marcosantinia12

I have to agree with this. Also add the fact that he has multiple years of control. His value will drop once he becomes a 1 year rental. As far as Skaggs, I'm glad he's having a positive approach. I think he is one of the key pieces of the 2016 team. If he can come out strong and pitch like a solid #3, he gives the team so many options in terms of being able to flip excess starters in trades at the deadline. CJ is the perfect example. I'd like to trade him now whether it be for a decent return or salary release, but his value is at its low RN. If he can pitch around his career average (Career 110 ERA+) and Skaggs exceeds, CJ can bring back a solid return come mid-season.

Interesting, that's another possibility that I didn't really think about. I'm really, really hoping for Bastardo.

Thanks for the positive comments everyone. I figured i 'd reply in 1 post instead of separate ones but... Regarding Escobar, I don't think he can sustain his .375 OBP. However, like Scotty said, I'm hoping for a .270 BA and .350 on base which is right about his 3 year average. That would give us a huge improvement over Calhoun atop the lineup, for instance, who boasted a .308 obp last year. Calhoun is the better player obviously, but I'm speaking in respective to the table setter role. I understand the lack of fondness for the Simmons trade. I thought about the same thing too, "if we were going to trade away Newcomb okay, but why not do it for an immediate need?" However, Aybar was going to be a FA next season and if the plan is a 5 year window, I don't think he is the go to gbuy to resign in 2016. Other than that, idk what shortstop would be available if any. Eppler saw an opportunity to get a head start on that as filling the SS position which is more difficult to fill than our other holes. I think the justification for this is that we would have to have done this sooner or later within the next year. Halo, I apologize for my mistake on Ramos, it was late last night when I wrote this and I honestly don't know where I got age 25 from haha. And I agree about the numbers, Ramos isn't a great pitcher. I was more referring to his numbers at a glance which were better than Salas making it hard to understand why he was non-tendered instead. But like I said, I'll give Eppler the benefit of the doubt for now. Our BP is very concerning, I'll agree but I have a hard time believing Eppler saying that we are done in that department. That or some starters will be in the pen, which I'm not too fond about.

So far, I think that the majority of AW has been dissapointed by out off season and the taste of GM decisions Eppler has given us. It seems most people for the most part aren't following what he is doing, myself included. However, we haven't really had a chance to evaluate him completely (sample size, you might say). So far, my thoughts on Eppler are mixed... but I've given/giving him the benefit of the doubt. Just to touch on a couple of important things he's done that stand out to me the most: *For those who care to read* Simmons - I personally hated it at first but learned to like it as it fits Trout's 5 year plan. Was it an overpay? I thought so, but looking at how the trade market for prospects and proven players (especially young ones) has unfolded, I think we got a pretty sweet deal. Aybar had one year, and quite frankly was on the downward path of his career (not that he can't still be a productive player). Ellis, in my opinion, was overly valued by many guys including myself due to the fact that he was our number 2 prospect. In reality that doesn't say much more than that our farm is very weak. Newcomb, on the other hand was a huge piece, and in a team lacking a true ace (sorry G.Rich) his high, Lester-like comparisons and ceiling really gave us something to look forward to . But at the end of the day, he is far from a can't miss talent, evident though his poor walk rate and command issues. I'm ok with this, if indeed we plan to create the best possible on field team through the next 5 years. Salas/Ramos - I really didn't like this transaction. It seems like Salas is becoming our old friend's Ernesto Frieri's successor. It seems as if he could never hold a lead this year and his numbers are horrid (below average pitcher in 3 of the last 4 years). Keeping a 30 y/o reliever with a 4.24 ERA over a 25 y/o with a respectable 2.75 ERA is a head-scratcher. But, I'll again give Eppler the benefit of the doubt because Salas did have the better peripheral stats, plus Ramos' stats are positively affected by the fact that he pitched strictly in low-leverage situations. I do however completely disagree with him being complacent with the current bullpen, ESPECIALLY after trading Gott. Escobar - I loved this acquisition. I mentioned him before, along with other names, as guys that would be great fits with the Angels. He is a relatively cheap veteran presence that brings with him a very good approach to the plate. His OBP alone is a great aid to the Angels lack of on-base skills -which I have personally classified as the team's top need/priority. Trout should be driving in more runs, period. We should be taking advantage of his run-production. Yes, we gave up a nice piece in Gott but fortunately, his player profile is very replaceable with relief pitching being the easiest of any position to replace (and also the easiest to bust/fall off). Pennington/Soto/Gentry/Choi - Overall solid moves. Pennington and Soto provide veteran backups that have reputations for being good clubhouse guys. I don't think there has been any negative comments on them, not that I have seen at least. Gentry, in my opinion was a great acquisition. One of my off-season wishes was to get a speedy outfielder to pinch-run off the bench. We got that with Gentry, as well as a VERY good glove. Choi is the most interesting of the bunch. I think he really has a respectable ceiling (I've read 2.5-3 WAR peak predictions here) and more importantly, I think he has a decent floor due to his well-rounded hitting approach. I think he's a Calhoun type of player, not skill-wise or type of play, but because I feel like he has been overlooked due to his lack of a standout skill (as if a great eye wasn't one). He doesn't boast great power, speed, and as far as I know he is an average defender. I think however he is a great pick up that fits Eppler's promise to bring in "unknown" minor-league/depth guys that he thinks could turn into special pieces for the ML club. I know this was very long, but I just wanted to write this because I was bored and I wanted to make a case for Billy.Mostly bored. Anyways, I think its is unfair to judge him for how the off-season has gone thus far. I do reserve my right to say I like him though, simply because it just depends on what he does from here on out. As for splashy signings... no he hasn't made one, but who here really expected us to sign a top tier SP (whether we wanted to or not)? We expected a big OFer, and from my knowledge, the Angels are speaking to their agents. None of them have signed except for Heyward, who I believe we did make an offer to, so we aren't exactly behind. To me, the biggest losses this off-season have been O'day and Aoki (who becomes irrelevant anyways if we sign a big OF). I'd really like to see Eppler begin to attack FA more aggressively before we lose another OF target, but let's wait and see what happens.

