DCAngelsFan

46 minutes ago, floplag said:

I dont think it was presented as factual, it was basically an op-ed and was presented as such.  It wasnt earth shattering, there was nothing new, but it did sum up the various possibilities.  
 

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Actually, the quality of writing has improved - it no longer reads like a not-very-gifted high school student wrote it.  So, yay.  

But it's pretty much the same article written every week by *someone* about Trout - and it's not about "him", his new wife and life, his achievements, what he's doing on his break - nope, it's the same article, repeatedly - "he's gonna leave", "he should leave", and/or "The Angels should trade him to the team I cover."

Every damn week. 

If not more often.

The same article.

There was one last week, there'll be another next. 

It's Ground Hog day, and it's irritating.  

So, it's "clickbait" b/c there's absolutely no new information, just a regurgitation of what every baseball writer on the planet has already written - twice - but by putting a headline on it about Trout and leaving, they know they'll get "clicks."  It's practically plagiarism.  

It's like those "He bought an old house - and what he found in the attic will amaze you" headlines.

(I'll save you the trouble - he found Mike Trout in his attic.)

Clearly, he was a seminal player ...

2 minutes ago, notherhalo said:

Vernon Wells......... yuck

 

I know it's spelled that way, but pretty sure it's pronounced "Vernon F****ing Wells!" 

19 minutes ago, True Grich said:

It's funny... when Beltre was a FA after his time in Seattle I remember the overwhelming opinion was that he was over-rated because he was never ever able to duplicate his one great season in LA. 

Exceptional performer for years... I think he's definitely in the HOF.

I mean, he *was* overrated - until he left Seattle.

Can't help but wonder - I was skeptical that he was a product of Fenway, so wasn't entirely miffed when we didn't get him.   In retrospect, though, not only would he have given us a solid 8 years, we probably wouldn't have signed Pujols. 

Addition *and* addition-by-subtraction - our team trajectory would look *much* different ...

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

i have to admit i kinda agree to this.  If were having payroll issues now or are near what the front office considers its comfort zone salary wise, how could the team maintain a competitive model, assuming it even plans to, with one player taking up that much?  He would literally be about 25% of payroll in that range. 
I know many here consider it blasphemy to even consider a trade, but if this was any other superstar player, ask yourself honestly,  dont you have to at least consider alternatives?

4

Trout's salary vs. contribution isn't presently the problem - take his salary and spend it on any free agents you like, and show how you've replaced his ~10 WAR.  Good luck - he's still a valuation bargain right now.  

The real problem is players like Pujols - where you're paying them extravagant dollars for replacement player production.  

Trading Trout could only make sense - right now - because of his impending free agency, and not because of his salary load.   And trading him now had better include Vlad Jr as part of the package back  ...

7 hours ago, Jay said:

I have to say I never got sucked into Dipoto's bullshit.

Remember seenoevil? lol

 

1

Oh, I did.  He said all the right things - and perhaps most importantly, he never traded for Vernon Effin Wells.   

Some people say that Arte insisted on that one.  If true, Reagins should've resigned on the spot, rather than to be forever associated with arguably the worst value trade in baseball history (I calc'd at the time Toronto needed to send about $65m with him to balance the books.) 

So, DiPoto sounded like a genius by comparison,  and I bought his bs for awhile - got skeptical as we seemed to be backsliding, then when he quit, that's when I realized what a narcissistic a-hole he was, uhh, "is."  About that time I realized the team's future was a slow-motion train wreck - things were bad and gonna get worse, as far as the eye could see.  

One thing I've learned in life is the guy who thinks he's the smartest man in the room?  Never is.

Does the story about DiPoto repeatedly punching a whiteboard ring true with anyone? 

That's such a bizarre - and specific - behavior, so wonder if anyone here ever witnessed that from him?

Her injecting "no team has ever been to the playoffs under DiPoto" jibe actually hurts her case a bit - (and make no mistake, a case is coming) - makes it seem more personal and retaliatory.   

Hate to think these guys are that ignorant - but also hate to think she'd exaggerate things to buff up her story - sadly, both are equally plausible, because we've certainly seen people that ignorant and racist (even worse) in positions of power, and we've seen people lie through their teeth, making really malignant charges, just to get revenge or make money.  

However it turns out, the "stain" from the above is true - very difficult to undo the damage. 

Think Baldoquin for Paxton sounds fair ...

