GregAlso

Also, if the Angels sign the extension after opening day the AAV doesn't count toward CBT until 2015. No reason to sign till early April.

If I were Trout I'd be looking for a contract that takes me to 30 for something like $200-$250 million. I would then be looking for another 10 year Pujols/Cano type contract. The Angels should sign the first contract but not the second. Just my two cents.

What's crazy is Hamilton was more valuable to creating runs than Trumbo last year. Let that sink in... If Trumbo can fix the holes in his swing he can be valuable. Until then he is just an above league average player with big power. Was I the only watching Trumbo in August and September? His ABs were painful! I see Pujols the last two years like people saw Ortiz a couple years back. Without their legs under them a hitter is powerless. From mid-May to August of 2012 Pujols was clicking at the plate. As far as an emotional attachment to Trumbo by fans, how else do you explain the outrage over the trade expressed by fans? It was completely irrational and I could only describe it as an emotional reaction due to many other mitigating factors. Nearly every national writer and major sabermetric personality praised DiPoto for the trade, something they never do. Yet our fans freaked out over the "small return." That to me defines an emotional response as opposed to a factual, rational response.

Good pick up as long as it is similar to or less than his salary last year. Easily replaces Trumbo. Last year Mark's wRC+ (measure of how many runs a player creates & set on a 100 pt scale) was 106. This means he was 6% better than league average. Ibanez's wRC+ was 117, or 17% better than league average. This would put him 4th among last year's Angel regulars. Not only does he replace Trumbo but he could actually be an improvement! Only valuable in a part time DH role. His defense is bad, but if signed for cheap he is a great asset. He would even be great just off the bench.

The point I think the article makes well is that the teams figure the last two or three years to be unproductive years. Yes, Albert has had two bad beginning years but that couldn't really be seen by anyone before he was signed. The initial length of the contract wasn't as bad as people made it seem. I just think the article helps to explain the FO logic in taking on the 10 year contract.

These are some interesting thoughts about what teams are doing with long term deals. It makes a lot of sense and applies to all long term deals even though it focuses on Cano. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/accepting-dead-money-in-free-agent-contracts/

What grade do you give a team tied for second best in the majors? Remember this is not compared to their potential and is only based on OPS+. Glad you all enjoyed the piece. I too am baffled by Eppard being let go. Makes no sense to me.

This is our first fanFest. Is there enough food usually? Should we bring extra food too?

Myself, my wife Lauren and my parents (who came to spring fanfest) are coming. We can bring non-alcoholic beverages. How much should we bring? Do I need to bring coolers with ice?

The month isn't much of a sample size for batting average, neither is a week. I am just saying we are talking about process not results. You mentioned a month, and within the last month he has a 7 day period of improvement. That is another reason to mention it. He is still doing the right things to be successful, controlling counts & hitting the ball hard. Success at the plate almost always follows those behaviors. In other words, if Trumbo maintains this approach at the plate I'd be willing to bet you will be very happy with his results at the end of the year. Thanks Vladdy, I realize we are all frustrated with Pujols' production but there is some good news. His walk rate is improving and his line drive rate is also improving. This underlying data suggests that maybe he isn't in full decline, something that would warrant the F. The more Albert improves his approach, which he is trying to do, the more we see a productive Pujols. That's why there is a faint ray of hope.

Bad results don't necessarily mean bad process over a smaller sample size. Results are also dependent on luck and opponent's defense. A player can only control what type of contact they make and if they walk or strikeout. Trumbo is reducing strikeouts and increasing walks. His linedrive rate has not dropped of this season. His HR/FB rate has gone up. These two facts suggest he is making very solid contact with the balls he puts in play. If they get caught or end up in outs that really isn't something he can control. His underlying numbers don't suggest his recent slump is dependent on him. It also suggests he will pull out of it and it won't last much longer. In fact he is hitting .250 over the past 7 days.

Sorry I didn't clarify how I based the grades. I DID NOT grade on performance results. Their triple slash lines or any other results stats did not matter. I was grading solely on what stats had become reliable (swing rate, contact rate, walk rate, strike out rate, linedrive rate, and the other stats mentioned.) These are all mostly process stats. That makes this more of a report on their process not their actual results. Here are two examples mentioned and the methodology. Hamilton grades higher than Pujols because his approach is improving and getting closer to the numbers that underly his most productive years. Hamilton had a D in April's report but has improved many things since then. Pujols is improving his numbers but still not as much as Hamilton has. Hamilton's results improved the last two weeks but his approach changed sooner than that to change the underlying numbers as much as he has since April. Pujols' results look better but Hamilton's approach is more improved. Trumbo's results may be similar to last year but his overall approach is much better. He isn't just increasing walks he is also decreasing strikeouts. There are other things he's doing better too. In fact most of his underlying stats are improving, hence the high grade. I could go through this for everyone and the actual letter grade is slightly arbitrary so there could be a quick reference aspect. The final letter comes from spending so much time looking into each player to get a feel for what they are doing. Hope this helps you understand it a bit more.

Thanks guys. I guess this may be too long for many people to read. It was worth a shot. I'll do the pitchers and then do smaller pieces. Thanks for reading it!

Awesome, looking forward to it!

Is there a transcript of the chat somewhere?

Thanks for all of the hard work! Good stuff!

Nice job Geoff and thanks for the humor. Let's hope this is the new Angels Baseball team.

