jessecrall

Daniel Murphy's assets are lost on me. He's versatile only in the sense that if you pencil him in at 2B, he'll grab a glove and take the field. But he's brutal over there, 18 runs below average in 71 games last year and -15 in 139 games in 2017. If you play him at second for any length of time, he will cost you wins. So that makes him a 1B essentially spelling Pujols. If he's at 1B and he rediscovers his 2016-2017 stroke, great. But last year, he was 6% better than the league offensively and he turns 34 at the beginning of the season. Does anyone expect him to improve at the plate? Were he some bargain basement flyer, fine, but he's projected to get 2/28. I don't see how that's tenable when Descalco was as good a hitter with better on-base skills, isn't a butcher at 2nd, will cost a fraction as much and is 2 years younger. Or you stick with internal options like Thaiss and spend elsewhere.

That FIP the last to seasons scares me. It feels like his performance could come crashing down at any second. 
Teheran has pitched brilliantly three times in his career, and all three times his BB/9 was sparkling around 2.0 and even then his FIP suggests he was more of a 3.50 ERA sort than low threes sort.
At that rate and price I'd rather just put Suarez in the rotation and see what happens. His last two seasons he's set a career high in BB/9 at least during a full season with 3.4 and 4.3. 
Not just that, his velocity is very clearly trending downward. I'm guessing Teheran is throwing with more effort now than he ever did before just to maintain some velocity and its resulting in more walks. 
Pretty much everything about Julio Teheran right now screams no. 
I'd just promote Suarez and put him in the rotation rather than trade him and another pice for Teheran and add the extra payroll on top of it. 

Suzuki: 1 year/$5 million
Descalco: 1 year/$2 million
Kikuchi: 6 years/$42 million per MLB Trade Rumors estimate + $8 million as a posting fee 
Morton: 2/$32 million
Morton was flirting with retirement this year so I feel skeptical that he'll leave Houston. But he's got great stuff, doesn't cost a draft pick and is unlikely to require more than 2 or 3 years. Kikuchi's a gamble but if he's even an average pitcher for most of that contract, he's a bargain. The Boras representation makes me figure his AAV will be higher than what I've got estimated but what the hell, we're just guessing. Descalco's coming off his best offensive season and offers mediocre defense everywhere. That's better than we got from Marte or Valbuena and he's cheap. Suzuki's the fallback assuming Realmuto costs too much; I agree with Jeff Fletcher's assessment of the Angels' overall reluctance to bet big on over-30 catchers.
I want to give Fletcher every opportunity to earn a starting spot. He's never drawn great scouting reports and even after last season, he earns more skepticism than praise. But his defense was terrific at 2 positions, he held his own at the plate and he just looks like the kind of smart, instinctive player who's always a touch better than the sum of his parts. Maicer Izturis was like that. Marwin's a more exciting option than Descalco but he's probably going to cost 3/$30 at a minimum and it's entirely possible that he already peaked. Per Fangraphs, Fletcher put up more WAR than Gonzalez in 65 fewer games. I wouldn't bet on that happening again but...I also don't want to spend $10 million a year on the assumption that it wont.
Simmons SS
Trout CF
Ohtani DH
Upton LF
Pujols/Descalco 1B
Cozart 3B
Suzuki C
Calhoun RF
Fletcher 2B
Skaggs-Heaney-Morton-Kukuchi-Canning (at some point) with Barria, Shoemaker, Suarez, Pena & Tropeano in the mix. That's a solid team. Not great but solid. If Adell & Jones are ready to click in 2020 and Canning & Suarez prove themselves capable starters, you can make a real run in 2020 without embarrassing yourselves in the interim.

Marsh is blocked so he's exactly the kind of top-100, high upside prospect you'd be okay with losing. Canning would sting immediately, Jones would probably sting in 2021 when he's developed into a plus 2B who can hit while Realmuto is either gone or here on the wrong side of 30 making $18 mil a year from an extension.
Marsh, Suarez & Rengifo would be the ideal package but I think the Marlins will get better offers.

Oh, I would absolutely hold Adell and would be very, very reluctant to part with Canning.

