Pancake Bear

Earlier reports of the Mariners being out seem legit since Passan isn't mentioning them at all. Mets could circle back - it wouldn't be the first time - but I suspect they're not a team Ohtani is interested in. Yankees also not mentioned; I think they're out. Of the rest, I'm surprised to see Toronto still in, but I suspect there's little to that from Ohtani's perspective. Cubs were a team Ohtani was interested in last time, but the former brain trust there turned him off with their pitch. Different group in charge now, so maybe he's still interested in the idea of being a Cub. Giants have money to spend, got buttercupped twice with Arson Judge and Correa, so I'm sure the front office wants to make a splash, but beyond being on the west coast, I don't see what advantage they'd have over us in the short term. Still, I think Fletcher was right a week or so ago when he said it's the Dodgers or the Angels. Money won't be the deciding factor. It'll come down to whether he prioritizes the fit or who gives him the best chance to win. With most teams, being a "winning team" means little more than that they've been good lately, regardless of whether they're likely to win in the future. Angels are willing to spend money: They're one of the higher spenders in the league. The issue with the Angels is we haven't made the playoffs since 2014 and haven't won a playoff game in over a decade. Ohtani's experience here probably concerns him a bit if he's absolutely committed to playing in October (I.e. that's what motivates him more than anything at this juncture), and I would totally understand that.

Okay, so, after review: Heyward is 3 years older, and had an average WAR of 0 the previous two seasons. He hasn't hit as well as he did this season aside from the short sample size of 2020 since 2015. The rest of the last 8(!) years he's been a league average to below average hitter who gets by on elite defense. The Dodgers are re-signing a guy who improved under their watch. Maybe they know something, but we haven't exactly had a great history with betting on one year wonders (e.g. Cozart, Tyler Anderson, etching ). Yelich is worse defensively, but the worst hitting season of his career (2021 - back issues) was still league average. So, if you think Heyward is really a roughly equal player to Yelich this season, you have to 1) buy his improvement, 2) value his defense (which even most experts disagree about how to value it), and 3) care more about defense than hitting. IMO, Heyward is getting paid as a glove first outfielder who might be able to put up league average hitting. But you have to get at least a bit lucky to get 2-3 win player for under $10m.

Where is the age, history, and the rest of his stats? Not enough info there to make a real pick between the two.

I'm sorry, in what world is a guy who has a floor of a 2 win player right now worth only $8m? Last I checked, that's around the cost of 1 win. You could also argue he's closer to a 3 win player than a 2 win player, which would put him around $20m in value at present. Where exactly are you getting that valuation because you've entirely lost me.

If we had a healthy Trout and Rendon playing at least somewhat close to what they did when last healthy (Rendon 2020, Trout pre-injury 2022), that would go a long way towards making the lineup elite, even without any significant additions. I'm not expecting that, but if it happened, it would be huge. The reality is we never really had a healthy Trout and Ohtani performing at a high level at the same time for very long. It was always either one or the other.

Five more years. He kinda peaked in 2018-2019. Hasn't been anywhere close to that before or since. He's a solid enough player, but not worth $130m ($26m/) for the next five years. That said, assuming he's bounced back from the odd 2020 (small sample) and 2021 (back injuries), he's still serviceable. He fills a need in the outfield and would allow us to trade Ward to fill other holes, who may or may not have decent value still (BTV says he does). Also, the end of his contract coincides with Trout and Rendon. I'd probably want Milwaukee to pay at least a small amount of Yelich's yearly salary, maybe $5m per.

Depends whether they go 5 or 6. Also depends whether they trade someone. Currently rotation is Sandoval, Detmers, Canning, and Anderson. Does Canning have options? Because Anderson obviously doesn't, and they aren't sending Detmers or Sandoval down.

The Angels are in on Snell. The Angels are in on Cease. They're enamored with Burnes. Either these reports are all bullshit or the Angels are prioritizing a TOR arm this offseason. Wondering how much Ohtani is clogging up the market, though. Obviously just a DH in the short term, but the financial commitment he'll require probably means any team in on him wants that situation resolved before looking at any other big contracts.

You'd have to trade a prospect to get rid of his contract.

And the Rangers are still a bottom of the AL West team in 2023. Except...oh....wait for it...teams can improve.

Disagree. Anderson has negative value currently due to his contract. Considering he's said that the front office was making him pitch in a way that didn't fit his strengths, you're better off holding and seeing if Enright can get him back to a solid back end of the rotation starter.

Is it the full $100m, though? My understanding was they only get a certain amount of that and the rest goes to revenue sharing.

It really comes down to how much Arte wants to win vs how much he wants to just make money. Up till now, he hasn't been willing to go the distance in terms of what he'll spend. Last year, though, he at least went over the tax (not sure whether we ended up over or not), so it gives you hope that maybe he actually does want to win.

Really excited about Enright. What I dig is that he's got a good pedigree, being mentored by a guy like Strom. He also seems to have a good sense of what went wrong last year and what these guys are capable of. My favorite part of the Q&A, though, was when he said the front office is backing off their one-size-fits-all approach and leaving the data in the hands of the coaching staff to appropriate as needed. I.e. Perry is hiring coaches he trusts and then trusting them to disseminate the information they're getting from the analytics department in whatever way will be of most benefit to the pitchers. That all gives me hope that we'll see some of these guys get back to where they were or maybe even take a step forward.

Chuck in shambles.

Last year, we had Rendon, Urshela, Drury, Fletcher, Rengifo, and Walsh. Walsh and Rendon barely played. Urshela had a season ending injury. Fletcher is cooked. We ended the year with something like (I don't completely remember since I wasn't playing close attention by season's end) Rengifo, Drury, Neto (sometimes), Schanuel, and either Squid or Fletch. In other words, we absolutely should not assume that Rendon, Neto, Drury, Rengifo, and Schanuel will be enough. It's not like we have loads of great options in the minors. This is why I laugh when people say adding an infielder means we're trading somebody. Uh, no, we need depth because Rendon and Neto had significant injury issues last year and Neto and Schanuel may not be able to hold down a major league job all year. And Rengifo may or may not be a great option for a full time spot.

"Top pitchers will only go to contenders or teams I'm arbitrarily going to assign to that category (not the Angels)." Gotta do some serious contortions to make any sense out of that logic.

Ohtani's WPA over the past two seasons both on the mound and at the plate is nothing to complain about. He's comfortably in the upper echelon.

My kid's best friend's pediatrician is a cousin of Alex Curry, and she says that story is total BS.

I see we're at the "are we sure Ohtani is even good?" stage of grief.

Minasian (probably):

Yeah, the initial list had them targeting Chili Davis for hitting coach as well, and that didn't happen either, although unlike Hurdle I don't know if it was ever officially confirmed if they actually pursued Chili.

Your source was Tamin?

I know. I was just trying to shift the conversation. So, no info?

C'mon, Chuck, what're you hearing from your sources? They going after Ohtani or not?