WeatherWonk

I actually did try to post over the last few weeks, especially after the Trout signing, but the internet was pretty lame in Guatemela. I was able to log on, but the ads completely bogged down the site, much less post.

But I've been back for a few days and decided to see just how toxic the site would get towards me, if I didnt post. I actually never saw this thread until tonite.

I wasnt disappointed on the toxicity. Just not enough mature, analytical types here.

Congratulations, Chuck. You've allowed quite a culture to grow here. And to think that some of them were actually moderators at one time. 

NESN will eventually figure it out..........but I guess you wont care in another few months.

Maybe they need some prompting.

29 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

All the caveats about level of competition are in play here but, I've seen the Astros play three different times this ST and Forrest Whitley is a beast .... his stuff has been absolutely wicked.    Offensively, whatever injury Bregman suffered that required surgery doesn't seem to be bothering him at all... the dude has looked phenomenal...    At the other side of the spectrum, Altuve has looked a little impaired -- I don't think he's seen much game time but he was swinging for the fences and rolling over weakly.

I don't think I've seen anyone look more impressive this spring than Whitley -- completely effortless gas.

Yeah, Whitley, 15Ks in 12 IP. 

They have a number of players this year that have had fantastic springs. Brantley, Chirinos, Gurriel, Reddick, Marisnick, Correa. Bregman,, though not many ABs.

Who are these guys Tanielu and Straw? 

Tucker is still striking out a lot. About as much as Ward.

4 hours ago, Hubs said:

I hope Ward breaks out like Chapman or Bregman have. Even if he doesn't hit the numbers that they did, but those two both struggled at first and then straight out dominated.

I get that. Most everyone struggles at first. But Chapman and Bregman probably never struggled in the field because they had probably been playing 3rd for quite some time.

The combination of learning to hit AND learning to field just cant be allowed at this level unless you have no other options or you are out of the race.

13 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

and not that I'd wish for it for anyone, but one injury to either Verlander or Cole and they're in a pretty tough spot.  At some point it's realistic to think a 36 yo pitcher like Verlander isn't going to be what he was the previous year.  

A bunch of options are possible.  some are more realistic than others, but it seems pretty reasonable to focus on the positive ones while acknowledging all of them.  

OK, so what if Harvey or Cahill or Skaggs go down? Probably better odds of that happening, given their history. Talk about a tough spot. Then what? Tropeano? Canning? Suarez to the rescue?

I like the potential of the Astros young hurlers even more than ours. But they are largely unproven.

And they had a few players who had worse seasons than 2017 (Correa, Altuve) who probably will bounce back. They got very little from the DH spot and they now have Brantley playing many games there. Brantley will also absorb some of Marwin's 73 games in LF. I think Brantley will hit better than Marwin's .247 avg and more than 16 HRs there. They also got nothing from their catchers..........and might not again. That lineup can afford a few off slots. I also like Kemp or Springer as superior to any leadoff hitter we have. ARE WE STILL HOPING THAT CALHOUN OR COZART ARE THE ANSWER IN FRONT OF TROUT? 

But I've grown tired of all the predictive posts. You think the Astros are vulnerable, I really don't think so. Nor do most of the writers and systems that have generated predictions. But much stranger things have happened.

It's time to play ball!!

7 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Mind-blowing to me that the Angels weren't in on Gio at this price. Almost makes you think they are totally comfortable punting on 2019.

Three million butts in seats make it VERY comfortable, punting. 

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I disagree with the bolded part.  Last year everything went wrong and we won 80 games.  If we have a mostly healthy season where we don’t lose all five of our starting five we could win 84-86 games.  Also there is reason to believe that if the team is in the hunt they can improve at the deadline.  

All good points, Strad. 

