvious position to upgrade - not with who they have. The problem is that they already have four major league outfielders, so either they upgrade by trading someone (Adell or Moniak) or they try to find a minor league clean peanut. Similarly with the IF: Neto and Schanuel are here no matter what; hopefully Rengifo, too. They need a back-up middle infielder and a plan for when Rendon gets hurt. This is where having a shitty farm really hurts - typically you'd have guys to try out in case of injury. Unfortunately I don't think that's Jordyn Adams and Kyren Paris was called up way too soon (maybe second half this year). In other words, they need OF and IF versions of Francisco Mejia. I forgot about Livan Soto. He actually could be our Maicer Izturis, in a best-case scenario.

Evidence: The 2002 had no real superstars - just a bunch of good players - guys from solid regulars to borderline stars. Note the lack of "black holes"....just Nieves and Fabregas were significantly below replacement level, and they only contributed 196 PA, or a total of -1.3 negative WAR from 215 PA. Compare that to some of the recent teams: In 2023 the Angels got -5.0 WAR from about 1100 PA worth of players; or in 2022, it was even worse: -7.1 WAR from about 2,000 PA. That means about a third of PA were from below replacement performers.

Agreed. Schanuel won't have too high of a WAR due to him playing 1B and, of course, the lack of power. Fangraphs' WAR didn't like O'Hoppe's defense last year - let's hoppe that's just small sample size and/or breaking into the big leagues.

Gey

Wow, 20 years. I think I came over from Big Del's little corner a year or so after Chuck started up. I suppose I was a bit faithful to Del and was just comfortable there, but then it fizzled and I remember being dragged over the coals here for awhile, in the usual "manly phasing" ritual. IIRC, I was the main stat guy for a bit...not sure when @Inside Pitch and @Docwaukee started up, and of course now its cool to be a nerd.

Yes, exactly - I tried to say just that in the intro and to my follow-up reply to Chuck. I think one or two (or, if we're lucky, three) have better years than I prediction, but more have worse. The projections are taken in a vacuum.