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CartiHalos

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  1. Like
    CartiHalos got a reaction from VladimirTrout27 for a blog entry, The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly: 12 Games In   
    12 games have come and gone, and, for lack of a better word, the results have left lots of room for conversation.
    The Angels are 6-6 - frankly, a result better than I expected, since I found our first month or so very difficult, schedule wise.  Despite this, I am not pleased with the result, because based on the events of said 12 games, we could easily be 8-4 or even 9-3.  That being said, we're still 2nd in the division and only a game back of the Rangers. With 150 games ahead, there's been a lot of good, a lot of bad, and some downright ugly play during the season thus far.  Let's break down what fits where (PSA: These will 100% be overreactions to small sample sizes. I'll update it as more games are played and we start seeing more form.):
    Good: The Outfield (Mostly)
    The Angels made an interesting decision to take 5 outfielders on their roster - largely due to service time issues - but so far it's paid off for them.  The 5 outfielders have a combined slash line of .259/.330/.519 for a total OPS+ of 138. Now, admittedly, these numbers are a little skewed - they're greatly helped by Taylor Ward and Mike Trout, who are sporting enormous 145 and 224 OPS+'s (not counting April 10th where Trout was 2-3 with a 2B, 1B and a BB and Ward was 1-3 with a 1B and a BB). Moniak has struggled in his own right, taking over for the second spot in the order since Schanuel was struggling. His OPS sits at a mere .476 - we hope it evens itself out, and the prospects look good - last year, Moniak's biggest struggle was with plate discipline - In 2023, he chased 47% of pitches out of the zone and whiffed on 39% of pitches he swung at, good for a 35% K rate and a measly 2% walk rate - all of which were bottom 5th percentile in the MLB.  Thus far in 2024, he's chased 22% of pitches (down 25%), whiffed on 21% of swings (down 18%), strikes out 25% of the time (down 10%) and walks 13% of the time (up 11%). These are massive changes for the better, and if the bat get's back to 2023 form, the eye could complement for an even better season than his 2023.  Jo Adell is rocking an .894 OPS, helped by a 2-4 day with a homer in his 3rd start of the season. His batted ball numbers are tremendous for the small sample size - his expected batting average and sweet-spot% are both 85th percentile or better, and his whiff% and K% are both 75th or better. While he's experienced blunders - like that surefire stolen base that he ran through - he's given the Angels a real reason to keep him in the lineup, and hopefully he can build on this success for the future. Hicks has been solid, not super special, but done a good job seeing pitches and playing a solid right field.  Let's just say, if not for the outfield unit and this next guy, we may be 0-12. 
    Good: Logan O'Hoppe
    Logan O'Hoppe hit the ground running in his 2024 campaign, catching 10 of the Angels first 12 contests and touting a ridiculous 179 OPS+. We always knew he had the bat, but what's equally impressive is how well rounded his game has been thus far - he's been an elite level framer (92nd percentile in Framing Runs Above Average), improved his BB% by nearly 4%, and even boasts a 76th percentile sprint speed.  There isn't much more to say other than he leads American League catchers in, *deep breath* -
    AVG, OBP, wOBA, wRC+, fWar, Max Exit Velo, Hard Hit%, Fielding Percentage, Innings Caught, and Fielding Run Value. 
    Oh, and he smoked a game-tying grand slam against the Red Sox.
    Good: Half the Pitching Unit
    Specifically, I'm Talking about Reid Detmers, Tyler Anderson, Adam Cimber, Matt Moore, and Carlos Estevez. These 5 guys have been outstanding. Let's go on a little honor roll of their achievements:
    Detmers: 2-0 in 2 starts with a 1.64 ERA. First start: 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K's vs a potent O's offense. Second start: 6 IP, 1 ER, 12 K's. Utter dominance in a 2-1 win.
    Tyler Anderson: 2 beautiful 7 inning, scoreless starts. His 14 scoreless innings to start a season are 2nd in Angels history, behind Nolan Ryan's 16. 
    Adam Cimber: 6 appearances, 6.2 IP (including 4.2 straight scoreless), 1 ER, good for a 1.35 ERA.  
    Matt Moore: 4 appearances, 5 IP, 4 K's, 0 anything else. No men have seen base against Mighty Matt Moore. 
    Carlos Estevez: 4 IP at 2023 all-star level, no earned runs and a 0.25 WHIP. He also ragged on the Fanatics jerseys which was pretty funny. 
    Bad: The Infield Bats
    This group consists of Nolan Schanuel, Miguel Sano, Luis Rengifo, Brandon Drury, Zach Neto, and Anthony Rendon.  Starting with the good, Rengifo has been respectable, albeit in the least at bats.  He's slashing .333/.357/.407 and looks to be gunning for more playing time. Rendon has been on fire since returning to Anaheim, but his ice cold start still has him at 25 OPS+. Sano's strong batted ball skills got him off to a solid start, but he's ultimately simmered to an 87 OPS+. Neto and Drury have been similarly poor to start the year, with a 45 and 27 OPS+ respectively. Finally, Schanuel's 2-31, 27 OPS+ stretch got him a couple day breather. It's still very early, but when 6 of your 12 regulars account for just 1 of the 12 homers you've hit, you obviously desire more production. I have faith they'll figure it out, but I desperately hope one of the younger guys makes a bigger jump.  
    Bad: The Scheduling
    This is more of a personal frustration than anything, but what is going on with the scheduling this year.  How on earth is it possible that the AL West Angels first 8 series contains 2 series against the Rays, Red Sox, and Orioles and 2 against random NL teams. I guess I was complaining about playing the A's on opening day every year, but why are we playing them so late? All of our matchups vs the A's come between June 24 - July 28. We don't play our first game against an AL West team until May 17th.  I know we play every team the same amount or whatever, but why are we running the damn AL East Gauntlet? I don't know man. 
