marcosantinia12

I predict the Cubs will make a huge splash, and sign BOTH Grienke and Price

More than half a billion $ in salary committed to 3 starters. That would be some serious s*** lol. But wow, they would hold the best starting rotation all-time possibly, with an already strong offense. If they win 1 WS and break the curse, its worth every penny IMO.   

Price - cubs

Greinke - Dodgers

Cespedes - Angels

Upton - Mariners

Zobrist - Yankees

Davis - Cardinals

Cueto - Boston

Heyward - Nationals

Zimmerman - Giants

Honorable mentions:
 

Price - Dodgers

Greinke - Giants

Cespedes - Rangers

Upton - Yankees

Zobrist - Dodgers

Davis - Giants

Cueto - Dbacks

Heyward - Oakland

Zimmerman - Cubs

Personally, I don't see a huge market for the big name outfielders. I'd guess the only teams ready to go $100+ mil are the Angels, Yankees, and possibly the Dodgers, Giants, Nats and White Sox. Not that many teams, really.

I've been thinking about this as well. What teams that have the money are in need of an outfielder? You would figure that we are definitely favorites to pick up one of the 3 OFers (I'll throw Gordon in there as well). I just really, really hope its Heyward/Upton. 

EDIT: And on top of that, the teams that I could potentially see shelling out the money are looking into other options, primarily at the pitching market (Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, Red Sox). I don't now if the Cardinals are the type to re-sign Heyward, they seem to stay away from large contracts. And even IF they were open to the idea, they seem more interested bringing a starter as well or maybe Davis. 

The problem as i see it, its not just that the 16 team has holes, and we have no in house fixes. Its that the 17 and 18 teams look to be the same, with an ever older pujols. Maybe cron and calhoun progress and make up the gap? Dont know. But i do know that the free agent class next year isnt as deep, and that if we get gunshy we are going to regret it...big time

This is exactly it. Normally, I like a club to be to be conservative and chase Aoki types, with an occasional 2nd tier signing. The difference here is that there is NOBODY coming up from the farm. With the FA classes getting weaker after this year, and more expensive due to the lack of supply to fit its demand, there is no better time to open up our pockets. If we don't get a premier position player and chase Aoki/Cabrera types then that's fine so long as we get a premier starter. 

I was thinking more along the lines of Prado or Neil Walker, both of whom are said to be a lock to be traded this winter. I'm figuring Santiago or Shoe, plus Bedrosian and a lower prospect would work.

I like this scenario. I think Heyward is the best overall fit for the team, but if we can pick up a table setter at 2nd base (Walker and Prado fit the mold perfectly) Upton is a nice option. Priority is an OBP 1-2 batter. That dictates the rest. Whether its Heyward or a 2B/3B.

Lots of folks are all hot and bothered because water is being poured on their offseason fixation of Heyward, who is good but not that good. Fletch is right, a large majority of Heytward's value is inherent from his defense and youth. But the Angels already have a GG RF and are bring constructed to win now and across the next 4 years. The Angels need offense, a LF in particular and someone that'll help across a shorter expanse of time, which while Heyward covers that, you'd be overpaying for something that is not the perfect puzzle piece.

Now Upton or Cespedes on the other hand, do seem to be a better fit. They're both a better offensive weapon, both would slot quite well in LF and wouldn't require moving Kole, both will be quite good across the next 4 years. Now what seperates these two is...

1. Cespedes has the greater offensive potential, but also comes with considerable bust potential.

2. Cespedes comes without sacrificing a draft pick.

3. Upton is two years younger than Cespedes.

4. Upton is more of a constant. You know you're getting 30-40 DB 25-35 HR 10-20 SB. No more, no less.

Personally, I think the lack of draft pick compensation is going to raise Cespedes' price by about 15 million dollars, to the point where he won't really be any more or less expensive than Upton, so the Angels will grab the younger guarantee in Upton.

As for the rest of what they do, other than a new 2B, I really have no feeling whatsoever. They may or may not get a 3B. Same with starter and reliever.

I don't agree with that. He's by no means a superstar, but I think you are undervaluing him. He was the 11th most valuable position player (by WAR) in the Majors in 2015 according to fangraphs. 6th in the NL (or 7 if you count Cespedes' 2 months).

