tchula

Thank you everyone for putting the time and effort in making/compiling this list.  This is incredibly well done (as are the prior list).   On the hole, I'd be interested in your takes on how this top 30 compares the prior years.  The Angels are still listed in the mid to low 20's, but I see some solid prospects here (much more than in the past).  And, although some of our top pitching prospects (Bachman cough cough, and Rodriguez) are let down in terms of starting, both could become elite relievers which is nothing to shake a stick at.   I am very curious to what a post-Art minor league system will look like.  

Great job and great summary.  I noticed we put a premium on power with the position players we drafted.  

I know there is a lot of negativity (and rightfully so) around our organization, but the one good thing we did last year was add a lot of quality arms to our farm system in last year's draft.  If we do that again, we'll be following the trajectory of the Braves' farm system back in 2017-18.  I actually am cautiously optimistic on Perry's ability to rebuild the farm.  Eppler took a lot of gambles and then rushed his gambles, which I think left us with poor results.  Now, whether Perry is good enough in managing our roster remains to be scene, and I am not sure I like how he pushed Silseth way too fast, but that aside, we picked up a lot of quality arms in 2021.  If we do that again, our farm system will be much more stable than it is now.  

I am hoping for Barriera and hope someone like Reggie Crawford falls to us in round 3.  I could also see us taking someone like Dylan Lesko (despite his TJ) or Gabriel Hughes, and sign them to under slot value, and then pick best available in third and/or fourth round and sign them to over slot value.  

Honest question about Erstad and just college coaches in general.   How many college coaches at a single school for 5+ years without making it to the college world series have ever produced at the Major League level?  The two sports (college and pro's) are completely different and he's only shown moderate success in the former and has no experience in the ladder.  His biggest selling point is he made the Dodgers top three, but since then he's been out of baseball for the most part.  Doesn't hiring someone with that pedigree (please imagine his name wasn't Darrin Eristad) really leave you scratching your head?   

Some revised prospect rankings are starting to trickle out.   There seems to be more buzz about Werner Blakely and Edgar Quero.  I would also include guys like Guzman and Placencia but both were highly rated international signees if I am not mistaken.  But Blakely and Quero are really putting together nice seasons.  I wouldn't at all be surprised if one or both of them start next year as a top 5 or 10 prospect in the organization.    

6 minutes ago, floplag said:

And, we have help on the way.. Stassi coming back, Reyes, Buttrey in the pen... were in a very good place.
The only thing i find supremely irritating at this point is the glut of middle infielders playing all over the place.
 

Rengifo is s catching on.  As long as he continues to be serviceable at 2nd, he could stick that spot while we let Vasquez and Fletcher duke it out for short. 

9 hours ago, aznhockeyguy said:

I'd give this team an A right now.  It would've been an A+, but the last series in Texas brought this grade down.  Had the lead late in all 3 of those games. 

 

Hitting: A+

Starting Pitching: B+ (Still trying to figure out that 6th spot, everyone else has been rock solid and surpassed expectations.)

Bullpen: B+ (Mostly because of the last 3 games)

Defense: A- (Adell's play really brought this down.)

 

Specific player grades:
 

Ward: A++++

Where did he come from?!?!  Obviously, most Angels fan have casually heard of him but now he's turned into post-steroid using Barry Bonds.  He's always had a good eye (~8-9% career walk rate coming to this season) and most people would've been happy if he hit .270/.340/.450 with solid defense in the OF for a full season this year, but obviously he's doing much better than that.  He won't keep hitting like this all season, but it's been great to watch.  

 

Trout: A+

He looks healthy, now can he stay that way? When he plays, he's great and does it all. 

 

Ohtani: A-

After a season for the ages last season, can he do it again?  Though he got off to a slow start hitting wise, it looks like he's starting to figure it out.

 

Marsh: B+ 

Small sample size but looks like he's adjusted after his debut last season.  Looks more comfortable hitting this season and the number show the improvement so far and his defense is substantially better than Adell's.

 

Walsh: B

His numbers are down from last season but the league isn't hitting much better either which is why his OPS+ is the basically the same as last season. 

 

Velazquez: B-

Feels like every game, he does something amazing on the field.  His hitting has improved last couple of weeks.

 

Rendon: C+

He's starting to heat up a little bit, but he looked broken at the start of the season as he couldn't rotate his hips and generate power.  If he can get back to his old form with the bat, the lineup will be that much more dangerous.

 

Wade: C

He started off hot but cooled off considerably.  He's a huge threat when he gets on base.

 

Stassi and the catchers: C-

I was hoping that Stassi can keep up his numbers from prior seasons and for the most part he has in the power and walk department, but he's been striking out a lot.  The rest of the catchers have been meh due to low playing time and injuries.

