HBAngel13

What’s the updated difference between luxury tax threshold and current payroll? $70m?

We need to have some thick skin this offseason and take all the Angels/Arte hit pieces that will surely come. Some will be deserved. Be smart here Perry… Just like when you talked Arte out of signing Trea Turner. Spread the money around. Keep raising the floor on the roster. Don’t cripple your flexibility with the wrong deal If we get back to contending and winning, all the pain goes away. We aren’t that far away. Probably not this year unless everything goes right, but 2025 could be interesting.

Pretty much resigned myself that we were in a lose-lose situation with Ohtani at least for now. It’s painful for him to leave but would have been more painful to have another decade like the 2010’s Yes this stinks, but we now actually have a path to being good even if Moreno keeps the team. Another mega-deal, especially something even remotely close to $700m would have severely diminished our chances of having a complete roster for the next 10 years. Good for Ohtani. He got his money and should have a great chance to win in his prime years. He is definitely a class act. However, we got his best years and it was a blast to watch him. Now let’s get back to being perennial contenders. First bullet dodged. Now we just have to dodge a silly rebound signing.

One of Perry’s strongest qualities is his quick pivots from missteps. Love it!

IF we resign Ohtani, I would give him an opt out after year 3. I would also front load the contract to pay him enough in those three years so it essentially guarantees he opts out, even if he is only a hitter at that point. This gives the Angels a 3-yr window to make it work. If it doesn’t, he opts out and Rendons contract finishes at the same time, giving the team a chance to retool quickly.

100% this. Player opting out almost guarantees the team got a fair value deal. With these mega deals, I think it’s better to lose any player 1-2 years early than to be stuck with him 5 years beyond the freshness date.

For some context, Fletcher had 3.1 fWAR in 2019 with 4+ years of control. He probably doesn’t bring back an ace given the type of player he is but I think he could have been a centerpiece in a larger package. Fletcher aside, I think we are pulling in a similar direction. Ward is definitely a guy I would look to cash in, especially with Adell waiting in the wings with much higher upside. Naturally Wards injury puts a huge monkey wrench in that idea. For the ultimate in irony, how about Ward for Manoah? Would be in Blue Jays favor per the simulator.

I think we all see the potential in Sandoval as does the league. If he does stay with the club, I am hoping that the new coaching staff can get him to the next level. My fear is that he repeats 2023 or is only slightly better. That doesn’t really move the needle for 2024 halos and his trade value will drop considerably. I would prefer to cash him in now. Angels have not been good at managing tradeable assets and selling high. Fletcher is a prime example. He could have netted us some pitching after his breakout but instead we give him an extension. Now he has turned into a pumpkin.

I like Montas a lot. He is another guy we should be looking at if he isn’t damaged goods.

Sandoval has a ton of value due to his control despite his erratic performance. If he could net you a solid 6-yr position player + maybe a arm that could slot into the bullpen down the road, that adds a lot of organizational value and you still have multiple options to buy Sandovals performance on the open market. I want to see this team get better for the long haul. They can do that without sacrificing the present if they cash in some of the Sandoval/Canning/Renigfo/Ward group and backfill with good FA signings.

I like this thinking. We need to use our one competitive advantage (money) to fill holes. Darvish likely wouldn’t cost us any of our young core if we take all the money. He is as likely as the discussed rentals to put up solid numbers This move would make it more palatable to trade Sandoval. I agree with @Inside Pitch that trading Sandoval for a rental is not a good use of his value. Send him to Baltimore instead for one of their young position players and buy the pitching on the open market. Going back to our Blake Snell discussion, I would rather buy him then part with one of our few trade chips for a rental. I like Yamamoto, Bauer and Flaherty as FA targets I’m on record as a Perry fan, but if he moves Neto/o Hoppe/Schanuel/Silseth for any of the rentals, my opinion is going to change real quick.