    Ugly: The Rest of the Pitching
    The Angels 5.09 Team ERA is 29th in the MLB, ahead of only Coors Field's very own Colorado Rockies. If you take away Tyler Anderson and Reid Detmers, that balloons to a 6.44, still 0.13 ahead of the Rockies, but still technically the worst since the Phillies in 1930.  Take away the 3 good relievers, and we're at 7.85 - A whole run above the worst pitching team ever.  Obviously, that's an overreaction - it's only been 15 games, but besides those 5 pitchers, it has truly been really bad.  The only other 2 pitchers to pitch and not give up a run are Carson Fulmer, who came up after Guillermo Zuniga went on the IL, and Miguel Sano - in a game that the Angels lost 12-2.  Sandoval seems to really let his emotions affect him on the mound, Canning's mistake pitches cost him some long balls, Silseth fell victim to homers and high pitch counts before he landed on the IL with elbow inflammation, and Soriano has yet to replicate his outstanding first relief performance. Add on the new bullpen arms in Luis Garcia, Jose Cisneros, and Guillermo Zuniga have all allowed 4 or more earned runs in 5 or less innings of work, and you have a recipe for some big losses in games not started by Detmers or Anderson.  Thankfully, I don't possibly believe this level of terrible is sustainable. 
     
    There's my roster breakdown for the season thus far. I think Ron's done a good job with what he has, and expectations weren't incredibly high to begin with. There's plenty of good, but enough bad to be frustrating. At least Mike Trout is back, Detmers looks good, and if we lose too many games we'll have a nice high draft pick to work with. 
     
  2. Like
    CartiHalos got a reaction from AzAngel for a blog entry, My Takeaways from Spring So Far   
    With most of the major player reassignment done, the Angels Opening Day roster is beginning to take shape.  While a few questions still remain, I think I've seen enough to feel confident in posting my opinions here. I want to make it clear that I'm not a professional analyst, nor a professional hater. The things I'm talking about here are things I've been seeing and thinking all spring, and as much as I love the players the Angels have I'm an Angels fan above that.  Anywhere I see shortcomings or inconsistencies on the roster I'll comment on it.  With that said, let's talk about the roster:
    Too Many Angels In the Outfield?
    The entire Angels outfield has been absolutely stellar this Spring - Mike Trout (.694 OPS) has actually been the worst, but he remains Mike Trout.  Taylor Ward (.753 OPS) looks to have left field locked up, new signings Aaron Hicks (1.314 OPS) and Jake Marisnick (1.164 OPS) have been outstanding, and the 25-and-under crowd have impressed as well with Mickey Moniak (.894 OPS), Jo Adell (.704 OPS), and Jordyn Adams (.844 OPS).
    That's 7 outfielders who have a chance at the 4 or possibly 5 outfield spots on the MLB roster. Getting the obvious out of the way, Mike Trout and Taylor Ward will be running center and left, respectively. Mickey Moniak has no remaining options, and has played great since his call up last May, making him the obvious choice for a potential platoon with recent Major League Signee Aaron Hicks in right. On the other hand Jordyn Adams appears slated to, at the very least, begin the season as a Bee. There's your 4 outfielders, however here's where things get tricky.
    Jo Adell has no options left,  limiting the Angels choices to either A. Field him on the roster all year, B. Place him on waivers, or C. Try to find a trade partner for him. Option A seems most likely, bringing the total to 5 outfielders active for the Angels. In itself this isn't a problem, seeing as Trout will likely be getting a lot of looks at DH and Moniak is far better equipped to hit off righties. However, if we're fielding 5 outfielders, I'd almost prefer the 5th be Jake Marisnick.  He's been outstanding this spring, is better defensively than Adell as well as better on the basepaths.  Marisnick's 5 stolen bases lead the MLB (Adell is 4/4 in stolen base attempts, to be fair), and his defensive pedigree gives him value as both a defensive sub and a pinch runner, providing much needed versatility to an Angels bench that will likely consist of Matt Thaiss, Aaron Hicks, and Ehire Adrianza/Miguel Sano.
    Of course, I understand why Adell will likely be the 5th outfielder, as Marisnick is on a Minor League deal, so there's no harm no foul with him starting in Salt Lake while Adell makes the opening day roster. I just really hope we get to see if Marisnick can replicate this spring performance in the bigs at some point this year. 
    Who Gets The 4th Bench Spot?
    Another internal battle is the battle for the 6th infielder/4th bench spot.  It seems to have been cut down to Miguel Sano, Ehire Adrianza, and *maybe* Livan Soto. While Soto's performance should give him a real chance, I tend to believe he won't get the nod simply because he's younger and less experienced.
    Miguel Sano is incredibly fun to watch, however provides 0 value defensively, especially if Wash is trying to fit him in at 3rd on occasion. Adrianza provides familiarity for Washington from the Atlanta days and better positional versatility, albeit at a far lower offensive output than Sano. Adrianza's career high is a 102 wRC+, achieved in 2019 in Minnesota. His teammate, Miguel Sano, posted a 138 wRC+ in that same year, his best in a season with at least 100 games played. 
    In my opinion, the spot should go to Sano, especially with the availability of DH at bats.  Adrianza certainly provides value, but Rengifo, Drury, and Neto in the middle infield leaves less room for Adrianza to show it. Sano's role will likely be DHing, pinch hitting, and potentially covering first in case of Schanuel struggling, which I don't think he will. My only issue with this is it leaves Rengifo as the backup shortstop in case of Neto needing a day off, but here's to hoping that under Wash's guidance Rengifo can improve his shortstop defense to make that less of a problem. 
    Who's the Closer?
    Last year, Carlos Estevez's first half was one of the most dominant Angels closer performances we've seen since K-Rod.  He followed it up with a fine, not great, second half, and thus far in spring he's been very unimpressive. I'm not saying he can't bounce back, but I'd much rather see Robert Stephenson be the go to guy in high leverage situations - 9th inning or otherwise. However, assuming he's not ready to start the season - or struggles with injury during - who's the guy?  We've seen Washington's teams close by committee before, with Gagne, Frank Francisco, and CJ Wilson sharing save opportunities before Neftali Feliz joined the team in 2010. Did Estevez's 2023 earn him the closer job this year? I kind of hope it didn't. There's too much talent in this group to be limited to traditional bullpen roles. I'd like to see Estevez, Stephenson, and Moore all get opportunities in the 9th.
    Rotational Problems?
    I will start this off by saying that, as a unit, the pitching has been incredible this spring, by Angels standards.  Whether it's the new coaching or the new players, they've been throwing more strikes and it's been great to see. Last year, despite winning the Cactus League, the Angels were bottom 10 in ERA and walked more batters than everyone but the White Sox and A's in the spring.  This year they've improved in both aspects, up to 17th in ERA and 22nd(!) in walks.  While it's not indicative of a top 10 rotation, it's a nice change of pace from the past. That being said, within the rotation I've had some concerns.
