JustATroutFan

30 minutes ago, nando714 said:

Madden is done such a great job this year with all the injuries and little to none provided by the front the angels front office 

our line up is absolutely trash and we hover around .500. 

You could take even the best managers in MLB history and put them in the place of Maddon and they would still look bad with this pitching staff, especially the bullpen. And since he's managed the Angels, they haven't had deep pitching staffs. 

Pujols 0-3 on the day that this thread was made, which is just funny. But what's funnier is Bellinger has a .156/.275.262 slash line in 141 ABs for the 2021 regular season. Bellinger (garbage) is sooo like Trout. #Pujolssucks

18 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I disagree that the Trout window is "shut." The Angels have about 75% of a very good team: great offense, especially once everyone is back and Marsh and maybe Adell and Thaiss are up; good core young starters. They just need one very good starter and a bunch of relievers and they're a 90+ win team next year. IMO, of course.

Of course they're not completely out of it right now, but unless they go on a crazy win streak, I'd rather see them cut their losses and bring in guys who can help in the future, then hold onto diminishing hopes in squeezing into the post-season. I think their chances are probably like 10-15% of making it, which isn't enough not to invest in the future.

Worst-case scenario is that they don't sell or, worse, trade off prospects for rentals, and then don't make the playoffs, and lose Cobb and Raisel to free agency anyway.

It just seems like Trout is destined to be this generation's Ted Williams or Griffey Jr. The Red Sox wasted most of Williams' great seasons by not even qualifying for the postseason but the Mariners did the same thing during Griffey's prime, failing to build a solid starting pitching staff. Yes, the Big Unit was special when he took the mound but that was just one arm that the Mariners fully developed. People are saying that the Angela are wasting Trout's greatness for years now and they're not wrong. But in the case if the Angels win the World Series and Trout puts up something like a .330/.450/.600 slash line that same postseason, how much would if affect Trout's legacy? Would anyone ever have the guts to say that Trout's clutch or not? There was an article that I think you talked about a few months back on whether Trout would want Reggie's career over his because of World Series rings. I don't know Trout personally but if he rather have his career than Reggie's, I wouldn't be mad about it. Once Trout hangs up his cleats, he'll have to focus on his life, which includes his family. Winning World Series won't get a player big money. Playing like a superstar will get you a lot of money. 

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I remember ichiromania, but did Matsui get the same fanfare? I cant remember.

I remember Nomomania, too. 

Id say he was bigger than Ichiro that first year, but might be remembering wrong.

Nomomania and Ichiromania both changed MLB. Nomomania inspired many Japanese stars to come over to the United States. Nomo was the first Japanese All-Star at the Major League level. Ichiromani inspired many position players from Japan to come over into the United States to play in MLB. Ichiro was actually to first Japanese positional player who had success in the big leagues. If it weren't for the greatness that he showcased in 2001, it's possible that Matsui would have been in the Major Leagues later after 2003, or might not have made it at all. That's part of Nomo's and Ichiro's legacy on the game. MLB is going to expand even more globally within the next century. Some future MLB star from a different county that is not the United States will probably make baseball an interest one day the way Venezuela and Nomo/Ichiro did. 

Ohtani has helped changed MLB with his great play. He's helped put fans into the seats, especially Japanese fans. And if they are not coming to ballgames to see him play, they are certainly watching him on television from Japan. It's like when Ichiro came to the United States. Ohtani and Ichiro, two box office players. MLB benefits from it, knowing that it's a business. Anyone who benefits the game is not bad for the game. 

There's something about these threads that is good/bad luck to the players' threads. I remember making a Trout thread about Trout slumping and his first game after making that thread, he ends up having a good game. 

4 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Pujols has 4 HR with the Dodgers ahead, 3 HR while trailing, and 1 with a tied game.

With the Dodgers…

• Ahead: .288/.309/.519/.828
• Tied: .259/.310/.407/.718
• Behind: .278/.316/.556/.871

.913 OPS in high leverage situations, .750 in low leverage.

Over half of his home runs with them are in garbage time. Or not exactly those that really matters. I can only recall one home run that he hit with the Angels that was a walk-off, which was against the Red Sox in 2014 during a game that lasted over 17 innings. He's a sorry player and deserves to be hated. Never did jack with the Angels, never won them a single World Series. Selfish player who is chasing personal achievements like 700 home runs. If it weren't for those juiced baseballs that he played with from 2001-2009, he might have been done by now. 

