Oz27

Those are the 2016 actual numbers

The correlation coefficient between last year's preseason team predictions and actual win totals was .673, which is pretty damn strong.

It is not that hard to imagine how this team could win 85 or so games. You get there if you take the 78 win projection, add two wins for Trout to get him to 10 wins, add one to Escobar to get him to replacement level, add two to the rotation from any of those guys exceeding expectations and add one to the bullpen (mainly from Bedrosian being better than his projection) and you're effectively there - and I don't think any of those adjustments are totally unreasonable. That is not to say it is what I believe will happen, but there is a path for this team to win about 85. On the balance of probabilities though, 78 feels about right. We could be a bit better, we could be a bit worse. But the rotation probably won't be very good and the bullpen will probably be terrible.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ That would put us fourth in the division, behind Houston (93 wins), Seattle (87) and Texas (83). On the individual player side, it projects an 8 win season for Trout. But it has always come in on the pessimistic side for Trout, basically because the system assumes that players aren't that good and that any who have been that good still won't stay that good (in other words he is so good that he breaks the system). Beyond Trout, it thinks we absolutely suck. The only other players projected for a better than 2 WARP season are Calhoun at 2.3 and Simmons at 2.1. It thinks Escobar (-1.0) is going to be unbelievably shit. It continues to be quite optimistic on Pujols at 1.8 WARP, because his decline has come so much quicker and earlier than the average comparable player. It doesn't really buy Cron (1 WARP) and doesn't expect anything spectacular from Espinosa or Maybin (0.8 and 1.1 WARP respectively). It projects Valubena for 0.7 WARP but that is from less than 300 PAs, so the system actually relatively likes him. On the pitching side, at least all five members of our rotation are projected to be above replacement level this year. It has Shoemaker as the best of them at 1.9 WARP while it isn't overly optimistic on Richards (1.7 WARP). PECOTA thinks our bullpen is going to be something straight from the seventh layer of hell, with the projections for Bailey and Street particularly gruesome. It is also pessimistic on Bedrosian but that one I can discount, because the system is typically pessimistic on young players coming off a breakout season (see its Cubs projections). Here are the player projections anyway - http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?tm=ANA

I want robot umps but there is real merit in changing the zone. We need more balls in play to generate interest in the sport. We're also in serious danger of seeing offense just collapsing. The only thing stopping the run environment falling to a 1960s-style level is the home run spike that began in mid 2015. Since nobody has been able to determine why everyone started hitting more homers, there is every chance that whatever causing it could disappear as quickly as it arrived.

I've come to realize that average exit velocity isn't as useful a stat as I thought it was at first. The biggest reason for that is the lack of a filter. Any ground ball with an exit velocity under, say, 70 MPH is almost certainly going to be an out. Therefore it doesn't really matter if someone's ground balls are 70 MPH or 60 MPH, the outcome will still be the same. Average exit velocity doesn't factor that in. Someone who hits 50 ground balls at 65 MPH and 50 line drives at 100 MPH would have a worse average exit velocity than someone who hits 50 ground balls at 60 MPH and 50 line drives at 100 MPH, yet there expected outcomes would be roughly the same. Statcast is still great and we can gain enormous insight from its batted ball data, as well as the other figures, but average exit velocity can be quite misleading. Having said all of that, it is still interesting that someone with a below average ground ball rate has such a low average EV.

Ackley always seemed like someone who would turn into a plus hitter based primarily off line drives. But now he hits a bunch of weak fly balls and has a horrible line drive rate. All of that is a long way of saying Ackley sucks.

WAR wasn't really a thing then, at least outside the small SABR circle, but Glaus was fourth in the league in WAR that year. He was behind only A-Rod, Pedro and Erstad. He clearly should have got more MVP love, yeah. And Pedro really should have won it, he had one of the best seasons in history.

He is retired from Major League Baseball for the same reason that I am.

There was much speculation that the growth of sabermetrics would kill scouting when really the opposite has happened. Good scouting is as important as ever and good analytical decision making does and should factor in scouting information. The best front offices are the ones who have nailed both areas well.

What is it with the Orioles and players who can hit a bit, but whose defensive shortcomings make them marginal talent? It's not a great sign for Johnny G's future that was the best he could get though. Schoop will be the O's starting second baseman and it's hard to give a bench spot to an infielder who can't play shortstop. Hope it works out for him though.