There's definitely so much knowledge on this board. I'm fairly new here myself, but I take a lot from everyone here whether I may agree or disagree. I particularly like the fact that many times I have a (strong) particular stance on something and may change because of some of the people here. It allows me to be more open minded and overall more informed on my own stances. Doc, IP, Ettin, Scotty,nikkachez,todprods are some of the really knowledgable posters in my opinon that I can think off the top of my head but everyone here really has their own contribution to the page. Some, I really value their creativity with ideas, some their projections, some their analysis, etc. And of course there's some whose humor makes Angel's Win what it is ! Thanks to everyone for their input, and specially to Chuck for making this possible in the first place.

Lol

I'd definitely like to pick him up. It seems like the tax line is an obstacle for Arte. If so, I would like to pick up Kim, Kendrick/Murphy (F the draft pick at this point) and Bastardo. Then trade a package of Santiago, Kubitza, and Alcantara for a BP power arm. I wonder what that package would net us. We would end up w/ 1 Escobar 2 Kendrick/Murphy 3 Trout 4 Pujols 5 Calhoun 6 Kim/Cron 7 Cron/Kim 8 Perez 9 Simmons The rotation would be Richards, CJ, Heaney, Trop, Shoemaker/Weaver. Slowly work in Skaggs. With a lock down BP of Smith,Bastardo,a power arm, and Street that rotation can be surprisingly good despite all of the question marks. That along with Simmons/Kendrick drastic defensive improvement over Aybar (2015) and Gio. Obviously, I'd much rather to spend in FA this offseason to appropriately fill our needs but if Arte really won't open his wallet, then I would take this.

Michael Conforto

I actually thought about this as well until I saw the details of the contract. With 120M left over 5 years, I'm sure a 29 Y/O prime Heyward will opt out for a new 6/150 or 7/165 + contract easily. If Heyward can become a 20 HR .290/.365/.460 doubles machine, he will probably be able to land a 200M+ deal (8/25). Works good for the Cubs to pay for a guy's prime years on a 3 year commitment (unless of interest/drastic drop in production/etc.) which fits in perfectly with the team's control over other guys (arbitration and extensions).

You're probably right. I personally don't value Soler on those levels but I am going based off of numerous rumors involving him including the Braves wanting Soler from Chicago (I think I read somewhere that they value him almost as high as Pollock who is a 6 WAR player). I have also seen other potential deals like Quintana or Salazar/Carrasco. After re-reading my initial proposal, you're probably right about that not being enough. I definitely think they wouldn't have to include both guys though. I could see Soler, Almora, Underwood, La Stella, and Hammel (or perhaps Hendricks) for Carrasco. I don't understand why there is so much value in Soler but it seems like there is a lot of interest for him. A lot higher than Baez IMO. I feel like his upside is great (though not as high as Baez who I see becoming into Cargo 2.0) but more importantly he has a very very high floor. I could see a lot of Cespedes comparisons from executives. This guys is not exactly a "prospect anymore" and can suddenly become a .275/.340/.490 30+ HR beast as soon as next year. That's pretty insane potential value for a guy that will be paid $4M for the next 5 years (cheaper than arbitration even).