    Reid Detmers has had a good spring in terms of making hitters miss and getting ground balls instead of fly balls, however mistake pitches still haunt him.  Griffin Canning has looked excellent despite some control issues in a couple starts, but could be poised to make a huge jump this year.  Chase Silseth looks outstanding, I still truly believe he could turn into a 120 ERA+ starter this year if given the opportunity to do so.  Even Tyler Anderson has looked much better than he did last year, though time will tell with that one. 
    Patrick Sandoval, though, hasn't looked very good. It's sad, because he flashed so much potential in 2022, followed it up with a dominant WBC before a disappointing 2023 and a 10.29 ERA this spring.  Now, this is far from the end - Blake Snell posted a 5.62 ERA in spring last year and won the Cy Young. I bet Sandy will be very solid in our rotation this year, but it hurts to see this in terms of him becoming the ace it looked like he would become a couple years ago. A lot of his struggles seem rooted in getting behind in counts and getting frustrated with himself. Hopefully Barry Enright and Ron Washington can knock him out of that funk and get him into 2022 form again. Gotta root for the hometown kids. 
    As Washington said in a recent interview with Rhett Bollinger,  "Things can change where someone has to leave the rotation."  This leads me to my last question - 
    What Does Signing Blake Snell Do To The Angels Playoff Odds?
    Let me start off by saying this whole Snell situation is so very frustrating. If Heyman gets on a livestream and says "There's mutual interest between Snell and the Angels, but it's hard to tell if Arte is willing to spend" one more time I might delete Twitter. That being said, in this world we're gonna imagine Arte has a change of heart and the Angels sign Blake Snell. How much closer are we to the playoffs than we were without him?
    I think, honestly, quite a bit.  I'm very publicly a supporter of Blake Snell, but I see the qualms people have with signing him. Giving up the 2nd round pick would certainly hurt, especially since our farm system isn't very good, but you can only hope that a second round pick becomes Blake Snell.  Predictive stats and peripherals like Blake Snell more than results have even in his down years, and he's coming off a season where he won the ERA title by nearly 0.38 points, the biggest gap between #1 and #2 since 2007. 
    The Angels lost Ohtani, and watching the team this spring has done nothing but make me believe the offense can hold their own without him, but the rotation is gonna miss him.  Starting pitching is clearly the biggest hole this team has, and getting a clear top of the rotation arm fills that gap more than any other single player. We can throw 1 or 2 year prove it deals to players that used to be top of the line starters as much as we want, but to compete for a playoff spot in 2024 or even 2025, I think signing Snell now is the best chance we have.
  3. Like
    CartiHalos got a reaction from Halo in Chicago for a blog entry, My Takeaways from Spring So Far   
    With most of the major player reassignment done, the Angels Opening Day roster is beginning to take shape.  While a few questions still remain, I think I've seen enough to feel confident in posting my opinions here. I want to make it clear that I'm not a professional analyst, nor a professional hater. The things I'm talking about here are things I've been seeing and thinking all spring, and as much as I love the players the Angels have I'm an Angels fan above that.  Anywhere I see shortcomings or inconsistencies on the roster I'll comment on it.  With that said, let's talk about the roster:
    Too Many Angels In the Outfield?
    The entire Angels outfield has been absolutely stellar this Spring - Mike Trout (.694 OPS) has actually been the worst, but he remains Mike Trout.  Taylor Ward (.753 OPS) looks to have left field locked up, new signings Aaron Hicks (1.314 OPS) and Jake Marisnick (1.164 OPS) have been outstanding, and the 25-and-under crowd have impressed as well with Mickey Moniak (.894 OPS), Jo Adell (.704 OPS), and Jordyn Adams (.844 OPS).
    That's 7 outfielders who have a chance at the 4 or possibly 5 outfield spots on the MLB roster. Getting the obvious out of the way, Mike Trout and Taylor Ward will be running center and left, respectively. Mickey Moniak has no remaining options, and has played great since his call up last May, making him the obvious choice for a potential platoon with recent Major League Signee Aaron Hicks in right. On the other hand Jordyn Adams appears slated to, at the very least, begin the season as a Bee. There's your 4 outfielders, however here's where things get tricky.
    Jo Adell has no options left,  limiting the Angels choices to either A. Field him on the roster all year, B. Place him on waivers, or C. Try to find a trade partner for him. Option A seems most likely, bringing the total to 5 outfielders active for the Angels. In itself this isn't a problem, seeing as Trout will likely be getting a lot of looks at DH and Moniak is far better equipped to hit off righties. However, if we're fielding 5 outfielders, I'd almost prefer the 5th be Jake Marisnick.  He's been outstanding this spring, is better defensively than Adell as well as better on the basepaths.  Marisnick's 5 stolen bases lead the MLB (Adell is 4/4 in stolen base attempts, to be fair), and his defensive pedigree gives him value as both a defensive sub and a pinch runner, providing much needed versatility to an Angels bench that will likely consist of Matt Thaiss, Aaron Hicks, and Ehire Adrianza/Miguel Sano.
    Of course, I understand why Adell will likely be the 5th outfielder, as Marisnick is on a Minor League deal, so there's no harm no foul with him starting in Salt Lake while Adell makes the opening day roster. I just really hope we get to see if Marisnick can replicate this spring performance in the bigs at some point this year. 
    Who Gets The 4th Bench Spot?
    Another internal battle is the battle for the 6th infielder/4th bench spot.  It seems to have been cut down to Miguel Sano, Ehire Adrianza, and *maybe* Livan Soto. While Soto's performance should give him a real chance, I tend to believe he won't get the nod simply because he's younger and less experienced.
    Miguel Sano is incredibly fun to watch, however provides 0 value defensively, especially if Wash is trying to fit him in at 3rd on occasion. Adrianza provides familiarity for Washington from the Atlanta days and better positional versatility, albeit at a far lower offensive output than Sano. Adrianza's career high is a 102 wRC+, achieved in 2019 in Minnesota. His teammate, Miguel Sano, posted a 138 wRC+ in that same year, his best in a season with at least 100 games played. 