His slash line with the Dodgers is inflated because he's hit a lot of garbage time home runs. The guy was great at hitting garbage time home runs as an Angel. He never won the Angels a World Series and will be remembered as just another bum who suited up for the Angels along with Hamilton, Matthews Jr., CJ Wilson, and many more. If the clown ever returns to Angel Stadium, I hope the fans boo the fool for ruining the team. F Pujols! 

16 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Yep, three true outcomes is boring to this traditionalist.

Put the ball in play, and make the defense beat you.   And mix in good and aggressive base running.

Keep the bunting for hits, but unless it’s a pitching duel, ditch the sac bunt.

I’m fine with HRs, Ks, and BBs; just now as the largely consensus outcomes.

The irony of the 2002 Angels is that the 2002 World Series MVP (Glaus) was a great example of a three true outcome player. But Glaus was pretty much an outlier on that Angels' team. They had so many guys who were great at putting the ball in play like Eckstein, Anderson, and Erstad. Salmon as good at putting the ball in play that 2002 regular season, which was a 18.0 strikeout rate, solid for a power hitter. Of course, putting the ball in play can lead to a lot of double plays but more often than not, it helps more than does not. 

25 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

Fletcher puts veterans like Rendon and Upton to shame.

Why? He’ll never have the careers that Rendon or Upton has had since both guys were good power hitters who got on base at a good clip for a long time. 

Outside of 2012, which was only because that was his first great season in the pros and it's hard to give the mantle of "best player in all of baseball" to someone who's great for only one season, this might be the only other season since Trout became Trout that he might not be the clear-cut best player in all of baseball because of deGrom's dominance on the mound. But this is assuming that deGrom doesn't go on the IL an is out for a long time. If he isn't out for that long and continues to dominate hitters, then we would finally have a debate on whether Trout is the best player in the sport for the first time since forever. Looking at his track record, deGrom is a lot like Trout when it comes to dominance. What he lacks is not being elite at baseball for two seasons (2016 and 2017), unlike Trout, who was at elite-level performer from 2012-2019, not counting 2020 because it was a small sample size of games. From 2012-2019, Trout was an elite hitter for every single regular season while playing excellent defense in center field overall, even though he had some tough years there, according to defensive WAR. But even if Trout is not the best player in the game next season, I wouldn't even care. He will always be the best player in all of baseball in the 2010s, unanimously. He's heads-and-shoulders above his peers like Kareem in the 1970s, Jordan in the 1990s, and LeBron in the 2010s. Trout is a once-in-a-century player. I don't see anyone else ever doing what he's done before the age of 30 in 100 years, maybe a lot longer. 

5 minutes ago, Jason said:

Why doesn’t Ward play like this more often?

He's an average player, at best, which is okay when you have proven hitters like Trout and Upton on your team. He's just filling in. 

Giolito with an amazing performance against a great Astros' offense with just 1 earned run on just three hits, eight strikeouts, and no walks in a complete game masterpiece. 

31 minutes ago, nando714 said:

Sosh was good? He held the organization back nearly 7 seasons  

I wouldn't give him as much blame as I would with the Angels' front office. Just poor scouting and bad free agent signings like with Hamilton and Wilson. Of course, Scioscia was part of the problem. He kept on putting Pujols at cleanup even though he wasn't the best option later down the road. Another reason to blame him was that he stopped playing small ball. There were seasons were Trout wasn't stealing bases even though we all know that Trout is at his best when he's showing off his all-around skills. There's no way that a guy like Trout should have less than 18-20 steals a season with his speed, no way! Maddon's not perfect but he's done a solid job considering the circumstances, especially with the lousy pitching staff. If there is one good thing that comes to mind about Maddon, he's the one guy who is pretty good, although not perfect, at getting the best out of his players, either in the lineup (Upton hitting leadoff, for example) or shifting his defenders around to help pitchers. He's actually changed the game due to shifting. He was really the first manager to consistently used the shifts. A lot of skippers have followed suit. 

40 minutes ago, nando714 said:

Not trolling straight facts 

look at our line up made of bandaids 

if I showed you the starting 9 from last night and told you they were a .500 ball club in the middle of july , you’d call me a liar

Maddon is light years better than ausmus and mr flies in the ointment sosh. Hell if we get hot we’re back in this thing. But I doubt we can beat the Mariners twice in a row. Dipoto really built a great ball club up there. 
 