Invest in Yamamoto Take a hard look at Trevor Bauer. Thinking a 1 yr deal + club option Sign Flaherty Trade Sandoval for one of the Orioles MLB ready position players (Cowser, Kjerstad or Mayo) plus maybe a couple lower level arms Sign JD Martinez, Rhys Hoskins or Soler as DH. Probably need another infielder for depth (obviously they would need to play 3B). Give Renigfo an everyday job from day one and see if he breaks out.

There is some sense there for both teams. Money is almost even, but Rendon contract ends one year sooner. Stanton has a lower luxury tax number. Since they are both woeful the last couple years, the fact that Stanton actually plays could be viewed as a detriment.

They would just have to eat Rendons contract in return.

I am really not in favor of a $500m contract to anyone and would prefer if they passed. Still, it will be exciting if he resigns, especially if Arte changes his stance on the luxury tax.

Deep end = Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers territory. Consistently in top 4-6. A lot of this discussion has been about signing multiple free agents to make us better. Going to be tough to get the impact guys without bumping over the tax threshold. Seems like a given if they bring back Ohtani

I basically agree with your sentiments. Moreno has the ability and capacity to swim in the deep end, but he has always stuck to his preset budget. We have seen this since the beginning of his ownership, so until he deviates I will count myself as skeptical. All the waiver wire maneuvering last year (which I thought was shrewd despite the optics) tells me that the luxury tax is still an impediment. The “I will exceed the luxury tax” quote has got to be around 10 yrs old at this point. I’m not sure that sentiment still applies?

Very well said. The club has many needs so they need to be shrewd with their dollars so they aren’t bottlenecked like they were in the 2010’s. That’s my main contention. Personally I don’t think they are ready for prime time in 2024 unless they make multiple high impact moves. I just don’t think they have the payroll room to fill all the holes. 2025 is the year I think they could really surprise if the young guys have a solid development curve. I want to see this team get back to perennial contention vs pushing hard for the current season at the expense of the future.

I did read what you wrote and understand your point - I just don’t agree. My contention with Snell is that the risk isn’t worth the reward in my estimation for the exact reasons @Inside Pitch and @totdprods expounded on. Naturally I am in favor of free agents, but one has to be smart about it and big deals have to be evaluated in the context of the current payroll construction. We already have two mega-deals on the books. If both those guys continue to be sidelined, we are essentially working with a $150M payroll to field an entire team. Throw Ohtani in there and now you have $100M to work with. That said I would consider guys like Soto and Yamamoto to be “safer” than someone like Snell due to age and their ceiling. Snell has had some good years but we know what his ceiling is. Snell is good, sometimes very good, but he isn’t elite year in and year out. I would prefer they spend the 7/200 MLB trade rumors pegged him for elsewhere. If you see it differently, totally cool.

I submit the following as Exhibit A: Pujols Hamilton Wells Upton Cozart Rendon Thats a murderers row of futility. It obviously hampered the club from making other moves to improve.

I don’t think it’s the AAV as much as the contract length. He would be great on a 3-4 yr deal.

Any $200m contract is a huge risk. Fair point on Yamamoto, but I am more comfortable investing big in a 25-yr old than a 30-yr old Snell. We are paying for what’s to come, not what’s already happened. Plus Yamamoto would likely bring in additional revenue and attention a la Ohtani. Blake Snell is a good pitcher that can be great. I just don’t think his future performance will justify the commitment. He isn’t prime Verlander or Scherzer. If we could get Snell at 4/100 then absolutely. But we know that isn’t happening.

I’m thinking over the life of the contract. Snell has had a couple great seasons for sure and he would likely be a big boost for 2024, but he isn’t a perennial TOR guy for me. MLB Trade Rumors had him at 7/200. I don’t think he is worth that and we can’t afford another albatross.

If you could pull that off and swap Snell with Yamamoto… I like the thinking, but I question our ability to pull off two trades of that caliber.

Undervaluing? Maybe strictly in baseball terms, but certainly not in economics. I’m not saying he isn’t a good pitcher, I just don’t think his profile is worth the contract he will likely demand. Feels like maximum risk for medium reward.