    In my opinion, the spot should go to Sano, especially with the availability of DH at bats.  Adrianza certainly provides value, but Rengifo, Drury, and Neto in the middle infield leaves less room for Adrianza to show it. Sano's role will likely be DHing, pinch hitting, and potentially covering first in case of Schanuel struggling, which I don't think he will. My only issue with this is it leaves Rengifo as the backup shortstop in case of Neto needing a day off, but here's to hoping that under Wash's guidance Rengifo can improve his shortstop defense to make that less of a problem. 
    Who's the Closer?
    Last year, Carlos Estevez's first half was one of the most dominant Angels closer performances we've seen since K-Rod.  He followed it up with a fine, not great, second half, and thus far in spring he's been very unimpressive. I'm not saying he can't bounce back, but I'd much rather see Robert Stephenson be the go to guy in high leverage situations - 9th inning or otherwise. However, assuming he's not ready to start the season - or struggles with injury during - who's the guy?  We've seen Washington's teams close by committee before, with Gagne, Frank Francisco, and CJ Wilson sharing save opportunities before Neftali Feliz joined the team in 2010. Did Estevez's 2023 earn him the closer job this year? I kind of hope it didn't. There's too much talent in this group to be limited to traditional bullpen roles. I'd like to see Estevez, Stephenson, and Moore all get opportunities in the 9th.
    Rotational Problems?
    I will start this off by saying that, as a unit, the pitching has been incredible this spring, by Angels standards.  Whether it's the new coaching or the new players, they've been throwing more strikes and it's been great to see. Last year, despite winning the Cactus League, the Angels were bottom 10 in ERA and walked more batters than everyone but the White Sox and A's in the spring.  This year they've improved in both aspects, up to 17th in ERA and 22nd(!) in walks.  While it's not indicative of a top 10 rotation, it's a nice change of pace from the past. That being said, within the rotation I've had some concerns.
    Reid Detmers has had a good spring in terms of making hitters miss and getting ground balls instead of fly balls, however mistake pitches still haunt him.  Griffin Canning has looked excellent despite some control issues in a couple starts, but could be poised to make a huge jump this year.  Chase Silseth looks outstanding, I still truly believe he could turn into a 120 ERA+ starter this year if given the opportunity to do so.  Even Tyler Anderson has looked much better than he did last year, though time will tell with that one. 
    Patrick Sandoval, though, hasn't looked very good. It's sad, because he flashed so much potential in 2022, followed it up with a dominant WBC before a disappointing 2023 and a 10.29 ERA this spring.  Now, this is far from the end - Blake Snell posted a 5.62 ERA in spring last year and won the Cy Young. I bet Sandy will be very solid in our rotation this year, but it hurts to see this in terms of him becoming the ace it looked like he would become a couple years ago. A lot of his struggles seem rooted in getting behind in counts and getting frustrated with himself. Hopefully Barry Enright and Ron Washington can knock him out of that funk and get him into 2022 form again. Gotta root for the hometown kids. 
    As Washington said in a recent interview with Rhett Bollinger,  "Things can change where someone has to leave the rotation."  This leads me to my last question - 
    What Does Signing Blake Snell Do To The Angels Playoff Odds?
    Let me start off by saying this whole Snell situation is so very frustrating. If Heyman gets on a livestream and says "There's mutual interest between Snell and the Angels, but it's hard to tell if Arte is willing to spend" one more time I might delete Twitter. That being said, in this world we're gonna imagine Arte has a change of heart and the Angels sign Blake Snell. How much closer are we to the playoffs than we were without him?
    I think, honestly, quite a bit.  I'm very publicly a supporter of Blake Snell, but I see the qualms people have with signing him. Giving up the 2nd round pick would certainly hurt, especially since our farm system isn't very good, but you can only hope that a second round pick becomes Blake Snell.  Predictive stats and peripherals like Blake Snell more than results have even in his down years, and he's coming off a season where he won the ERA title by nearly 0.38 points, the biggest gap between #1 and #2 since 2007. 
    The Angels lost Ohtani, and watching the team this spring has done nothing but make me believe the offense can hold their own without him, but the rotation is gonna miss him.  Starting pitching is clearly the biggest hole this team has, and getting a clear top of the rotation arm fills that gap more than any other single player. We can throw 1 or 2 year prove it deals to players that used to be top of the line starters as much as we want, but to compete for a playoff spot in 2024 or even 2025, I think signing Snell now is the best chance we have.
  4. Like
    CartiHalos got a reaction from Chuck for a blog entry, My Takeaways from Spring So Far   
    With most of the major player reassignment done, the Angels Opening Day roster is beginning to take shape.  While a few questions still remain, I think I've seen enough to feel confident in posting my opinions here. I want to make it clear that I'm not a professional analyst, nor a professional hater. The things I'm talking about here are things I've been seeing and thinking all spring, and as much as I love the players the Angels have I'm an Angels fan above that.  Anywhere I see shortcomings or inconsistencies on the roster I'll comment on it.  With that said, let's talk about the roster:
    Too Many Angels In the Outfield?
    The entire Angels outfield has been absolutely stellar this Spring - Mike Trout (.694 OPS) has actually been the worst, but he remains Mike Trout.  Taylor Ward (.753 OPS) looks to have left field locked up, new signings Aaron Hicks (1.314 OPS) and Jake Marisnick (1.164 OPS) have been outstanding, and the 25-and-under crowd have impressed as well with Mickey Moniak (.894 OPS), Jo Adell (.704 OPS), and Jordyn Adams (.844 OPS).
    That's 7 outfielders who have a chance at the 4 or possibly 5 outfield spots on the MLB roster. Getting the obvious out of the way, Mike Trout and Taylor Ward will be running center and left, respectively. Mickey Moniak has no remaining options, and has played great since his call up last May, making him the obvious choice for a potential platoon with recent Major League Signee Aaron Hicks in right. On the other hand Jordyn Adams appears slated to, at the very least, begin the season as a Bee. There's your 4 outfielders, however here's where things get tricky.