 

Syndergaard: B

We had no idea how he'd perform or if he'd be able to stay healthy, but with the exception of his latest start he's been good.  The low K numbers concern me, but if he keeps giving the Angels solid innings, it doesn't matter.

 

Lorenzen: A

Why give him an A when I gave Syndergaard a B? Because he was a reliever and the history of relievers turning into starters isn't great and also because he's putting up similar numbers but has gone deeper into games and is being paid a lot less than Syndergaard.  He's been a pleasant surprise.  Much like Syndergaard, the low K number concern me, but as long as he's effective it doesn't matter too much. 

 

Loup: A+

Dude's been unhittable from the pen.

 

Sandoval: A+

My pick for breakout player this season and he's been doing exactly that.  He's been unhittable at times, but he's also wild.  If he learns to better control his pitches, he'll be a great starter and a solid #2 behind Ohtani.

 

Detmers: C+

Take out the no-hitter and Detmers hasn't been great and not going very deep in some of his starts.  Some of that is on Maddon giving him an early hook.  He's still young and has good stuff and he's still a rookie.  Hopefully he figures it out sooner rather than later.  I'm still high on him.

 

Tepara: D

He's looked awful hittable and not fooling anyone. His strikeouts has plummeted from prior seasons.  I'm very worried that he might have some arm trouble he's trying to play through or he's lost something.

 

Hegret: B+

He's been great lately and has saved the bullpen by going long in some of the games he's appeared in. 

 

Ortega: A+

Same story here.  Though his walk and strike out numbers concern me.  Smoke and mirror candidate here.

 

Barria: A

Same story here as well.  Long guy that's saved the bullpen the times he's come in pitching multiple innings. 

 

Iglesias: B-

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.  Looked unhittable early and then the last week, blow a save and gave up 2 walk off homeruns with the lead.  The long ball has plagued him his entire career.  His history of production indicates he'll figure it out.

 

 

 

 

13 hours ago, HeavenlyHalos said:

This is my favorite thread to come to after an Angels loss. This community does a phenomenal job of keeping up with the minors and providing updates for those of us who do not follow as closely (i.e. myself). I really appreciate all the effort; there are too many members to list but you know who you are

I agree dude, wholeheartedly.  I almost wished there was a separate message board just for minor leagues with different threads focusing on different players.  There are quite a bit of posters who provide good insight.  The minor league discussion thread is my favorite part of Angelswin. 

Thor looked dreadful.  I was talking him up earlier, but without his dominant velocity, when his secondary stuff is completely off and he doesn't have the monster fastball to make-up for it, the wheels will come off fast.   Thus far, he looks like a # 3-4 at best.  He's not going to command a top dollar contract.  

Remember, we have a double-header on Saturday.  I am sure that has something to do with the day off and extra rest.  

I am curious, at one time do we start looking at signing an extension with him, and if we do, what do you think it will look like?  Also, does anyone have any concern about his drop in velocity?  It's fine where it is now, but do you also have concerns that it will continue to drop precipitously over the next couple of years like it did for Bundy, and others like him? 

Trout needs to wear a padded glove to protect the back of his left hand.  Lord knows he wears that mitten when he slides.  I certainly hope it's not broke.  I do expect him to miss the next series though to give it time to heal.  At the minimum it is badly bruised.  In the mean time, quit this platooning shit, play Marsh and Walsh every day. 

4 hours ago, Second Base said:

I see that in Erla and Silseth. Do you see any considerable upside in the others aside from Bachman and Bush? 

To me, it looks like a lot of advanced arms that end up in the bullpen. I was burned too many times by Dipoto's collegiate arms that he drafted. 

I also think Albright has some upside.  But we really won't know for a while.  

Brett Kerry's stats this year (I know it's early) are silly.  He didn't make any top 30 lists, but was a 5th round pick last year.  His draft bios seemed promising (projecting more as a reliver than anything).  What's the story on him?

20 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

 

This is awesome!  Thanks guys   

It looks like he could have sprained his left ankle planting to make that throw.  But even that would be pretty week.  Hopefully he just got the stomach bug and that's it. 

I hope that's eastern standard time, because we all have waited long enough

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I agree, although I think that whole WAR salary thing is overdone, and really doesn't apply to closers and high leverage relievers in general. You can't accurately measure by WAR the value of a lights-out reliever ending a rally.

I've gone on record that they should offer him the QO because:

1. He probably won't accept it.

2. If he does, worst-case scenario and the Angels overpay him by $4-5M for one year ($18.9M vs the $14-15M+ he'll likely cost).

