Angelsjunky

I may be over-simplifying things, but I think a pitcher's success depends on two factors: 1. Their stuff - how good their pitches are. Not just velocity, movement, how well their pitchers, etc, but also probably control (but that could also be part of pitchability - I'm undecided). 2. Their pitchabiility - that is, what they do with their stuff, including command, pitching IQ, mentality, etc. Aces excel in both areas; #2s are either very good at both, or excellent at one and good in the other. Mid-rotation types (#3-4) usually are very good in one area and decent in the other (like Barria), or above average in both. To be a major leaguer you have to at least be decent in both. And of course there is another factor: 3. Health.

I don't see Bridwell being more than a #5-6 rotation filler type. I think Barria has significantly higher upside. Maybe I'm colored by Barria's youth and should put greater credence on their stuff, but it is hard to imagine a guy succeeding in the majors at 21 not improving at least somewhat, while Bridwell was more of a minor league veteran who optimized his chance in the majors last year. Also, compare their minor league records: Barria's is much more impressive.

From what I've seen so far of Barria he's the type of pitcher that regularly out-performs his FIP, due to his grit, savvy, and other factors that all fit in the category of "pitchability." Improvement from him might look more like consolidtation of an ERA in the 3.50 to 4.00 range, but with a lower FIP.

Are we thinking Suarez is ready before Canning? Both should be ready sometime in the first half of 2019, even in April. Sandoval maybe by the second half. The Angels are starting to have some nice depth in the rotation. Now they just need a couple guys to take a step forward to be at least #2s. Ohtani has the talent but it is hard imagining him starting 25+ games. Skaggs has shown flashes. Heaney reminds me of Shoe a few years ago where he had spells where he looked like an ace then spells of getting bombed. Maybe one of Canning, Suarez or Barria can step forward beyond the projected mid-rotation ceiling.

You mean it’s much ado about nothing? In this era of media exploitation?! No way! Hey, but at least we got a twitterage out of Stradling.

Comparing Chick-Fil-A and In-N-Out is a rather egregious false equivalency. One speaks out against LGBTQ rights, the other donates a few bucks to a political party. I honestly don’t get the big deal. There are no INOs in Hawaii, but I wouldn’t think twice about eating there (aside from the fact I’m not a fast food guy).

You're right, although I think 85-90 is more realistic, with an outside chance at a wildcard berth. My point was merely a positive trajectory rather than insta-contention after four years of mediocrity.

I believe the term "Craig" is only reserved for links, not perspectives or types of posts. It is never a Craig to endlessly recycle variations on "the big picture" threads. We'll be doing it all offseason, as you know. Anyhow, I've pretty much written 2019 off as another transition year. Sure, Eppler should try to make the team as competitive as possible, but with an eye for improving the trajectory rather than going all in for 2019. In other words, think of the three-year plan: 2018: Finish with 75-80 wins 2019: Finish with 80-85 wins 2020: Finish with 85-90 wins 2021 and beyond: 90+ wins To do that both patience and persistence is required - and, of course, savvy moves. So as far as improving the team, I look at the next few years. By 2020 or so we should see Pujols swapped for Thaiss, with some Walsh and Fernandez sprinkled in. 2B will eventually give way for Rengifo or Jones. 3B will hopefully see a more established Ward. C either we go for Grandal or find some other way to improve. RF we'll see Adell replace Calhoun and eventually Marsh replace Upton, with Adams/Deveaux/Knowles waiting in the wings for opportunities in 2021 and beyond. The problem with the pitching is that there's no clear sign of elite talent. Canning and Suarez show flashes, but are more likely to be mid-rotation types, along with Barria, Heaney, and Skaggs. I'm not willing to expect anything from Soriano, C-Rod, Rivera etc at this point, except hope they are healthy and develop. But my main point is, the trajectory is what is important. If the Angels show no improvement next year, with stalled farm growth, then I think you might see a bit of a firesale in July: Calhoun, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoe, etc, even Upton and Simmons sold off to rebuild the farm (again). But I'm not expecting that, and I'm still optimistic about the future...just not expecting a huge turnaround in 2019.

I see more of a higher average and walks, less power than Reddick: maybe more like .290, 15-20 HR, 70+ BB a year. Nick Markakis? I do think he has more power he'll tap into and eventually hit 20+. Anyhow, I hear what you are saying, but the numbers for Marsh and Jones are disappointing. Both were expected, at least by myself, to perform better. But as you said, there are some encouraging signs as well and overall I don't feel too worried about either.

We talk a lot about the cream of the crop, but there are some intriguing prospects in the "sleeper/fringe" category: Way, Rojas, Justus, MacKinnon, Tavarez, Menendez, Del Valle, etc. I think the Angels really need to give Walsh a look in September. Fernandez, too.