    Jo Adell has no options left,  limiting the Angels choices to either A. Field him on the roster all year, B. Place him on waivers, or C. Try to find a trade partner for him. Option A seems most likely, bringing the total to 5 outfielders active for the Angels. In itself this isn't a problem, seeing as Trout will likely be getting a lot of looks at DH and Moniak is far better equipped to hit off righties. However, if we're fielding 5 outfielders, I'd almost prefer the 5th be Jake Marisnick.  He's been outstanding this spring, is better defensively than Adell as well as better on the basepaths.  Marisnick's 5 stolen bases lead the MLB (Adell is 4/4 in stolen base attempts, to be fair), and his defensive pedigree gives him value as both a defensive sub and a pinch runner, providing much needed versatility to an Angels bench that will likely consist of Matt Thaiss, Aaron Hicks, and Ehire Adrianza/Miguel Sano.
    Of course, I understand why Adell will likely be the 5th outfielder, as Marisnick is on a Minor League deal, so there's no harm no foul with him starting in Salt Lake while Adell makes the opening day roster. I just really hope we get to see if Marisnick can replicate this spring performance in the bigs at some point this year. 
    Who Gets The 4th Bench Spot?
    Another internal battle is the battle for the 6th infielder/4th bench spot.  It seems to have been cut down to Miguel Sano, Ehire Adrianza, and *maybe* Livan Soto. While Soto's performance should give him a real chance, I tend to believe he won't get the nod simply because he's younger and less experienced.
    Miguel Sano is incredibly fun to watch, however provides 0 value defensively, especially if Wash is trying to fit him in at 3rd on occasion. Adrianza provides familiarity for Washington from the Atlanta days and better positional versatility, albeit at a far lower offensive output than Sano. Adrianza's career high is a 102 wRC+, achieved in 2019 in Minnesota. His teammate, Miguel Sano, posted a 138 wRC+ in that same year, his best in a season with at least 100 games played. 
    In my opinion, the spot should go to Sano, especially with the availability of DH at bats.  Adrianza certainly provides value, but Rengifo, Drury, and Neto in the middle infield leaves less room for Adrianza to show it. Sano's role will likely be DHing, pinch hitting, and potentially covering first in case of Schanuel struggling, which I don't think he will. My only issue with this is it leaves Rengifo as the backup shortstop in case of Neto needing a day off, but here's to hoping that under Wash's guidance Rengifo can improve his shortstop defense to make that less of a problem. 
    Who's the Closer?
    Last year, Carlos Estevez's first half was one of the most dominant Angels closer performances we've seen since K-Rod.  He followed it up with a fine, not great, second half, and thus far in spring he's been very unimpressive. I'm not saying he can't bounce back, but I'd much rather see Robert Stephenson be the go to guy in high leverage situations - 9th inning or otherwise. However, assuming he's not ready to start the season - or struggles with injury during - who's the guy?  We've seen Washington's teams close by committee before, with Gagne, Frank Francisco, and CJ Wilson sharing save opportunities before Neftali Feliz joined the team in 2010. Did Estevez's 2023 earn him the closer job this year? I kind of hope it didn't. There's too much talent in this group to be limited to traditional bullpen roles. I'd like to see Estevez, Stephenson, and Moore all get opportunities in the 9th.
    Rotational Problems?
    I will start this off by saying that, as a unit, the pitching has been incredible this spring, by Angels standards.  Whether it's the new coaching or the new players, they've been throwing more strikes and it's been great to see. Last year, despite winning the Cactus League, the Angels were bottom 10 in ERA and walked more batters than everyone but the White Sox and A's in the spring.  This year they've improved in both aspects, up to 17th in ERA and 22nd(!) in walks.  While it's not indicative of a top 10 rotation, it's a nice change of pace from the past. That being said, within the rotation I've had some concerns.
    Reid Detmers has had a good spring in terms of making hitters miss and getting ground balls instead of fly balls, however mistake pitches still haunt him.  Griffin Canning has looked excellent despite some control issues in a couple starts, but could be poised to make a huge jump this year.  Chase Silseth looks outstanding, I still truly believe he could turn into a 120 ERA+ starter this year if given the opportunity to do so.  Even Tyler Anderson has looked much better than he did last year, though time will tell with that one. 
    Patrick Sandoval, though, hasn't looked very good. It's sad, because he flashed so much potential in 2022, followed it up with a dominant WBC before a disappointing 2023 and a 10.29 ERA this spring.  Now, this is far from the end - Blake Snell posted a 5.62 ERA in spring last year and won the Cy Young. I bet Sandy will be very solid in our rotation this year, but it hurts to see this in terms of him becoming the ace it looked like he would become a couple years ago. A lot of his struggles seem rooted in getting behind in counts and getting frustrated with himself. Hopefully Barry Enright and Ron Washington can knock him out of that funk and get him into 2022 form again. Gotta root for the hometown kids. 
    As Washington said in a recent interview with Rhett Bollinger,  "Things can change where someone has to leave the rotation."  This leads me to my last question - 
    What Does Signing Blake Snell Do To The Angels Playoff Odds?
    Let me start off by saying this whole Snell situation is so very frustrating. If Heyman gets on a livestream and says "There's mutual interest between Snell and the Angels, but it's hard to tell if Arte is willing to spend" one more time I might delete Twitter. That being said, in this world we're gonna imagine Arte has a change of heart and the Angels sign Blake Snell. How much closer are we to the playoffs than we were without him?
    I think, honestly, quite a bit.  I'm very publicly a supporter of Blake Snell, but I see the qualms people have with signing him. Giving up the 2nd round pick would certainly hurt, especially since our farm system isn't very good, but you can only hope that a second round pick becomes Blake Snell.  Predictive stats and peripherals like Blake Snell more than results have even in his down years, and he's coming off a season where he won the ERA title by nearly 0.38 points, the biggest gap between #1 and #2 since 2007. 
    The Angels lost Ohtani, and watching the team this spring has done nothing but make me believe the offense can hold their own without him, but the rotation is gonna miss him.  Starting pitching is clearly the biggest hole this team has, and getting a clear top of the rotation arm fills that gap more than any other single player. We can throw 1 or 2 year prove it deals to players that used to be top of the line starters as much as we want, but to compete for a playoff spot in 2024 or even 2025, I think signing Snell now is the best chance we have.
