Angelsjunky

Maybe because he should know how many outs there are?

I didn't say that, gotbeer. I fully expect Hamilton to have a much better year than Wells. The point of this thread is to get an OBJECTIVE view as to how Jerry Dipoto's moves have actually worked out - based on actual numbers. That is, in the end, the only way we can judge his performance. So far its not looking good, but as I said it is only 10 games into the season. I'd like to update this every ten games or so to keep track.

Dipoto's desperate.

Let's take a look at the players Dipoto got rid of and who he replaced them with. As you know, Dipoto basically swapped Vernon Wells for Josh Hamilton, Greinke, Haren and Santana for Vargas, Blanton, and Hanson, and Walden for Madson. It isn't a direct swap but that's how the team has been changed up - and I'm not looking at some of the minor moves like Izturis, Lowe, Burnett, etc. How do Dipoto's offseason moves look after 10 games? WELLS vs. HAMILTON Wells - .310/.412/.621, 2 HR Hamilton - .179/.261/.231, 0 HR STARTING PITCHERS Zack Greinke - 1.59 ERA, 1-10 BB-K in 11.1 IP Dan Haren - 9.00 ERA, 0-10 BB-K in 9 IP Ervin Santana - 3.21 ERA, 2-15 BB-K in 14 IP Jordan Walden - 2.25 ERA, 0-4 BB-K in 4 IP Jason Vargas - 4.76 ERA, 5-8 BB-K in 11.1 IP Joe Blanton - 9.00 ERA, 3-4 BB-K in 10 IP Tommy Hanson - 6.55 ERA, 2-6 BB-K in 11 IP Madson - NA So far Dipoto's moves look terrible. With the lone exception of Dan Haren, all the players he traded, let go of, or didn't re-sign are thriving and none of the players he's brought in are doing well. Obviously the usual "its early" caveat applies, but early on Dipoto is looking less like a JeDi and more like a JeDuh (or JeDud).

So you were xenophobic as such a young age? Or should we call it canuckophobic? Getting to 6-14 is easy enough: that's 4-6 over the next ten games. I'm not saying they're going to win the WS, just that there is a precedent for not only slow starts but a team even starting 2-8. The 2003 Marlins were 42-42 and only got above .500 for good on July 1, after which they went 49-29.

...in case you're wondering, was the 1992 Toronto Blue Jays who were actually quite mediocre until they caught fire in June, winning their first 15 games of the month and going 22-6 for the month. It is also interesting to note that very few World Series champions end up starting the year red-hot. Here are every World Series champion team from that '92 Blue Jays team to the present, with their record through 10, 20, and 40 games: 2012 – Giants: 4-6 /10-10 / 21-19 2011 – Cardinals: 4-6 / 11-9 /22-18 2010 – Giants: 7-3 /12-8 /22-18 2009 – Yankees: 5-5 /10-10 / 23-17 2008 – Phillies: 4-6 /10-10 / 22-18 2007 – Red Sox: 6-4 / 13-7 / 28-12 2006 – Cardinals: 5-5 / 13-7 / 25-15 2005 – White Sox: 7-3 / 16-4 / 28-12 2004 – Red Sox: 6-4 / 14-6 / 24-16 2003 – Marlins: 4-6 / 9-11 / 18-22 2002 – Angels: 3-7 / 6-14 / 23-17 2001 – Diamondbacks: 4-6 / 10-10 / 22-18 2000 – Yankees: 7-3 / 13-7 / 24-16 1999 – Yankees: 7-3 / 14-6 / 23-17 1998 – Yankees: 6-4 / 15-5 / 31-9 1997 – Marlins: 8-2 / 11-9 / 24-16 1996 – Yankees: 6-4 / 11-9/ 24-16 1995 – Braves: 7-3 / 11-9 / 23-17 1993 – Blue Jays: 6-4 / 12-8 / 21-19 1992 – Blue Jays: 2-8 / 9-11 / 19-21 Notice that of those 20 teams, 7 were below .500 after 10 games and only 4 of 20 were 10 games or more above .500 after 40 games. I haven't looked into it further, but it may be that World Series champions tend to do better later in the year than earlier (although the 2000 are at least one obvious exception: they went 3-15 over their last 18 games, but then managed to go 11-5 in the postseason to win their third WS in a row). Obviously starting 2-8 isn't good, but it isn't quite "season over." Baseball is a game of cycles - every team struggles.

