Warfarin

Definitely. Losing the 2nd round draft pick would hurt, but in some ways, it's been mitigated by signing Maitan, as signing him is essentially akin to having a high draft pick.

Confirms it was never really about the money, which most of us knew anyway, given how much money he was already forgoing coming early.

Appears multiple sources are saying we're indeed a finalist.

The prize in acquiring him isn't that you are getting one of the future top 5 pitchers in baseball, but rather that you are most likely getting a solid #2 starter on a minor league deal. It'd be somewhat akin to having an elite level prospect reach the majors and dominate. We don't have many young elite pitchers coming up in our farm system. He'd be huge for us and we'd get him for pennies on the dollar.

Well if Bob Nightengale says it, then he is definitely NOT going to the Mariners. Nightengale is terrible with his accuracy.

This is a good point, but the risk is minimal. The cost is the posting fee + a minor league deal. I say the downside to that is virtually none.

Past performance does not predict future returns. They have a poor history under different management groups. The current one has ripped their team apart, much like the Astros did, and drafted/traded heavily for the future, with contention in 2019-2020 in mind. If going to a winner matters, then I wouldn't say we have a huge advantage there either. We have one title, so it's not like we have a much more extensive history of success than the Padres do.

The affordability isn't the question. He basically has to sign a minor league deal. A team can't give him a minor league deal, then give him a monster 150+ mil contract a year later. The MLB has already said they are watching for fishy exchanges like that. As a result, whoever signs him is getting a massively, massively discounted player for years. This is why there's such a frenzy around him. You're getting what amounts to a 15+ mil player on a minor league deal. And it's why, IMO, he is a much bigger deal than Stanton. Whoever gets Stanton is probably absorbing an overvalued contract, whereas whoever gets Ohtani, is getting an absolute steal. For a team like us, who is stuck with the most overpaid player in the game for the next 4 years, it would be an ENORMOUS coup.

My twitter feed is literally a string of updates of each team being ruled out. This might go on for a bit.. haha.

I saw the Cubs floated in there, but if all of his picks are on the West Coast, then I have to imagine the Cubs' chances are rather remote.

If he wants to go somewhere without a previous Japanese star, then that just leaves the Angels, Giants, Padres. We'll see...

They have a legitimate farm system, a consensus top 3 system I'd say. SD is a great place to live. We don't know what his exact priorities are. It would seem presumptuous to rule out a team that has made it to his "finalists" list. Obviously he seems something in them.

Allegedly, he has the upside of an ace. Whether that comes into fruition, who really knows. I read somewhere in Japan, he started once a week and played the field a few days a week. We can realistically provide him with something like that. Have him start a certain day of the week (i.e. Sunday), then have him DH a few days in the middle of the week (Tu-Th?), and have him rest and prepare for his start otherwise. I think he would be an average DH. His bat is decent, but it seems he'd be just an average major league hitter. His upside is as a pitcher, which is something we truly need.

If the rumors that he wants to come to a place that he can establish his own legacy are true, then that would seem to rule out the Mariners, as they were the home to the greatest Japanese star to ever come to the MLB. He would be compared to Ichiro non-stop, and that's a tough comparison to have to live up to. The Padres, IMO, are a legitimate threat. They are the smallest market and have a tremendous amount of minor league talent about to emerge in the next 2 years. If Ohtani wants to go to an up-and-coming, small market West Coast team, that would be a strong one to consider.

Our actual physical location indicates otherwise

Signing Ohtani would be a franchise-altering move. We'd be getting, at worst, a #3 starter on a minor league deal who can DH on some nights. At best, we'd be acquiring a future ace on a minor league contract. That would be HUGE. And it would, IMO, also be a motivating factor for us to go after Stanton, although based on the rumored deals with SF and STL, I think that ship has sailed. That said, if he truly wants a "small market West coast team," then we absolutely have a shot, and a better one than SF, SEA, LA, as those are large markets. It'd come down to us vs SD.

Sorry, perhaps I should have expounded upon my "value" comment a bit further. With regards to value, I'm thinking Panik has an extra year of control and is cheaper. The Marlins want cost-controlled players for a longer duration. Hence, to the Marlins, I imagine Panik has discernibly more value to them than Calhoun does. On the other hand, to a contending team who just needs one more piece, then Calhoun might have more value to them than Panik.

I know the two are not related, but I think I'd feel better about absorbing Stanton's contract if we could ALSO get Ohtani as well. Ohtani is probably, at worst, a solid #3 starter and a decent offensive presence, and at best, a strong #2. If we win the lotto and sign him to a rookie deal, we'd have an incredibly discounted player. We will need discounted, undervalued players to help balance big contracts such as Stanton's.

Stanton is 28. He has 10 guaranteed years remaining, running through his age 38 season. He also has an option for his age 39 season. If he were "only" locked up through his age 35 season, it wouldn't be as bad. But...

Right, I see what you are saying. The question is, would we be able to generate a 90+ win team, half of our team payroll dedicated to 4 players (one of whom is one of the worst players in the game currently)? It's definitely possible, but we'd basically have to make sure we avoid any kind of future financial missteps in the process.

Right, but I think if the Marlins tell him well, it's either the Giants or stay here, then he'll probably say okay, I'll go to the Giants. Which is why we would need to beat the Giants in terms of what we offered, I imagine.

Right. For the normal free agent, teams are mum about their interest because they want to keep the price down. It's a free market, and if several teams openly state their intent/interest, the player's price goes up. Ohtani is different though - there's a definitive cap with how much he can be offered, so there's no need to be coy about it. Every team will offer the max bonus they can, and all 30 teams will be interested. When you can get a 150-200+ million dollar player for a minor league contract, then yeah, every team is going to be lined up to get in on that deal.

Right, we can beat them, but I just wonder if this is the absolute best utilization of our financial + prospect resources. It's fun to think about having a fully healthy, productive, 50+ homer hitting Stanton batting behind Trout, but have seen so many long-term deals go up in flames, I am a proponent of fiscal restraint and financial flexibility. We'd have 3 guys combining to earn about 90 million (or 4 for 100+ million if we get Dee too), and not much prospect depth in the immediate future to help fill the other gaps cheaply.

He gets posted tomorrow, and then has 3 weeks to sign with a team. So he'll basically be courted and fawned over for a few weeks as he sifts through his options.

Yes, but I think Panik > Calhoun in terms of value. So we'd need to top the Giants' offer with other prospects.