  5. Like
    CartiHalos got a reaction from Halo in Chicago for a blog entry, My 2024 Predictions   
    By @CartiHalos, AngelsWin.com Columnist
    With pitchers and catchers having reported, I like to think of the 2024 season as officially underway. While the angels won't play a game for another 9 days, the wheels of baseball are finally churning and as such, I'd like to give my predictions for the Angels and their players. While I'm not the most optimistic person in the world for this specific season, I think it's another season of Angels baseball and I'll never be too mad at getting to watch my Halos.
    Starting with team predictions...
    Record: 75-87, 4th in AL West
    As much as I wanted to put us as a sneaky 80-85 win team, it's not realistic for a team that only won 73 games last year and lost the MVP.  While there's plenty of reason's to assume we'll be better than last year - primarily the ridiculously bad injury luck in 2023, the return of Trout/Rendon, and the further development of the young core of O'Hoppe/Schanuel/Neto/Moniak. Add on top of all of that Ron Washington taking the helm and I could see us propelled into the 80 win area. However, I think that an already faltering rotation that lost it's ace and an offense that would have to make a big jump to be elite makes it hard to project us in that range.
    Miguel Sano Cracks the Opening Day Roster: For a while I thought we'd pick up Urshela or another infielder that could cover first if Schanuel has some growing pains. While still possible, I think we end up rolling with what we have and the slugger has an impressive spring, leading to a Opening Day Roster spot and *maybe* even an opening day start at DH. 
    We Enter 2025 MUCH more confident: While this isn't exactly a hot take, this prediction is mostly that we have multiple major breakouts (you'll see who I think does in the next section), and the moves we made this offseason are supplemented well by moves next offseason that make our roster far more complete and make the Angels a competitive team next year. 
    Now onto individual player predictions, with a few stipulations  
    - I'm gonna be *mostly* optimistic, it's more fun that way.
    - I'm predicting for the 26 players on the Opening Day Roster, projected by me.
    - There's a good chance that a team that performed to my predictions would win more than 75 games, but I'm trying to predict each player, optimistically, in a vacuum. 
    - No Injuries. Don't want to speak anything into existence.
     
    Catchers:
    C Logan O'Hoppe - .245 AVG, 31 HR, 74 RBI, 122 wRC+, 2.4 fWar
    O'Hoppe puts his name out there in a big way with a 30 homer season and improves defensively, but his plate discipline and framing are still areas for improvement.
    C Matt Thaiss - .220 AVG, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 93 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR
    Thaiss gets less time to shine than hid did last year, but performs about the same in limited opportunity.
     
    Infielders:
    1B Nolan Schanuel - .278 AVG, 16 HR, 55 RBI, 130 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR
    Schanuel's elite eye shines and his power comes through as he proves why he got called up so quickly.
    1B Miguel Sano - .208 AVG, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 101 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR
    Sano shows off his pop in limited time, but is ultimately a non factor. 
    1B/2B/3B Brandon Drury - .258 AVG, 25 HR, 89 RBI, 110 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR
    Drury builds on his impressive 2022 and 2023 and maybe even gets moved to a contender at the deadline.
    SS Zach Neto - .250 AVG, 20 HR, 58 RBI, 105 wRC+ 2.7 fWAR
    Neto makes a big jump from last year, and poises himself for a monster age-24 breakout 2025.
    3B Anthony Rendon - .252 AVG, 17 HR, 74 RBI, 115 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR
    This may come as a shock, but truthfully the last time Rendon was healthy and not absolutely outstanding was 2015. Assuming he isn't missing time, he could still very well put in some work for us.
    2B/SS/3B Luis Rengifo - .243 AVG, 16 HR, 55 RBI, 98 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR
    Rengifo's struggles against righties catches up to him, but he still provides value defensively through his versatility.
     
    Outfielders:
    LF Taylor Ward - .271 AVG, 19 HR, 68 RBI, 120 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR
    I'm predicting a huge return to form for Ward, after an outstanding 2022 and a 2023 that was solid before being cut short by an Alek Manoah fastball, I think he bounces back big in an offense that needs him to badly.
    CF Mike Trout - .268 AVG, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 157 wRC+, 5.5 fWAR
    Mike Trout reminds everyone who he is and why he's the superstar in Anaheim with a monster season, aided partially by the DH position being opened up for him to rest and avoid injury.
    RF Mickey Moniak - .262 AVG, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 106 wRC+ 1.3 fWAR
    Mickey comes down to earth compared to his electric 2023 first half, but superb defense and good hard hit stats make for another solid season.
    OF Aaron Hicks - .270 AVG, 6 HR, 30 RBI, 103 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR
    Hicks offensive stats are boosted because he'll get a lot of chances against lefties, but he still doesn't get enough opportunity to make a major impact. 
    OF Jo Adell - .225 AVG, 12 HR, 34 RBI, 94 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR
    Adell gets some big hits, but his plate discipline struggles and inconsistency still bleed through.
     
    Starting Pitchers:
    LHP Reid Detmers - 167 IP, 116 ERA+, 181 K, 3.78 FIP, 3.5 fWAR
    Detmers shines in a 5 man rotation, cuts back on mistake pitches en route to a career year.
    RHP Griffin Canning - 145.2 IP, 103 ERA+, 166 K, 4.24 FIP, 2.0 fWAR
    Canning nearly replicates his 2023 but at a higher volume.
    LHP Patrick Sandoval - 135 IP, 108 ERA+, 141 K, 3.92 FIP, 2.7 fWAR
    Sandy struggles a bit with his emotions on the mound, but a nice return to the solid #2/3 form we've seen in years past.
    LHP Tyler Anderson - 111 IP, 96 ERA+, 124 K, 4.60 FIP, 1.3 fWAR
    Anderson's struggles continue, but he still comes close to a league average season.
    RHP Chase Silseth - 155 IP, 127 ERA+, 166 K, 3.75 FIP, 4.4 fWAR
    Silseth is my top Angels breakout this year, proving he has real ability to not only be a starter, but a great one at that. 
     
    Bullpen:
    Carlos Estevez - 4.20 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 26 Saves.
    Robert Stephenson - 2.13 ERA, 1.93 FIP, 10 Saves.