Correct. Fat Mike was lucky to be given some great players like Trout, Ohtani, and Vlad during his tenure with the club, not to mention a whole bunch of other really good players like Hunter, Pujols (2012 and 2014 but still overpaid), Figgins (as an everyday player), Weaver (a very good player, at worst, but had some superstar seasons as a starting pitcher), and K-Rod (once he became an All-Star) and he still didn't win jack with them. And unlike Maddon so far as Angels' manager, he had a bunch of solid pitching staffs and still came up small in the postseason, if he even got them there. Hell, even the 2002 Angels had a deep team. They might not have had a superstar player like Trout but they still had some really good players like Glaus, Salmon, and Anderson in the lineup, good arms like Washburn and Lackey leading the starting rotation, as well as a very, very deep bullpen. 

At this point, just call Glaus out of retirement. Or Figgins. 

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

[VENT]

Since 2017, the Angels have played 635 games; Trout's played 477 of them, or 75.1%. That's right: the so-called best player in the game has been a three-quarters-time player for half of his career (the last five of ten seasons).

Remember when this guy was the best player in baseball? If he can't stay healthy, how can he be the best player?

I'm bitching, I know, but his slow recovery is frustrating and, given that he hasn't even started running, I don't see him returning for weeks to come.

He's now down to 10th in the majors in WAR over the last two seasons. I know, injury. But that's part of the picture. Tatis Jr leads all players with 6.9 WAR over 2020-21. Trout's at 4.8, tied with Vlad Jr. All the guys ahead of him have between 128-148 games played, while Trout's at 89.

If we dial back to include 2019, he returns to first with 13.3 WAR, but Semien and Bogaerts (12.7) will probably pass him before he gets back.

I really hope he gets through this soon and somehow manages to nix the injury bug. If not, It may be time to pass the mantle along ("mantle" is rather appropriate, at this point).

[/VENT]

There's no doubt that Trout was the best player in all of baseball from 2013-2019. I can't say for certain that he had that title in 2012 because that was only his first great season as a player up to that point. Wit that being said, Trout was the best player in all of MLB in the 2010s unanimously. But still, being the best player in the whole sport for a decade is still something that shouldn't be taken for granted. Not many sport athletes could say that they were the best player in their sport for a decade, as well as the obvious pick. In the NFL, it was Montana in the 1980s. In the NBA, we have Kareem in the 1970s, Jordan in the 1990s, and LeBron in the 2010s. There's no unanimous best NBA player in the 1980s because it's a two-man race between Magic and Bird. I could see why some people might have Bird over Magic in the 1980s. Both guys were smart, excellent rebounders, and terrific passers of the basketball. Magic, however, didn't have the ability to play good defense or shoot the ball well like Bird. You can say that Bird was the better player overall. Same with the 2000s, two-man race between Duncan and Kobe. Shaq was only great for like half of the 2000s, dropped off a bit after 2005. 

Where do you have Trout right now among the best player in all of baseball? If you ask me this question after 2019, he would easily be first. Now? I'm not sure. But who cares, man. There's always going to a point where Trout wasn't going to be the top do anymore. Let whoever is the currently best player in all of baseball, if it's not Trout, have their moment. But he can never accomplish what Trout did in the 2010s. Kareem had to give up the mantle of being the clear-cut best NBA player because of slowing down somewhat but a big reason was because Magic and Bird burst onto the scenes starting in the 1979-80 season. Jordan had to give up that mantle but he was old. So did LeBron, old age and a rising star like Giannis. 

Trout getting injured a lot since 2017 sucks. There was always gong to be that chance that he breaks the all-time home run record but it's getting slimmer and slimmer right now. On the bright side, he's going to finish, at worst, tied for the most legit MVPs in MLB history with guys like Bonds, Schmidt, and Yogi, which is great company. On the bright side, at least his chances of breaking the all-time strikeout record of 2,597 by Reggie are getting slimmer and slimmer. But in the case that he does break it, lets just say that he wasn't afraid to fail and was good at baseball for a long time like Reggie was. 

12 minutes ago, totdprods said:

If he was the top bat in our offense, sure, it would be a problem, but he wouldn't be here. Also, he's hitting .239, which is essentially AL league average (.243). The Yankees' offense is almost entirely built around that type of hitter and that's why it isn't working. We have a really nice balance. 