Just to break it down:

Heyward:

2015: 6.0

Last 3 years: 14.6

----------------------

Cespedes:

2015: 6.7

Last 3 years: 12.4

----------------------

Upton:

2015: 3.6

Last 3 years: 10.6

You're right that a lot of his value comes from his defense...  but it is value nonetheless. He's not as good as Upton and Cespedes offensively (yet), but his overall games has him as the better all-around player in the past few year. The reason I mention "yet" by the way, doesn't imply that I think he will be the .291/35HR/105RBI monster that Cespedes was this year, but I think he has a legit possibility to keep up or even out produce the other two in the span of the next 5 years. I have mentioned it before... let's not compare them side by side, lets compare them at Heyward 26-31, Upton 28-33, or Cespedes 30-35.

I feel like Cespedes had his best season last year and is at his peak value. I see him as a .270/.310/.480 25-30HR hitter going forward. .790 OPS hitter

Upton maybe .275/.350/.470 and if he digs in to his power in the peak of his physical prime 30-35HR. .820 OPS hitter

Hewyard, I think is a good bet for .275/.360/.440 with 18-20HR. .800 OPS hitter. On top of that he will have 15-20 SB and elite defense.

For me, I'd strongly prefer not to touch Cespedes. He will get paid for this year's performance, which I think is his peak in value. He's also the older of the three and can see him regress slowly. I'd personally take either of Upton or Heyward. I lean towards Heyward because of his youth and the potential for him to get better, either would be great. I think it just depends on what other moves we make this offeason as well as obviously seeing which of the two players is more attainable in terms of other teams looking to outbit us. 

Interesting order, I am really curious to know how the Angels are prioritizing starting pitching. You gotta think they know the team needs another front of the rotation guy, right? I would be okay if they were "thrifty" and sneaky in filling all the other holes if it meant signing an ace. 

Yeah, that's another possible rout. Something like

LF - Aoki/Span

RP - Sipp

2B - Cabrera

3B - Trade (Makes even more sense to trade a pitcher if we are picking one up)

Bench - Morneau/Utley + trade for a speedy defensive OFer like Gore/Dyson

SP - ACE

EDIT: I'd love one more RP though, via trade or FA

How I prioritize it:

LF

Pen

Starter

2nd base

Strong versatile bench

3rd base

Catcher

I have

LF

Pen

2B/3B

Starter

Bench

Catcher

Pretty similar, but a couple things flipped. I see 2nd and 3rd pretty equal in terms of priority. I think it boils down to how much each return improves the team. For example, I'd rather have Prado/Escobar at third with Gio at 2nd over Cowart/Kubitza at 3rd and Asdrubal Cabrera at 2nd. But I'd rather have Cowart/Kubitza at third with Kinsler at 2nd over the Prado/Escobar-Gio combo. Ideally, we can get something along the lines of Prado/Cabrera, Escobar/Hernandez, or if we want to to spend in FA maybe Prado/Kendrick or Zobrist. 

I think the value of something like Prado/Kendrick or Zobrist over Cowart(or Kubitza)/Gio is super underrated. Regardless if we got a big OFer, that lineup and defense would be substantially stronger than 2015's. 

Enrique Hernandez is an FA, and i don't think he is demanding huge dollars

Solid player with the glove at second base, and his hitting is trending upwards

I thought he was under Dodger's control?

Yeah, i think panik would be a long shot aswell. Its a reason why i mention that the giants may be open to talking about Kelby Tomlinson. He seems to match what we should be looking for in a player, only problem is his lack of a track record and he could very easily become a mediocre or below average player.

And sorry, i meant to ask what it would take to get kinsler not kendrick haha. Any match at all?

This board undervalues Santiago.

Not necessarily undervalue him but we can afford to move a starter due to our surplus of options. Not saying they are the best options, but we definitely arent going to trot out an 8 man rotation. It would be counter productive to move any of our young guys, which leaves us with 4 options in Weaver, Shoemaker, Wilson, and Santiago.

Weaver wouldnt be traded even if the angels wanted to so lets scratch him. Shoemaker could be traded but i think what he could net us is relatively low to the value he adds to us in the depth department. This leaves us with 2 possible trade pieces in WIlson and Santiago. Ideally we keep CJ because he's one of our only guys that can eat up innings which is why Santiago looks like the best trade option. I personally wouldn't be opposed to trading Wilson for the right piece/s though, especially because we are able to shed some salary.

Kinsler's my top choice at second. Perez, Simmons, Kinsler, and Trout up the middle, my goodness. Re-sign Freese and sign Span, Aoki, or one of the Korean bats?

The defense would be so sexy, not to mention the GG caliber gloves on both sides of the middle aswell with Calhoun and Cowart if we end up rolling with him and Kubitza.

