eaterfan

Angels go on a nice run for the rest of June and July and claw back into the race. Maybe a nice 12 game win streak and lose just 5 games from here until the trade deadline. Arte and Dipoto decide the team is contender and trade Cowart and Lindsey for a pitcher. The team crashes back to reality in September and finishes 5 games out of the playoffs and 3rd in the division again. In the offseason the front office sees that we were only 5 games back and that means we're one FA and a few bullpen guys away from contention. We sign the best SP on the market and lose our first round pick again.

A couple buddies and I went out to Valiant Brewing on Saturday. I had never tried any of their beers before. Really enjoyed the Jericho Imperial IPA and Pathos Porter. The rest of the beers I tried ranged from meh to drinkable.

How did you like Churchill's? My cousin is the owner. I'm always curious what other people think about it.

You mean seasoning your iPad.

But Sig, if we trade Vargas, Frieri and Howie on the trading block what does it matter whether Aybar plays short or I play short? The team isn't making the playoffs either way. Might as well be worse and get a better draft pick and more importantly, more prospects who will contribute when the team is ready to compete.

1. You make an exception for a guy like Trout because he will be so young hitting FA, but even so a 10 year contract is really like offering him a 6 year deal since 4 of those are already club controlled. You aren't extending the time he's under contract by 10. 2. The A's model isn't a perfect analogy because they can't sustain success for as long as a high budget team like the Angels can. They can't resign their own players as easily. But they do make a good model in showing that you can take a step back and then two forward. It also shows how quickly a rebuild can take place. They made the playoffs in what, 2007 and rebuilt by 2012 without the resources we have? Now they may contend for the next 5 years. If we did that we could contend for a decade.

If we are counting on Hamilton and Pujols to be basically 10 wins better than this year I think we are in big big trouble. I'm even factoring in some improvement from this team and projecting them to win 80 games. Obviously adding another starter will help some but I don't see us getting a SP who is more than a 2 win improvement over whoever we trot out there now. Good FA pitchers are hard to come by. The guys are on the wrong side of 30. Hamilton hasn't even had his DL stint yet.

I wouldn't trade by that logic for 3 reasons: The goal is competing for a WS in 2016 and Trout will still be in his prime under club control. Goal number 2 is competing for the next 3-4 years after that. Trout will still be in his prime and if we can resign him will be a key contributor to this team. I love Howie but no matter what he won't be playing 2nd base for us in the 2019 season. Finally, Trout is a once in a generational talent that can't be replaced at nearly the same level. Trout can get through what I envision as the time it would take to weather a full rebuild and come out just as good on the other side. Kendrick can't.

Are we one anything away from anything changing? Just signing Vargas alone isn't even anything changing. If nothing is changing we aren't winning so we might as well try to get younger.

I think a lot of what has been done wrt the big contracts given out is more on Arte than Dipoto. It's also why I don't think a rebuild will take place. My question is when do you give up on this current group of players? If they win 80 games this year and 80 next? This team is on pace to win 71 games this season. Where do you see 20 wins of improvement next year or the next 3?

I agree that one isn't coming but that doesn't mean continuing to tread water is the right move. I don't think Arte will tolerate a total rebuild but I think until we undergo one we will never be in real contention. This team is going to have something around 100 million dollars tied up in Pujols, Hamilton, Wilson and Weaver during the 2016 season. There is no pitching coming through the pipeline and one position player in the top 100 prospects list. What are we going to do then?

I have given up on this group of players ever being good enough to contend for a championship. Howie will never have more value (and not just because of the year that he's having). Every day the value that the team trading for Howie gets drops. He gets older and they get less service time from him. As a result the prospects we get for him will be worse the longer we wait or further from the big leagues. I don't think Lindsey is the answer but it's time for a total rebuild. So instead of winning 85 games next season we win 60. It just means the same chance of winning the WS and we get a higher draft pick.

People talk about how young pitchers are the most prized commodity in baseball. But they are also the most risky. Teams trade them all the time. Are we going to get a Clayton Kershaw or Matt Harvey or Matt Moore type for Howie? No. But we can get a couple of guys in AA who are like Skaggs or Corbin. They might not be major contributors until 2016 but that's okay.

We'll probably be even better at it!

Howie is hitting .320 this year and they aren't. That's my point. I don't think the he will hit .260 because there is a lot of consistency with baseball and a decent amount of predictability. If this team was close or young and likely to improve I would say hold onto Howie. He's a great player and can be in a 3 year plan. I also don't think the Angels will improve 10+ games next season by trotting out the same team because there is a lot of consistency and predictability in baseball. Neither of the above scenarios is impossible but both are unlikely.

So Howie may hit .260 next year and be a bad long term asset?

Trade them both. Even with Vargas and one other pitcher this team isn't making the playoffs next year. Especially if we lose Howie. It's time to start giving up wins next year that don't mean anything for wins 3-4 years down the line that may get us into the playoffs.

Howie is only signed for 3 (or 4) more years. This team is on pace for 71 wins and getting older (presumably that means getting worse internally), has no farm system and is most likely close to its salary thresh hold. Maybe it's not but we've seen that adding free agents hasn't helped much. This team hasn't been terribly unlucky or injured this season. How do you (or anyone who thinks we should keep this team intact) think we are going to improve by 20+ games in the next three years to help us make the playoffs?

But even with his offense we aren't making the playoffs. Does it matter whether we finish 3rd in our division or 5th in the division? In order to improve this team we are going to have to upgrade our assets. The only way to do that is to give up something of value. Howie has a lot of it.

But what are we holding onto Howie for? To finish in 3rd place?

Trades are supposed to make both teams better. That doesn't mean immediately better. Take for example the Pau Gasol trade. The Lakers got immediately better but it took Memphis some time to capitalize on the trade. Now they are one of the best teams in the Western Conference.

Howie is my second favorite Angel. That said, trade him for the best prospects, pitching or not. Don't limit your market by only looking at pitching. The Angels can improve at every position except CF.

Greinke also had a more limited market. Teams knew he was going to cost about $20 million for 5 years. Teams that couldn't afford that weren't going to trade for him. Vargas could be signed by a much larger number of teams. Although that cuts both ways because potential trade partners will have more competition to sign him as a FA.

This team is on pace for 71 wins. Who can we sign in the offseason that will get us to 90 and a playoff spot.? Who can we sign to get us to 80 so if we catch a few breaks maybe we hit 90 wins and make the playoffs?

You left off Santana, Weaver, Morales, Kendrick, Aybar and Callaspo from that list. I could make the opposite argument and said trading prospects is killer. How much better would this team be with Segura, Skaggs, Corbin and Torres? I could also make the argument against trades with how many bad ones we've made: Greinke and Wells. And Free Agent signings, Pujols, Wilson, Hamilton, Madson.