Angelsjunky

Just Upton OPS+ the last four years: 119 106 134 108 Which of those four numbers is not alike? Let's face facts: Upton is an above average regular but not a star. If you accept that, then he's just an overpaid over-compensation for years of crappiness in LF. Unfortunately he's perceived of as and expected to be a star. He's not.

After today's game the Angels will be 30-27, or 17-24 after that hot start. The 2018 Angels = a .500 team. What is notable is that this team was supposed to be, at the least, better than last year. Of course they can still finish with 85+ wins, but Eppler has to address the lineup and bullpen issues.

"Livan Soto is built like a child and Maitan is still a mess." ~ Eric Longenhagen in today's chat.

Yes, his plan didn't succeed - but he may be a victim of his own success. Last year assembled a hodge-podge cast of characters from a bunch of clean peanuts that wildly succeeded expectations. He tried to do the same this year, and it hasn't worked. The in-house guys, in particular, have been duds (Middleton, Bedrosian, Paredes).

You’re into fasting, Chuck? p.s. And I agree re: Sosh. He’s got his strengths but I’m ready to turn the page.

Deadcock?

I’m guessing they took BR WAR after the five hit game and extrapolated from that. The pace is lower now.

I didn’t know STATS had their own version of WAR.

He won’t finish at .330+ but he could be a legit .300 hitter now. How about .304/.367/.439 for the year.

Not that there's anything wrong with it.

I wouldn't get rid of Calhoun, not unless some other team makes Eppler an offer he can't refuse (e.g. at least half salary relief and a good middle reliever). But assuming he stays, I think it is pretty simple: 1. EPPLER: "Kole, you really suck right now but we still love you. That said, we want to send you down to rework your swing." 2a. KOLE: "I understand - I'm a team player so will do whatever is best for the team." RESULT: Kole goes to AAA, Hermosillo or Blash comes up. 2b. KOLE: "F*ck that, I'm a major leaguer." RESULT: Kole becomes 4th outfielder, Young is DFAed. Hermosillo Blash comes up.

Further Update on Matt Shoewalker:

I think there’s a good chance he could out-perform Pujols right now. That said, I’d rather keep him in Salt Lake for another month or two and give Fernandez a shot, who I do feel confident would outperform Pujols.

Impressive, yes, but math fail. Not sure how you get 15.4, it’s exactly a third of the way through the season and he’s got 4.9 rWAR and 4.4 fWAR, so his pace is 14.7 or 13.2. in other words, he sucks.

The crazy thing is that his BABIP is still pretty low, so if that positively regresses to the norm than his numbers will be even better. Anyhow, he’s on pace for his best season. Nice to continue racking up 2nd place MVP finishes.

Calhoun, Kinsler, Pujols, and Valbuena.

Here's a crazy stat: Take away the negative fWAR of those four players from Trout's 4.4, and he's still at 2.7, which would be good for #6 in the majors.

The problem is less so any single one of the four, but the fact that four of our starting nine are really sucking up the joint. Here are their combined stats: .202/.252/.300, -1.7 fWAR in about 700 PA, which is about one-third of the team's total PA. That is destroying the offense.

Fernandez and Thaiss come to mind. Again, that phase out is what I think the Angels might do, not what I want them to do. It might even be what they "should" do, considering the psychological impact Pujols has on the team.

Warfarin, I basically agree with you but just don't think it is going to happen. My phase out process is a prediction, btw, not what I want to happen. What I want to happen is for him to really only be Ohtani's platoon partner, and Fernandez called up to take most of his PA. Then when Thaiss is ready--hopefully another month or two--Albert sits on the bench. Maybe he gets that honorary bench spot next year, but I'd like to see him done as a full-time starter right now.

I'm not worried about Adell or Marsh at all, except I think it was Warfarin's or Doc's speculation that maybe Marsh is nursing an injury as his slump goes back to Burlington. Adell seems to be on the fast route: he rises, takes a bit to adjust, then rakes. I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish the year in AA, and then play most of 2019 at AA before a late season cup o coffee at age 20.

There is literally zero chance the Angels dump Pujols, especially mid-season. We also probably own't see a Mystery Injury DL trip, as at this point I think it is clear to everyone that he's just not that good anymore and no amount of R&R is going to fix him. What is more likely to happen is that he is gradually phased out. With Thaiss have a breakout season in the minors and now killing AAA pitching, he's going to be forcing the issue. I could see Pujols remaining contract going something like this: 2018, first half: As is. 2018, second half: gradually losing PA to Fernandez, Thaiss. 140 games. 2019: platoon with Ohtani at DH, occasional start at 1B, pinch hitter. 120 games. 2020: As above, slightly reduced. 100 games. 2021: Honorary bench spot, occasional start. AKA, put out to pasture. 60 games. The above preserves his dignity, keeps team cohesion and clubhouse chemistry (Trout likes Pujols), and he's only really a totally wasted roster spot in 2021.

So you're saying we'll trade many long faces for one?

A writer! Awesome...that won me over. He seems like a well spoken, intelligent young man. I like the fact that he knows what's going on in minors (the Ward, Thaiss promotions). I also love the fact that he mentioned Votto as an inspiration at the plate. Hard to top that. He doesn't look 19...25, maybe. Great job, Dave!

Eric Longenhagen is asked about him every week or two in his Fangraphs chat and it is always some variation of "still overweight" or "not good," and Longenhagen actually sees the players in Arizona. He's the guy that is raving about Deveaux. Maitan's prospect stock has dropped considerably, but I'd like to see him play Rookie ball before resigning him to being on the Nonie Williams-to-Chevy Clarke career path. He is very, very young, after all. An optimistic outlook is simply that he needs a bit of time to mature and is maybe a year behind where we hoped, but still with elite potential. Either way he won't remain at SS for long - I see a 3B-to-1B career path ala Miguel Cabrera. But there's really no prospect in the system--perhaps all of baseball--with as wide a range of legitimate possible outcomes. He could be Miggy Cabrera or he could be Chevy Clarke. A guy like Trent Deveaux could be Tim Raines or Kenny Lofton, but from what I've heard of his skill set his worst likely outcome is a 4th outfielder in the major leagues.