samwum

23 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Z.P.

You might be right. 

I honestly like Plesac and the way he pitches, but in significant innings in 2021 and 2022 he was awful and his peripherals were awful.

I guess there's a chance we catch lightning in a bottle and Plesac is somewhat fun to watch, but you're probably right, and in my eyes that's just more of the same bullshit Tyler Wade over Luis Rengifo or Juan Lagares over Jo Adell. 

27 minutes ago, mmc said:

I mean even if you’re not sure if AAA will benefit him, it should be pretty clear that MLB is NOT benefitting him

Jabari Blash had an OPS well over 1.000 in Salt Lake. I don't need Reid Detmers learning how to pitch to Jabari Blash.

26 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Wantz is hurt and hasn't pitched since mid-April.  

Magic 8 ball says Daniel! lol

5 minutes ago, Tank said:

any word on who's going to fill his roster spot in the rotation?

I don't know who it will be, but Davis Daniel and Andrew Wantz both are youngish and might have potential. There's a very real possibility they stink, but they are borderline enough the org should check them out and see if there's a chance.

23 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Or he simply is struggling and it’s on him. He hasn’t been putting hitters away. He isn’t being coached to throw middle middle.  He’s missing his spots. That’s on him. 

19 minutes ago, mmc said:

Your thought process and frustration makes sense, your inability to put any responsibility on the player does not

I'm frustrated with Detmers too. I really wish he were doing better and living up to his potential. But I think there's nuance to life and this might not be a move that benefits the team or player. Maybe a move that is emotional and not supported by the data or situation.

On 5/29/2024 at 1:48 PM, totdprods said:

Eh, at a quick glance it doesn’t look very different.

Too early to judge last 3-4 years, but if we look at 2000-2020 or so..

8th pick: 

• Great (1): Lindor (44 WAR)
• Good (4): Freeland (17 WAR), Leake (16), Maholm (12), Jung (3 WAR, probably gonna be good)
• Okay (4): Quantrill (8), Stubbs (8), Beckham (6), DeShields (5)
• Bad (6): Haseley, Carson Fulmer, Hunter Dozier, Appel, Moore, VanBenSchoten (all had just a WAR around replacement or negative)
• Didn’t reach MLB (5)

45th pick:

• Great (1): Story (30 WAR)
• Good (1): Lowrie (16 WAR)
• Okay (2): Gorzelanny (5), Jackson (3)
• Bad (6): Hjelle, Howard, Bowen, Belfiore, Price, Brignac
• Didn’t reach (10) 

Ky Bush was the 45th pick.

76th pick:

• Great (1): Giancarlo Stanton (44 WAR)
• Good (1): Brian Anderson (10)
• Okay (3): James McCann (8), Nick Hundley (8), Chad Bettis (3)
• Bad (6): Campbell, Clarke, Beck, Murphy, Hamilton, Majewski
• Didn’t reach (9)

83rd pick:

• Great (1?): Sean Murphy at 12, probably on pace for 20-30+
• Good (1): Adam Lind (12)
• Okay (1): Micah Owings (3)
• Bad (6): Lipcius, Seabold, Williams, Murphy, Olmos, Bates
• Didn’t reach (11)

A couple things are pretty consistent…

5% chance you get a really good, if not great player with each of those picks. This was true across all four of those slots (Murphy is a bit of a stretch, but if we drafted another Sean Murphy I don’t think anyone would complain).

Roughly 15% chance you get someone who has a decent but unremarkable career.

30% chance the pick is at best replacement level, this was true across all four slots.

50% chance that guy never plays in the bigs for the latter three (only about 33% for the #8 overall pick).

Aside from the #8 pick making the majors more frequently and producing a few more decent majors, there was really no difference in what you get picking #45, #76, or #83. It is worth noting though that both Stanton and Story were picks out of HS.

The Rockies picked Tyler Anderson ahead of Story at #20, and signed for probably about slot ($1.5m) while Story signed for $900k. Stanton was taken after the Marlins took Matt Dominguez with their first pick, both look like they signed in line with those around them.

Murphy was picked by the Athletics after they selected AJ Puk and Logan Shore, both of whom look they they were at or a bit above-slot.

I don’t think it really matters much across those four picks. Odds are about the same.

This is an awesome post. I think the judgement/categorization meter is maybe a little subjective but I generally agree with assessments and the research is incredible.