3. If he doesn't, and doesn't resign with the Angels, they get a compensation pick (if the draft works the same next year).

Honestly, I am undecided if we should offer Raisel Iglesias a qualify offer.  But, I admit, your reasoning is pretty damn strong.  On the one hand everything you say is true, but on the other that would eat into what will be likely half our free agent payroll and we still have to sign at least two pitchers and a short stop if we want to compete next year in my opinion, especially with all the injuries we've had this year.   But your right.  I bet he rejects the QO because he'll be looking for a long term deal.  Someone is sure to sign him (if not us), and at the minimum we'll get another 2nd round pick.  It would be nice to really start improving our minor league selections in rounds 3-10.  

I think Cobb will resign for something like 2 year $20 million, and I would be OK with that.  No matter the price tag, I hope he have a club option for anything beyond 1 year.  If we do bring in Cobb, I think we need to bring in or trade for someone else.  

17 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

@tchula, are you actually Joe Maddon in disguise?

Not quite.  I tend not to blame him for our lack of pitching depth and what not.  Due to his massive success elsewhere, I wanna see how it plays out.  

13 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Let's avoid the "a small island with supermodels" comments. OK, go ahead if you must--and I probably just opened the flood-gates--but I just wanted to pre-empt the smartassery. Onto the topic at hand....

Consider this a pre-Hot Stove discussion. There have been comments scattered throughout the forum, but let's consolidate it. From what I can tell, the Angels have $40-50M to spend this offseason. Let's say $45M...how do you spend it?

Considering all expiring contracts, I think the priorities are, in order:

1. A bullpen (3+ relievers). This is obviously the biggest concern, with only Mayers under club control for 2022, other than guys who have spent most of the year in the minors like Pena, Wantz, Warren, and Quijada. They've also not newcomer Selman, but he seems mediocre at best, and a bunch of minor leaguers to consider, including newcomers Elvis Peguero and Jose Marte. But the cupboard is pretty barren, as far as proven, quality relievers. So while they can fill several slots from within, I figure they'll want to sign at least three quality relievers, include a closer (e.g. Raisel Iglesias).

2. A starter. While the Angels are all of a sudden relatively flush in solid young starters--with breakthrough performances from Ohtani and Sandoval, "quasi-breakthroughs" from Suarez and Barria, two top prospects in Detmers and C Rod on the cusp, and, of course, presumably Canning will be back--it seems unlikely they won't go after at least one quality starter. They've also got several minor leaguers who could conceivably start major league games next year, like Davis Daniel, Jhonathan Diaz, and Janson Junk, not to mention top pick Sam Bachman possibly later in the year. So while a starter isn't absolutely necessary, it is probably a good idea to sign at least one guy, either Alex Cobb or someone like Marcus Stroman. The big fish will be Kevin Gausman, but he'll almost certainly be garnering the type of mega-contract that will be prohibitive to the Angels.

3. A shortstop. While there is a big crop of good shortstops available, this will likely be a budget signing--whether bringing Jose Iglesias back or rolling the dice on Luis Rengifo, or possibly moving Fletcher back to SS and going with an extended try-out at 2B/utility with Rengifo, Franklin Barreto, Michael Stefanic, or even fringe prospects Brendon Davis and Luis Aviles.

4. A back-up catcher. Max Stassi has emerged as a legit major league starting catcher. Consider that his 2.4 fWAR this year is 7th among all catchers, and he's done it in only 170 PA. The Angels might want to give Matt Thaiss a chance, with someone like Bemboom in AAA as insurance, or they might want to sign a cheap defense-first backup. Regardless, Suzuki is gone and we can only hope that it is lesson-learned, as far as a poor defensive catcher is concerned.

One Possible/Likely Scenario: "2021, Take Two"

The Angels re-sign Cobb for $9-10M AAV, Raisel for $14-15M AAV, and Jose Iglesias for $5-7M AAV. That's $28-33M just for those three players, leaving about $15M for two or (preferably three) more relievers and possibly a back-up catcher. A quality veteran reliever usually costs around $5-6M per year, so that should work out.

Meaning, they bring back those three players and spend the rest on re-vamping the bullpen. So basically you have the same 2022 team, but hope for better health from the lineup, continued improvement from the young starters, and you add a better cast around Raisel in the bullpen. Thus, "2021, Take Two."

Other Possibilities

Alternately, they can go the budget route at SS and either go after Stroman instead of Cobb or spend a bit more on relief.

I don't see them putting the required money into an elite starter, whether it is a huge 6+ year, $200M deal for Gausman or an expensive shorter deal for Scherzer (assuming he goes to free agency, which is probably unlikely). I also don't see them going after a more expensive shortstop than Iglesias. On the other hand, if they are willing to trade prospects to build up the bullpen, they might consider signing one of the better starters rather than (or in addition to) Cobb.

