Cosmo_Kramer

Quintana is certainly better than Teheran.

And this is why Roster Resource is the site to use..

Roster resource is accurate. You are not including player benefits and 40 man roster salaries in your luxury tax calculations. 162M AAV appears to be your active roster total, so add ~15.5M and ~2.25M, respectively. Therefore, it comes out to ~180M luxury tax currently. Also, 15M signing bonus counts as real payroll for the year it's paid, so that wouldn't be helpful.

Your numbers are getting mixed up. The Angels luxury tax number last year was $191 million. Not real payroll. The luxury tax is just an AAV calculation. Real payroll is what matters to Arte. Last year was ~$180 million real payroll. Currently this year is ~$165 million. So real payroll is ~$15 million short of last year. But Arte could increase payroll from last year. And you can backload FA contracts so the real payroll stays lower this year. The luxury tax is just AAV though. So backloading doesn't matter. Actual payroll doesn't matter. It's the AAVs of the team added up. Last year, again, $191 million, but currently at ~$180 million luxury tax. The first threshold is $210 million, so the Angels are ~$30 million short of the luxury tax. We have heard from Jeff in the past that Arte is willing to exceed the luxury tax, but operates based on actual payroll. So the Angels will likely add $15 million of real payroll, but the luxury tax number will depend on the AAVs. My sample Bauer contract had $15 million salary in 2021 and $30 million AAV.

Roster resource is 100% the site to use for accurate payroll and luxury tax

Pre arb is usually near minimum anyway, so the differences are small

Or you might last four years, after which you can inspire a group of fans to storm the stadium

Bauer 6/180 (15/25/30/30/40/40) would fit, as an example

Angels ~$165 million payroll right now, including Suzuki and arbitration deals. They finished ~$180 million last year. Angels luxury tax ~$180 million right now. $210/$230/$250 million are the tax levels.

2019 Bauer led the league in (walks+hbp) and gave up a lot of home runs

Not really since it's contact%. 2018-2020 15th among qualified starters 2019-2020 14th among qualified starters 2020 14th among qualified starters

Canning's elbow could be worrying, but agreed on upside. His stuff is legit. Here are the 20 starters with the lowest contact% over the last two seasons. Min 120 innings. 1-5. Snell, Castillo, Cole, Clevinger, DeGrom 6-10. Giolito, Bieber, Maeda, Verlander, Scherzer 11-15. Ray, Lamet, Sale, Carrasco, Flaherty 16-20. Gausman, Canning, Darvish, Strasburg, Corbin Gray is 26, and Bauer is 27

I'm not predicting an opt out. Just provided a sample contract with one

Stanton's extension had an opt out after 6/107, with 7/218 remaining. My sample contract with opt out would have been 6/120, with 5/200 remaining. But go on about how it's unreasonable..

That's why I included a couple FA years before the opt out

Wouldn't be surprised to see an opt out as well. Perhaps 2027 at age 28 after two FA years.

Let's imagine the 11/320 rumor for Tatis is true. Sample contract. 2021 PreArb - $1 million 2022 Arb1 - $8 million 2023 Arb2 - $16 million 2024 Arb3 - $25 million 2025 FA1 - $35 million 2026 FA2 - $35 million 2027-31 - $40 million 2032 free agency at age 33

Did anyone actually read the article?

Gray is doable without Canning so it makes no sense. Also Noe is basically worthless in that salary dump trade

Depending on the trade, yeah

Darvish old, expensive, lot of miles. Trade seems fine

Gotta be Castillo/Gray

Yeah, they could just waste every year of Trout by continuing to pay for mediocre pitching and crossing their fingers that the continual "next year" ace will finally choose them

Bauer is probably more likely if they trade for Gray first