When you look at all his pros and cons - good defense, ability to play multiple positions, left-handed power, plus-plus power, above-average arm, elite walk rate, league average BA, an extension candidate...a strikeout rate that's just slightly worse than Trout and Ohtani isn't enough of a detriment to outweigh what he brings. 

But again - I don't see the Angels fitting here. A team like NYY, Atlanta, or San Diego could top any offer we'd make (or at least that I'd want to see us make) with better quality prospects, and as @Dochalo pointed out, Kyle Gibson isn't enough of a pitching upgrade to warrant an expanded deal. 

Had this been the offseason when competition for Gallo was a little less, and someone like Lance Lynn could have been worked into the deal (maybe Gibson too as a salary dump since he was awful last year), then paying a premium would have made more sense. It just doesn't now.

Until proven otherwise, I'm going to say that the reason behind why Trout's strikeouts are inflated right now is because pitchers like Glasnow and Bauer are cheating with sticky substances. Gallo has always struck out a lot, even without pitchers cheating. The guy could really make it to 2,000 strikeouts without even lasting 15 seasons in the big leagues. That's embarrassing, even considering the era that he's playing in. 

14 hours ago, totdprods said:

Lol who cares if Gallo strikes out too much? It’s not 1984. Everyone strikes out too much now. Dude has 72 walks and a .402 OBP. His 20.5% BB% this year is better than what Trout has ever posted - and Trout and Ohtani’s 28% K% this year is only 3% worse than Gallo’s.

He’s something of a West Coast guy too, could probably be an extension candidate. 

Could you imagine him in an offense which is he isn’t the main guy? With Trout, Ohtani, Walsh, Rendon, Upton, and Fletcher? Nuts.

Of course putting the ball in play matters. You can ask the recent Yankees squads about how much it matters when your hitters put the ball in play. Or the 2002 World Series champions Angels, who were great overall as a team in putting the ball in play. You're going to need your hitters to make contact with the ball in situations where you have a runner in scoring position, especially when there's a guy on third with less than two outs. I can already picture Gallo striking out with a runner on third with less than two outs as an Angels and they end up losing that game that really ruins their postseason dreams late in the season. I mean, holy cow, Gallo averages 227 strikeouts per-162 games, which makes Hall of Famer Reggie and future Hall of Famer Trout look like Tony Gwynn at the plate when it comes to making contact with the ball. 

Be careful about Gibson. Sure, he had his highlights before this season but his career ERA prior to this season was 4.57, which is about average. It's not like he was a dominant starting pitcher for years prior to this season.  I don't trust the guy to repeat his Al-Star first half this season. 

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Miguel Cabrera might join it as well - he's at 1886, with $64M owed for 2022-23. He'll probably Pujolsed, and maybe with no takers, as his power has completely left him.

Others who have a chance of reaching 2000: Longoria (1514) and Stanton (1482). Votto (1412) and Goldschmidt (1344) might not play long enough to get there.

Trout's at 1215, so would need to average over 138 Ks per season over the course of his contract, including this year. With his penchant for injury, I don't see him breaking Reggie's record, unless he's really healthy and/or plays a couple years beyond his contract.

Miggy did stated that he was going to play out his final season of his contract, so he's got, which is likely, two more seasons after this one to get to 2,000 strikeouts. I'm not certain that he'll get to 2,000 by the end of 2022 because he's been injury prone for a long time. But there's a great chance that he'll just make it to 2,000 once it's all over. I don't see him playing for any big league club after 2023. He's never been a good defensive player and now that he can't hit anymore, he's toast before 2024. Stanton would be at like 1,900 strikeouts by now if he wasn't so injury prone. But I mean, he's still going to strike out like 150 times a season even if he misses a decent amount of games per season, so he can't hide from 2,000. Yankees are stuck with him for a long time and he's not exactly well-liked by their fan base. They're going to have a tough time winning a World Series in the Stanton era because their hitters strike out so much. The 2002 Angels didn't have a superstar player but that team did put the ball in play at a high clip, which was a big reason why they won the World Series. At this point, I won't get too upset if Trout breaks the all-time strikeout record. Like Reggie, it will be because of longevity. Ruth was once the all-time strikeout king. So was Mantle. And Stargell. All legends of the game who stuck around for a long time. 