    Matt Moore - 2.99 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 2 Saves
    Jose Soriano - 3.23 ERA, 3.46 FIP
    Luis Garcia - 4.66 ERA, 4.74 FIP
    Adam Cimber - 3.63 ERA, 3.80 FIP
    Jose Cisnero - 4.44 ERA, 4.23 FIP
    Jose Suarez - 3.79 ERA, 4.21 FIP
    The bullpen gets a review as a whole, should be the most improved position group, with the new additions pulling their weight and the returners (for the most part) improving. Could see Estevez, Moore, Garcia, Cimber, and Suarez all getting looks from contenders at the deadline.
    To be completely honest, while this is probably the least optimistic I've been at the start of a season in a while, I like this teams core and I can't wait to watch the new additions get to work. Can't wait for another season of Angels baseball! Go Halos!
  6. Like
    CartiHalos got a reaction from HaloOnFire for a blog entry, My 2024 Predictions   
    By @CartiHalos, AngelsWin.com Columnist
    With pitchers and catchers having reported, I like to think of the 2024 season as officially underway. While the angels won't play a game for another 9 days, the wheels of baseball are finally churning and as such, I'd like to give my predictions for the Angels and their players. While I'm not the most optimistic person in the world for this specific season, I think it's another season of Angels baseball and I'll never be too mad at getting to watch my Halos.
    Starting with team predictions...
    Record: 75-87, 4th in AL West
    As much as I wanted to put us as a sneaky 80-85 win team, it's not realistic for a team that only won 73 games last year and lost the MVP.  While there's plenty of reason's to assume we'll be better than last year - primarily the ridiculously bad injury luck in 2023, the return of Trout/Rendon, and the further development of the young core of O'Hoppe/Schanuel/Neto/Moniak. Add on top of all of that Ron Washington taking the helm and I could see us propelled into the 80 win area. However, I think that an already faltering rotation that lost it's ace and an offense that would have to make a big jump to be elite makes it hard to project us in that range.
    Miguel Sano Cracks the Opening Day Roster: For a while I thought we'd pick up Urshela or another infielder that could cover first if Schanuel has some growing pains. While still possible, I think we end up rolling with what we have and the slugger has an impressive spring, leading to a Opening Day Roster spot and *maybe* even an opening day start at DH. 
    We Enter 2025 MUCH more confident: While this isn't exactly a hot take, this prediction is mostly that we have multiple major breakouts (you'll see who I think does in the next section), and the moves we made this offseason are supplemented well by moves next offseason that make our roster far more complete and make the Angels a competitive team next year. 
    Now onto individual player predictions, with a few stipulations  
    - I'm gonna be *mostly* optimistic, it's more fun that way.
    - I'm predicting for the 26 players on the Opening Day Roster, projected by me.
    - There's a good chance that a team that performed to my predictions would win more than 75 games, but I'm trying to predict each player, optimistically, in a vacuum. 
    - No Injuries. Don't want to speak anything into existence.
     
    Catchers:
    C Logan O'Hoppe - .245 AVG, 31 HR, 74 RBI, 122 wRC+, 2.4 fWar
    O'Hoppe puts his name out there in a big way with a 30 homer season and improves defensively, but his plate discipline and framing are still areas for improvement.
    C Matt Thaiss - .220 AVG, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 93 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR
    Thaiss gets less time to shine than hid did last year, but performs about the same in limited opportunity.
     
    Infielders:
    1B Nolan Schanuel - .278 AVG, 16 HR, 55 RBI, 130 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR
    Schanuel's elite eye shines and his power comes through as he proves why he got called up so quickly.
    1B Miguel Sano - .208 AVG, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 101 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR
    Sano shows off his pop in limited time, but is ultimately a non factor. 
    1B/2B/3B Brandon Drury - .258 AVG, 25 HR, 89 RBI, 110 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR
    Drury builds on his impressive 2022 and 2023 and maybe even gets moved to a contender at the deadline.
    SS Zach Neto - .250 AVG, 20 HR, 58 RBI, 105 wRC+ 2.7 fWAR
    Neto makes a big jump from last year, and poises himself for a monster age-24 breakout 2025.
    3B Anthony Rendon - .252 AVG, 17 HR, 74 RBI, 115 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR
    This may come as a shock, but truthfully the last time Rendon was healthy and not absolutely outstanding was 2015. Assuming he isn't missing time, he could still very well put in some work for us.
    2B/SS/3B Luis Rengifo - .243 AVG, 16 HR, 55 RBI, 98 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR
    Rengifo's struggles against righties catches up to him, but he still provides value defensively through his versatility.
     
    Outfielders:
    LF Taylor Ward - .271 AVG, 19 HR, 68 RBI, 120 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR
    I'm predicting a huge return to form for Ward, after an outstanding 2022 and a 2023 that was solid before being cut short by an Alek Manoah fastball, I think he bounces back big in an offense that needs him to badly.
    CF Mike Trout - .268 AVG, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 157 wRC+, 5.5 fWAR
    Mike Trout reminds everyone who he is and why he's the superstar in Anaheim with a monster season, aided partially by the DH position being opened up for him to rest and avoid injury.
    RF Mickey Moniak - .262 AVG, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 106 wRC+ 1.3 fWAR
    Mickey comes down to earth compared to his electric 2023 first half, but superb defense and good hard hit stats make for another solid season.
    OF Aaron Hicks - .270 AVG, 6 HR, 30 RBI, 103 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR
    Hicks offensive stats are boosted because he'll get a lot of chances against lefties, but he still doesn't get enough opportunity to make a major impact. 
    OF Jo Adell - .225 AVG, 12 HR, 34 RBI, 94 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR
    Adell gets some big hits, but his plate discipline struggles and inconsistency still bleed through.
     
    Starting Pitchers:
    LHP Reid Detmers - 167 IP, 116 ERA+, 181 K, 3.78 FIP, 3.5 fWAR
    Detmers shines in a 5 man rotation, cuts back on mistake pitches en route to a career year.
    RHP Griffin Canning - 145.2 IP, 103 ERA+, 166 K, 4.24 FIP, 2.0 fWAR
    Canning nearly replicates his 2023 but at a higher volume.
    LHP Patrick Sandoval - 135 IP, 108 ERA+, 141 K, 3.92 FIP, 2.7 fWAR
    Sandy struggles a bit with his emotions on the mound, but a nice return to the solid #2/3 form we've seen in years past.
