Rally Gorilla

I'm fine is Sosh leads the Astros. He's not the most energetic 61 y.o.and he's emotionally uptight. I don't see the Astros players responding well to that.

....just glad the Rangers didn't get him.

Grienke will be 36 and Verlander 37, with a ton of miles on those arms.

I completely agree with all of this....and I'll add that they will also have to face some tough choices on who to keep and who to let go as all those ill-gotten high draft picks start to want real money.

Scenario A: The Astros aging aces stay healthy and the team overcomes the scandal and loss of their GM and Manager. Angels just improve incrementally. Astros: 98 wins A's: 94 wins Angels: 87 wins Rangers: 87 wins Mariners: Who cares? Scenario B: Adell is beast in rookie year, and other improvements see the Angels take off like a rocket. Age and/or injury catches up with one or both of the Astros aging aces...and they have trouble overcoming shame and managerial changes. Angels 95 Wins A's 94 Wins Astros: 92 Wins Rangers 90 Wins Mariners: Who cares?

They key for me was targeting the GM. A lifetime ban would have been even better....but this got him fired and cost him a minimum of one year salary and may even see him out of baseball. That's gonna make other GM's take pause. Otherwise, the Astros profited from cheating overall in terms of profit, fanbase, and talent accumulation. The dollar amount of the fine is a just a joke in these days. Ownership was rewarded for hiring scum and letting them do their scum schtick. But, again, putting the hurt on the GM is gonna help this be less of an issue down the road.

Also, IMHO, once a lineup reaches a certain point, lineup protection becomes real and each batter's effect becomes more than just additive. With a massive upgrade at 3B, possible contributions by Adell at some point, and the removal of a black hole at catcher, etc.....we could see guys like Trout, Simmons, Upton, etc have great years at the plate. I know some people think lineup protection is a myth....and maybe it is in some situations, but I believe Trout is going to get better pitches to hit and walk less with a strong lineup hitting behind him.

You really missed the whole point. People are talking about possible paths for the Angels to win the AL West...not what will happen for sure.

I've been kind of resigned to the fact that the Astros will take the AL West again in 2020. They'll be weaker this year with the loss of Cole and others, but they still have a boatload of talent and they esepcially outshine us in the SP department. However, the thought just struck me that....maybe... we got a shot at the AL West this season. Here is is the logic fueling my clearly homerish dream: 1) With Cole gone, they will be relying more heavily on Verlander and Grienke. Grienke will be 36 with 2,800 IP on his arm....Verlander, 37 with nearly 3,000 IP. Maybe they finish 1 & 2 in CY voting. Maybe they both lose effectiveness through injury or just age. 2) Without knowing when the changup is coming, it'll be harder for their hitters to stay in the groove. Maybe some will be unaffected, while others see their numbers drop. 3) Whatever penalties the MLB may hand out to the 'Stros. 4) The Astros may be a bit demoralized over being outed as cheaters...and the resulting scorn as they travel. 5) Finally, maybe everything gels for the Angels and we just kick butt in 2020, passing up the A's and others. I dream a dream....

I see that as the Angel's mistake over the years...a "winning now" philosophy that sees us shipping off most of our prospects....and, in the post-steroid era, that just doesn't work anymore. We don't "win now" and it just digs us into a deeper hole.

If we're just talking about 2020, then I might agree with you. Adell could only have a minor impact, like Mike Trout did his rookie season (.5 WAR)....or he could be a monster out of the gates like Albert was his rookie season (6.6 WAR). So, who the heck knows? But, since we are all getting out the crystal balls.... In 2021 and beyond, Adell can be reasonably expected to give us the power in RF that we have been missing. And, with some luck, we could have another superstar to go along with our slugging CF'er and 3B. If that happens, say goodbye to our playoff drought.

The whole story about Angels interest in Clevenger seems a little bit off to me. I guess I find it hard to believe that they would let him go for anything less than Adell....and I don't think the Angels have any intention of letting Adell go. So, why is this even a thing? Does this just boil down to PR? Kick the tires on a pretty good pitcher so we can say we tried? EDIT: I also want to add that I agree we shouldn't let Adell go for a player like Clevenger. No prospect is a sure thing, but Adell looks like he could be a monster in RF (at controlled cost) for a very long time.

