Warfarin

He’d be the cheapest to acquire for sure. Just one year left on his deal, so if he has a down year, he’s gone anyway. My preference is still Hernandez, but if his price tag is too expensive, then Kinsler is a decent, cheaper (in terms of prospects) alternative.

1B: LoMo, as long as he accepts 2 years. If his asking goes to 3, I think we pass. I’d love Santana, but I’m thinking Eppler wants to keep accruing draft picks vs forfeiting them. 2B: Kinsler. He can be obtained cheaply and is still productive. I would much rather have Hernandez, but the Phillies are under no obligation to move him. Again, this move is done with keeping an eye on keeping our farm system in tact. 3B: Valbuena / Marte. Valbuena is signed for the year and does have some value, might as well use him. I don’t think we will sign FAs at BOTH corners, so I am guessing this one stays the same. SP: No significant acquisitions, I hope. We have a lot of depth, we just don’t have much front line talent. I hope we don’t toss a multi-year 10mil/yr contract at an average starter for this reason. If we can sign someone to an incentive-laden one year deal though, then that’s fine. RP: Resign Petit and acquire a LH reliever (McGee?). We definitely need a lefty out of the pen, and I do think we address this. Probably amounts to about 30-35 mil added this year, which keeps us comfortably under the salary cap. 2B Kinsler CF Trout LF Upton 1B Morrison DH Pujols RF Calhoun SS Simmons 3B Valbuena / Marte C Maldonado

Ah, I see. I’m going to imagine the cost for him will be pretty high. That said, I’d be totally on board if we could acquire him. Hernandez is my top choice, but he’d be my second if he were truly available.

Why would the Indians trade Kipnis? That would be selling very low. Can’t imagine they’d do that.

I'd rather not think of any of these guys as trade bait. The Angels' dearth of minor league talent has been well-chronicled, but it appears to be turning around now. I'd like to hang onto as many of these guys as possible, especially guys like Barria, who could be a cheap backend starter for us for a number of years. Depth gets you through the season and star talent carries you in the postseason. We certainly have some legit star talent on this team, but we need more depth to carry us through. And well, perhaps another star, too.

The more I think about it, the more I like LoMo as an option to fill 1B for us. Santana is the superior player, but he would cost a draft pick and probably require an extra year's worth of a deal at the least. It's possible LoMo had a fluke season and regresses back to his previous form, but at least if he's just signed to 2 years, that's not a huge risk. I'd pass on Gordon though. If Hernandez's price tag is too much, then I'd just as soon rather look at other trade/FA options before Gordon.

I can see both Barria and Hermosillo contributing to the big league club this year for sure.

The Giants are the favorite, IMO. They are on the west coast and have a fantastic recent history. If the Giants take on Gordon’s contract AND send those prospects over, then they’ll get Stanton.

I will be shocked if JD Martinez hits 30 million annually. Boras is reportedly looking for 7/210, but I would be beyond stunned if he gets something close to that. Fair points about Stanton. I would personally still avoid him, as we are going to need to soon give Trout a new monster contract too. If Stanton underperforms or opts in, we will be paying close to 100 million for just 3 players (Trout, Stanton, Pujols). I’d rather diversify and spread risk by distributing dollars across various players then concentrating it so heavily on a few guys.

I see your point, and again, I would not sign him. Harper has posted a wRC+ if 173/117/209 over the past 3 years against RHP, just for the sake of comparison. Is that enough to justify the extra 10 million or so Harper will command per year vs Stanton? Probably not, no. I do disagree with your assessment that Stanton will probably opt out. His current contract is through his age 38 season. It’s hard to imagine him doing much better. If he mashes 60 plus homers for each of the next 3 years and stays entirely healthy, then maybe, but I think it’s much more likely he keeps his current contract.

Good point, but as you mentioned, it’s easier to find a player to help the team go from -1 to +1, and almost assuredly cheaper than trying to find someone to help your team go from +4 WAR to +6. It’s a useful tool because it enables you to identify specific areas of need that you can help improve with the limited financial resources available. As mentioned above, trading for Hernandez could enable us to add roughly 4-5 WAR alone, which is a huge upgrade. This is why, to me, this should be our greatest offseason priority.

I don’t, and like I said, I wouldn’t do it anyway because we’d be committing a significant chunk of resources to a single asset that is unlikely to provide commensurate returns. But yeah, with Harper, Trout, and Upton, we’d probably have one of the best outfields in the history of the game, lol.

All great points. For the right player, I am not averse to pursuing a large deal. With Stanton though, we already have two significant right handed power hitters in our lineup (Trout, Upton). If we really wanted to commit ourselves to a long-term deal, we might as well wait until next offseason and go all-in with Harper, who would fit between Trout and Upton perfectly in the lineup. I wouldn’t do it for all the reasons I already stated about long-term contracts, but if I were to pick one player who I would opt for, it’d be Harper over Stanton because I feel he is a better fit given the current team we have.

Truth be told, I find more satisfaction from the "under the radar" moves that pan out, like Bridwell.

If we could get Belt along with Panik in some sort of packaged deal, then that'd be fantastic. I doubt the Giants are looking to move Panik, but if we absorb Belt's full contract, then perhaps something could be worked out. Calhoun + Cron + SP prospect for Belt + Panik? Would help them clear some payroll (to perhaps help them land Stanton) and would also give them a solid starting RF (who could probably platoon with Pence, since they are looking to move Pence to more of a part-time role). We could even offer to take back Denard Span (has 1 year left on his contract + a mutual option), who could serve as our 4th OF. Would provide the Giants with roughly 12-15 million of payroll relief, provide a starting RF alternative option, and clear the way for a bigger acquisition for them.