Inside, I missed those two pitchers, good call. I ran thru a few lists and didn't catch those two. As a point they are a lot like Guthrie, nobody really thought they had much potential. We got to give the Cubs organization credit for finding value there. Feldman's best season came in 2009, when he went 17-8 with a 4.08 ERA in 31 starts. He hasn't shown this potential ever before really. He is sporting an impressive ERA+ 126 and was signed cheap. Villanueva is a lot like Vargas this year but with out having shown this potential before. He had a 4.16 ERA across 16 starts and 22 relief appearances for the Blue Jays last season, but now has an above average ERA+ of 108. I do think they both benefit from the NL but either would've been big upgrades over Blanton. Feldman was snapped up early by the Cubs Villanueva would've been easier to sign. I would like to point out the signing of Hamilton was Moreno more than Dipoto. I lay that at Arte's feet and don't blame Jerry for it. I also don't blame Dipoto for Burnett. Nobody could've known the number of injuries he'd have. If the medical reports look good a GM has to trust that. We can't judge a decision based on DL time unless he went against better judgement. Burnett was the sign this offseason and Madson was the gamble. I didn't include Dane De La Rosa in the article because it was a later move but that factors into it as well a bit. I don't think Dipoto has done terrible at building the pen, the results out of his control are the problem, namely health.

For those who want to know more about how these defensive metrics are calculated and why Trout is doing so bad so far then I suggest you read this: http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=sweetspot&id=36800&src=desktop

Actually we are only talking about a 6 games swing, not 12. We were 26-33 at the time of the article. If 6 losses become 6 wins then our record is 32-27. You said you don't think the defense alone would get us .500. You also said 2-3 games were reasonable. 3 wins is 29-30 and 4 wins is 30-29, so I don't think it is that far fetched an idea.

I would say it has been extraordinarily bad defense, near worst in the league bad. I'm curious, what number of runs do you believe the Angels defense has allowed over an average defense? How about a top 10 defense? I naturally believe in a number near the DRS #, but if pressed I'd say minimally 20 runs over average. I'd also say they cost us 25-30 over top 10 defense.

Even if the number, 40+ runs, is overstated the comparative analysis isn't. By both defensive metrics we are second to last in defense in the league. That is incredibly terrible, no matter how many runs it is. You'd have to agree to going from nearly last in defense to top third is pretty significant.

I don't think that the bad pitching is primarily to blame. I can't remember how many times an easy DP was miffed by our MIF and runs scored. I've seen games lost by just the unearned runs. I've watched balls getting through the IF that should not have. I've seen misplays at the wall by the OF. I don't blame any of that on the pitching. Those extra outs fielders give away really tax pitchers, at least forcing them to make a number of extra pitches. LT, others may not be paying attention to this problem because most just look where everyone else is looking. That is why I looked into how much the defense was actually costing the team. The numbers may be fooled but in a sabermetric blog all I can do is analyze those numbers. If you disagree with the statistics themsleves then I don't know what to say. I buy into the premise these numbers are based on. I know they're not perfect but they can't all be completely wrong. It seems the argument is with the statistics and not anything else. I didn't create the stats. I only analyze them and help people understand them. I am not writing this from a scouting point of view, so, I can't argue that with ya there. I'll just have to agree to disagree. PS some of the stats do look at batted ball type and some are created by scouts watching each and every play.

LT, yes they are intertwined I agree. It is impossible to fully piece them all out. I think relying on multiple defensive metrics you can get a better understanding of quality of the defense. How much of the pitchers pressing is related to 38+ errors? We both know errors are a subjective stat and that there are some 'errors' that cost an easy DP that are not called errors because one out was recorded. Those can lead to one or more runs. The pressure of that on a staff is also hard to measure. The point is whether its 40 runs or 20 runs below average we should not be 29th overall. Our defensive struggles have been thought to be an afterthought and one of many problems. My hypothesis is it is a bigger problem than anyone is considering? How much do misplays in the field or beating up on oneself for missing a play you should've made affect you at the plate? Sure, it isn't suppose to but these are still human beings with real emotions and disappointments. I respect what you're saying but I really feel the defense is putting more stress on the pitching with multiple misplays and runs allowed. I also think the defense could be effecting the offense a little too. The Angels also believed it to be a big issue as well considering they brought Vizquel up to help. I called it the elephant in the sense it was being largely ignored. Most articles were saying 'its the pitching' or 'it's the 3/4 hitters,' but nobody was talking about just how bad the defense was. So, in the sabermetric blog, I used numbers to try to quantify how bad they really were and how much they are affecting the overall results.

Mudville, the 30-40 estimate is based off of league average defense. We have allowed about 40 more runs than a league average defense would've allowed with the same pitching performance. It has NOTHING to do with unearned runs or fantasy leagues. DRS is a comparative stat on fielder range, quality of throws, balls that drop in the outfield or get through the infield that should not in the average defense. It is complete separate from unearned runs, which is why I discuss them in different sections of the article. LT, I understand you can't fully separate out pitching & defense but sabermetricians are getting better at it each year. Also, I'm not just relying on DRS for the 40 run figure, Baseball Reference has it at 40 as well. Additionally, however many runs it is, they are comparatively the second worst defense in the majors. That is unbelievably bad. Yes, there are "a poop load" of hits but how many of those are due to bad defense as opposed to the pitchers? About Trout, DRS has him worse in CF than in LF. As I've watched Trout I've witnessed him taking multiple bad routes, sometimes his speed helps him recover and make the play and sometimes it doesn't. I'm sure he has had a hard time in left and can chalk his troubles there to learning left field but why is he struggling in center? No doubt the storm is perfect but the regulars not on the DL are not picking up the slack on defense. You have to admit also that the starters and relievers pitched much better in May. The stats i used tried to filter out quality of competition for them too, so it probably isn't a complete mirage. With an improved pitching staff and average offense why are we doing this bad? And that's the point of this piece, our biggest problem is that we rank 29th in the league on D.