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GregAlso

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Everything posted by GregAlso

  1. Worse than expected sure but the point is they aren't nearly the worst in the league. It is enough runs to win, not what they should produce but sufficient to win. They are right in the middle, holding up avg, 7 better & 7 worse. if they were 13 or 14 that would be something big. Also, the point of RF/RA still stands. Giving up 30-40 xtra runs is huge.
  2. As far as those harping on the pitching, the point of defensive metrics is to try to separate that which is the pitcher's fault as to that which is the fielder's fault. That is the point of the metrics. Yes, Hariss has cost us 5 runs, but Aybar has cost us 4, admittedly over more games. This means Aybar is better but he isn't good this season. RAA discussed in the article tries to separate out pitching from defense, again whose fault is it? It also factors in the level of competition, these bad teams. This is why I used it. That is why Blanton only picked up 2 runs over his last 3 QS, bad competition. If it had been better teams he would have picked up more. RAA even factors in park differences. So if your wondering if the pitching is a mirage this is as close as we can come to determining that right now.
  3. Well Mudville, as far as the offense the point is to score runs. Angels 256 runs scored is 12th in the majors. Could they be better? Sure. Is 12 out of 30 horrendous? No! 29 out of 30 teams on defense is horrendous. So the bigger elephant is defense, by far Yes, Angels_Baseball, we should be better. We are underperforming the Pythagorean theorem by 2 games. We should be 28-31.
  4. Sure but some of the biggest offenders were not on the DL, Trout and his bad routes to balls this year and Kendrick's boneheaded plays. Yes, Trumbo wouldn't be out there as much without DL issues and neither would Hariss. Maybe you can ascribe Callaspo's defensive trouble to DL but I'm not sure how. But these guys alone cost us 34 of the 41 runs according to DRS. Trout and Kendrick cost us 15 runs. They just need to play better D and I think a lot of things will start to turn around.
  5. Thanks guys! I just hope this: "@PedroMoura: Omar Vizquel is back with the Angels as an infield instructor. Spent time with the club in spring training." Means the Angels are trying to address the defensive issues!
  6. Don't see my name on here with my +3 (myself, my wife, my friend Saul and his wife.) just don't want to miss out! Loved this last year!!
  7. Wow, thanks LT for defending rational thinking. I am one that thinks the defensive metrics this early in the season aren't totally off. Trout's defense has not just been off in LF, it has also been worse in center. Last night a good accurate arm could have had Ethier at the plate. I've been to 15+ games at the big A this year and watched Trout take bad routes to balls, a couple dropped for hits but most he made up for with his speed. Trout's UZR/150 in LF is 13.4 and in CF it is -9. I don't think he's that bad but he hasn't looked stellar to my eye this year either anywhere. Peter's arm isn't the only thing better, his routes are cleaner. This isn't to say Bourjos has been a defensive gem this season either, his UZR/150 is worse at -26.8. In fact I believe a major problem with the pitching this year is actually our substandard defense, 34 team errors (2nd worse in baseball.) I digress. This discussion is about defensive comparisons of Trout and Bourjos and offensive comparisons of Bourjos and Shuck/Trumbo (his possible replacements.) 2012 Trout vs 2012 Bourjos defensively (in CF) their UZR/150 were 16.0 for Trout vs 40.8 for Peter. 2011 Peter was even better with a 47.2 UZR/150. Answer: Peter is better in CF. As shown in above paragraph, Trout is good in LF. Defensively Bourjos in CF and Trout in LF maximizes our defense. What about Peter vs Shuck at the dish. Peter has a wOBA (a comprehensive measure of offensive production, look it up) this season of .361. This is tied with Trumbo for 2nd on the team. Shuck has a respectable .309, 9th on the team. Peter is exceptional and Shuck is slightly below the league average of .323. I don't get the logic of trading Peter and his bat, which isn't good enough for LF, and replacing it with a below league average hitter who's defense isn't as good. That makes no sense to me. The argument about Trumbo over Peter doesn't fly either. Peter's defense is exceedingly better, no contest (Trumbo UZR/150 in 2012 LF -0.7.) Peter's offensive value is not worse (remember their wOBA is equal.) Bourjos' speed helps him with more triples than Trumbo will ever hit, not to mention the extra runs with improved base-running. It's a slight advantage to Trumbo for power to our common opinion but the numbers this year don't say that. This whole argument is silly based on the stats, put Bourjos in center and Trout in LF. How easily we forget how good Peter was defensively in 2011 because our eyes are clouded by Trout's offensive production in 2012. Trout is really good, Bourjos is better. I think they didn't trade Petey because the league undervalued his potential. It is best to trade a player at the height of their value, now, instead of when there is uncertainty, last off season. Last thing, Peter is the best leadoff hitter we've got, .370 OBP. I can't wait till we see him batting in front of Trout instead of Aybar. He is also improving his walk rate (7.7% in 2013.) if we could get a top of the rotation SP with a couple years left then MAYBE we trade Peter otherwise we take advantage of an exceptional CF.