I see your point and agree that Stanton is a generational talent. That said, I don’t see Friedman doing this at all. The Dodgers are big on both positional and financial flexibility, and this would greatly hamper their future financial flexibility. The Dodgers can even go back to 2011, when Matt Kemp posted a ridiculous season in his mid/late 20s, with a WAR of 8.4, and rewarded him with an 8 yr, 160 million contract. In the 6 seasons since that monstrous deal, he has a cumulative WAR of 5.0. Outfield is a tough gig that requires a good amount of athleticism, and all they need to do is look at how long term contracts turned out for Kemp, Ethier, Crawford. For those same reasons, I would pass on Stanton, even if all the Marlins wanted us to do was to pick up 250mil of the remaining deal and not send a single prospect. These monster contracts virtually never turn out well.

This highlights the huge benefit of acquiring Cesar Hernandez. We'd go from a -1.2 WAR at 2B to a 3.3 WAR, or a 5+ WAR turnaround. I know past performance does not guarantee future returns, but assuming no drastic changes, that's a significant turnaround at a single position, and it's a reason as to why I think second base is the prime target this offseason. If we can improve either 1B or 3B (whichever ends up being the better value play), then we could possibly add another 2-3 WAR in that spot, or a 7-8 WAR turnaround in offseason at just two positions. Combine that with a full season of Upton, some (hopefully) improved health from SP, a (hopefully) full season from Trout, and that's a huge improvement from one season to the next.

I don't see this happening at all. Maybe the Dodgers of the past, but not Friedman's Dodgers. The biggest contract that he has given out to date with the Dodgers was the 5/85 contract he gave out to Jansen. The second highest was to Turner at 4/64. Friedman is not going to trade for a 300mil contract player unless the Marlins willingly absorb at least 1/3 of that contract, if not more. Just doesn't jive with the way Friedman has operated that team since taking over.

Archer holds an immense amount of value. We don't have the farm system to acquire him. Even if we agreed to take on Longoria's contract, I still don't think we'd be able to swing that deal.

Those are some excellent points. I do feel it's unlikely we'll see BOTH corner IF spots upgraded in a single offseason. We have Valbuena, Cron, and Marte who can all, to some extent, play some kind of role. I would also prefer not to have several corner IFers locked down to a multi-year contract, knowing that we'll need some dollars to upgrade other positions soon (i.e. catcher, as Maldonado is entering the last year of his contract) in the upcoming offseasons. I like Santana's offensive game better than Moose's. He has a better eye and grasp of the strike zone, as evidence by his nearly 1:1 BB/K ratio. My concern with Santana is he is at the age where decline usually happens, and I feel we'd be paying him for his past accomplishments and not for future contributions. I'd strongly consider LoMo too. It concerns me that he's only had the one good year in his contract season, but if we can sign him to a 2/24-ish type contract, then that helps mitigate risk, since even if he proves to be a fluke, we'd just be stuck with him for 2 years. And he also has the benefit of not costing any draft compensation. With Moose, if he indeed gets an offer for 5 years, then let him go elsewhere, no biggie. There aren' many contenders looking for a 3B, and if you recall last offseason, Justin Turner signed at a considerably under-market contract to stay with the Dodgers (most thought he'd get 5 years, too). I think some of the big market teams that want a stud 3B will wait next offseason for Machado to hit the market. So with Moose, I say only sign him *IF* you can get him at a below-market value. I know people say that's unlikely with Boras, so again, if this is true, then forget it. All that said, if we can acquire Hernandez (my #1 offseason target) and Santana, then I'd say that's a pretty successful offseason. I'd like to acquire a lefty reliever as well (Minor? McGee? someone else?), but I feel we can possibly fill that cheaply as well if those options prove to be too expensive. Lineup: 2B Hernandez (S) CF Trout (R) 1B Santana (S) LF Upton (R) DH Pujols (R) **I'd bump him lower but realize that's unlikely** RF Calhoun (L) 3B Valbuena / Marte platoon SS Simmons (R) C Maldonado (R) This works out well, too.

I agree that 2B is the biggest area of need, but I would probably prioritize 3B above 1B. I think we could get by with Valbuena / Cron platooning at first. Valbuena is entering a contract year, and after a slow start last year, he performed well enough where I have some hope that he could be a decent contributor next year. Nothing special, but he can certainly be a complementary component for us. We also have Thasis coming up through the minors, although I don't know if he'll ultimately have the bat to stick at first. I am personally in the sign Moose camp, but ONLY to a "reasonable" contract. Max of 4 years, no more than 15mil AAV.

Personally, I don't think Walker really fits Eppler's vision. He seems to heavily prioritize up the middle defense, and Walker's admittedly subpar and bound to only get worse with time. I'd try to push for a trade of Hernandez from the Phillies. I don't know what they're looking for specifically (most likely young SP I imagine), but Hernandez would solve both our 2B and leadoff issue for at least several years. My preference at 1B is Santana, but I'd stop at 3 years, which takes him through his age 34 season. If someone gives him 4 guaranteed years, then just tip your cap and move along. We'd also have to surrender our 2nd round pick for him, so in some ways, I feel LoMo might be a better target. If he costs 2/24, then that's fine with me too - we get to keep our pick and add a lefty power hitter to provide some kind of lineup balance. I would like to sign Moose if he comes with a reasonable contract (4/60), which means he'd be with us through his age 32 season. He'd also provide some lineup balance for us. I feel 3B is a bigger priority than 1B, as I am okay getting by with a combo of Valbuena and Cron for another season if needed. Lineup: Hernandez 2B (S) Trout CF (R) Morrison 1B (L) Upton LF (R) Moose 3B (L) Pujols DH (R) Calhoun RF (L) Simmons SS (R) Maldonado C (R)