ThisismineScios

...hence the problems we always run into with Arte. He is extremely controlling.

I thought about this today. They are more likely to go and get an Odorizzi/Paxton, but they suddenly look like a sneaky World Series pick if they can get a really good pitcher. And just because they don't normally sign top FAs doesn't mean they won't spend (Goldschmidt, Holiday).

Agree he is a part of the future, but I think he starts the year in the bullpen and Sandoval begins in AAA.

Disclaimer that I know nothing but speculating makes me feel better about this underwhelming offseason. I'd guess that Arte's edict to Perry went something along the lines of this: -No 9 figure deals this year and keep it around $190 million -Prefer no multi-year deals unless a great one comes into our laps -No major $ on RF because it's Adell or Marsh's job to win. -Next offseason when we clear Pujols, everyone else, and have 1 year of Upton left we can spend big -Save for a long-term SS next offseason (Baez, Seager, Story) -Can spend more on SP next year The Cobb move, I feel, wasn't a necessity but a clever way to add a 5th-6th starter for peanuts. I think they will make offers to Odorizzi, Paxton, and Walker. But ultimately they are counting on a good Ohtani year (a mistake I think), a step forward from Canning, and small improvements from Quintana and Cobb. They absolutely need another bullpen guy though, and the market is kind of evaporating for that.

I don't think the Dodgers will. They are going to pay Turner. And 0% chance he goes to Houston after feuding with all those guys over cheating. I think it's probably Toronto, the Mets, or SF. Mets have an offer on the table but he's likely holding out for more. Which is not how the market works this late. So he will probably end up taking the Mets offer.

I agree. I don't think they will trade Marsh, Adell, Detmers or Rodriguez. The farm just doesn't have enough pitching depth for them to give up their only two good pitching prospects. I think fans are jumping the gun a bit on Rodriguez being near the majors. He's finally healthy, but he hasn't pitched a full season of pro ball. He needs to pitch a full season in the minors before we can count on him for 2022.

Yeah that's what I had said in an earlier post. In terms of using them in a trade, you trade them at their peak prospect value. If you allow them to come to the majors, either they lose value (because they're bad) or they set the world on fire and you don't trade them because they help you win. I see it as this: Marsh: near his prospect peak, and therefore his peak trade value. If he doesn't get to the majors this year, and has a good year in the minors, maybe he jumps up in the Top 100. But he's floating around 30-50 on most lists. Adell: Probably near his low. He was a Top-5 prospect that came up and struggled. He's on the verge of being a starter, but he has lost some of his luster as a prospect. Adams: On the way up but still has not come close to his peak. Wouldn't necessarily make sense to trade him unless a team overvalues him.

Yeah, I didn't mean I thought that was something the Cubs would go for. It would clearly not be enough for both. But finding a team that loves Adams wouldn't be too hard. It doesn't make sense to hold on to blocked guys.

They have to trade him, Adell or Marsh. Trout is in the OF for 10 more years. The key is to trade the one you are ok letting go at the peak of his value. Marsh is near his peak prospect value now. Adell is probably at his near low. Adams? Some teams may see a future great CF. He’s a borderline Top-100 guy right now (made Baseball Prospectus list). I’d trade him, a really young guy, and Canning for Contreras and Hendricks.

I think them being mentioned as in on Hand, Soria, and Odorizzi is a sign they are at least still looking. It’s not like the Cobb move takes them out of that. If Perry is content with “decent”, by his own words, he will be asked about that all year. It may have been a poor word choice, but he is now accountable (if they do nothing) to tell the writers and fans that only decent pitching, with Trout and Rendon on your team, is ok.

I don't know much about Minasian yet, so I'm not claiming his brilliance. I was annoyed when this was first announced. As details have emerged, it's become clear how smart of a move it was. It's hard to oversell an average starting pitcher for ~ $3 million. It's also hard to undersell a prospect like Jones that has no clear path to help the team and who will likely see his value diminish in the next couple of years. I loved Jones for his work ethic and intangibles. Do you realize he's already 23? He's 6 months younger than Rengifo. Right now is likely his high water mark. And you can't possibly think they won't spend another dime this offseason. Of course they will, be it OF, Bullpen, or a starter.

Deferred money means it is most certainly not $5 million they are paying this year. If it's 3-1-1, 2-2-1, or even more spread out than that, there is really no reason for Perry to do it unless they are going to spend more money. Why do we suddenly think Arte gave Perry $10 and told him to buy dinner for the family? More and more we can see this was a shrewd move. I hated it at $15 million. I thought it was stupid at $6-7 million. At $5, I thought it was a decent move. At $5 deferred? It's really smart. A pitcher like Cobb is as good as any of the $3-5 million FAs out there. This was a depth move while he tries to get more. As for Jones... Yes, he was once a Top-100 prospect. So was Barreto. Yes he's a top 10 prospect. But his arrow isn't pointing up. We did well to find a team that liked him and get something out of it. But he's blocked. He has little value to Angels long-term. Does he play in the OF? Marsh, Adell, Trout, and Adams are all ahead of him. 2nd? Fletcher, Rengifo, Barreto are blocking him now with several young SS prospects likely moving to 2B long term. He's also not a true utility guy--he can't play SS, 3B, or 1st. Also, Perry just came from another front office. He knows the value of every other teams Top 10 prospects. Bringing in guys from 4-5 different teams only confirms this. If none of them valued Jones, they know his trade value is low. It's a really small loss for the right to SP $3 million this year that solidifies the back of the rotation. FINALLY...are we all forgetting that the Angels' problem the last 3 years has been the bottom of their rotation and the bullpen? If you take out Teheran and Suarez last year, the Angels rotation was above average. If you take out Cahill/Harvey 2 years ago, their rotation was at least average. Solidifying form the bottom up isn't sexy obviously, but it is how you begin to build consistency and give yourself the chance to win more games.

I don't think Jones had much value. He's blocked in the OF, Fletcher at 2B, and has lost his luster a bit. Perry has people from Atlanta, the Dodgers, Royals, and Brewers (and now Toronto) working in the FO with him. They clearly aren't very high on Jones' upside, and think he was expendable. If the Angels only gave up Jones and took a $3-5 million hit, it's worth it. I'd love to see this be the solidifying on the back end for them to sign another starter. But this would in theory allow them to trade Canning. Canning is controlled and unlike Barria, Sandoval, or Suarez has shown that he has real upside to be a #3. Him and Adell (plus a few others) could land Marquez or Castillo. Not saying they will but now they could trade Canning if the right team wanted him.