tntoriole

1 minute ago, ettin said:

Yes, agreed (I considered Cobb as a possible bad swap for Cozart in the Primer Series I write for this site), but the O's will have to take care of that deferred money still. That is a lot of money that another team will not want to take responsibility for. I think the O's may have to try and restructure that deal and pay him off at the end of his deal or promise to take it all on in trade.... something like that, that deferred money for Davis and Cobb will haunt them in their rebuild effort.

There is a definite segment of Orioles insiders who believe that the team is being prepared for sale when the old man passes.  We shall see. 

3 minutes ago, ettin said:

Go look at Cobb's deal too. $20M deferred over something like 10 years too. They thought their window was going to last longer than it did.

Cobb may yet be flippable if he can go out and pitch this year.  Davis not.  In fairness, everyone else is gone...Jones, Wieters, Machado, Schoop, etc. etc.  And those are the only two deals remaining of any sort as we are down to about 60 million Opening Day payroll estimate - Davis and Cobb make up 60 percent of that.  But both of those will limely be jettisoned sometime this year.  

14 minutes ago, Lou said:

holy crap. the O's will be paying Davis $42M (deferred) from 2023-2037

Yes, Scott Boras is a genius and Peter Angelos yet again ignored his own GM.  He paid Albert Belle for years on deferred deal too. Dan Duquette was against the deal by all accounts but Brady Anderson was very influential with the old man about Davis (and other dumb choices).  One of the true signs of the old man not  being actively in charge any longer due to his health was Brady getting kicked out of the organization.   

18 minutes ago, Lou said:

neither does 2014

I was just responding to the post that noted there were 14 losing years from 1998-2011, and then said it is going to thus take 5-6 years to rebuild.  But I certainly agree with you. Rebuilds are rebuilds.  Past is past.  Particularly with new GM, new de fact ownership from Angelos sons.  And losing teams like Astros, Twins, etc have turned around very quickly if they draft and trade correctly.    

But the winning in 2014 did affect the current rebuild in one very negative way..it convinced old man Angelos that Chris Davis was a superstar and led him to go against his own GM, bid against himself and give out the worst contract in baseball history in 2016 which is still an albatross, though I think they will eventually DFA Davis sometime this year and eat the rest of his deal.    

Actually I am probably pretty close to the same kind of Orioles fan as Lewis....he is hilarious though and most all of us can enjoy beating the MFYs...lol. 

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

14 years from 1998 to 2011 where the O's finished 3rd once and never over .500.  You are overestimating the O's ability to contend by 3-4 years at least.  I'm guessing it will be 5-6 before they have a season above .500 again.  

Perhaps...but those 14 years really have no relevance to this rebuild.   Most teams outside perhaps of the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers are going to have years of being not very competitive followed by a few years of winning.  See Astros, Rays, Twins, Tigers etc...The days of dynasties like my Orioles teams of the late 1960s and through much of the 1970s are pretty much over. 
Peter Angelos is infirm and no longer involved at all in the running of the organization..his sons are quite different in style and decision making thus far.  Hopefully Elias and company will do better than 5-6 years, but you could be right, sure. 

2 hours ago, Lou said:

In 2014, NY only won 84 games and Boston 71.  That isn't happening again. There is no way in hell you're winning the division in 2022.

My favorite part of your prediction, however, is that in 2021 you're going to win either 62 or 81 games. 

 

I intended to say likely last place in 2020, .500 in 2021 and division in 2022.   Sorry for the confusion.  Enjoy your season!  No offense meant. Probably overly optimistic.  Having seen 5 World Series teams in my life is good enough, but we can hope. 

15 hours ago, ScottT said:

Good luck with that

We shall see.  No guarantees in baseball, that's for sure.  

10 hours ago, Lou said:

 

so let me get this straight: 

2020 - 100 losses

2021 - either 100 losses or a .500 record.

2022 - AL East Champs.

 

yeah, I can see that happening.....

Don't watch the AL East much do you?  2011- Orioles were 69-93 last place.   2012- 93-69 playoffs  2014 AL East Champions by 12 games 96-66...  let's come back and look at this in 2022 and we will see who is correct.  

18 hours ago, ScottT said:

I don't blame Orioles fans for being defeated instead of angry and cursing.  They've had a brutal couple of decades.   Fourteen seasons in a row under .500.   4th or 5th place in thirteen of those seasons.   At least 20 games out in thirteen of those seasons. 

Then, 2012...  93 wins... because they somehow won every close game.  They improved in 2013, but won 8 fewer games.    They were legitimately good in 2014, for the first time in 17 years.   They've had one winning season since, and the last three have been ugly.   

How does their farm system rank?   Did it move at all today?  I get the trade from their end, but yikes.   They fucking suck. 

Actually from 2012 through 2016 the Orioles won more games than any team in the AL.   Yes it was a long down period prior to that time, but, someone like me went to his first Orioles game in 1965  and was lucky enough to have many years where the Orioles were the best team in baseball and I have attended all five World Series that have been played in Baltimore (significantly more than some organizations, one might add).    But baseball runs in cycles and we are in a rebuild.  We believe that Mike Elias/Sig Mejdal have already made substantial progress in many areas including the hires of Koby Perez away from Cleveland to lead the international scouting division and the recent hire of Eve Rosenbaum from Houston as director of baseball development and Chris Holt last winter as organization pitching developmental director.    Elias was heavily involved in the drafting and scouting process both with St. Louis and Houston and the farm system has already made substantive progress....  Farm rankings are notoriously variable but a Fangraphs recent analysis had the Orioles system ranked 10th overall in MLB ( a substantial improvement from 2017 when it was 27th).   Picking number one Adley Rutschman helps with that but the pitching prospects at A and AA levels in our system have made marked improvement in the last year.     We will have the 2nd, 31st (competitive balance pick) and 40th picks in this year's draft and given the likelihood of being at the bottom again in 2020, we will likely again have high picks in the 2021 draft.   Look for the 2021 season to have us hit .500 and in 2022 to be at the top of the AL East and then in playoff competition for some years to come...(if the Houston type rebuild works as planned...lol).  

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100