Aoki sounds good if we decide to go the cheap route, I would personally pass on Freese though. I feel like we've seen the best of him. I think Wilson/Santiago nets us better options and if not, i can live with gold glove defense from cowart with a platoon partner of Kubitza. Not ideal, but I'd rather allocate the money for Freese on something else like a high-end OFer, a Fister type, or a lock down arm.

2 great posts Dochalo. There are honestly some pretty good options that we have to consider for 2nd or 3rd base. I think LF definitely comes from FA seeing the many options we have there.

What would you propose for a Kendrick trade? ALso do you think Giants would let go of Panik? Maybe in a deal involving Wilson?

Would you guys be against trading CJ Wilson and 10 mil of his salary for Kelby Tomlinson + Strictland? We get a 25 year old 2ndbasemen controlled long term for league minimum, plus a young, stud reliever - with a power arm at that. I don't know if the Giants do this, but it has to sound appealing to get CJ's caliber for 10 million. They don't have much room for Tomlinson either and the sting of losing Strickland will fade when they get the draft pick that will be attatched to Wilson next off-season. This gives them a chance to get both Wilson at a cheap price, plus a top arm (Greinke, Price, Cueto, etc.).

There are too many actual pressing needs to be obsessing about 2nd base. The Angels actually have a warm body with MLB experience at a minimum salary in that position while they have nothing in left field or third base. So in effect you are worrying about if you're wearing matching socks while on the emergency room table.

That's reasonable. Just looking at areas of potential growth though.

After we get someone for the 1 or 2 sport in the rotation first! If weaver doesn't show up, Skaggs or Shoe can step up and rotate between the 4/5 slots. My go too Rotation would be something similar too this..... (Depending on future trades)

 

1. Richards

2. Zimmermann

3. Heaney

4. Weaver

5. Tropeano

How about buying low on Fister?

1.Richards

2.Wilson

3.Fister

4.Heaney

5.Tropeano/Weaver/Skaggs (when ready)/Shoemaker

Edit: 

This is assuming we trade Santiago.

Alright guys, what are some possible legitimate 2B options in the trade market?

This is a broad list based on guys who I think could have a strong impact on the lineup:

Ian Kinsler 
Brock Holt
Yunel Escobar
Martin Prado
Neil Walker
Brandon Phillips
Enrique Hernandez
Kelby Tomlinson

Just wondering, who from that list can we actually acquire or would be the best fit? The last two are really interesting options but I don't know if we could acquire them in any way. Tomlinson in particular makes sense with him being blocked by Crawford and Panik. 

From the list though, I personally would really like Holt or Kinsler (our mid infield would be so sick). Any type of package we can make for them? We've obviously talked about Prado and Walker with Santiago centering a deal for them. Escobar is also intriguing, not really for his glove, but that OBP would shine in front of Trout. Phillips also wouldn't be a bad option, so long as we don't have to eat his entire salary.

I don't want to turn this into another OF thread, but I've been opening up to the idea of getting Upton instead of Heyward if we could pick up a strong presence for 2nd base. Maybe a Kinsler, Escobar, or Phillips. This gives us the 1-2 hole guy that Heyward would be, plus the big bat that would deepen the lineup.

Something like:

1. Kinsler
2. Calhoun
3. Trout
4. Upton
5. Pujols
6. Cron
7. Perez
8. Simmons
9. Cowart/Kubitza

Or

1. Heyward
2. Holt/Walker
3. Trout
4. Pujols
5. Calhoun
6. Cron
7. Perez
8. Simmons
9. Cowart/ Kubitza


 

Hamilton 2.0 ?

Ok, in all honesty I'd love to get Puig. I think playing alongside Pujols and Trout would fix him up a bit. Can't even think of a package that would even get the Dodgs to pick up the phone for though.

That would be a terrible trade for the Angels, seeing as Kubitza has a high likelihood of being as good as or better than Solarte in the next year or two.

Just don't get the hype with Kubitza. Guy that K'd a ton in the minors and had his numbers inflated by an unsustainable BABIP. 

This. We know about his high OBP, but I am curious as to what that translates to in the Majors with those K problems, and like Nikka mentioned - the drastic BABIP. Not to mention he has to transition from Salt Lake to Anaheim. Solarte is by no means is a solidified player at third, but he has proved to show success in two seasons of substantial playing time... in both leagues, and in two very different environments (parks, team, etc). 

I don't know, but having a more proven player in Solarte gives me more comfort in our 3B situation. Thats not to beat up on Kubitza, I've mentioned that I wouldn't mind starting the season with him and Cowart at third and am interested to see what they can do. But if the area can be improved without giving up substantial pieces, why not?