Of course, he wants to hang on to Diaz, to save games they're, uh,  losing ... 

14 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

...

Maybe, maybe not. What do I know... shoulders linger and are harder to return to form than a TJ....  A change in mechanics due to shoulder woes could lead him into a TJ situation in the future.

I haven't watched any video - but shoulder pain is a big red flag in pitchers - we've gotten used to the recovery rate in TJ surgery, with a recovery rate exceeding 90% - it's almost routine.  

Labrum and/or rotator cuff tears?  For pitchers, it's *still* a career-ender - they rarely recover - poking around, I see a 14% recovery rate.  

Without a comprehensive imaging study on his shoulder, I wouldn't even consider signing him.   

23 hours ago, Second Base said:

I saw that deal Chatwood got from the Cubs and couldn't believe the Angels weren't in on him. 

Same - I thought he was a bit of a steal, and the only one on that list I'd wanted. 

Turns out, the only thing stolen was Theo's money, and looking at his stats, I don't see a lot of reason to be optimistic he bounces back - those walks are egregious.   

12 minutes ago, Kody Mac said:

Sure helped Daniel Murphy get his contract a few years back.

And Carlos Beltran's 2004 run - then he put up a 1.557 OPS in the postseason for Houston, and the Mets gave him a $117m contract.

Prior to that post-season, I had some fantasy of signing him to play CF - him and Vlad in the same lineup could've been a thing ....

2 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Angel fans so often freak out that Trout may want to "go home" to Philadelphia.

Yet I have never heard a Dodger fan ever concerned that Kershaw is a Texas boy who might want to "go home."

Why?

It began when fans of other teams - notably the Yankees, later the Phillies, and others, openly fantasized about day he became a F/A and they could get him to play for *their* team.

Add to that the number of sportswriters suggesting the same, or suggesting it was time for the Angels to trade him (to their favorite team), and how we were wasting his best years, so should trade him to a contender (their favorite team) - has been particularly noisy this season.  

He's a generational player, in every way, a first-ballot Hall Of Famer, and a quality guy, to boot.  Everyone wants him, and makes no secret of it, and he's in his prime.

Kershaw has been a great pitcher - but with his injuries and missed starts, declines in velocity, and age - I think most people looking at his salary demands would know they're probably getting a Carl Pavano contract.

On 10/25/2018 at 1:23 PM, Angel Oracle said:

Is it all Angelos?

He's bad - he's very short-term thinking, impulsive, ignores boring things like investing and building for the future, and egomaniacal --  needs his butt kissed by anyone he pays, so he's surrounded by "yes" men -- and maybe the worst thing is giving his sons free reign to ruin, er, "run" things.  They're not evil, they're just not good.  

It's a very dysfunctional organization from everything I've heard - but he has a beautiful park, (which he didn't build), and a history and legacy (that he's ruining), so there's a certain inertia to the club and its finances that no amount of baseball incompetence seems to damage too badly.  

14 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Im not sure if its "time"....yet. but its close.

Ive defended moreno in the past. The pujols/hamilton/weaver/cj contracts all more or less hurt, and tied up the bulk. Then trout got expensive, upton, etc etc. Then we were in a spot where we needed too many things at once, and one superstud wouldnt make a difference.

...

Now, if the right people are available, go over the luxury cap and add to the offense. The problem.is there arent a ton of fixes. Machado would be the best fit, if he played 3rd, but he'll be out of the budget. Id love to sign harper, but it doesnt make sense....unless we plan to flip adell.

14

Sorry if everyone knows this - but figure it wouldn't hurt to talk about what exceeding the CBT would actually cost Arte.

As I understand the CBT, there will be three thresholds to be concerned with in the upcoming season:

Base tax threshold:  $206m (goes up by $2m is 2020 and 2021)

First threshold:  $226m (always $20m above base tax)

Second threshold:  $246m (always $40m above base tax)

Penalties are:

I'd think exceeding the base tax threshold should be relatively manageable, even after 3 years.

Exceeding the "2nd" surcharge costs you 10 draft order positions, e,g, if your first round pick was #20, you'd drop to #30.  

Signing players who've rejected a qualifying offer also costs you an additional $500k in international bonus pool spending - the cost is $1M if you exceed the CBT, $500k if you don't.

Not really useful for this discussion, but I believe dropping under the base rate one year resets you to a "first-time offender."

