GregAlso

I agree a higher O-swing rate would cause weak line drives and ground ball contact. Yes, they gave him a steady diet of sliders and off speed junk. Yes, he needs to lay off that junk to really rebound, which he started to do with curveballs and changeups in August. What I just don't see is how a higher o-swing rate would cause weaker flyball distances? He was chasing and making bad contact but when he did make good contact the spray charts don't show it going as far. Why? Not sure; swing mechanics, weight, strength? That's the question.

Good info DocHalo, I didn't see that interview. His BABIP was high but it wasn't completely outside of his career norms on each pitch. He has had other high BABIP periods in his career, including 2010. I don't think the high BABIP is completely unsustainable for Josh.

Interesting but HRs aren't the only thing he gets with more power. Deep fly balls off the wall, in the gaps, over the fielders head, and with high velocity off the bat will all aid his BAA and overall performance. This is good data though.

Eric, if what you're suggesting is true his fly ball rate wouldn't have changed much in his rebound. His popups did come on up and in four-seam fastballs, o-swings, but his fly balls would need a bit more contact. In previous years he was able to get hits on balls outside the zone, o-swings. So I don't think that fully answers why his fly balls didn't travel well.

Good question. It could be a factor. The spray charts I have access to can't be filtered for home/away splits. That would be interesting study but I am not sure that data is accessible without a mountain of work? I guess we could look at each home & away series' spray chart in 2012 & 2013 individually but that would be tedious work and this already was three weeks of free time research and thought. If someone has the time and desire we could possibly answer that. Until then it's just speculation.

Did you forget the reports about the best offer out there for Kendrick straight up was Santiago? That's what Kendrick is worth to teams out there. You're crazy if you think you can get more than that for either.

From what I've read DiPoto wanted to sign Greinke but Arte wanted to spend the money on Hamilton instead. It's not that Greinke wasn't wanted its that Jerry's decision was overridden by Jefe.

Your plan won't work for the reason you just stated. Because "Kendrick and/or Aybar are not that irreplaceable" we will not get much for them. How can you assume we will get anything of much value for two guys that are easy to replace? Why would a GM give up much for two guys he can easily replace? There are no teams out there in desperate need of MIF and if they were Drew is still available. Drop the trade Kendrick and Aybar nonsense.

Why do they need to do that for the team to score enough runs? The numbers show that they just can't be worse than last year and we should be fine. Any improvement is bonus.

God, I hope not. As long as Albert and Josh are not worse we will be good. We don't even need them to bounce back, just don't get worse. If that happens and no more freaky bad luck then we could easily be a top 10 offense.

Well, if he doesn't sign by January 24th then he can't sign until next offseason. So that narrows it down. February is impossible.

Umm, they do agree. You obviously don't understand because your statement proves it. I hate it when people provide no original thought or logic to their argument. You failed to understand my statement at all. I suggest a reading comprehension class for you. I dare you to explain WAR in a rational essay.

WAR also factors in baserunning and the extra bases he takes or steals, minus his CS. Trout adds a ton of value on the base path compared to Salmon. I think people dislike WAR because they fail to understand it. Understand it yourself before you criticize it. oWAR is well understood based on linear weights. dWAR is not as well understood and fluctuates the most. The SABR community is still trying to settle on the best way to analyze defensive ability. WAR doesn't compare players to their peers except for defense. Replacement level, which recently was standardized between BRef & FanGraphs, is the only comparison and it is only to a reference point not a specific year. You can criticize it all you want once you really understand it.

Fiesta Resort is doubletree now, crazy!

Just a reminder of this earlier link that the ball was more juiced this year than previous years in Japan. Tanaka pitched in an easier environment to score runs. http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/06/12/japanese-baseball-officials-admit-to-altering-the-baseball-to-increase-offense/ This was in another thread.

Fletcher was talking about contracts. The CBT is calculated at the end of the season based on contracts signed before opening day. If a contract is signed after opening day and doesn't change the $ for this year then the AAV is calculated in the following year. That is how the Angels can extend Trout in April or May and not pay till 2015.

Out of touch with reality...

On the contrary, my understanding was they pitched with a juiced ball. I thought I read that the ball led to more home runs.

They couldn't get Santiago for Howie straight up. Doubt they'd get a Santiago-type for Aybar straight up. Those two just don't have that much value out on the market right now.

Aybar will not get anything close to Trumbo. Trumbo's power got him overrated and returned that hall. Nobody out there would trade a single young cost controlled SP for Aybar's below league average hitting last year. Nobody should've traded so much for Trumbo. Second, we only need one cost controlled cheap January signing coupled with maybe Balfor. If not Balfor than save the money. We only need temporary insurance for Skaggs. Richards & Santiago should be fine. I agree, I'm not thrilled with Garza, especially at $90 million. Don't like his personality and 1.5-2 WAR pitcher barely seems worth it. Shouldn't pay him more than $14 million per and no more than 4 years. I doubt that would sign him either.

Good stuff. I agree, Calhoun has a ton of potential in this lineup as a solid all around lefty bat.

I don't know what the "def" stat is even based on. UZR & DRS are annual stats. Usually you have to look at a larger sample size for defensive stats since they aren't the best at this time. Let's just say his defense doesn't improve, then I'm still fine with him as a 4th OF because his bat will play. Defense is usually something players can get better at, but hitting seems to be harder to improve on.

On "my FanGraphs" you can't get advanced fielding by halves. So not sure where you got the numbers. I saw better routes the second half and fewer misplays. I watched 70% of the games.

Bad memory, even proves my point more.

$28 million falls of next years payroll (Wells & Blanton) plenty of money to sign Trout to a long deal. Besides we need a frontline pitcher for when Weaver can't hack it anymore.