For me the thing that sticks out is that the "great" players are really incredible.

• Francisco Lindor -- Elite combo of bat, speed, and defense at premier defensive position SS. Got the superstar contract.
• Trevory Story -- Elite combo of bat, speed, and defense at premier defensive position SS. Injury riddled, but got the superstar contract.
• Giancarlo Stanton -- solidly in the running for most elite power slugger in the word. Injury riddled, but got the superstar contract. 
• Sean Murphy -- arguably the best power hitting catcher in the entire league. Got traded for top prospects and then signed to long term extension.

The actual results of drafting are scattered but picking #8 in itself is pretty sweet. Don't you have a better chance at an elite player like the above if only 7 other prospects are off the board?

If I have that pick I'm shooting for someone elite like those top guys. I wouldn't mind at all if they take a high school guy. I just pray that this strategy of rushing low ceiling players to the majors is over because we need a Lindor way more than we need a Schanuel and if you don't take the risk, then you'll always fall short.

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Nor is it someone who is ruined. 

I definitely can agree with that. If someone actually suggested Detmers is ruined then surely they don't know what they were talking about, or they were just frustrated/exaggerating. To some degree I recognize the frustrated/exaggerating thing because I hate that the Angels are bad, and this is a guy who could help us fix that and he's totally not.

Maybe I am just frustrated because this is a player who the baseball community nationwide believes to be very talented, his analytics show he's very talented, and the Angels who are incompetent can't get the most out of him or stand by him when he struggles.

Maybe a "have some awareness" thing...?

4 minutes ago, mmc said:

Why does a player playing poorly mean he was “ruined by the org”?

Detmers is really fuckin talented. Early draft pick, top prospect, great stuff. The talent is exceptional. This isn't a player that lacks the ability.

7 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

How is it the Halos seem to get mostly pitchers who crack under pressure?

Would help to sign a solid FA pitcher to set the example, but Morono doesn’t believe in solid FA pitchers anymore.

Well I agree with your second point. Although I still feel like if you're the GM and you wanting a fucking ace, instead of batter or reliever, you can fuck Moreno into that no? Convince him why, or just threaten to blackmail him and out him as an awful over-controlling owner in alarming detail....?

But I'd like to learn more about your first. Is "cracking under pressure" relating to the pressure of adjusting to the big leagues? Pressure of getting out of slumps? Pressure of pitching out of dangerous situations with baserunners? There are different theoretical answers for each so I'm genuinely curious.

Would like to bump this thread.

Tonight we lost 9-0 to the Mariners to achieve a 21-38 record. 3rd worst in the majors -- with a solid group around us of the White Sox, Marlins, Rockies, A's.

Closing the game on the mound for the Halos was Cole Tucker, a backup infielder who the Mariners cut from their spring training roster and offered a coaching role.

Yes, you're reading this right, the Angels have the 3rd worst record in the league and tonight their final pitcher was an infielder who the Mariners 2 months ago offered to quit playing entirely.

How much more of this embarrassing shit has to happen before people realize than not only is our ownership bad, but the front office is equally incompetent?

12th in the league in payroll, 28th in the standings..... hmmm...

We can't change the owner, so I'm going to continue to root for a new front office to but put in. At least that way I have something to be hopeful for.

11 minutes ago, halodground said:

But he’s not pitching fine. Despite what the metrics say. He needs to fix his head and his approach. I’d agree with you if I saw something that indicated he’s close, but he’s repeating a pattern that he has in the past. He’s regressing instead of improving.

I didn't mean to quote you so I deleted my comment. I just think he has the most potential out of any of our starters, and the analytics are good, and the team sucks anyways, so this is a moment in time where you stick with the guy and fix it. Utah isn't a place where pitchers get fixed.

I also understand my desire to stick with a guy who is miserable to watch on a nightly basis could be very contrarian. I am just hoping to point out this situation is complex and maybe isn't being played the way that more analytical organizations would play it.

Like for instance if we go hire some Rays assistant to be our GM after Perry, they would in this situation probably keep Detmers up. Food for thought, that's all.

Just now, Swordsman78 said:

Awful lot of young guys regressing this year.   Not what we signed up for. 

Incompetent front office. Doesn't understand data and how to get the most out of players' talents.

