WeatherWonk

22 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Heh. That's reason enough to toss Pecota out as worthless. If your model is so bad that it completely disagrees with every other system (and the eye test, for that matter), it's junk. 

I thought it was Baseball Prospectus. Pecota rated us below the Twins, before the Marwin signing.

Dude, you gotta stay on top of the sites that bag on the Angels. Time to rotate off these two and find the ones acceptable on Angels Win.

This post redefines the term "fantasy baseball".

9 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

You're quoting two different sources with two vastly different systems..   

Your first post mentioned FG, now you're posting a link to Baseball Prospectus...    Pecota ALREADY had the Twins ahead of the Angels before the Gonzalez signing,...  also Pecota has the Cubs winning 79 games... 

 

I could see the Cubs winning many fewer games this year. They really havent addressed their lack of offensive punch for long periods of the regular season. Lester and Hamels and Hendricks a year older, Who knows about Yu? About Morrow? 79 might be a little low, though, but maybe not by much. Brewers are about the same (strong), Cards are much better. Heck, Reds are improved, too. Pirates about the same or slightly worse.

Man, I cant believe any service would put us behind the Twins. That's depressing. I don't buy it. But it is a much weaker division than ours. Even the Indians are worse than last year.

The A's are the biggest question mark in our division, along with us. The Astros wont win it by 18 games, like Pecota predicts, but it will be handily, I suspect.

I'm really interested to see how Laureano and Martini do for a full season. Can they maintain those tremendous OBP numbers, especially Martini? Is Piscotty's resurgence for real? Deadly top of the lineup, in front of Chapman, Davis, Olson, Piscotty. The bullpen is still solid. Their season rests on whether Fiers, Estrada, Mengden and Blackburn can get them through till Puk and Cotton return, in some fashion. Sounds like Manaea and Gossett are longshots this year, but possible. I still expect a late acquisition, of another starter, by Beane. Someone who would be willing to accept a one year contract. Maybe Tillman or Bucholz or Shields.

Not sure of all their contracts, but the A's might be another team that will be much better in 2020, like us. Of course, with Beane, no one is safe from being traded, especially good players nearing FA status.

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

will be interesting to see how the twins work Gonzalez into their lineup.  He's not replacing any of their starters.  

I wouldnt bet on that, with how poorly Schoop and Sano hit last year. Sano had a negative WAR and Schoop had that glossy OBP of .266. Gonzales has played some 2nd base. And who knows what kind of season Cron will have. 

Even Kepler and certainly Buxton aren't great hitters. Buxton is in danger of becoming a defensive replacement, unless he starts progressing as a hitter.

I doubt they are paying him 10+mil/season to not start.

2 hours ago, Taylor said:

We need a 2019 version of Valbuena/Danny Espinosa.

It will be the Pujols/Bour combo, most likely.

9 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

So then why didnt Machado take less money to go to NY?

I guarantee you Machado isnt going to be hanging in the gas lamp. The few times he does get out will be at fancy ass restaurants the public doesn't even think of.

His wife will be with him most of those nights. Its his roadies where he'll get out to party...but thst has nothing to do with san diego. 

Who knows if he even got an offer from a NY team? I guess they met. But any offer is only an "unconfirmed rumor" unless someone owns up to it. The Yankees have good, young CONTROLLABLE infielders. No need to limit their options with a contract like Machado's. They have a WS caliber team without Machado. The Padres do not........yet.

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Because pujols lives in anaheim.

Arent you the one that keep saying we have no shot to resign trout, because he bought a place outside millville?

What a hoppin town that is.

Yeah, Trout's the ultimate city guy. He's just like Machado.

Not.

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I get that, but it would also be giving up the 5 healthiest years of retirement.  My mom didn’t make it to 62, my brother didn’t make it to 45.  So retiring early is very enticing.  

I get this completely. My dad and his dad died at 72. Neither was from lung cancer, though they did smoke for extended periods of their lives.

That's why I retired at 55. I left money on the table to do this, in terms of retirement. I'm now 65. I havent regretted it a bit. Nothing beats retirement!!!! 