9 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

His sprint speed hasn't gone down at all. Statcast has him at 29.7 feet/s in 2015, the year they started, and then between 28.9 to 29.4 every year since. 29.3 this year, a bit faster than last year's 28.9, actually.

The point being, if he lost a half (more like, quarter) step, it was five or six years ago - and really only an inch or two per second. He might have been a tad faster in 2012-15, but I'm not sure (Statcast doesn't have numbers for 2012-14).

Note also that K% for all hitters have gone steadily up for some years now. Actually, they have gone up (or, a couple times, held steady, but never declined) every year since 2005. From 16.4% in 2005 to 23.8% in 2021.

From the 1950s through 2000ish they've fluctuated in the 12-17% range, going up and down over different periods. But the last 15 years seems a bit different. Maybe the sticky stuff!

I just think the reason that Trout isn't stealing a lot of bases these days is because he's trying to not get hurt. But interestingly enough, his stolen base totals are all over the place. He's had seasons where he was stealing a lot of bases but had seasons where he wasn't that much of a base stealer. So who knows, maybe he'll decide to rack up a few more 25-stolen base seasons. I do love Trout's mindset if he was thinking about displaying that all-around game again. It would be nice if he ends his career as a member of the 500-300 club. I know Bonds did it. Mays, probably, without looking up his numbers right now, But even if he's not stealing bases, just having that ability to still do it will still distract pitchers and give the other Angels' hitters more good pitches to hit than if he wasn't a threat to steal bases. 

I'm still amazed that Reggie's strikeout record of 2,597 isn't broken yet. I think someone is going to break his strikeout record within a couple of decades. He was the first hitter to ever strike out at least 2,000 times in the regular season and had to wait 20 seasons until "The Big Cat", who ended with 2,003 strikeouts in the regular season, joined him in the 2,000 strikeout club for hitters. For good measure, the other four hitters who have struck out at least 2,000 times in the regular season are Thome (2,548), Dunn (2,387), Sosa (2,306), and A-Rod (2,287). By next season, if things go as plan, Upton should join the 2,000 strikeout club by next season. He's currently struck out 1,915 times in the regular season. Upton will be a free agent at the end of the 2022 and a few months ago, before Maddon made a great move and put him at leadoff, I felt that Upton only had like 1-2 more seasons left in him. Now, since he's hitting again, I could see him playing an extra 2-3 more seasons in the Major Leagues. If that is the case, he'll get close to breaking Reggie's career strikeout record. 

23 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Thanks. And yes, as great as we all know he is, I think most of us don't realize just how great--or at least, historically rare--as far as sustained level of super-greatness. Or to put another way:

Two or more 10 WAR seasons: Ruth 9, Hornsby 6, Bonds 5, Williams 4, Mays 4, Cobb 3, Musial 3, Wagner 2, Gehrig 2, Trout 2.

Five or more 9 WAR seasons:  Ruth 10, Hornsby 8, Bonds 8, Mays 7, Wagner 6, Williams 6, A Rodriguez 6, Collins 5, Cobb 5, Gehrig 5, Trout 5.

Seven or more 8 WAR seasons:  Ruth 11, Mays 11, Bonds 10, Wagner 8, Hornsby 8, Gehrig 8, Williams 8, Collins 7, Trout 7.

That is, obviously, quite exclusive company.

As for his inevitable decline, I think the main concern is his health. But I'm not too worried about the stolen bases, as that has less to do with declined speed (it hasn't) than it does with preventing injury, imo. 

Further, his performance early in this season assuaged my concerns that he was going to imminently turn into a .270, 35 HR guy. The worry was his spike in launch angle a few years ago, which usually precipitates decline. His LA this year is much lower, implying that he's hitting more line drives, which will help him keep his average up. 

One more thing. In tennis, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic have continued to dominate the sport, deep into their 30s. There are several reasons for this, including weaker younger generations, but a major part of it is that they are (or were, in Federer's case) so much better than everyone else in their prime. Meaning, If they were all "10s" in their prime, the next best players are "7s," and even if they decline to 9 and then 8, they're still better than everyone else (and, I would argue, that those three are the first ever "10s").

My point being, Trout has a long way to fall. His seven full seasons have been 8.3 WAR or higher, with five of them over 9 WAR, meaning he's a true talent 9 WAR player. If he slips a bit, he might be a 7 WAR player for a few years, then a 5.