3 hours ago, Hubs said:

For me this is the key. I look at the entire AL, and I don't see a front runner without questions. The Red Sox didn't get better, they arguably are worse, but still have a formidable offense and pitching staff. The Yankees got better? I suppose, but did they get a lot better? Is their rotation better? No. The Rays are better with Morton on their staff, but they also gave up Cron, who fueled their offense in 2018. The Orioles and Blue Jays are not expected to be contenders.

The Indians arguably got worse. The Twins might be better?? The White Sox, Royals, and Tigers are all not contenders.

The Rangers could be better, the Angels should be better, the A's surprised last year, and could be similar, or they could be much worse, and the Mariners totally reconfigured their team. The Astros lost 3/5 of their rotation, replaced Marwin Gonzalez with no one. Michael Brantley is hardly ever healthy. They have offense and rotation questions.

ZIPS has them having the 2nd most wins behind the Yankees, but I see them similar to the Dodgers of 2018, actually winning far less games than projected, and being in a division race with the Angels and A's in September.

 

So, you have all these gut feelings about teams that won ~ 100 games being worse this year...........yet you ignore a more scientific prediction like ZIPS. And the Angels "should" be better?

The difference between the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros (and maybe the Indians) and us is that if they have injuries or a player or two go into a funk, they have the depth to continue to win. If we have injuries or a funk, we are toast. To me, it feels like another season where literally everything has to go right, for us to contend for a WC slot. 

BTW, looks like the Yanks are signing Gio Gonzalez, too. Their rotation is definitely better this year, assuming Severino comes back. Not that their rotation needs to be much better. That bullpen is probably the best in baseball, even losing Robertson. The Yankees are for real. 

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Being optimistic is free and a hell of a lot more enjoyable. 

Being pessimistic is a loser's mentality. 

 

Uh, so which category do you put yourself in? 

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

  I just wonder, and I say this without judgement, why do people struggle to be optimistic about their favorite teams?

I dont think that Yankee or Red Sox or Astros or National fans are struggling to be optimistic about their teams. Neither are Rays fans. Probably not Brewer fans or Philly fans or Padre or Brave fans,  either. Dodger fans might be, after losing two straight WS and the team is quite different. But, hey, they made it to two WS in a row. Those are successful seasons.

I think Angel pessimism is justified. We havent won a playoff game in 10 years;  all the while having a top seven payroll the whole time and the GOTG player on our roster. Whatever the reasons why we havent, that feeds into pessimism. 

But maybe the single biggest generator of pessimism, IMO, is..............the injuries! We've had such a bad run that we are beginning to EXPECT them.

Let's get this seasons started, already. We're reaching the paralysis by analysis stage at AW. Everything in baseball, much like life, can't be fully predicted with numbers.

But..............we DO need to make our final prediction on the Angels' overall record for 2019. Yes, many have already been postulated. But other teams are still signing players. Injuries are still happening (don't we know!).  Probably by the end of this week would be a good time for the final prediction. 

I still think Ward is probably our best prospect for third base. I really haven't seen that much of the large crop of "shortstops" we have in the minors (Rengifo, Soto, Maitan, Jackson, Rivas) to determine if one of them might make a better, future option at 3rd.

Hopefully, Ward is only about 1/2 to one season away at AAA. I don't expect that he will solve all his ailments in the field in that time, but he probably will get better. Heck, he's only had about 175 total chances at 3rd in the minors. 2018 was his first year playing third. 

But if his hitting continues to improve on the trajectory that he has established in his minor league career, a few defensive shortcomings can be overlooked by a solid bat. But not until it does.

He has especially got to figure out the throwing from third. He makes too many throwing errors. And those can be very costly. They should be able to get him on track with those. It's easier to accept the occasional booted ground ball. It's like overcoming a single in an inning. You can accept that from a solid hitting third baseman. There have been MANY solid hitting 3rd baseman who had great careers and made 25+ errors each season. 

I think it would be counterproductive to his career if he made the active roster and then only played 1-2 times/week behind some combo of Cozart and Fletcher.