Oh, I would absolutely hold Adell and would be very, very reluctant to part with Canning.

I added their ages for you in 2019.

If I have to give up 3 of my top 5 for Realmuto then I don’t want him.   If I have to give three years and $12-15 million per for Grandal or Ramos I don’t want them.   Sign Suzuki for 25-30% of that for one year and be done with that catcher position for the year.  

Oh, I would absolutely hold Adell and would be very, very reluctant to part with Canning.

Mike Trout is unlikely to be a great player at the tail end of a, say, 14-year extension because time is undefeated and injuries are common. But it's hardly a sure thing that a $40 million AAV would be a problem by the late 2020s. Consider: There have only really been 4 players that compare to Trout in terms of skill set and success at so young an age: Mays, Mantle, Bonds & Griffey. Maybe Frank Robinson and Henry Aaron but the former didn't reach Trout's heights and the latter didn't have his speed (though he was an excellent baserunner who did, consequently, age exceptionally well).
Let's start with Mays. He doesn't appear on Trout's statistical comps yet because he missed most of his age 21 and 22 seasons due to military service before breaking out with a 10-WAR season at 23. Mays is basically a smaller Trout. Swap some plate discipline for defense and they're even. Mays arguably peaked between the ages of 31 and 34, played at an MVP level at 35 and put up a 6-WAR season at 40. He's the gold standard for players aging. He stayed healthy throughout his career which required a measure of luck we can't expect from anyone. But he also shows that it's not impossible to remain extremely productive for 20 years.
Mantle is an even closer physical comp (though Trout still has ~30 pounds on him) and is essentially Trout's equal in all skill sets (he even gave an interview at the very end of his career admiring Mays' aggressive defense and lamenting his own tendency to play balls in front of him tentatively. That's Trout. His biggest weakness on defense involved coming in on balls, which he seemed to rectify a bit this season.) Mantle peaked at 23-26, had a 10-WAR season at 29 and then saw injuries and defensive degeneration sap his overall value. He remained an excellent hitter through the end of his career, managing a a 143 OPS+ in his age-36 and final season. Had he played today, he probably could have held on a few more years as a 2-3 WAR DH. So Mantle wouldn't be a great pattern to follow; you can put a guy like that at the top-3rd of your lineup but at $40 mil a year, you're not getting a value surplus. At the same time, Mantle suffered from osteomyelitis, a series of serious leg injuries and a fondness for...extracurricular pursuits that didn't do his body any favours. Trout has no lingering health issues and appears to be a hard-working fitness fanatic throughout the year.
Barry Bonds comes with an obvious asterisk but his 20-something seasons look at a lot like Trout's. Power, speed, walks, good average, plus defensive value...exempting the strike-shortened 94 and 95, Bonds put up 8 WAR every season between his age 24 year and his age 33 season, supposedly his last clean year. So Bonds played at an MVP-level through 33 and could have been expected to age well considering his broad skill-set and no sign of any decline (though he was hurt and comparatively unproductive in 1999, his first roid year). Would you take 7 more 8-10 WAR seasons from Trout at $40 mil before decline sets in? I would.
Griffey's the worst-case scenario. He took a step back at 28 and hit the wall at 31. Injuries, weight gain and the accompanying decline in his skills both in the field and at the plate rendered the second half of his career more unproductive than Pujols'. He made about $12 mil/year through it and didn't play in a single playoff game with the Reds.
So you've got two examples of guys whose value would exceed even a $400-450 million contract, one guy with a particularly bad injury history who would fall short but still remain productive enough to warrant playing time and one guy who represents a complete washout. None of this means Trout WILL age spectacularly or crash and burn and all these guys had different personalities, training habits, styles and luck. But if you factor in Trout's value as a franchise player (which didn't really exist with Pujols or Griffey doing their biggest damage with another team), extending him for 12-14 years is a bet I'd absolutely make. Not just to appease fans or win in 2021 but to potentially have a great player well into his 30s. Time is undefeated but if anyone in baseball today can go 12 rounds, it's Trout.