So while I agree that he probably only has two or three levels as a 9 WAR player, I think there's a good chance he'll still be a star (5+ WAR) for several years after that.

Fair point on his stolen base total this season. I don't think his 2017 injury had anything to do with him not stealing bases since 2020. He did stole 24 bags in 140 games in 2018, still a terrific amount. I guess the only real issue with him at the plate this season is him striking out a lot again like he did in 2014 and 2020. 2014, he had a hard time hitting the high fastball. 2021, still has issues with that pitch but to me, his inflated strikeout total also has something to do with pitchers like Bauer and Glasnow cheating with sticky substances. I'll take his inflated strikeout total so far this season with a grain of salt. 

20 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

@stormngt, the Fangraphs WAR leaderboards for 2021 are here:

Position players

Pitchers

Combined

The first two are set for qualifying players only, while the combined, by default, is any and all players - but you can adjust accordingly.

Pardon me while I ramble for a bit. My intention is to provide a bit of understanding and context of what WAR means, or rather, what any given WAR number means relative to other players and major league history.

I think part of the confusion that some have with WAR is that it is a cumulative statistic, meaning it depends upon playing time. So when we say a "2 WAR player," that doesn't mean much outside of context: how much playing time a player has.

For example, Mike Trout has 2.3 WAR on the season, which sounds like average, right? But he did it in 36 games, which is a bit over 22% of a season. Meaning, he was actually on a 10.4 WAR pace. An average regular in his playing time would have produced around 0.4 or 0.5 WAR.

Furthermore, players range in playing time, from brief "cups of coffee" to a full-time leadoff man on a powerhouse offense, who may have over 700 plate appearances (the record is Jimmy Rollins with 778 PA in 2007). Actually, let's compare Rollins in 2007 to Trout in 2017. Rollins had 6.5 WAR, which is a great season, and earned the NL MVP for it. In 2017, Trout had 6.8 WAR. About the same quality, right? Well, Trout had that thumb injury and only played in 114 games, with 507 PA, just barely qualifying. Meaning, he produced slightly more WAR (+0.3), but in 271 fewer PA, or just under two-thirds of Rollins' playing time.

Who was more valuable, Rollins with 6.5 WAR in 778 PA or Trout with 6.8 in 507 PA? WAR says, "about the same," because the default assumption is that whoever replaces Trout, will do so at a 0 WAR replacement level. Maybe better, maybe more, but that's why it is "wins about replacement," rather than "wins above average." A replacement player is the type of guy that you can easily find in the high minors or on waivers, and plug in to replace an injured player. Whereas, average regulars are far more rare.

And remember, also, that there are only about 140-145ish qualifying position players in a given year, about 5 per team. So when you look at team statistics, only about 5 or so will end up with 500+ PA over a full season. Meaning, only a little more than half of any given team's starting lineup will end up qualifying. Every team is different, but that's the average. The rest of the playing time is filled up with part-time players, including regulars who lose time to injury, bench players, prospects, cups of coffee, etc.

In a typical year, there are usually about 450 position players with 100+ PA, and over 700 with 10+ PA (including pitchers). So only about 20% of all players with 10+ PA will qualify, meaning only about 20% of all hitters with 10 or more PA are "regulars," or regulars who play 75% or more of a full season.

The point being, an average major league regular is actually a very good player, compared to the field of all players. And as I said before, the typical median WAR of all qualifying position players is 2.7. But while a 2.7 WAR hitter might be an "average regular," he would be an above average or good player (as an aside, Byron Buxton produced 2.7 WAR before going down with injury...in 27 games. Meaning, he produced as much value as the median regular in just 27 games).

Pitchers complicate things, for a couple reasons. For one, fewer and fewer pitchers qualify, as inning counts have trended down for years now. In 2019, the last full season, only 61 pitchers qualified (162 IP+), or just two per team. Compare that to 2010, when 92 pitchers qualified. Actually, the big drop occurred between 2013-16, with 88, 78, 73, and 58 qualifiers. From 2017-19, it has been around 60 a year, although in the covid-shortened 2020 season, only 40 qualified (this year it is 63 so far, but will probably dip below 60 by season's end...it would seem that 60 is the new norm). Historically, it is a bit more stable, at least from 1970 onward, with about 3 qualifying pitchers per team compared to 2 over the last half decade.