Per Cots, we're $60m, $100, and $101m under the base tax rate for 2019, 2020, and 2021.

57 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I know I'm in the minority here, but I still think the offense is going to end up being the bigger problem in the future than the pitching. 

 

The "future" is a bit hard to project for both  - but I have a lot of sympathy for what you're saying  -  even if we'd had some "pitching stability",  even if we got to the playoffs, we have terrible lineup depth 1-9, and we'd be bounced quickly.

I think the superlative stats of Mike and Shohei hide to a certain extent how bad most of the rest of the lineup was (Upton and Simmons notwithstanding.)

But I'm not seeing a whole lot of position players in the FA market that I'd want - McCutchen for RF would be nice - but that leaves 3B, 2B, and C to fill.   (Jones is what, 2020?)  

12 hours ago, Stradling said:

How hard is it to hit the mute button if you are someone who hates Joe Buck?  My guess is pretty hard based on the number of dudes who complain about him.  

Unless, of course, you're busy cooking dinner and can't look at the television, and just want to hear what's happening in the game without hearing homoerotic pantings from Joe Buck over players and teams he's taken a shine to, and Smoltz' old man complaints about random things that annoy him. 

13 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

This.

There is zero guarantee it works out. It could totally backfire. But its the plan we implemented 2-3 years ago. Changing course in the middle of the plan, especially since its showing positive signs, would be a horrible move. Like quitting med school year 6 to get a job bartending because youre making cash now, and getting laid. 

It sucks, but everyone is gonna have to be patient. Be prepared for another boring 2019. It is what it is. 

Of course, med school is only 4 years long

But I agree - sometimes it's better to stick with a plan than to just have *no* plan, or to give up half-way thru - "changing horses in mid-stream."

As many needs as we have - we could trade every one of our prospects and probably not fill every need. 

And we'd find ourselves where we were with DiPoto - we'd not quite be competitive, we'd have no payroll room,  and we'd have no prospects in the pipeline.  

We need to be patient and hope some of these guys "hit". 

And that Pujols retires soon.

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I started out at 7 then changed it to an 8 once I started thinking about it.  

Day -1:  one of the worst farm systems in baseball history that included 1 legit prospect.  Plus a couple of others that were recently drafted before he got there.  Absolutely no money to spend at the major league level.  Almost no international presence. 

So he was essentially tasked with rebuilding the team while attempting to keep them competitive enough to grab a WC spot should things go right.  

(deleted for brevity)

 

Pretty much agree with all of your points - but no one has mentioned Pujols and the ripple effect caused there.  He inherited a contract and a player that he can't move or work around - he can't "fix" 1B, and he can't offload that miserable hit on team payroll.  Absent Pujols, could've just played CJ at 1B, and the team would've been better at no cost at all.  

I also put him at an "8" for the reasons you cite - I've said this before, he came into a miserable, actually hopeless situation -  we had a mediocre team, the farm was trashed, we were in international jail from the Baldoquin signing - (lovely, we ignored the international market for years, then finally wake up, and put ourselves into years of penalty so we can sign a guy who only gets to a major league game if he buys a ticket, vs. signing Guerrero),  payroll was hammered, and we had no significant tradeable assets other than Trout.   

Sounds like he deserves a '10' - but he's not really been able to improve our results and many of his major league decisions just haven't worked the way we hoped.

Extend Trout?  That's worth something, for sure.

But that "8" could easily slip to a 7, even a 6 if the team doesn't improve on-the-field next year.

And there's no room for missing on talent - he has to continue to improve things, to have a good draft, to find undervalued players - and now I don't remember, but haven't we already spent out international pool money for this year?  

The org remains on thin ice - this time next year, we could start talking about him the way we talk about DiPoto ...

On 10/7/2018 at 4:26 PM, DMVol said:

Hindsight is a wonderful thing for sure but I recall questions, beyond the personal issues, about whether Hamilton was declining quickly (he was)...there also weren’t many serious bidders (Seattle was one other, if my memory is correct)....With Pujols, most thought he would still be productive but nothing like his prime years, which has been pretty accurate.....I guess I am, in most cases, just leery of these mega deals in principal but what Arte told Fletcher is right, they are a killer—-Price, Heyward, on and on...To me, it’s why CJ was maybe an acceptable risk—lots of money for sure (75 million) but maybe a better chance that you might get more bang for the buck....hindsight, I know...