If there are hereditary reasons why they died so early, DO IT!!!! 

Strad, I have relatives that live in Havasu. You get used to the heat, with it being that dry. But their aint much in the way of culture there, unless you count Elks, VFW, Eagles Club, etc. No Costco, FFS! No real performing arts venues. But Vegas isnt that far.   And the lake is kinda small for the amount of recreation use it gets in peak season. Plus, the water is only swimmable from about mid June to mid October. There are good housing deals there, though. And it is a conservative area, which I suspect would appeal to you.

SD is too expensive to retire to, unless you bought housing much longer ago. I wouldnt get into that market, unless  you can pay cash for it and still have cash as a nest egg. Machado can do that, I believe.  And you would likely have to deal with, gulp, LIBERALS !!!!  

Here's a retirement tip. Check out Green Valley, AZ. It's about a half hour south of Tucson. It's at about 3000 feet elevation and is much, much cooler than Phoenix or Havasu. Great retirement area, especially if you are active. Pro sports about two hours away. This area is exploding, yet has good freeway access to Tucson. Cant lose money in that market, barring another housing collapse.

And you can bop on down to where I live in Mexico in about six hours...............you're dying to do that, right? LOL!

Talk to me, Goose!!! I'm a great retirement wingman. Been all over the West...........ferget east of the Rockies! Weather sucks, bigtime!!! Florida?? Fack, no!!! Too many snooty New Englanders in the winter. Crime ridden state, too.

3 hours ago, yk9001 said:

Can you just imagine the collective boner on 1090 that grew when they heard the Machado news?

San Diego has strictly become a minor league town.  Minor league hockey, minor league football, no basketball, not even MLS.  And their MLB baseball team would be 30th out of 30 teams as far as recognition.

And, yet, they've been in more World Series than the Angels, in fewer years of existence. Unfortunately, they went up against probably the two strongest teams in the last 35 years;  the 84 Tigers and the 98 Yankees. Bad luck for the great Tony Gwynn.

That last paragraph of yours is such a sports fan's perspective, not a player's at all. San Diego is a cool town. Great beaches, great marinas, great weather, great restaurants, great ocean and bass fishing, fun bars, great chicks, healthy vibe, relatively low crime for a city its size. In fact, it's the only city in the US with a population over 1 mil, that is in the top ten in lowest crime rate. Very laid back;  fans leave you alone in public. What's not to like?

Must be OC envy.........hey, the great Albert Pujols signed to play in fackin' Anaheim!!!! What a hoppin town that is!!

San Diego doesn't support many major league franchises because there is so much to DO in San Diego, outside. Tough to compete for recreational dollars with all that San Diego has. 

2 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

It's hyperbole...don't take things so literal all the time..try lightening up for a change and not trying to micromanage/police the board every second of every day

LOL! Good luck with that!!!

17 minutes ago, yk9001 said:

You can pretty much take the quotes from the Pujols signing and replace them with Machado's today.

 

"This signing makes the Angels interesting!"

- Colin Cowherd

I think Machado will do better than 6.2 WAR in seven seasons. By a lot.

And I dont think the Padres will have four losing seasons out of his first seven. Nor will they make the playoffs only once in his first seven.

Manny's SD quotes will be much more positive than Albert's.........can't help but be.

34 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

A Salma Hayek/Penelope Cruz threesome.

If that's on a waterbed, you'd better be savvy on thrust dynamics and standing wave ratios or you might not walk again............but it would probably be worth it.

Angel pitching with an injury-free season.

Rengifo and Adell tying for ROY in 2019.

Arte going 100 mil over the luxury cap.

7 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Machado is married.  His bro in law is Alonso.  

Well, that wont last long, in THAT town..............

'Despite multiple reports of an agreement, Padres executive chairman Ron Fowler said, "We do not have a deal. We are continuing discussions." '

Until this is confirmed by the Padres and Machado, this falls in the category of.............wait for it...................

Unconfirmed Rumor!!!

But, let's run with it, hey!