But without trades, I see them spending about two-thirds of their cash (~$30M) on the bullpen, about half of which will go to Raisel Iglesias and the other half to two or three veterans. The other one-third goes to a starter and a shortstop. The money ($45M) doesn't quite work, but they can budget-shop for that fourth reliever.

Don't Forget About Trades!

Trades are also possible. The Angels don't absolutely need both Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell, and as much as I'd like to see that Trout-Marsh-Adell outfield, these guys have significant trade value. I could also see them creating a package of one of their young starters (maybe Canning or Barria), a middle infield prospect (Jeremiah Jackson), and someone like Ward or Thaiss for a higher end pitching prospect. Or possibly several trades of prospects for quality relievers.

Regardless, the Angels go into the offseason in a better position than they have in years. For one, the core is much better--the lineup is very good and potentially great, and they have a bunch of quality (and cheap) young starters. Furthermore, they have both more money to spend and more (somewhat) expendable prospects to trade from.

Meaning, it wouldn't be terribly difficult for Minasian to greatly bolster the team so that they go into 2022 as a legit contender, and possibly without trading away any of their better prospects.

 

Very well done, although I do believe we will have a bit more to work with than 45-50 million.  I do not see any major arbitration hit with what we currently have on the roster aside from Stassi (that will not be the case, however, in 2023).  I think we'll have 55-60 million to spend if we want to stay in the 180-190 million payroll range.   

I graded the trade a C.  I thought we got decent returns for both Heaney and Watson, but like another poster said in this thread it doesn't move the needle at all.  And as much as I wanted us to be sellers and was hoping to get a Jonathan Gray type prospect for Iglesias and or Cobb, I was probably not being realistic.  I do believe that both Iglesias and Cobb are now likely to extend with the Angels, and considering the holes we have to fill I am OK with that.  Now, if we do not re-sign Iglesias then I will be very critical of not moving him.  

But, on a side note, we have added 24 pitchers to our minor league clubs in the past month.  This convinces me how bad our pitching situation in the minors actually is/was.  Despite the emergence of Sandoval, Suarez, and Barria (not to mention Shohei), I still think we need one more #2-3 type of starter to truly be competitive in our division next year.  

I like Cobb a lot, and there is the option of trading him and then trying to resign him anyways (which wasn't listed or I would have traded him).  But, what another poster paraphrased above, Cobb will not get us to the promised land.  He is a solid #4 who is having a good year, but considering his injury history and up and down past, this success could literally turn on a dime.  If he has value and if we can pull a solid pitching prospect who projects as a #3 upside (floating around AA someplace), then I say we pull the trigger.  For me, we need as many pitching prospects as we can get.  I am fully on board trading away every asset we can this year for more talented close to MLB ready arms as we can get.  Because, as much as I am excited about Detmer, CRodriguez, and our new draft choices, we all know that every single one of them panning out is highly unlikely.  Just look how badly Canning has flamed out despite all this talent.  The reality is we need a lot more than what we currently have if we really want to compete.  And for me, this year is a loss.  I have to believe we can somehow muster 3 real quality starting pitching prospects (55 grades overall) by offering Adell, Iglesias (both of them), Cobb, Heaney, Bundy, and Adams to any combination of teams.   For me the biggest take away from this past draft was just how in shambles our minor league pitching situation is.  We can speculate all we want about taking 20 pitchers in 20 rounds (19 being from college).  But the biggest take away for me, was our minor league pitching situation is scary bad, so much so, our draft was historic just to try to rectify it.  

22 hours ago, Second Base said:

I'll include Adell and Rodriguez because in my mind, they're still both prospects. In my book...

1. Brandon Marsh - Borderline all star starting OF, good glove finalist. 

2. Reid Detmers - #2/3 SP. Workhorse.

3. Jo Adell - Bat first starting OF.

4. Chris Rodriguez - 5 inning/90 pitch SP that slots in as a #3/4 starter. 

5. Sam Bachman - Same as Rod, just with slightly better arsenal.

6. Jordyn Adams - Defense first starting OF. 

I like this list a lot.  I'd flip Bachman and Rodriguez, because I still have durability questions about Rodriguez.  He needs to finish with at least 80 innings this year for me to considering him anything beyond a future closer.  His stuff is absolutely electric, and he should spend the rest of the year stretching out.  We already know he can get it done against big league hitters (granted a small sample size, but for a kid his age is impressive), but can his body hold up?  I'd also replace Adams with Vera.  I know Adams is young, but I haven't seen much production this year.  Although, he did look impressive Spring.