What has happened to Pac-10/12 basketball? A #9 seed, a #12 seed and a play-in game is all they got?

This is, by far, the worst Pac-10/12 season I can ever remember. 

8 hours ago, stormngt said:

Speaking of pitching issues....how many wish we still had shoemaker?

Actually, I wish we still had Clevinger and Chacin.

4 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

I don’t really get what benefit Ward gets from another half season in AAA. Everyone seems agree that it’s pretty likely that Cozart won’t be that good.  Fletchers bat plays at 2B.  A lot less so at 3B.  And that’s being optimistic ! It seems like a lot people think he’s more of a utility player then an everyday guy.  I don’t agree with the idea that Ward is going to magically figure something out that’ll help him in the big leagues in 250 or less AB’s against inferior AAA pitching.  He’s already tee’d off against minor league pitching.  As far as I can tell.  Ward is the Angels guy at 3B.  They should just give him the position and see what happens.  

I don’t get why it’s fine to let a shitty veteran work through things for months but not let a young player, who’s potentially significant to the outlook of the team going forward have the same type of shot.  It’s dumb.  They signed Cozart to be a 2B.  If they insist he plays, let him split time with the utility player.  Or like I said before cycle him around the diamond. 

Well, Cozart hasnt really gotten a shot with the Angels yet, either. Yet they are going to be paying him 9 mil a season, or something like that.

I think Cozart is less likely to hurt our chances on a playoff spot, than Ward right now. Really, besides the Cozart injury, I dont think Ward would have come up in mid August, unless we were already out of the playoff picture. Cozart will play good defense and he will get better ABs than Ward with men on base. No, he wont hit as many HRs as Ward. 

Having Ward "learn" while we are playing out the string (last year) doesnt make sense while we still have a shot. Let him get experience in less important situations. Especially THAT defense!! 

1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

I still think that they need to give Ward a chance to take hold of 3B and keep it.  I’d like to see them shuffle Cozart between 2B, SS, and 3B.  I just say SS so that maybe Simmons can get one day off a week.  If Fletcher/Rengifo lock down 2B great.  If they don’t and Cozart isn’t a disaster let him have 2B.  If Ward isn’t showing any life and the other 2 are let Cozart play at 3B (even though I didn’t think he looked good there last year)

anyway.  They treated this offseason like it didn’t matter if they made a run or not.  Fine.  Let the prospects we’ve been waiting for have a chance.  Let’s see what we have.  It’s going to be extremely annoying to me if September rolls around and the sense is that we didn’t give Ward enough of a look to know if he’s a guy we can consider viable as a starter because of Cozart. Ward in particular I want to see get long look.  

Ward' got a decent look last year (144 PA). He played virtually every game from mid August on.  And it was not pretty.

He leads all of ST in errors committed. Pitchers work on things in ST that can produce bad results. Hitters do, too. But fielders?

He's striking out about 30% of the time. Walking less than 5% of the time. Two doubles and one HR in 44 PA.

Much like last year, an injured Cozart could give him another opportunity at the ML level. But he really should be working on things at AAA, for another half season. I hope that is where he starts. 

1 hour ago, JarsOfClay said:

Im surprised WeatherWonk hasn't predicted Pujols will win the MVP this year based on those numbers. 

He stands no chance. It will be Bourjos, based on HIS numbers.

Seriously, though, it's time for pitchers to start stepping up to the plate........maybe not the best cliche for this. Only 8/9 ST games left before we start on the road with a four game set in OAK.

20 hours ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

 

MS office 2003? Time for an upgrade.

Retirees like myself hardly ever need it. Google Docs gets me through. That version of MS Office was an educational version. 

At least I'm not still using Netscape or Web Crawler. LOL!

Besides, doesnt Microsoft only let you lease Office components from year to year now? Pass.