Anyhow, of the 61 qualifying pitchers in 2019, the median was 3.3 WAR, whereas historically it has been more like 2.9. This increase is because, I think, in the current era, the lesser quality starters tend to not pitch as many innings. Meaning, managers are more prone to pull lesser pitchers, so the average is a bit higher.

Back to position players, a 2 WAR player is actually the 70th percentile of all players with 100+ PA, and a 3 WAR player is more like 83rd percentile. Meaning, an "average regular" produces more value than 70-80% of all players with 100+ PA, which includes most regulars, injured regulars, platoon players, and role players. So while it is easy to poo-poo a guy and say, "but he's only a 2 WAR player," that's still a very useful, solid player to have.

Or think of Justin Upton in 2018, when he had a 2.9 WAR in his first (and only, really) full season for the Angels. He was 60th among 140 qualifiers, so only better than 57% of them - so really a "good regular." But he was #69 out of 448 players with 100+ PA, so he was better than about 85% of all players with significant playing time.

It is also easy to forget just how good a 4 WAR player is, which is where we start getting to different degrees of stardom. If 2-3 WAR is an average regular and 3-4 a good regular, 4 is the "gateway to the stars." From 2010-19, a ten-year span, there were only 440 player seasons of 4+ WAR, or 44 per year. Meaning, a major league team--on average, has one or two 4 WAR players, very rarely more than that.

Or if we want to come closer to whole numbers, the average major league team has only one position player of 4.5 WAR or higher, two position players of 3.5 or higher, and four or five position players of 2 WAR or higher, and about eleven position players with positive WAR (0.1 better).

Higher WARs are even more rare. In any given season, there is usually only one player with 9 WAR or higher in the entire major leagues, meaning if a player reaches 9 WAR, chances are he had the best season in the majors. There are on average only about two 8+ WAR players, five 7+ WAR players, a dozen 6+ WAR players, and two dozen 5+ WAR players.  Meaning, if you reach 8 WAR, chances are you're one of the two best players in the game; 7 WAR and you're top 5, 6 WAR one of the dozen or so best, and a potential MVP candidate. A typical team's best player is around 5 WAR, plus or minus.

Or to put it another way, the vast majority (about 80%) of 100+ PA players have between -0.5 WAR and 3.9 WAR. Only about 10% are above (4+ WAR), and only about 10% are below (-0.6 WAR or worse). Only about 5% are 5+ WAR, and only about 3% have -1.1 WAR or worse.

10 WAR is a historic season, with only 53 such position player seasons since the two major leagues in 1901, most of them by a handful of all-time greats. Or if we look at only the laste half century, from 1970 to the present, only 13 such seasons have occurred: Bonds five times, Trout twice, and once each by Morgan, Ripken, Henderson, A Rodriguez, Posey and Betts. In that same span of time, on 23 seasons have been -2.0 or lower, with Chris Davis' -3.1 in 2018 one of the ten worst seasons in major league history, and the 4th worst qualifying season.

Anyhow, I rambled on way too long. Hopefully this provides context for those interested in better understanding what a given WAR number means.

Excellent post. We're just going to enjoy Trout's greatness until it's gone. There are signs that he's declining as an elite all-around player. His stolen base numbers are down since 2020 and he doesn't play terrific defense in center anymore. Plus, he's been striking out a lot since last season after having a good stretch of about 4-5 years where he was solid at not striking out by today's MLB standards. He's due to have one of those seasons where he puts up something like a .270/.360/.500 slash line. He's about to turn 30 years old in just over a month, so time does go by fast. It's reasonable to think that he only has like 2-3 more seasons of superstar play before the decline starts. It would feel weird when the day comes where Trout finishes a regular season with a below average slash line for his standards. It would be like a rose suddenly losing its beautiful smell. 

Eaton, Quintana, and Cobb. Three excellent additions by the team...if this was in 2014. 

The three players' numbers in 2014: 

Eaton: .300/.362/.401 in 486 at-bats

Quintana: 9-11, 3.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 200.1 innings pitched

Cobb: 10-9, 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP in 166.1 innings pitched 

I don't ever recall the Angels adding a washed up player and he ended up being good again. Didn't work with Lincecum, Harvey, or D-Train (I never knew that he signed with the Angels to a minor league contract in 2013 until like a year ago).