Dave Saltzer

This is a really good pick! And, it should lead to us getting many more guys who fall a bit later k.

I nailed it! Very happy with this pick. We should be able to get several other players with over slot deals later on.

From the game a few days ago, so it's only gone up since then. Was talking to my cousin when this came on, and I sent him the picture. Agree that it's not just the quantity, but the quality.

Yes, I know, but it was a small sample size and the plate discipline was still there. But, that's why I won't be surprised if they go with Shaw who was the Cape Cod MVP as Perry seems to prefer success in the Cape Cod. Knowing how many wood bat leagues HS kids play in, I don't think it's so much of a metal/wood bat issue. What I'm more concerned about is that as far as I can tell that Nolan hasn't really ever been that far from home, up until the Cape Cod League. He played college very near where he grew up, so I don't know about his mental makeup and fortitude. This is one of the many reasons why scouting is so important. Even if he is a fast riser in an organization, he's still going to go to some really small towns in the midwest or south in any organization, and how will he take to that is a bit of a concern (compared to other players who went far away from home to play college). I'm sure that we've kicked the tires on both, and hopefully we will get the right and better player.

While speed is definitely coming back to the game, I don't see Perry spending a first round pick, especially at 11, on a player with no power. Pitching, such as Lowder and Dollander, I can see if available. Aside from them, a player with a lot more power is more likely, based on how Perry has constructed teams. Sure, a Juan Pierre would be great, but, there are a LOT more players with speed and no power who haven't become anything like that. On top of that, we have Jordyn Adams who was an 80-grade runner with more pop and Nelson Rada who is already burning it up at 17 years old at IE. While one always takes the BPA, we have guys who profile like Bradfield, Jr. (although Rada is not a true 80 grade runner), so if none of the top arms are available, I see the Angels taking a guy like Shaw or Schanuel (who I've been touting for quite a bit now) as more of a true potential difference maker.

@taylorblakeward Thank you for another great writeup. I'm looking forward to the draft and seeing how it all plays out!

Thank you. I still think if Dollander, Lowder, or Waldrep are there, I'd think we'd take one of them. Pitching is always at a premium. After that, I'm guessing Shaw or Schanuel.

Out of curiosity, how does your friend view Shaw and Schanuel? I'm still thinking that if Lowder and Dollander are available, one of them will be the pick. But, if it's a bit, those two should be high on the list.

I'm glad to see some others thinking this way. Drafting Schanuel (again, if Dollander, Lowder, or Waldrep are available, I'd take them over Schanuel) isn't about a position need: it's about drafting a left handed MOTO bat that we always need. And, it will allow us to do more in the draft in down rounds. I'm hopefully going to have some more to say on this if I'm feeling better and able to write an article in the next few days.

Regarding the litigation, depends on the jurisdiction, the laws designated in any contract, etc. But, there seems to be a prima facia case of discrimination, so this case seems destined for a settlement. I doubt MLB wants all sorts of things that may come out in the litigation, such as team revenues, etc.

First off, thanks for a good response. Appreciate it. Second, agreed a job isn't a birthright. Fully support that. Having said that, I am a big believer in institutional knowledge. When you think of how much work, effort, and money goes into producing 1 Major Leaguer, it is a staggering cost. I don't like seeing all the years of knowledge from good scouts, even if they are old scouts, being lost. With players generally making so much more today that they don't all need post playing careers, more institutional knowledge is being lost than I see being replaced. Teams really did cut scouting departments to the bone. The Angels were just relying on video in many cases (and they weren't the only ones) during Covid (or using Covid as an excuse). Many of those old timers have a lot more value from all the players that they've seen who either did or did not make it. I get that the game is changing, and how the game is produced has changed. However, I still believe that there is a lot of value that old time scouts bring, and that they should have a place in an organization. I know that if I had the billions to buy and run a franchise, I would easily and greatly increase my teams budget for scouting, analytics, and player development. Those are a few of the areas where Arte hadn't spent that I would.

Success with wood bat's, especially in the Cape Cod league is highly valued in the organization as well. If Lowder, Dollander, or Waldrep are available when we draft, I'd think we have to take one of them, especially as we've traded away some arms. All have big upsides (and Lowder has a good floor). If none are available, then I could see Shaw being the pick as he was the Cape Cod MVP. I have been thinking that an interesting idea may be on a bit of a polarizing figure, and that is Nolan Schanuel. Yes, he's a lower ranked prospect because of his defensive limitations (1B or corner OF at best), but I like his bat (even if his swing is much more of a Japanese style high arm position). A left handed MOTO bat is nothing to sneeze at, and with the savings (he should come way below slot), offer 1st round money to a HS arm who fell due to sign ability issues. Schanuel has a great hit tool with way more walks than Ks, has power (19 HRs to just 14 Ks and 71 BBs). His numbers were insane, although he did not do as well in the Cape Cod League (he still posted good BB:K numbers there, so the plate discipline is real. Schanuel could accelerate through our system (as could Shaw), so it's an interesting thought experiment to see if we could draft him and a HS player who fell. Still, I think if Lowder, Dollander, or Waldrep are available when we pick, I'd take one of them.