Today's WC scenario bears no resemblance to the one in 2002. Your best starter wasn't gone for the first 2-3 games of the LDS, even if you win, back then. And look at the teams we would be facing;  one of either BOS, NYY or HOU. Barring injury to them, we have so little chance in a 5 or 7 game series, that it makes more sense to wait till 2020. Outside of the Yankees maybe, there is a good chance BOS and HOU could be weaker.

And if there are injuries to THEM, we can still move at the deadline, if our chances are good.

Besides, we ARE making a legitimate run at the WC. That's the whole idea behind our 1 year signings. I just think it's premature to tie up a bunch of future money on an future that is very unpredictable, from a 2019 vantage point. Especially on aging pitchers. Keuchel is trending down. Take a chance on the Young Turks, instead. Protect the money for the more favorable time period.

If we stay healthy (big IF), we stand as good a chance as MIN, TBR or OAK at making that second WC. The FO has put us in that position, IMO. That's the smartest move, AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

I just dont think it's worth spending Corbin kind of money this year, with all the potential on the farm. WE ARENT GOING TO UNSEAT THE ASTROS FOR THE DIVISION!!! And the WC is just too risky to bet on.

Besides, Arte knows that he will draw three million, no matter what. Three losing seasons and he still draws 3 mil. He wont exceed his limit THIS YEAR. Next year is more likely. Better FA class and a better read on the farmhands.

Winning for Trout NOW, is not a priority. Others will have other opinions, but my opinion is that the front office senses that Trout is not resigning with the Angels. So, you continue on the course of cultivate farmhands and take short-term chances on players trying to resurrect their careers.

Now, if the farmhands falter this year, I dont know where that leaves us. Probably spending more on FAs in 2020, as Trout will realize that a winning future is not going to come from the farm. And if we take him at face value that he wants to be part of a winning organization, increased spending on FAs will be the only alternative.

Well, trading him is an alternative. Not to be discussed around here..............

45 minutes ago, Lou said:

my point was that he didn't hit fairly well when the season started 

Actually, he did.

It lasted ONE GAME. Kind of a small sample size, though.

It's a tread-water, wait-and-see, done-spending year. Get used to it.

It's entirely possible that the most interesting thing to watch in 2019, with respect to the Angels organization, will be how the players at AA and AAA perform. That, and watching Trout and Ohtani hit.

For a brief moment it looked like the Angels ST ERA might actually go DOWN for the first time in five games. But no.

Onward...........to 7.00! 

Angel pitching is averaging six walks per game and have given up 30 more walks this spring than the next team. 

Fortunately, these stats are completely meaningless..............I am told.

52 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

 

I just don't understand the bitching over this. He's hitting the ball regardless of whether you think it matters or not, and he's working with the same guys who helped improve him last year. What's to complain about?

I agree. There's nothing to complain about. Let him work on things in ST. He's hit sub-par for 8 of the past 12 months, over the last two years. Before that, he was pretty solid.

Getting the 2016 Kole would be a huge boon to this offense. Especially if he could maintain an OBP around .350. He could be our lead-off hitter;  something we still dont seem to have.

Personally, I wish he would just cut down on his swing some and be more selective. It's XBH or K, with his approach.

1 hour ago, eligrba4ever said:

Obviously, Brad is really gonna need a good pen. Shouldn't the Angels starters be moving toward or beyond 5 IP by this point?

There were a number of pitchers that went four innings today. Syndergaard went 5.2. 

8 minutes ago, Stradling said:

There’s no real reason to sign him to a one year deal.  I’m not sure there was a single free agent I would have given a one year deal that cost the team a pick.  If you sign him give him three years.  If you’re willing to over pay him for one, give him three years and $50 million and pay him $22 million in year one and $14 million in years two and three.  

Fack that. I'd rather give up a #1 pick even for one year and minimize the risk of going three years with a guy that old who has been experiencing a decline. Mid-round, #1 picks dont pan out that often.

It's a tread-water year. Let's roll with the Young Turks. Pena, Barria, Canning, Suarez plus the soldiers still standing.