Anyway, if there is ANY city center that I wouldnt mind living in, of the 30 MLB teams, it's definitely downtown San Diego. I've been to Manhattan, DT Seattle, DT Chicago, DT Boston, Denver, SF, LA of course. The rest arent even in the running. San Diego is the best. You'd never need to leave in the off season, with that weather.

Not that he will live downtown, of course. But I'd spring for a high-rise, penthouse pad downtown, a slip for the yacht in Shelter Island (quick exit to the sea and some great courtesy-docking in SD Bay for partying) and maybe the main digs in La Jolla or PB. 

Machado has got it made! Single guy, right?  What a city!!! Hot chicks everywhere;  gringas and Hispanics!!!

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Per Fletcher's twitter there was a comment made by Arte that the payroll budget was 50% of revenue. 
Not hard to do that math there are figure out that at minimum he admitted to the club pulling in somewhere between 300-350M.  No indication what all that includes or doesnt or how the TV deal factors into that number.

No commentary or opinion i just thought id post it as its the first time ive seen hard numbers on the matter.

 

Yeah, this is where there is no clear cut answer as to whether the media money is kept separate from the Angel's operating budget or not. It would be very easy to separate it out into its own LLC/entity and never include that as revenue on the Angels side of the ledger. MLB might allow this.

However, I doubt that the Angels could generate 300-500 million a year, solely on ticket sales, concessions, merchandise, etc. 

The math is certainly beyond me............which isn't saying much.

It doesnt take much looking to find negatives with this lineup. I am more worried about our lineup that our pitching. But cheerleaders rarely see things realistically for the team they cheer for.

Anyway, a guy who can hit 28+ HRs and 33 doubles out of the #3 or #6 slot doesnt need that high an OBP. Quite looking at OBP as the end-all, be-all stat. You trade power for OBP in certain slots in the lineup. He would have added a lot to the #3, 5, 6 slots in our lineup.

7 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Reading is fundamental.   

Show me where I said anything about it being a bad deal?  I pointed out that in the two years he's been a FA nobody has been willing to go more than one year or 10 mil, and that the entirety of MLB's unwillingness to do better than that should give a person some insight into what his value is. 

Not sure how much clearer I can make it.

5.5 mil for 2.5 WAR is REAL VALUE. Your last statement makes it sound like he isnt REAL VALUE, because he's never been offered more than 10 mil for one year in the past two years.

How much did the Angels pay for less than 2.5 WAR at third base last year?

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

2016	27	Kansas City Royals	$5,600,000	4.111
2017	28	Kansas City Royals	$8,700,000	5.111	contracts
2018	29	Milwaukee Brewers	$5,500,000	6.111
2019	30	Milwaukee Brewers	$1,000,000		Buyout of contract option

The team that re-signed bought him out to avoid paying him a 15 mil option year...   

Two years, 30 MLB teams -- nobody willing to go more than one year or 10 mil.   Should tell you all you need to know about his real value.

 

2.5 WAR for 5.5(+1) mil. How was he a bad deal?

5 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

You’re right ... not sure what they were thinking putting their name on the list of potential suitors.

 

Less than what we are paying our 3rd baseman, Cozart, isnt it? And on the coveted one-year deal that are usually more expensive!

2 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

Hard to believe he turned down $5M 

Passan reporting 1yr/10mil. Too rich for Epps and Arte.

3 hours ago, m0nkey said:

Will the angels be declared finalists?

If Tim Mead is effective, they will. He just needs to drop a dime to Heyman.

"Always a bridesmaid, never a bride........"

6 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

 

Wow, had no idea this procedure was so involved. That's nine things that could go wrong. 

If he goes down, we are looking at Ward and Fletch, with the occasional LaStella. Rengifo is a long shot.

Moose would be good insurance in all this, for the right price.

21 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

I’m really impressed by either Troll Daddy’s  stupidity or trolling ability.....it’s one of those two but I’m just going to sit down and watch.

Well, it's certainly the latter, at least.

Look how effective he reels in two AW regulars ALL THE TIME!

Though, I'm not sure how impressive that really is................