Schwarber or Soler (one of the two in a package) to Cleveland incoming. I don't think Heaney nets you Soler. Skaggs definitely doesn't. I feel like there is a lot of value in Soler out there, with one example being the Braves who wanted Soler from Chicago for Miller (though i'm sure there were more pieces involved). I think that if the Cubs trade Soler, it will be for a big time pitcher like Carlos Carrasco. Maybe Soler, Hammel, and Almora for Carrasco. Cubs will then sign Span/Parra to a 3 year deal. Probably Parra (given that they've spent so much $ already). I can see him for 3/23 for a chance to play on that team. Heyward, Zobrist, Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Russel, Montero, Pitcher, Parra Arrieta, Lester, Carrasco, Lackey, Hendrick wow. I could also see a Schwarber deal instead of Soler, maybe for Salazar. Schwarber and Hammel for Salazar

Exactly. I wouldn't do the trade, as I mentioned myself. I'm just putting up what it would take to illustrate the point that Newcomb, Ellis, Gott, and Cron would not come remotely close to netting Arenado.

I like this as well. Imagine getting Escobar/Upton's OBP of .350/.352 instead of Giavotella/Calhoun's OBP of .299/.319 (Career OBP averages). That's an 84 point difference in OBP. Personaly, I'd like to maximize Upton's value by batting him behind Trout (and the obp guys in front of him) and infront of Pujols and Calhoun who could take advantage of Upton's obp as well. Upton would get lots of RBI opportunities to maximize his power/slugging capabilities with a .400 on base bat in front of him, as well opportunities to score due to his obp infront of those behind him. Of course this only works if we pick up a 2B with a good OBP to bat next to Escobar.

I assume you were speaking in response to me. I typed up my previous post before reading your comment but if you take a look at that, it outlines why I think that package is fair, according to market value. I would never make that trade because it would take substantial pieces from both our big league club as well as our farm. As far as the arb years... they are still looked as controlled years to an extent and are of extreme values. And as for the coors effect, its something that the team looking to get Arenado has to worry about, not Colorado. The Rockies wouldn't care if he was Babe Ruth at home and Matt Joyce away, they'd still look to maximize his value for what his overall numbers show.

Unfortunately, that's what the market is. And in reality, it would take more than Calhoun and Richards. Think of it like this... I would say Arenado has a similar value to Jose Fernandez, with Nolan having an extra year of control. In fact, Dave Cameron from fangraphs has Arenado ranked 14th in terms of trade value to Fernandez' 23rd. Seeing that this was written before Fernandez' successful return from TJ (which obviously eliminated big Q's), lets say that Fernandez' 3 years are, at the slightest, more valuable than Arenado's 4. Fernandez' asking price was Seager, Urias, Pederson. Or to a more comparable package, Pollock, Corbin, Swanson, + 3 other elite talents. I want to say those other 3 probably included Blair and 2 from the following list of Lamb, Bradlie, Inciarte, or Shipley. Let's see how it compares: Angels top values in order (from that list): 1. Richards 2. Calhoun 3. Newcomb 4. Cron 5. Ellis 6. Gott Dbacks top values in order (from that list): 1. Pollock 2. Corbin 3. Swanson 4. Inciarte 5. Lamb 6. Bradley/Blair Comparison: 1 & 2. Its a bit difficult to compare Richards to Pollock because they play different positions which leads to different valuing. A better comparison is Richards and Calhoun vs Pollock and Corbin. I'd say that Pollock/Corbin have a more value (though not drastically). Pollock is an All-star talent of 6.6 WAR. Corbin is probably a bit less valued than Richards due to TJ but probably has the same ceiling. DBacks 3. Swanson (10th) is more valuable than Newcomb (19th). DBacks 4,5,&6. The Dbacks package destroys the Angels' package of Cron (who isn't exactly a sough after talent), a 4-5 starter, and a reliever. Inciarte and Lamb alone are 10x more valuable than Cron, Ellis, Gott. DBacks It's insane what the market's price has become, but it is what it is. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-the-full-list/

I think they were more value to the Angels really. Other than Newcomb, the other two options are not really any stand out talent. Sure Ellis was our 2nd top prospect, but that isn't saying much in our talent-depleted farm system. He has the upside of a 4-5 starter according to most scouts. Not even a current 4-5 starter, but someone with a ceiling of becoming that, if all goes well. As far as Gott, he is a nice piece to have, but not somebody a team would give all-star talent for.

I'll add to this though, because I think of this topic often myself. What could have been if we didn't get Simmons? Not necessarily what Newcomb and Ellis will turn into, but what we could have gotten in another deal if we had chose to flip them. I initially hated the Simmons trade but I've come to accept it and actually like it. Of course, my final position on it will depend on the end of the off-season and how our roster ends up. I think it is justified if we have made Trout's years the priority and we will do what it takes to make his time here special meaning we will spend, to some degree, in FA. But even with me liking the trade, I feel like we could have paired that group of players in different packages for more elite players. Maybe something for a player like Dee Gordon.