Solarte and Spangenberg would both be a good fit on this team. The only issue really is that the Padres are in the midst of a reload, meaning they're acquiring high end talent that should make an impact in the next couple years. The Angels really don't have much there they can help with. We shouldn't trade anyone like Tropeano or Skaggs, the Padres wouldn't be interested in Santiago or Shoemaker, and Bedrosian and Hinshaw don't really carry enough value.

Do you think Hinshaw, Bedrosian, Kubitza does it? 

Just a quick note in terms of Trout's clutch-ness last season:

 

2 outs, RISP:     .927 OPS

Late and Close: .928 OPS

Tie Game:         .939 OPS

Within 1 run:      .997 OPS

Within 2 runs:   1.017 OPS

Within 3 runs:   1.012 OPS

Within 4 runs:     .990 OPS

Ahead:              1.014 OPS

Behind:             1.024 OPS

High Leverage: 1.125 OPS

 

If Trout's team win's another game and the Angels just make the 1-game Wild Card playoff, he wins the MVP. 

Very interesting stats.

I went by these numbers resented by Fangraphs:

Donaldson

Clutch : -.06

Win Probability :6.28

Trout

Clutch : -0.38

Win Probability : 6.19

I'll admit though, I am not entirely sure aware of how these values are fully calculated and what exactly they take into account. I'm sure they take into account the situational stats that you provided, although I don't know how much they weight each category. Nonetheless, hard to argue could have done better. Tout was the best player in baseball, unfortunately his efforts didn't play out in the spotlight of a wining team. 

i was looking over a padres move made on the 11th where they traded for a yankees IF named jose pirela from the yankees, and it got me thinking.

preller likes to make moves. eppler is intimately familiar with former recent yankees and has scouted the padres because of previous trades.

the padres have a glut of infielders and seem to be moving in the direction of a few of their younger ones. they have pirela, spangenberg, our friend amarista, rondon himself, middlebrooks and gyorko.

all could be had for reasonable parts and for the angels that's a necessity.

what originally spurred this thread was the possibility of eppler acquiring yangervis solarte to man 3b for the halos. he's basically a middle of the pack defender and a reasonably good hitter, plus he fits the narrative of young and controlled.

if the padres are high on him, we could get middlebrooks or an interesting reclamation project in gyorko. stick them all at 3b permanently.

thoughts?

Interesting that you mention Solarte, I have been thinking about him myself. I think he makes the best fit, not only because of his offensive/defensive skills but because he is 28 and controlled through his prime until 2020. I also like the fact that he comes from and has had success at an extreme pitcher's park.

As for the other options, I am not too thrilled about them. I'd rather keep my pieces and give Cowart and Kubitza a shot.

Making the playoffs is the only thing that matters to the voters...

...unless you play in the NL, then you can be on a team that implodes down the stretch and still win unanimously.

If Donaldson hit .270/33Hr/100 RBI Trout would have won.

If Trout hit .310/45HR/110+ RBI, Trout would have won.

In reality, Trout hit .299/41/90 and Donaldson .297/41/123

The stats are comparable enough and the fact that Donaldson was the star a more exciting team, took them to the playoffs (with or without his team's help) and was an anchor in the lineup put him over the top. I honestly value analytics more than the typical avg,hr,rbi line but what I mentioned still puts Donaldson above Trout in the "most valuable" department.

The NL had the top 3 MVP candidates on non play-off teams simply because no players on play-off teams were remotely close to being better. You can make a case for Rizzo/Cespedes but they were not on the level of Harper nontheless.

Irrelevant to the thread, but it really is baffling how bad trouts gotten at stealing.

Not trying much anymore to not get hurt is one thing, but getting caught ao many times in so few tries is another

Agreed. I didn't realize how bad his SB to CS ratio was this year until I saw the stats.

Defensive metrics are significantly flawed.

Based on stats and my eye test, Donaldson was not a better baserunner, fielder, and clutch hitter this year.

I agree that they are flawed, but that's not to say that they're completely useless. What differentiates them from traditional stats? If anything, the metrics take more factors into account that some of the more basic stats don't. But I agree with you, they don't tell the whole story.

Now, I find it interesting that you mention your eye test. Did you watch every Donaldson/Trout ggame? I think it's safe to say you've watched a lot more Trout base running and defensive gems and are biased in that front- not necessarily on purpose but naturally. We can go back and forth between your eye test vs mine or others... But it doesn't make either of us more correct, after all the eye test is based on personal opinion. But the numbers, although not perfect, favor Donaldson.