Ok, I think it's reasonable to put us in the top third of MLB offenses. If we want to get unreasonable and say everyone stays/gets healthy, plays up to their abilities...we could be crazy good. I'm already looking forward to seeing opposing pitchers try to figure out how to pitch to Trout with LaStella on base and Rendon, Ohtani and Upton waiting for their turns at the plate.

2020 is going to be amazing! Like being in a movie! I'm very excited! My big splash is going to earn me some big cash, and this makes me very happy.

But....the Reds finished with a .463 record and 16 games out. That's part of the reason I was glad we didn't end up with Cole....one guy, by himself, wasn't going to get us competitive and the contract was likely to keep us from making the many moves it is going to take to get us there.

I was against paying what the elite FA SP's got this off season. But, given the current market, I'd be ok with a slight overpay to lower tier SP. There would not be too much risk in that.

Well, it's all best guesses, right? IMHO, Stassi and Bemboom don't have what it takes to be even be replacement level backups. I wouldn't risk keeping one of them and crossing my fingers. It just wouldn't cost that much to bring in two guys who can be reasonably expected to do better. It's not hard to improve upon awful. Regarding the pitching, I think Bundy and Teheran will actually do a lot of good. Again, it's not hard to improve upon awful. But, I still think we are one mid-level guy away from giving us a reasonable shot at a consistently mid-level rotation that can overcome injuries and avoid overworking the BP again in 2020. Didn't you also post that you'd like to see the team add another arm?

Yeah... well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man I don't see WAR as strictly additive when some areas of a team are black holes. If we have terrible catching again in 2020, some of the contributions from other positions will simply be wasted. Same with the rotation.. Having a great game and seeing your team squander that contribution not only costs games, it also has a demoralizing effect that can bring down a whole team. I see low to mid 80 W's as a fair guess under those circumstances. Sounds like we aren't that far apart on our opinions on how the team can do if we do address the catching and additional SP positions. I still think we need two upgrades at the catching position. IMHO, neither Stassi or Bemboom should even be a backup.

The team was wildly unbalanced in 2019. We had black holes at 1B, C, and SP. Contributions from other positions were less likely to translate into W's....especially from terrible SP and an exhausted BP. The overall effect is demoralizing for the whole team. Now, in 2020, I think we've already helped ourselves with the additions of Bundy and Tehran, who can reasonably expected to perform at higher-than-dumpter-fire levels. We've also added a real-deal star 3B. I also assume Maddon won't accept such bad production from 1B in 2020, giving guys like LaStella a chance to up production there. I'm also assuming/hoping that we have a plan for RF until Adell earns that spot. But I don't see any in-house solutions at catcher and I believe the rotation can seriously use at least one more arm that can reasonably be expected to perform at mid-levels. So, IMHO, if we don't bring in two catchers and another SP, the team will remain unbalanced and many of the contributions from the rest of the team will be wasted. If we get more balanced, opposing pitchers are going to have to face Trout, Rendon, and Ohtani with the game on the line a lot more often....and that will translate to more W's, a more energized team, and a heck of a lot of fun.

If the team makes no further moves to improve the roster: 82 Wins, and another year on the sidelines. If we can bring in some guys who can be reasonably expected to play mid-level at C and another mid-level SP: A chance for mid-90's Wins, a fun to watch team, and a real shot at a WC.

FA SP: Ivan Nova (2 yr / $10M per) FA C : Jason Castro (3 yr / $8M per)

I knew someone would "fix" AP's age....I didn't want to deny you your fun.

Mike Trout as 19 y.o. rookie: 40 games / .5 WAR Anthony Rendon as 23 y.o. rookie: 96 games / 0.0 WAR So, it's no sure thing Adell is going to make a huge impact on the team this season. On the other hand 21 y.o. rookie AP played 161 games with a 6.6 WAR, so there's that...

After watching this: I'm getting pretty jazzed to see what hi-jinks Rendon and Simmons can come up with in 2020.

edit: posted twice.