You can't really be this simplistic?

Its too soon to say just about anything, but from what we've seen I'll go on record with the following predictions: - Howie Kendrick is going to have a career year, even better than 2011. I'm thinking he'll hit around .300/.350/.480 with 15-20 HR. - Mike Trout won't hit .300. I hope he does but I see him hitting more in the .290s. Until he cuts down on those strikeouts - which I think he will - he'll have a hard time breaking .300. And yes, I do think he's going to regress significantly this year and then jump forward again next. I think something around a 290 BA, an OPS in the range of .850-.900 and about 25 HR and 40 SB. Still very, very good - 7 WAR, maybe. - Albert Pujols is back. Maybe not 2010 back, but he'll have his best year since then. Look at the 9 walks - that's a great sign. How about .300/.370/.580 with 35 HR? - Hank Conger will end up with more PA than Chris Iannetta. Call it a hunch due both to Iannetta' injury history and my feeling that Hank is going to hammer the ball and Iannetta will eventually get injured, or at least be moderated to prevent injury. - Garret Richards is going to keep his rotation spot. OK, we haven't seen one start yet but I think he's going to surprise and win a starting job, even when Weaver gets back. Most likely rotation demotion would be Blanton. I'll even go so far as to say that Richards will be to 2013 what Lackey was to 2002: a young player that comes in and stabilizes the rotation. But unlike Lackey, I think Richards won't struggle for the next couple years but solidify his place as the Angels' #3 starter. - Josh Hamilton is about to catch fire. There's been signs of it the last couple games, but he's going to start destroying the ball soon. Very soon. - The Angels are about to catch fire. Well, not really but they're about to turn this ship around. I went on record predicting a 13-14 April and despite the fact that they'll need to go 11-7 the rest of the way and it seems like 11-16 or 10-17 is more likely, I'm sticking with it. - The bullpen will wobble but gradually stabilize and even become very good. - The Angels will win 93 games and earn a wildcard berth. Come on folks, let's get excited here! Its April baseball!!!!!!!

I wouldn't say by far - Howie's been hitting very well. But the point is, his improved plate discipline bodes well for a resurgence.

It is seemingly small but potentially huge in impact: Albert Pujols has 9 walks in 9 games, a 22.0% walk rate. Check out the trend over the last few years: 2009: 180 wRC+, 16.4% 2010: 164 OPS+, 14.7% 2011: 146 wRC+, 9.4% 2012: 132 wRC+, 7.8% 2013: 170 wRC+, 22.0% (wRC+ is Fangraphs' more sophisticated version of OPS+; 100 is average, 120 good, 150+ great). Now obviously he won't keep walking at that pace, but note that last year he didn't draw his 9th walk until his 41st game - and we all know how he did then. A lot of analysts have pointed to the decline of his plate discipline and the clear correlation to his overall hitting. If Albert has truly figured this out then we might see his best year since 2010...which would be a lot better than many of us expected (or feared). Even if he gets back to "only" a 150 wRC+ it will be huge for this club. Watch the walk rate. I think it will be one of the best indicators of what sort of season Albert will have, and whether we're getting something closer to vintage 2010 and before Pujols or the 2011-12 diminished version.

Gene Mauch.

At only 9 games into the season you've got to let them try to play out of this funk. It isn't time to try to "fix" anything.

This new era of Angels baseball sucks.