3 minutes ago, halodground said:

Advanced metrics are only part of the picture. Anyone watching Detmers can see he’s lost and is in his own head too much. He absolutely needs a reset so maybe his results catch up to his potential.

That's fair and there's probably some merit to your point. Maybe I am just more patient than some. Either way I still have huge belief in Detmers.

4 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Not a ridiculous move at all.  I'm a proponent of analytics, but there are times when the actual results matter more than what the "predictive" analytics might say.

I understand where you're coming from but don't feel this is true for a non-contending team. 

Ridiculous move. Before tonight Detmers had a 3.56 xERA and 3.74 xFIP. He might have the most potential out of any SP in the organization, and the analytics indicate he has been pitching solid and just getting bad luck. To me this is incredibly symbolic of the current front office's complete lack of understanding of baseball analytics, especially on the pitching side.

2 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

Zuniga will be back soon.

I'm all for getting young relievers involved, but in the Estevez conversation I think that it is unfair to Zuniga to talk about him. Zuniga wasn't particularly good in the minors and has a bad control problem. At least initially, expectations should be very low.

Estevez' peripherals are totally fine. His 3.69 xFIP and 3.11 SIERA suggest he should get back to a 3.25-4.00 ERA soon. 

I'm optimistic about the fact Estevez has actually cut his BB/9 from a massive 4.48 in 2023, to a fantastic 1.15 in 2024.

He is just adjusting to throwing more strikes and getting a little unlucky with some hits falling which probably shouldn't.

52 minutes ago, totdprods said:

No one is gonna care what Strickland said last offseason if he keeps producing the way he has been. It’s a slightly different era at this point, but Ryan Madson returned from near retirement to be traded along with Sean Doolittle for Jesus Luzardo, Sheldon Neuse, and Blake Treinen. Good relievers will always draw interest at the deadline. Do I expect that return? Absolutely not. But given the state of our farm, virtually any return we receive for any of these relievers on expiring contracts is likely to be an upgrade somewhere, even if it’s just acquiring organizational depth that helps round out rosters and eat innings. I think I’ve seen recently a couple of our farm teams aren’t even playing with the total number of max players allowed. 

And referencing again Ivan Armstrong. We dealt a middling Tony Watson for three arms, two of which gave us MLB innings (Marte and Selman, even if mediocre) and the third is Armstrong, who very well could be useful. This is arguably one of the best ways to actually build a bullpen, by acquiring guys like him or Carlos Espinosa (Trey Cabbage deal) in mass volume and hoping a few of those live arms give you cheap, effective bullpen pieces to option back and forth. We haven’t had that in years and it’s been a thorn in the side for most of the last decade.

Of those names you listed, I’d bet 4-5 of them won’t even be on the 40-man this time next year. Again, that’s the nature of the beast and sort of my point…the Angels would behoove themselves to run out these vets for another month or so in hopes they can turn a couple of them into a few more names and a couple dozen years of control to continue feeding that pool. It’s how you avoid having to sign a couple guys like Loup, Tepera, Estevez and Stephenson every winter. 

Taking a quick glance at relievers traded last year, almost all of them were for a MILB pitcher, most not really noteworthy, but almost all pitching at least reasonably well in their new club’s farms. We lost a lot of depth last year in Crow, Madden, Albright, Marceaux, Van Scoyoc…this is a good chance to fill some of that out, even if it’s just a bunch of lotto tickets. The farm needs all the depth it can get in order to start and sustain a pipeline of cheap relief pitching.

I edited my post a bit and don't think you had a moment to see the revised so I apologize for that. Didn't really change my point.

Strickland if he continues pitching this way is very comparable IMO to Dominic Leone in age and performance. The Halos traded Jeremiah Jackson for Leone at the deadline last year. So I kind of look at it like the best scenario from having Strickland is getting a Jeremiah Jackson type of prospect at the trade deadline. I'm not sure that level of prospect is actually more valuable than getting Wantz, Zuniga, Joyce, or whoever 30 more big league innings. My gut feeling is those guys really could use 30 big league innings to learn, and we need to see if we can count on them next year. 

I do appreciate the comparable trades you mentioned which suggest you can actually get a competent prospect for an average reliever on the cusp of retirement. Hard to believe, but I guess maybe its possible.

I have read good things about Armstrong. I'd fine calling him up instead of Strickland if you want.

That is a fair point too about replenishing last year's pitching prospect losses. I hadn't thought about that and that's interesting.

