Pancake Bear

And how much did we spend the last five seasons on it? It's like you didn't even read the Register articles and all you got out of them is "Arte bad".

Hopefully Ohtani isn't as smart as you. If he sees Arte's strategy, he won't sign an extension.

IIRC, an article said Arte was going to trade Ohtani last trade deadline but then changed his mind because he'd decided to sell the team. Why wouldn't he sell him if he's going to walk for nothing. Arte's a billionaire, not a moron.

How much did we just spend on international free agents? If you don't think there have been improvements, you lack objectivity. I'm not saying Arte is suddenly a perfect owner, or that I'm pleased about today's news, but to blindly pretend he hasn't made some changes is just absurd.

Point is Arte doesn't have time. Jackie Autry did.

If Ohtani won't sign an extension, they'll hold on to him until we see whether the team is a contender. If they aren't and Ohtani hasn't extended, he will be traded.

Jackie Autry wasn't on a deadline with the best player on the planet about to walk out the door.

Ohtani is the team's biggest asset. Only way the posturing theory works is if Moreno convinces Ohtani to sign an extension. If he doesn't and then puts the team back on the market, he's just lost value. And if he waits a year or two, the the team is likely to be worth less due to our best players being older. If his goal is to make more money of the sale, this is the dumbest way ever to do it.

If he gets Ohtani to sign an extension, most of the people hating today will be saying how awesome he is.

I kinda wonder if Arte pushed for Adell to be promoted quickly and pressured Eppler into it. I remember lots of people online were clamoring for Jo to be called up and Eppler said (to much fan hostility) that he wasn't ready. Then, suddenly, he was "ready". Except he wasn't. Just makes me think that maybe it was a "call him up or look for a new job" situation.

Marsh could have been if Maddon wasn't such an dolt.

Something, something, wins.

Never go back to Anaheim Angels, for one.

There's a difference between presumption and reasonable assumption, just as there's a difference between healthy skepticism and pessimism. Your argument seems to be that since one year wonders (or part of a year) are common and guys turning into legit stars at Ward's age is rare, we should expect he'll turn into a pumpkin, or at least regress. That is a decent probability argument, but there's no real analysis in it. A better argument would be in the case of Livan Soto, who some fans seem to think is a bonafide star based on 50 AB's, despite him running a .500 BABIP. And that's the thing: When it's just a lucky run, there are usually signs of that to indicate it isn't sustainable. BABIP is usually one of the easier ways to spot a run of luck. However, Ward doesn't show any obvious signs of his improvement being unsustainable other than a pessimistic view of his mid-season struggle (which is well-established as being while he was playing hurt). I would also argue that there are probably a lot of players who have been capable of a lot more if they were coached better to maximize their potential, and I think we're starting to see those kinds of breakthroughs more often. It's also worth pointing out that having been a catcher, Ward would have a good eye at the plate, and he's shown signs of improving with his contact abilities the last few seasons. I see no reason not to assume he's capable of being a 130-140 wRC+ this season, and possibly even better than that, based on his beginning and end of the year.

"Ohtani signs an extension with the Angels" is not a story that draws clicks. But, the best player in baseball is potentially a free agent next season and looks primed to sign the highest guaranteed contract ever? That'll sell. And any competitive team's fans (and some that hope their team will be competitive) gets excited about the possibility. Simple as that. Disagree. First, I'd argue only a handful of teams could sign him and remain competitive because of the amount of payroll space he'll take. Any team that is currently complaining about spending or nickle and diming things is unlikely. Of the teams that can afford it, unless Ohtani changes his mind about playing in the east (people really ignore the fact that he already was very clear in 2017 that he had no interest in playing back east), it really comes down to just the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants. The Dodgers and Padres are good right now, the Giants aren't any better than the Angels at the moment, and arguably worse. But that is all leaving aside two issues: One is that Ohtani could have waited longer to come over to begin with and signed a huge contract then. Two is that he could have signed with a team that was already good then. He didn't do either of those things. Which suggests that maxing out money, or playing for a big name team like the Dodgers, or being with whoever was the best team last year are not deciding factors for him. Personally, I see Ohtani as a guy who, if the money is there and the team is committed to competing, would prefer to stay. Word is he wants to wait to see who new ownership is (presumably to see if they are committed to winning) before negotiating a potential extension. Unless the new owners are fools, he'll be locked up before he hits the open market.

1. Someone will pay him that much. 2. Ownership can afford it. 3. As noted in the article, he provides a lot of off-field value - potentially as much as $100m. 4. Our window isn't ten years from now, it's the next few years before Trout and Rendon* have little potential to provide much value. At 5+ years, those two are likely to already be albatross contracts. 5. Overpays are necessary to win. 6. See #2. QED.

That's a -3.3 WAR despite Velazquez actually providing positive value (albeit not a lot). Shows how bad the rest was.

Walsh was an all star in 2021 and his numbers were overall solid enough (albeit not all star level) in 2022 until the injury. Unless they have serious doubts about his return form injury, I don't expect him to miss many days when we're not facing a lefty. Since we know Tamin was really big into having a regular rest plan for relievers to prevent injury and maximize production, it makes me wonder if there is similar thinking with the position players and they're maybe planning on Rendon particularly not playing more than 5 days a a week at most. I suspect all three of Rendon, Urshela, and Walsh will get in the neighborhood of 4-5 days a week as starters if healthy and they'll play a lot of matchups in late close games to pinch hit for guys like Stassi or whoever else isn't hitting much.

Some of those guys have had time make their shortcomings more evident than they were at the time. Maddon might as well have titled his book, "I'm Stuck in the Past". Dipoto has things he's better at and things he's worse at. One common denominator through a lot of the Mike Trout era in which the team has mostly sucked is that the vast majority of those seasons involved a front office and coaching staff at odds. The Scioscia coaching staff had varying degrees of problems with Dipoto and later Eppler. Eppler got one shot at his own guy with Ausmus and it didn't work out. In Ausmus' defense, we just didn't have enough good players that season. Skaggs' death did Ausmus no favors either. Whatever anyone thinks of Ausmus, he never really had much of a shot to succeed, imo. Maddon was clearly not Eppler's pick, and while Minasian said all the right things, it has become obvious since then that there was a lot of friction behind the scenes. I'm not sure I think Nevin is the guy to take us forward, but one thing in his favor is apparently he's Minasian's (interim) guy. If Minasian makes it past the new owners, it'll be interesting to see if he sticks with Nevin or not. So, basically, since Trout came up full time, we've had 1.5 seasons in which the front office and coaches were all on the same page out of 11. That's it.

A chance? Maybe, but I wouldn't bet anything on it.

?

Obviously a lot will depend on health and performance, but this feels like a solid rough projection.

I think Eppler definitely mismanaged Adell. It feels like there was a lot of pressure to call him up - maybe from Arte also - and Eppler brought him up before he was ready.

Nobody said he was Milton Bradley.

If you say so. I think he's capable of humility and certainly of hard work, but sometimes it seems like maybe he gets frustrated and misdirects blame for his struggles. I'm glad he's at Driveline and I hope he figures out his batting and defense issues. There's a lot of potential there. This latest thing could be nothing or it could be reactionary if he was putting a lot of work into making the team and feels like now he won't get his shot. It's not true: He can earn a spot if he forces the decision by playing well. And if not, a year (or part of one) in the minors may be what he needs, whether he recognizes that or not. I don't pretend to know what he's thinking beyond what he says and does.