My Trout prediction: .250/.320/.400, 10 HR, 20 SB

Wow, Adam, that's pretty pessimistic - especially for the payroll that Moreno's shelling out. Lifetime, my name is Jonathan, not Justin. And you might realize that i'm not one to overly "Scioscia bash." I do wonder, though, if he's past his prime as a manager.

As I've said before, a more reasonable expectation for Trout this year is more like .290/.900, 25 HR and 40 SB. That would still be a great year, especially with his defense - around 7 WAR. I'm not saying he won't out-play that, but if we're talking reasonable expectations - a line under which performance would be disappointing - I think that's about right.

Lifetime, the point is for a bit of fun and as a mental exercise. There's no harm in it. Honestly, I don't know what the point is of coming into a thread and asking what the point of it is. To Brian et al, as for Scioscia's role in the team's struggles, I think it is less a factor after 8 games - unless we're talking about bad call after bad call, which I don't think we are - and more a factor 50 or so games into the season. If the Angels are 20-30 and we're hearing grumblings about clubhouse tensions then you've got wonder what Scioscia's doing wrong. But at 2-6 we're more in a "Hmm, interesting, hope they figure things out soon" state. Good post, Dochalo. I can't help but think the Angels are in their "Hellenistic phase" (if you know your Greek history) or Empire phase of Rome - over-ripe after an earlier golden age, and trying to compensate for lack of the "It-factor" that championship teams always have with big contracts. I also agree that huge contracts almost never work out well, which is one of the reasons I'm more hesitant to applaud Dipoto as the supposed "JeDi Master." He seems to ignore that history. If the team tanks this year I think the best we can hope for is that Moreno and Dipoto realize something is rotten and they sell off what parts they can and go for a leaner, meaner look, focus on the farm and bargain hunting until the farm is thriving. This might mean some only-decent years but it would also mean that once Trout hits his prime years the farm would be churning out prospects.

First, a disclaimer. I honestly think the Angels will figure things out and win 90ish games and sneak into the playoffs, if only barely. They're just too talented not to and, well, it is early. But let's talk about the alternative for a moment - the worst-case scenario. What if...Trout truly regresses, Pujols continues his only-good performance from last year, Hamilton struggles and/or is injured, Trumbo bombs in the wrong way, Bourjos sucks, the pitching staff is awful, etc....and the Angels end up with 80-something wins and miss the playoffs. What happens? Do heads roll? Certainly Scioscia and Dipoto would be on the hot-seat but do you think Arte would make any major changes? Even go the firesale route and re-build the team (as much as possible) from scratch? Re-trade for Vernon Wells? Or would it be another year of "We played well but had our struggles; let's see how we do next year"? Again, remember that this team has one of the highest payrolls in baseball and the is predicted by many to not only be a shoe-in for the playoffs but a World Series favorite. To win 80-something games would be a complete disaster. What would Arte do?

If Richards pitches well maybe when Weaver gets back Blanton can become the most expensive batting practice machine in the world. His soft lobs would be perfect for it. I think I could make contact with his pitching.

I hear ya, my friend, but one way to fight that melancholy is with humor.

Alright, the Angels will eventually pull themselves out of this funk but for now let's enjoy the misery. I'll start... Remember when the Angels had good starting pitching? Remember when Mike Trout was good?

Ha ha. Yeah, it looks like a good one. I assume you've seen the movie, Talent for the Game? It isn't really about the Angels in any historical way but the main character is a scout for the Angels. One of the more unknown, under-rated baseball movies.

I didn't know you could read, Chuck.

Agreed. But as I said, we're more in "greenish yellow" than "orangish yellow." If we're 9-18 on May 1st I think we can start to worry, and if May is little better we can ramp it up to Red.

Or: BLUE: A raving lunatic of un-concern. GREEN: Not concerned at all. YELLOW: A little concerned. ORANGE: Very concerned. RED: A raving lunatic of concern.