I think overall I just get a little concerned that we aren't using the bottom of the roster to develop and evaluate depth for next year, and maybe we are a little too optimistic about trade values.

I see one healthy and sustainably performing reliever we can pencil in the bullpen for 2025, and I just can't imagine that is an industry standard strategy for any team whether they are competing or rebuilding. As you mentioned signing relievers for significant payroll in free agency is generally one of the biggest sins a front office can commit and building a bullpen organically is non-negotiable.

But I suppose the lower end of the minor league system does need to be restocked a bit and that's important. Maybe I just want to have my cake and eat it too. I think selfishly as a fan, I probably just wish there was someone, anyone, in this year's bullpen who was young and exciting and worth watching. I'm not asking for much here!

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

Perry’s running these guys out in hopes some of them build some trade value since pretty much all of them walk at end of year. He’s doing the right thing. The new guys will be up as these either get traded or DFA’ed. Next offseason they can sign an established reliever or two and have a pool of optionable guys to round out the bullpen as needed.

The injuries to the offensive side have also complicated the 40-man for the time being. 

I guess I'm kind of splitting hairs here but I would much rather see that pool of optionable guys proving themselves and developing right now. I don't feel like the current the 2025 bullpen outlook is very promising.

Relievers under contract for 2025 and on the 2024 Angels 40 man roster - 

Pitchers pitching well in the MLB

• Adam Cimber
• Carson Fulmer - 4.80 xFIP is a huge red flag for significant possible regression

Injured relievers who may be healthy and have proven to be MLB caliber

• Robert Stephenson
• Jose Quijada

Lottery Tickets and unproven pitchers

• Sam Bachman
• Kelvin Caceres
• Roansy Conteras
• Davis Daniel
• Ben Joyce
• Victor Mederos
• Jose Suarez
• Guillermo Zuniga
• Andrew Wantz

Not exactly a stellar group. 

And hoping Jose Cisnero or Hunter Strickland have trade value does not feel like a worthwhile venture, at least to me.

• "“I kind of made peace with my career and was grateful for it. I thought I was probably done,” said reliever Hunter Strickland of his mindset last year. He didn’t sign with another team following a May release by the Reds."

19 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Again, that's just absurd. That would put them at 27-22. It is mind-boggling to me that Gubie and people on here actually think that's realistic. The "should be" discussion might actually drive me crazy before the season is over. 

Gubie is a great dude, but his opinions should be taken with a grain of salt. His job is very clearly to pump up the fanbase, not provide objective analysis.

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

I don’t think it’s entirely impossible that Calhoun settles into a decent bench bat dude who can put up an .800 OPS if not overexposed to regular playing time. He even has a couple years of control left, I believe.

Pillar? Times a tickin’, so I’d just enjoy it while he’s hitting. Ideally once he starts to cool off either Moniak has started hitting or guys like Sano, Drury or even Trout have returned and pushed him back to a 4th/5th OF guy.

As for trading Ward or Rengifo…I think it’s same deal as Sandoval or Canning (and I guess even Detmers) where you have to at least be open to dealing an arm and a bat, but don’t have to. Too early to say. Let’s see how things look once July starts, where the team is, how the team is, how the minors are, who they draft, if Trout and Rendon are back…I won’t hold out hope they compete this year but next year is still on the table, especially if they play well. A strong end to the year could entice FAs too.

 

Yeah I mean or we could just platoon Moniak against righties now and send Pillar to the pine. But I guess if we did that, we might find out if Moniak is actually any good, or he might develop a bit. Two things which are clearly nowhere near as valuable as sneaking out an extra win or two.

Just now, jsnpritchett said:

 

Wish we knew what #2 was.

It is pretty funny that the group of young position players Eppler brought in appear to be the most clueless knuckleheads around the league. Wash must be going crazy with Gifo, Adell, Paris, and Adams.

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I’ve learned today that supply and demand doesn’t exist. 

Fabletics exists, but it doesn't effect Vuori's sales.

12 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yea and yet there were other options. Now there aren’t even those options. So if you want an upgrade you have to trade for one. This isn’t a hard concept but you are pretending it is. There are less options thus creating a higher market. Plus there’s more clarity of what a team in contention needs. 

I understand where you're coming from but you're thinking of a quality long term asset like a low quality short term asset. I don't know what else to say.