Inside Pitch

This is how stupid the Rendon stuff has become.

I meant overall... So wpa... It's the moat important data point

They habla-ed.... In ingles!

Adell is torching the ball... It was so stupid

Pinch hitting for the sake of pinch hitting....ffs

Has the autopsy been released yet or are they still no habla-ing ingles?

This post better get a lot of love.

100%! To be fair, that FG "Clutch" stat is a big reason why people think he's not good in those situations -- not because of the actual stat, but because the reality is he's always so good that people want him to be superhuman in those "clutch" situations. He's raised expectations so far where anything but awesome is viewed as failure. He's a dumbass basically.

His April has been crazy. He's putting up some career high numbers in batted ball categories, absolutely torching the ball but getting nothing to show for it. So you've got the people that read the triple slash stats asking whats wrong with him while anyone that's watched him play and actually gets it is asking what he has to do to buy a hit... While we are at it -- check out Miguel Sano People lumping him with Hicks are dolts.

It means he's been better at producing when it matters most (helping his team win) than anyone else in MLB since 2016.

Because they aren't measuring clutch at all they are measuring how good a guy is in leveraged situations compared to every other situation. So if you're always awesome, then their version of CLUTCH thinks you suck.. It's a poorly named statistic.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2016&season=2024&sortcol=2&sortdir=default&pagenum=1 Leads MLB in WPA.... WPL/LI (situational wins)

I think it's pretty safe he can do better than what he has on the table, even with a bad year. Half his 2025 salary is deferred until 2027, so unless he blows his arm out I'd expect he tests FA again. He's not getting any younger and long term deals offer the greatest amount of security for the player. Bellinger, the other guy people were rushing to lose a draft pick on is currently being outperformed by Rendon. He's actually seen some improvement in predictive data while seeing his actual results not be anywhere near what they were last year. Too early to come to any conclusions but that worrisome noise in the batted ball data from last year has been pretty loud early on. On the other side of the spectrum, I've seen people shitting all over Vlady Jr early on... If there is a poster boy for being on the wrong side of luck early on it's him.

Both times someone has brought him up this year he's gone on to shit the bed in his start. Two starts, 7 IP total. Not sure I get why anyone is still acting like the Angels missed out on something. Unless he gets hurt he'll be available again this winter with no draft compensation.

But does he care yet? Is he trying hard enough?

I have no idea what you think a number three is, but historically speaking, a number three is a 100-105 ERA+ pitcher that gets innings. Nobody seems to get innings anymore, so if he was at 109 last year, he's right there.. Here's another way to look at it -- a three would be among the top 90 pitchers in MLB, right? 2023 ranks fWAR: 52nd (so, a two) ERA: 62 (so a three) IP: 64 (so a three) Fact is he was a bit lucky last year. His ERA was better than his predictive data, so far this year it's been the other way around. The common issue is he's got early John Lackey mental issues.

So much "no habla ingles" this year from the Angels.

I saw that, I also looked at the expected averages in the game-log at baseball-savant -- I didn't watch the game but there were some really wild variances on the expected outcomes. He seemed to get lucky and unlucky at the same time -- but the FB was getting hit hard pretty much by everyone, so that seems to be an issue regardless. \

A 3.90 ERA translates to 111 ERA+. His FIP 2.71 and xFIP 4.39 are both significantly better than his ERA this year, dude needs to get over his Mike Witt BS and keep his head on straight when adversity hits because other than his FB still getting torqued he's had success with everything else.

They really should have Canning snub his toe on a table or diagnose him with "fatigue" so they can IL him and monitor his velocity in a controlled environment then roll him back out there. He has a history of struggling with his velocity early in the year and sucking ass.

Canning has a history of being bad out of the gate and his FB velocity is down. Maybe it's a dead arm thing, maybe he's not 100% but my guess is if the velocity normalizes he goes back to pitching well. Months -- Game-Level I Split W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP SO9 SO/W April/March 2 3 .400 6.70 10 9 0 0 0 0 44.1 46 33 33 13 15 0 44 2 0 3 192 1.376 8.9 2.93 May 8 4 .667 3.83 15 15 0 0 0 0 80.0 68 35 34 14 30 0 80 2 0 5 337 1.225 9.0 2.67 June 4 5 .444 4.02 14 14 0 0 0 0 78.1 66 37 35 13 20 0 78 7 1 1 323 1.098 9.0 3.90 July 1 4 .200 7.75 10 9 1 0 0 0 38.1 50 33 33 9 20 0 50 1 0 7 186 1.826 11.7 2.50 August 2 2 .500 3.70 11 9 0 0 0 0 56.0 55 26 23 8 18 1 52 3 0 2 234 1.304 8.4 2.89 Sept/Oct 2 4 .333 4.04 9 9 0 0 0 0 49.0 47 23 22 5 18 0 55 1 0 3 209 1.327 10.1 3.06 Looks like he shits the bed for a month then does well for a couple months before repeating the cycle.

The more things change the more they stay the same. Beyond the gambling drama, it's nice to see someone else having the TEAM's outcome be a footnote to Ohtani's personal achievements. That shit got dull very quickly.

There's an AW.com league? You bastards!

It's too early to say with any real certainty. Right now the pitching staff is probably good enough to be competitive 4 out of 7 days a week, so like 3 out of 5/6 games. I have ZERO faith in guys like Luis Garcia -- that move made no sense to me when guys like Ryne Stanek were available for pennies -- I get the fascination with velocity but that guy has been mediocre a long time. Detmers isn't going to stay where he is -- neither is Anderson. Thing is, Canning is notoriously bad in April so, he likely goes the other way. Sandoval needs to go see Mike Witt's hypnotist but his predictive data is much much better than his ERA. Silseth will continue to be a twice through the lineup then pray guy until he gets another offering to switch things up with -- he's a work in progress. I didn't see the game yesterday, looks like Soriano had some adventures in the first but otherwise pitched well. Silseth/Soriano gives them hope they find a serviceable 5th SP. I have more concerns about the offense to be honest, simply because they have pitchers in the minors I like and who I believe likely outperform some of the guys on currently at the MLB level. I can't say the same about the hitters down there -- but it's early and the weather has been pretty ugly.

Yep. No team is going to lose the reigning MVP, replace him with two guys picked up off the discard pile and "be better." Actually "playing better" on the other hand IS possible.