Pancake Bear

The lesson here: Don’t believe anything you only hear on the radio. (Unless Jeff says it.)

Because being the top arm is meaningless. What matters more is he’s had an ace like season. He’s also a year younger. He has an injury history, so best case for him is cash in now. Guarantee he doesn’t wait, although I think he likely stays with the Nats. Wouldn’t be shocked to see him go home to SD, though.

Strasburg won’t opt out next year. He’ll do it this year. Most of those arms aren’t that exceptional. Not more than this year.

He’ll probably take 4, maybe even 5. He isn’t that old and he was quite good last year.

He’s had no major errors like Pujols, Hamilton, or Wells. His worst was Cozart, and that was mostly covered by insurance since he was on the IL most of his two years so far. The other three pitchers this year were one year deals that caused no long term damage. Stratton was a good pick that apparently was not helped by White, because he went on and flourished elsewhere immediately. He resigned Trout, signed Ohtani, acquired quality assets like La Stella, Simmons, Buttrey, Robles, Sandoval, and Rengifo, and built a first class farm system that is already helping the roster despite being an absolute dump when he arrived and having no really high picks any season. He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been pretty close.

If you can get past his insufferably obnoxious attitude (I identify with him, clearly), Keith Law's book Smart Baseball has a lot of good insight and information on how stats are measured and why certain ones are good and others suck (because of how they correlate with measuring skill, how they relate to runs scored and, thus, wins).

My bad. I'll try to be less rude this time. Driving in runs matters. Whether it is a skill or not is debatable. Historically, it seems like it generally lines up with whether people hit well in general. Sometimes guys hit better with runners in scoring position, sometimes worse. Over the course of a year, you would assume the percentage would normalize, but it doesn't always. However, over multiple years, it doesn't seem like people have a special skill to drive in runs. They either hit well or they do not, and driving in runs typically lines up to that. RBI totals are a problem because they tend to assume the players with the highest totals are the best players. But that ignores the reality that some guys have a lot less opportunities to hit with runners in scoring position. Basically, it tends to favor cleanup hitters on teams with good offenses or guys who hit with high obp players in front of them in the lineup. RBI percentage is better because it gives an idea of efficiency and matches up better with whether or not it is a skill. I've seen no research (and a lot has been done) that shows evidence of genuine skill there apart from general hitting ability. But I think there may be some. For instance, I think guys who used to hit well and now don't (Pujols, for example, or Miggy) are less likely to let the pressure of the situation get to them. If they're a smart player, they may be able to alter their approach to the situation even if they do not necessarily hit to a high average. But straight RBI totals tell you little other than that the player hitting in front of the guy with all the RBI's got on base a lot. They need a lot of context to have any real positive value in what they tell us.

It would cost a lot, even backloaded (I don't see any way it's much less than 50m for all three), but if Arte adds a bit to payroll and they use some creativity in backloading stuff, we may be able to make it work.

3 pieces: Cole Another solid pitcher (tougher pick; hard to know who the best option will be and whether that will be free agency or a trade). Grandal. Make those three moves, and this team is in good position going into 2020.

Maddon has zero control of whether Cozart is on the roster. Spoiler alert: He won’t be.

Questions I’d like to hear at the press conference: Was your move away from shifting in Chicago an organizational decision or a personal shift in approach? If it was your decision, what was the reasoning behind it? How much do you prize positional flexibility? Is that more a function of personnel on the Cubs, or do you plan to utilize that approach with the Angels? Thoughts on the new reliever rules and how that might impact strategy? Will the veterans on the roster be given spots automatically or will playing time need to be earned by performance? Could you see yourself sitting Pujols, for instance, if age has caught up to him and he isn’t the best option? What is the appropriate balance between old school baseball and analytics? Would you consider yourself progressive by today’s standards? With the new launch angle approach in recent years, do you still favor small ball (hit and runs, bunting, putting pressure on the defense)? You recently referred to getting back to ‘the Angels way of baseball’ - what does that mean to you? Do you think this team can be a playoff team in 2020 or is that too ambitious?

I didn’t hear anything of substance there. His interview of Eppler a week or so back was significantly better. Hopefully we get a modicum of info in the press conference next week. Why are people so incapable of asking useful questions? I know most good questions get glossed over and left unanswered, but at least try.

He has zero insight into baseball. Lot of enthusiasm. Lot of discussion of nothing.

7/224. Has to beat Price and get the all time high.

No chance Eppler wanted Showalter over Maddon.

RBI percentage is slightly meaningful. RBI total is almost entirely meaningless. It’s meaning is actually more negative than meaningless because many still believe it shows something.

How can he get creative with a 3 batter minimum?

Will that be allowed with next year’s rules on relievers?

Not uncommon to struggle early. The kid for the White Sox had an awful first season. Turned it around this year.

Research?

He won’t be going back to Houston.

All glove, no balls.

Can someone remind me what Butcher’s issues were? I remember Nagy was all “throw your sinker more” in a time when sinkers were getting crushed in the launch angle revolution.

About time. Also, Maddon isn’t anti-analytics. He was one of the early progressive managers. He’s ahead of Sosh in that regard (although Sosh also wasn’t as backwards as he was portrayed). But he also brings a fantastic culture to the team. Excited he’s here. And can we quit with the “bring the old game back together bullshit”?

And see what it got him: Golden boy couldn’t even get a decent burial.