I absolutely didn't want Hamilton - while his stats were actually good in Texas his walk year, he totally failed the "eye test" - he looked hopeless to me - just massive holes in his swing whenever I saw him play - couldn't hit a breaking ball with a tennis racket.   Pretty much what he looked like playing for us ...

And those eyes - yeesh, he always looked a bit crazy to me.  I didn't foresee the personal issues, of course.  I only wanted us to participate to make his cost higher to Texas or Seattle, but never thought we'd sign him.  

4 hours ago, HaloNArizona said:

... The previous GM"s (and Arte) has destroyed the farm and our international presence.  Billy has rebuilt that in a few short years.  What happened to the team this year, is not a reflection on the GM.  Injuries decimated us.  

 

 

 

Absolutely - around the time DiPoto quit, looking ahead was a wasteland - there was *zero* international presence, little to no money to spend on FA's and internationals, and an empty farm - there was absolutely no reason to be optimistic long-term - there was no way to see how we could acquire the talent to compete.

We could enjoy watching Trout play - but I think many fans never really saw how bad it was - there was really no hope of fielding a playoff team in the foreseeable future. 

He's progressed this team a lot since he came on, when it didn't seem he'd have the resources to do so.  And that's the thing - it's not just what he did - it's what he was able to do in an environment with so few resources to improve things. 

Of course he deserves an extension - you can't fire a guy for not being a miracle worker.  

The thing that kicks me in the, uh, "gut" was we interviewed Eppler but chose DiPoto.  

1 hour ago, Torridd said:

I don't agree with this. And if we start this where does it end? I'm surprised so many okay this.

It ends with the robot apocalypse and Judgement Day, of course.

Umpires can have an outsized effect on a game - last night, 1st pitch, umpire gave Verlander a pitch at least 6 inches off the plate,  then another up and in - Richards had a similar pitch sequence in the 1st, similar locations, both called balls.  It's not that he continued to do it the whole game, but to me, that's telling the pitcher "I gotcha - work the corners" - and telling batters the strike zone is extra-large today.   Maybe stuff like that doesn't change a thing - but I noticed and I felt the game was over in the 1st inning with a 0-0 score.  

(I have a memory - may not be entirely accurate - of the 2004 playoff game in Boston, Glaus, I think, at the plate, bases loaded, 9th inning - and the umpire called a ball well off the plate a strike - and Glaus was so flummoxed, he was done.  And so was that series.)  

Lots of high-end pitching prospects in this draft - so, would think we'd draft a pitcher - but if a good bat falls to us?  

Hankins' inconsistency in velocity is frightening - sounds like an injury in the making.  But I'd have a hard time spending a 1st round pick on a high school pitcher not named Sidd Finch, anyway - the washout rate remains too high - would rather look for a college junior, closer to the majors,  like Kowar.

But in the end, the guys who get paid to do this will make the pick, having much more info to work with than I do, so will just let them do their jobs, then complain they got it wrong

On 5/6/2018 at 8:49 AM, Torridd said:

Would someone break down a general Calhoun at bat? I don't see the Angels much. I'm also wondering what management is potentially saying to him. You know he's trying, but this doesn't make any sense. You have to assume he isn't hurt. 

Cole takes a lot of deep breaths as he settles in - he has the look of someone going to the gallows, and just wanting to get it over with - just hoping he can die well, at least - and maybe not poop his pants.   He's looks "out" before the first pitch is thrown.    

His swing kinda reminds me of that line from Tin Cup?  "My swing feels like an unfolding lawn chair."  Like that - I've seen him swing late at an 88 mph fastball.  I think he'd be late on a knuckleball.  Or a whiffleball. 

His bat appears depressed, and seems to be growing a douche beard out of moss.  He once swung the bat at the ground in disgust - and missed.  

No idea what they're saying to him - should probably start with "You're feeling veeerrrryy sleeeppppyyy..." - he looks a basket case, mentally.  

He's still in denial - he doesn't have the tools he once had - and never will again.  He has to re-invent himself with what he has left - but to insist on doing it in the majors shows he's not ready, mentally, to do that.  

Like a drunk, he needs to hit bottom.  Get cut, no phone calls, no more sycophants floating his ego - just "Hey, didn't you use to be Matt Harvey?"  

If someone on staff has a rehab plan for him, a la Kazmir, call him up, pitch the plan, and tell him to call back when he's ready to get to go to the minors, and work the plan.  Then forget him.