  8. Rob Neyer over at SB Nation is infatuated with Coello's mystery pitch. It is an original forkball that hasn't been thrown in decades. The problem is modern forkballs are diffrent and 'original forkball' is kind of lame. Here's the article: http://www.baseballnation.com/hot-corner/2013/5/28/4374234/naming-robert-coellos-mystery-pitch I thought we could give him a hand. Current Nominees: WTF Pitch (Coello's name for it) ****leball (not TV or forum appropriate) Forkleball Knorkleball ... This could be fun, any ideas?
  9. Greg (GregAlso) & Lauren Bird +Saul & Noelle Martinez(4 total)
  10. Guess I was wrong about Wilson. He's throwing strikes... in the wrong part of the zone. Defense didn't help but this is absurd!
  11. No viable leadoff option? Yes, Callaspo isn't fast but a .347 OBP with average power numbers is good enough to leadoff.
  12. Here is a link to a good piece about why Hamilton is struggling. I didn't see a link already posted, sorry if there is. Of note from the article are Josh's struggle against changeups. Interesting, especially since everyone is talking about this. http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2013-05-03/josh-hamilton-advanced-metrics-stats-slump-angels-albert-pujols-swing
  13. Thanks for the positive feedback everyone and glad I could make the advanced stats accessible. Street, know that the D was warranted because he is improving in some small process ways. An F would be him showing NO improvement. He is reducing swing rate and making more contact. Not trying to be emotional just factual.
  14. Yes you can rehab the tear and try to avoid surgery. This was reported but not talked about a lot.
  15. Other little known reason to trade Santana: he has been pitching with a torn UCL for a number of years. He has used a number of methods to avoid TJ surgery. A reason he's been a HeadCase and a reason to dump him. Heard DiPoto wanted to trade him before 2012 but Arte didn't let it happen. Not sure if story is true but it makes ya think.
  16. The logic for Trout hitting second is line up optimization research. After extensive research, detailed in "The Book," it has been scientifically, mathematically proven that a team's best hitter should bat second to optimize runs scored. This flies in the face of 100 years of conventional baseball practice. Since it does, nobody believes the research. Batting Trout second is his optimum spot. Leadoff was being manned capably by Peter. A leadoff hitter needs one important thing, high OBP, not something Aybar is good at. Power is also wasted at the leadoff spot, since research shows they come to the plate the second fewest times with runners on base (interestingly the third spot is the most.) Peter was at .370 and handling leadoff superbly. We just need a player to step in and fill in till he returns. I think Callaspo and his .347 OBP would be best, but we shall see. I realize most people disagree with the research about lineup optimization and the 2nd spot in the order, so I expect push back, but it is true.
  17. As a point of fact Vegas gives the Angels a 20% chance to make the playoffs. Heard that today. It ain't much but not out of it. Last year the Tigers had an 11-20 stretch and A's had a 10-21 stretch. Ours is just worse because we started the season this way. Check out me new InsideEsge piece on this site later today. Not all bad. May and June will tell the story.
  18. @ESPNStatsInfo Mark Trumbo: HR calculated at 475 feet, tied with Anthony Rizzo for longest in MLB this season
  19. Conger DHing would mean no backup C. Don't think many managers would do that, Scioscia included.
  20. Not cheaper, still making around $13 million
  21. Yea, I'm tentatively excited about the bullpen. With Madson getting closer and Cordero moved up to AAA. I'm hoping in a few weeks or a month the bullpen can be fully trusted. We shall see.
  22. Hamilton may not reach 25 WAR in next 5 years but he might get close. It's hard to get "fair" value in free agency. Until last year, by WAR, Hunter never gave us $18 million in value (his AAV.) Wins are more expensive in free agency, just a fact. Sometimes you get lucky and find a deal, but that's rare. The final wins to push a good team over the top are also the most expensive. Hamilton could easily produce 4-5 WAR in 4 if not 5 years of his contracy. 20 WAR, for an already good team, is very valuable. Hunter is not declining so far, but his bat speed is suppose to decline at his age. DiPoto was making a very reasonable projection about a 37 year old player. Players just don't get better in their late 30s. Will this continue? Don't know but Father Time says no. We shall see. I'm still good with this decision. I miss Torii. I really liked him, still do. Today I'd rather have the 32 year old with a career high ISO over the 37 year old with a high BA. ISO, i think, will be more valuable to us in the postseason and big games. But we shall see.
  23. I'm doing pretty good with ticket exchange, so far. Now that there are more tickets on it it has become harder. I think the xchange is now the cheapest place to buy from as I am getting much less for tickets this year. I really like the lower commission I have to pay. StubHub has the superior website and mobile app. The xchange NEEDS a mobile app before any other individual thing. The price comparison would be great too. There are still a bunch of people selling cheap, I just hope it's panic for the 4-10 start. People selling a Friday Yankees game for &5-$10 more than we paid, ouch! Good if you want to buy, terrible if you want to sell. Normally I get 3-4 times what I paid for Yankee or bosox or Doyer games. I hate those fans anyway, too annoying to be around. I think I'll loose some money on the xchange this year, but I'd make less on StubHub. unless, of course, I'd get lucky with a sucker who doesn't know about the exchange. This will all hopefully change when the team turns it around.
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