Gotta respectfully disagree with you here ALF. While I understand and appreciate your point of view, I'd like to suggest a different way to look at it. Analytics has a very important part of the game. And every ballclub has an analytics department. But, analytics only tells you part of the story. Analytics definitely can get more out of a player, but doesn't tell you anything about work ethic, desire, clubhouse chemistry, motivation, etc. It can help with projection (take a prospect like Nimmala who is rather polarizing based on whose projection you believe), but can't tell us everything in terms of drafting him or say Waldrep,Lowder,or Shaw. Scouting is what fills the void as to where analytics fails. Analytics and scouting are not in competition, or shouldn't be in competition with each other. The cost of 1 WAR is somewhere between $5.5 to $8 million/year (depending on who you want to believe, who the okayer is, and which team we are talking about). Using that number, teams could easily spend at least that much on their scouting and analytics department and as long as it generates 1 extra WAR, it should be worth as much as paying for 1 WAR in free agency. And, it doesn't have to be in improvements made: it can also be in talking a GM out of making a trade and saving 1 WAR. One of my main criticisms of Arte Moreno as an owner has been his efforts to skimp on scouting, player development, and yes, analytics. If I owned the team, or any team for that matter, I would double or triple the budgets for those departments to get the absolute most out of the talent I have. I want the best scouts, the best player development team, the best minor league facilities, and the best analytics. I might still make bad trades or drafts (all teams do st some point), but it won't be for lack of knowledge or effort. Over the years, I have interviewed enough players, talked with enough scouts, and taught enough high school students to know how much variance there is on the mental side that will affect a player's long term career. When you factor in how much a team spends per year just to develop 1 player who has a 5+ year career in the majors, the cost of paying scouts and having good scouts is a negligible cost. Think about how much money Eddie Bane made for Arte by picking Mike Trout--all the other teams who drafted before us missed out. I think the problem is viewing scouting and analytics as being in competition for budgets and having teams go cheap on them. They aren't and shouldn't be in competition. Instead, they should be seen as working together to deliver the best team on the field. To that end, yes, current scouts should know and understand analytics so that in team meetings they can understand what the analytics team is saying. But, to say that scouts over value their importance on the final product is a gross underestimate of the value they provide. Not only do scouts cover a lot of the mental component of the game for players, in an era of HIPPA, they also play a huge role on the physical side. Since teams can't release medical information without a player's consent, by watching all of the pregame activities, scouts can get a feel for a nagging injury that the analytics team might miss. Long story short: scouting and analytics are both incredibly necessary, shouldn't be seen as in competition, and the Angels should be spending a lot more on both (along with player development).

Yes, but catchers get hurt a LOT and have such an impact on the game with pitchers, controlling the running game, etc. It is absolutely worth it to keep Quero unless we are blown away by an offer, and not for rentals. I'm always open to listening to offers on anyone, but I'm not so interested in trading away a good piece for the future for a one year shot.

Of the two prospects that we gave up, I'm more saddened to lose Crow over Marceaux. My thought on Crow was that he would make a good 6th/7th inning guy whose heat could play up more in short bursts. Mostly 91-94, but could hit 95-96 and I thought in relief, he'd pitch mostly at that velo. I didn't think he'd get a long look here, as he is generously listed at 6'0" (my guess is closer to 5'10), and we have had a general bias against pitchers smaller than 6'0" going back to Scioscia (remember Steven Geltz?). He had 4 pitches, but could as a reliever could focus on his FB and SL while dropping an occasional change and curve. Marceaux I saw as a back end starter/up and down guy, or long reliever. Very low 90s heat, pitch to contact guy who has to be on his command. He has a strong competitive spirit and presence, so plays up a bit, with a good floor, but not a high ceiling. He should see time in the Majors, but I felt that Crow had the higher upside overall.

Looking at his splits for April, he hit .176/.315/.215 with 6 SBs. For May, he's really improved and has hit .340/467/.404 with 8 SBs. Yes, this was an aggressive placement for him, but, if he can continue reasonably well, I don't see any reason to send him down to AZ when that starts up. He's starting to adjust and looks less over matched, even though he's probably the youngest player in the league.

I saw him at IE and kept going back and forth about saying something about him. No tool really stood out, but he is young. I didn't get a good feel for projection. Routes were okay, but missed on one (he recovered to make the play). He kept getting burned on low offspeed pitches and didn't adjust. Again, he's 18. The pitcher against him was dominant and 4 years older than him. I was definitely more impressed with Rada, but had a note to give him a longer look when I get out there to see a few workouts.

Regarding Guzman, he was getting dominated by off speed stuff low and outside. He needs to adjust a bit to pick up those pitches. Defensivy, Guzman looked fine when I saw him.

I was out at IE with my boys over the weekend and would say the exact same thing. Rada's approach at the plate is advanced. He had a plan ND tried to implement it. One just has to realize that Rada can barely get into an R rated movie, so he needs to develop physically to fight off more pitches and to drive the ball well.

I am very much enjoying his game calling, and looking forward to having him here for many years (yes, it would be great to hear him call Trout's 500th HR). As rough and disappointing as the past few years have been on the field, it has felt even worse with the lack of stability in the broadcast booth. Having numerous different people there even during the season has made it all seem much more turbulent than it needed to be. Wayne brings a lot to the game, and I hope we finally have a new team with him and Gubi.

I am very much enjoying his game calling, and looking forward to having him here for many years (yes, it would be great to hear him call Trout's 500th HR). As rough and disappointing as the past few years have been on the field, it has felt even worse with the lack of stability in the broadcast booth. Having numerous different people there even during the season has made it all seem much more turbulent than it needed to be. Wayne brings a lot to the game, and I hope we finally have a new team with him and Gubi.

Submitted!

Done.

I'm working on getting an interview with him and some other IE players hopefully soon!

Really looking forward to listening to this! So glad we got our first episode done. Welcome back Victor!