PECOTA is out tomorrow, the responses from the usual anti-sabr crowd to that should be fun.

Will I get banned for saying NESN and the Sox should have kept Don Orsillo?

Yep, nowhere near enough. I don't really like the precedent this sets. This sums it up well from Fangraphs... "The Cardinals were never going to get completely and utterly torn apart, but all this is is a bump in the road, following the first known hack in major-league history. I don’t know how effectively this is going to prevent a second." http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cardinals-got-off-light-for-the-astros-hack/ They estimate the fine plus the value of the draft picks means the Cardinals lost an employee and $5-10 million, which feels very light. Either they should have lost more picks (their first pick in 2018, since they don't have a 2017 first rounder) or have had their international signing pool removed.

I think I like Bud Norris better than I do half our projected rotation. For those who never worked it out, Norris was the best of the bunch from the 'pick your poison' thread.

This is a strange take, which eaterfan did a good job of responding to. I have no issue with people enjoying the game in the way they want to. But I have an issue with someone who comes into a sabr thread, acts in a condescending manner, making the same lame and tired "jokes" while telling sabr people they're enjoying the game wrong.That isn't "just ... someone wanting to enjoy the game for what it is", it is somebody being an ass.

No problem, I'll reserve the right to poke fun at you for consciously deciding that being ignorant is good.

Dammit, I'm going to have to tell Baseball Prospectus I'm canceling my membership. No use paying for it when I can get such thoughtful analysis here. But seriously, some people enjoy the game by analyzing it and understanding it more thoroughly. Why is that such a problem to you?

The one some people advocated the Angels signing this off-season. I still struggle to believe that a 5.2 K/9 was a thing in 2016.

I just caught up with the whole series. I love the concept and can't wait to get to know it more. It will help us have a better understanding of why certain pitchers are successful, in quantifying a cause of deception (different pitches looking the same or similar at the point the hitter has to choose whether or not to swing).

I'm taking the 5.10 ERA too, with the 5.54 ERA my second choice. The 5.10 ERA is by far the best of the bunch though, he must have been pretty damn unlucky. That is a good strikeout rate, his walk and homer rates are fine and it's not like his H/9 is awful either. I'd definitely have more faith in him going forward than anyone else. Okay, after writing all that I looked up who the 5.10 ERA was. Holy crap. Even when you look at more of the stats than you provide, it's still pretty hard to explain why his results were so bad. Sequencing must have been unkind to him. Also, I was thinking that 5.06 ERA guy must be absolutely terrible and then I worked out who it was without even having to look it up. lol.

Is anyone else surprised by our plans for Valubena? It appears much of his playing time will come at first base... "It looks like C.J. Cron is going to have to fight for his at-bats this year. After officially inking Luis Valbuena to a two-year, $15-million deal with a mutual option on Tuesday, Angels general manager Billy Eppler said Valbuena will see significant playing time at first base." http://www.ocregister.com/articles/deal-742042-angels-completed.html I find it strange for a couple of reasons. Firstly, Cron is probably a better hitter going forward. Marte might be too. But more than that, Valbuena can play at positions where he can be much more valuable. Fangraphs' projections put him down for a 97 wRC+ this year, which is fine for a second or third baseman but pretty terrible for a 1B. I didn't mind the signing when it was assumed Valbuena would spend most of his time at 2B/3B, but if we were looking for 1B help I can't help but wonder if Chris Carter would have been a better and cheaper option. I know Valbuena gets value from his versatility, but if the plan is for him to spend "significant playing time" at 1B much of that will be lost to us.

I'm interested in the theory I see floated here a lot that Weaver was much better in the second half and that should be seen as an encouraging sign. His ERA was half a run better in the second half than it was in the first half. But his strikeout rate, walk rate, WHIP, FIP and xFIP were all worse. He also allowed a worse batting average, OBP, slugging % and wOBA in the second half than he did in the first, while his home run rate was essentially the same. I'd love to see Weaver do well and I understand why people are looking for reasons for optimism, but a deeper look at his second half numbers indicates there isn't much there. His September was much better, but he benefited greatly from luck (his BABIP was .236).

If the Padres are trying to lose, they are doing a really good job of it. The idea that Weaver deserves to be in an MLB rotation - let alone be provided guaranteed money - is insane. Seriously, imagine how angry you'd be if you were a Padres fan.

Maybe it's just society.