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I think I read somewhere he really wanted to play for Maddon too. He probably could have made more money pitching elsewhere, but he wanted to be on the Angels.

I’m still hoping the full story of what happened comes out

“The New York Mets have formally offered free-agent starter Trevor Bauer a contract that would make him one of baseball’s highest-paid players on an annual average salary, a person with direct knowledge of the negotiations told USA TODAY Sports.” I guess in today’s world, someone with “direct knowledge” is the same as “The Mets confirm”. Sideshow Bob

Based on the numbers, Porcello would be a great acquisition. Especially if he comes at less than 1/2 of what Odorizzi would cost. SP fWAR projections 2021: Bauer - 4.2 Paxton - 2.7 Tanaka - 2.7 Richards - 2.1 Porcello - 2.1 Archer - 2.1 Odorizzi - 2.0 SP fWAR rank 2018-2020 Bauer - 11.5, 7th Paxton - 7.5, 29th Tanaka - 6.5, 36th Richards - 1.7, 141st Porcello - 5.9, 40th Archer - 3.2, 91st Odorizzi - 6.8, 32nd SP fWAR rank 2019-2020 Bauer - 5.8, 16th Paxton - 3.8, 39th Tanaka - 4.0, 37th Richards - 0.7, 161st Porcello - 3.5, 46th Archer - 0.7, 162nd Odorizzi - 4.2, 36th

The projections for the rotation have merit. As it stands, our top 4 have all performed like a #3 or better from 2019-2020. They could continue their performance, or all completely fall off, but you have to give them credit for what they have done. SP fWAR ranks 2019-2020 Bundy - 4.5, 29th Heaney - 2.7, 67th Quintana - 3.3, 51st Canning - 2.3, 82nd

You’re claiming something is a fact and trying to back it up with subjective viewpoints. The real fact, backed by data, is that the Angels rotation does not suck.

Both options exceed last years payroll by $20m+. Not saying it can’t happen, but those who have this set as an expectation are setting themselves up to be disappointed.

Pretty much. That’s a big if, but on paper the rotation is much better than people make it out to be.

I think the way people categorize pitchers is subjective, but the best way to keep it consistent is to try and be as objective as possible. I’d define Ace the same way you do. Everything else I’d categorize based on value (I like fWAR), since that takes into consideration innings pitched and effectiveness while disregarding “potential”. Potential is just potential until it actually leads to results. A #1 imo is a top 30 pitchers in baseball based on value over a certain period of time. #2 is 31-60 #3 is 61-90 and so on.

A 3.75 ERA over 170 innings would almost certainly put him in the top 50 pitchers in baseball. That’s not a #3 or #4.

Lindor/Story/Baez

With payroll currently being around $166m vs the $177m for 2020, I’d infer the team only spending around $15m more. Archer or Porcello - 1/$5m Hand or Rosenthal - 2/$15m Soria, Wilson, Melancon, Robertson, or Chafin - 1/$4m

@Dochalo want to help with floor, ceiling and potential for injury analysis?

Projected Depth Charts fWAR 2021 Bauer - 4.2 Paxton - 2.7 Tanaka - 2.7 Richards - 2.1 Porcello - 2.1 Archer - 2.1 Odorizzi - 2.0 SP fWAR rank 2018 Bauer - 5.7, 7th Paxton - 3.7, 21st Tanaka - 2.4, 45th Richards - 1.0, 113th Porcello - 2.4, 43rd Archer - 2.5, 37th Odorizzi - 2.5, 38th SP fWAR rank 2019 Bauer - 3.3, 35th Paxton - 3.5, 29th Tanaka - 3.2, 39th Richards - 0.0, 264th Porcello - 1.8, 78th Archer - 0.7, 144th Odorizzi - 4.3, 20th SP fWAR rank 2020 Bauer - 2.5, 4th Paxton - 0.3, 120th Tanaka - 0.8, 67th Richards - 0.7, 75th Porcello - 1.7, 24th Archer - NA Odorizzi - 0.0, 217th SP fWAR rank 2018-2020 Bauer - 11.5, 7th Paxton - 7.5, 29th Tanaka - 6.5, 36th Richards - 1.7, 141st Porcello - 5.9, 40th Archer - 3.2, 91st Odorizzi - 6.8, 32nd SP fWAR rank 2019-2020 Bauer - 5.8, 16th Paxton - 3.8, 39th Tanaka - 4.0, 37th Richards - 0.7, 161st Porcello - 3.5, 46th Archer - 0.7, 162nd Odorizzi - 4.2, 36th

I think as fans we often undervalue money owed. We saw examples of this with the Darvish trade. Or even in the Iglesias trade. -43 means they value Rendon at $176m versus the $219m he’s owed. And Upton at $8m versus the $51m he’s owed.

He’s a negative value because he’s owed $45 million over the next two years.

By the numbers: Bundy has been a #4, #2, #1. Settling closer to a #1/#2. Heaney has been a #1, #4, #2. Settling closer to #2/#3. Quintana has been a #3, #2. Settling closer to a #2. Canning has been a #4, #3. Settling closer to a #3.

SP fWAR rank 2018 Bundy - 1.0, 117th Heaney - 3.1, 29th Quintana - 1.6, 87th SP fWAR rank 2019 Bundy - 2.4, 55th Heaney - 1.2, 104th Quintana - 3.2, 38th Canning - 1.3, 95th SP fWAR rank 2020 Bundy - 2.0, 12th Heaney - 1.4, 34th Quintana - 0.2, NR Canning - 0.8, 68th SP fWAR rank 2018-2020 Bundy - 5.4, 47th Heaney - 5.6, 46th Quintana - 4.9, 57th SP fWAR rank 2019-2020 Bundy - 4.5, 29th Heaney - 2.7, 67th Quintana - 3.3, 51st Canning - 2.3, 82nd

It’s purpose is to help determine fair value. It has no power over teams who chose to trade for less.

The trade is so lopsided that BTV won’t even let you post it on their boards

https://www.mlb.com/video/chris-rodriguez-on-rookie-program

I took a look at last year’s number and would estimate that this year the pre-arb number will be around $4 million. That means the estimated payroll is about $158 million for 2021 as things stand. $19 million below last year’s total. I agree that it is unwise for those to expect $30+ million in spending available. It could be the case, but there’s nothing to indicate it is.