Shohei is already a star with the potential to be a mega-star. Barria is a solid #3-4 starter. Ward, Fletcher, Hermosillo, and Fernandez all look like fringe starters or very good bench players, with the chance to be average plus regulars. Briceno and Arcia both look like solid to good second string catchers (I'm hoping for Grandal). Buttrey, Jerez, and Anderson all look like good bullpen pieces, maybe upsides of being setup men but probably not closers. Robles is not a rookie, btw. Seems like relatively typical middle reliever journeyman. Cole is interesting and could be a nice sleeper pick to be a good swingman/sixth starter. So yeah, a nice crop. Of the potential call-ups, Rengifo has me the most excited. He is one of my very favorite prospects in the org and my top pick to be the second baseman of the future. I think we'll see Walsh as well, maybe Suarez, but probably not Thaiss or Canning.

Haha, this is true - but not only of Angels prospects. Actually, I was thinking of several third basemen of yore that were white dudes but no one quite matched. George Brett came to mind as another best-case scenario, but he was high average, good but not great power, some speed and good defense early in his career. Maitan seems more like a slow power guy with poor defense at 3B. I hope he hits for a good average, but that remains to be seen.

@totdprods, @Stradling, I have thought of Pablo Sandoval for Maitan as well, although mainly only because of the fat guy assocation (and to be fair to Maitan, he isn't fat - just not a scrawny 16-year old anymore). Miggy Cabrera is the absolute dream. Pablo Sandoval (the good version) is the hope. It is hard to imagine something less that isn't total flaming out in the minors. In other words, I see a bit of an either/or trajectory: either he becomes an impact major leaguer (Sandoval or better) or he flames out.

Maitan with his 8th HR of the year, his 4th in 8 games. His triple-slash is now looking vaguely decent: .253/.311/.409, or at least Pujolsian. Anyhow, a .253/.311/.409 line from an 18-year old in Orem isn't half bad.

Well yes, exactly. If he is going to need TJS, he is going to need TJS. I think we can hope for one of two alternatives: 1. He never needs it. This seems very unlikely, but I suppose is possible. 2. He needs it, but can get it done just after a season ends so that he can still hit without missing significant time. This seems more possible. Let's say he (knock on wood) re-injures his arm sometime next year, but can still hit. The Angels shut him down for the season as a pitcher, but let him hit. As soon as the season is over (Oct) he gets the surgery. By the time spring training rolls around, he's ready to hit again although will, of course, miss the season as a pitcher. I suppose the worst-case scenario is that the ligament fully tears in Spring Training or early on and he can't even hit so he has the surgery and is completely out for that year, as a hitter and pitcher. But let's hope that isn't the case.

Even if a ligament is "100% healed," that doesn't mean there won't remain an underlying weakness or propensity for injury. In fact, I'd be curious how many instances there have been of pitchers with similar injuries to Ohtani's who were able to fully avoid TJS. My guess is that the majority of them eventually need it.

^Well, that changes things. Thaiss remains the best bet for first baseman of the future. Even so, it doesn't hurt to wait until next year and give Walsh and JMF auditions now. If Marte keeps getting starts I just don't know what to say.

I wonder how much Albert still enjoys playing baseball? It must be rough, being a shadow of your former self. We've never seen the truly great Albert, but it is worth remembering that for the first decade of his career he was one of the very best in the game, and an all-time great. The reason I wonder whether he still enjoys himself is that if the Angels were to sit him down and say something like, "We'll give you half of your remaining contract if you retire now," he might be tempted: that's three years he gets to live his life, be with his family, and he still gets $45 million more. I mean, the difference between "$205 million" and "$250 million" won't be experienced by Albert except as an abstaction, while three years of life from "39" to "41" is real time that can't be bought back.

Walsh and Fernandez in some combo. Thaiss has really been struggling and I’d rather just let him finish out in AAA. I can’t believe Marte and Cowart are getting votes.

There are two extremes: 1. You let Albert play as much as he wants until the end of his contract, because he was once great and Mike Trout likes him, yada yada. 2. You dump him this offseason, swallow the $90MM, and turn the page. It doesn't have to be one or the other; in fact, I think a middle ground is optimal. The first obviously isn't a good idea because Albert is bad and will likely only get worse. But the second would likely have serious clubhouse ramifications, even damaging the Angels' chance of extending Trout. How about the phase-out option? In 2019 Albert becomes a platoon player and pinch-hitter, sharing DH duties with Ohtani, getting the occasional start at 1B, and pinch-hitting on his days off. Maybe 80 starts, 100 games total. In 2018, he's more of a bench guy, starts maybe a third of games at DH/1B, some pinch-hitting. Hopefully he'll retire before 2020, but if not he can be a "bench coach" with a few at-bats just for old time's sake.

Uhh...all of them?

This talk of Shoe and Shields got me thinking...what if Shoe was groomed to be the next Shields? I could see him excelling in that role.

Stop talking about Napoli, because he makes me think of Vernon Wells, and then my soul dies a little more.

"Only" three more years - we're 70% done, folks! I wonder how many of those 486 games he'll play in. My guess is 2019: 113 2020: 87 2021: 48 = 248

Well again, WAR is supposed to account for context - meaning, ballpark and position. If you don't think Trout gets enough credit, then you're essentially saying you don't think WAR factors ballpark into account correctly, which is fine but I'm not sure why you'd think that. But no biggie. Note that I am saying this year, with the emphasis on so far. By season's end, Trout could be at 10 WAR and Betts at 9. But so far they've been virtually identical in terms of overall value...at least according to the single best stat we currently have.