This. I don't want to be a dick or anything, but those are pretty unrealistic trade offers. Richards for Soler or Schwarber, maybe. Arenado would take Richards,Calhoun,Newcomb,Ellis,Gott,Cron

Dude, I have been thinking about that exact scenario the last couple of days lol. I would love that if indeed going over the tax would be an issue. I personally want to get Upton (Having moved on from the preference of Heyward) but I really like the idea of having Revere lead off. That would be great consolation for not spending on a top tier OF.

I'm with that stance as well. I think if you can add one more high OBP infielder in front of Trout, our offense would increase dramatically (despite not showing on paper). Obtaining the OBP bats is the most important priority. Escobar is one down. Adding Upton behind Trout would then be the difference maker IMO because not only are we counting on Trout's production or Pujols occasional HR to drive in those OBP guys, you now have Upton and Calhoun behind Trout/ Pujols who can produce in case one slumps. The team shouldn't tank when Trout has a down month like August.

That actually wouldn't be a bad idea. I've read some reports about Murphy being better defensively at 3B so that could work. But in that case wouldnt you rather bring Kendrick back? He's a couple years older but will take less $ and years and has already proven to hit in Anaheim while Murphy hasnt played in the AL, let alone in Anaheim. I could see the counter argument about Murphy being a lefty bat, although Angel stadium may hurt his numbers for the same reason.

^^^ As far as two significant upgrades, I'd be stoked for that. But what would significantly upgrade out infield right now? Pass on Murphy because of his lousy defense (can't pair him w Simmons). Lost out on Zobrist (which I don't think we could've pried from Chicago) as well. I thought about Desmond until I saw his consistent decline. If Arte was willing to pay more, I'd like to have Kendrick back. Other than that, I'm hoping for a Holt trade, or something similar.

My fault about Sipp lol, I completely missed that. Bummer... Really hoping for Bastardo now.

Does the acquisition of Escobar change what you guys think about our LF situation at all? Personally, I think this means we go hard on pursuing Upton. We reportedly are not in the Heyward sweeptakes anymore, and quite frankly I'm glad we aren't going to be trying to outbid the Cards or Cubs - let's face it, unless Heyward gets blown away with an offer, he wont be coming to Anaheim. Anyways, we just picked up an effective top of the order/ on-base/ low-k guy in Escobar, what we were looking at Heyward for. On top of that, we have retained pieces in Santiago and CJ to pursue a 2B that fits this scenario as well (obp, high contact, and prefferably good defense). Obviously, this type of player is much easier to aquire via trade than an impact power bat. With that said, I would like to add to our power if possible. I am scared that Pujols will stop producing power numbers soon and although I see Calhoun as a very productive middle of the order bat, I see him more as a 5th hitter rather than 4th (if he had to take over for Pujols' decline going forward). We won't be adding any type of power bat via trade, so how about Upton? My opinion for the remaining of the offseason... Sign Upton - 7/147 21AAV (save 78 mil that Heyward would probably cost us / 9/225) Sign Sipp or Bastardo - 3/15 5AAV Trade from a package of the following :Santiago, Wilson, Bedrosian, Gio, Morin, Kubitza for a young cost-controlled 2B table-setter (basically a younger Gio with better defense). I think that would keep us very close to the luxury tax line as Arte wants and greatly improves the team.

"Writing in the Howard trade got me thinking about a couple of sexy and releastic, yet challenging to manifacture lineups. But just as a concensus, which of the two would everyone pick? 1. Holt 2B (.349 OBP) 2. Escobar 3B (.375 OBP) 3. Trout CF (.992 OPS) 4. Upton LF (.454 SLG... .491 a year ago) 5. Pujols 1B (40 Hr) 6. Calhoun RF (23db, 26hr) 7. Cron DH (.739 OPS) 8. Perez C (.250 BA) 9. Simmons SS (.321 OBP) Or ... I think both of these two lineups are drastically better than last year's. Not necessarily in terms of talent, but because we have role players. Escobar/Holt/Prado are not all star hitters but they might as well be because of the difference their added OBP and contact rates would make in front of Trout and the rest of the middle of the lineup." -From a post I made on Nov. 25 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Holt and Upton incoming! Honestly though, I like this trade. I've proposed a trade for Escobar here and there (along with Prado, Walker, etc.). Sucks that we gave up Gott but if we can sign a BP arm like Sipp or Bastardo I'd say its a great deal considering we kept Santiago as a trade piece.