    LHP Tyler Anderson - 111 IP, 96 ERA+, 124 K, 4.60 FIP, 1.3 fWAR
    Anderson's struggles continue, but he still comes close to a league average season.
    RHP Chase Silseth - 155 IP, 127 ERA+, 166 K, 3.75 FIP, 4.4 fWAR
    Silseth is my top Angels breakout this year, proving he has real ability to not only be a starter, but a great one at that. 
     
    Bullpen:
    Carlos Estevez - 4.20 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 26 Saves.
    Robert Stephenson - 2.13 ERA, 1.93 FIP, 10 Saves.
    Matt Moore - 2.99 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 2 Saves
    Jose Soriano - 3.23 ERA, 3.46 FIP
    Luis Garcia - 4.66 ERA, 4.74 FIP
    Adam Cimber - 3.63 ERA, 3.80 FIP
    Jose Cisnero - 4.44 ERA, 4.23 FIP
    Jose Suarez - 3.79 ERA, 4.21 FIP
    The bullpen gets a review as a whole, should be the most improved position group, with the new additions pulling their weight and the returners (for the most part) improving. Could see Estevez, Moore, Garcia, Cimber, and Suarez all getting looks from contenders at the deadline.
    To be completely honest, while this is probably the least optimistic I've been at the start of a season in a while, I like this teams core and I can't wait to watch the new additions get to work. Can't wait for another season of Angels baseball! Go Halos!
  7. Like
    CartiHalos reacted to AngelsWin.com for a blog entry, 2024 Los Angeles Angels Player Predictions, Part One: The Hitters   
    By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer
    It is probably too early for this, but I'm bored and what else are we going to discuss? Here's what I expect to see from the current team so far - at least the regulars. My predictions tend to be what I see as reasonable optimism, although this is partially in contrast to the everything-went-wrong fiasco that was the 2023 season. When considering playing time and injury, I'm treating each player individually, that is, in a vacuum; chances are, more games will be missed by some of the starters. 
    C LOGAN O'HOPPE (24)
    2023 Stats: 51 games, .236/.296/.500, 14 HR, 113 wRC+, 0.2 WAR
    There's a before and after for O'Hoppe. Before his injury, he hit .283/.339/.547 with a 137 wRC+ in 16 games; after he hit .217/.279/.481 with a 102 wRC+ in 35 games. But even that can be split up:  .145/.217/.291 with a 35 wRC+ in his first 15 games back, and .270/.325/.622 with a 152 wRC+ in his last 20 games.
    So who is the "real" Logan O'Hoppe? I'm pretty bullish on him and think he's going to be one of the ten or so best catchers in baseball as soon as 2024. My lone complaint is that I'd like to see him take more walks. For his first few years in the minors (2018-21), his BB% was in the 7-8% range; in 2022, it doubled to 15.7% (70 walks in 104 games). In the majors so far, it has been back down to 7.4%. Presumably he'll eventually be somewhere in-between.
    Anyhow, in 2023 the top two catchers by WAR were William Contreras (5.4) and Adley Rutschman (5.1), followed by four in the 4.1 to 4.7 range. After that there's a drop, with nine in the 2.0 to 2.8 range. My guess is that O'Hoppe splits the difference between two groups and finishes in the 3-4ish range, with 4-5 upside in peak years. But even if he becomes more of a 2-3 WAR player, he has a chance to become the best all-time Angels catcher by WAR before he reaches free agency (to be fair, that isn't saying much, with Bob Boone being the all-time leader with 13.1 WAR).
    2024 Prediction: 113 games, .263/.337/.518, 23 HR, 128 wRC+, 3.1 WAR
    1B NOLAN SCHANUEL (22)
    2023 Stats: 29 games, .275/.402/.330, 112 wRC+, 0.1 WAR
    Schanuel is one of the most unusual hitters in baseball. He walks a ton, but has virtually no power (1 HR, 3 2B in 30 hits last year), mainly due to an over-cutting swing that generates a lot of ground balls. I think he'll eventually develop at least low-average power (25-30 2B, 10-15 HR) to go along with a .290+ BA and 100+ walks. In other words, a poor man's Wade Boggs, though won't have the benefit of the Green Monster to bounce doubles off of. He might be slated to start the year in AAA, but I think will be the starting first baseman well before the All-Star break. With that OBP, he could end up being the most unconventional lead-off man the Angels have had since Brian Downing.
    2024 Prediction: 110 games, .284/.407/.390, 7 HR, 124 wRC+, 2.0 WAR
    2B LUIS RENGIFO (27)
    2023: 126 games, .264/.339/.444, 16 HR, 114 wRC+, 1.9 WAR
    Of all the players that I was concerned might be traded this offseason, Rengifo topped the list for me. He seemed to have a micro-breakthrough in the second half of 2022, hitting .267/.290/.455. After a slow start in 2023 (.219/.312/.326 in the first half), he exploded in the second half (.318/.374/.587). Now it could be that Rengifo is just a slow starter, and certainly I don't expect him to reach those numbers over a full season, but...I think he's going to take a big step forward in 2024 and, like O'Hoppe, be in the 5-10ish range for his position. But he's a guy to watch early on: if he starts strong, he could be even better than I'm predicting.
    2024 Prediction: 143 games, .274/.348/.487, 23 HR, 126 wRC+, 3.4 WAR
    SS ZACH NETO (23)
    2023: 84 games, .225/.308/.377, 9 HR, 89 wRC+, 1.1 WAR
    A bright spot early on, Neto impressed with his all-out play. He really seems to embody the notion of "spark-plug" - a guy who just brings life to the team, in the batter's box, on the base paths and, most of all, in the field where he was stellar. Some have compared him to Dustin Pedroia and David Eckstein; I think, when he finally reaches his potential, he'll be somewhere in-between the two. For next year, I expect better numbers than 2023, if only because his season will (hopefully) not be interrupted by a long injury layover, but Neto also seems to be the type of player who will miss time, due to his hard play. 
    2024 Prediction: 133 games, .267/.328/.422, 14 HR, 105 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
    3B ANTHONY RENDON (34)
    2023: 43 games, .236/.361/.318, 95 wRC+, 0.2 WAR
    What a disaster. Sorry, homers, but you're not a "hater" if you simply point out the obvious: Rendon hasn't been able to stay on the field the last three years (148 games all told), and when he has he hasn't been good. The pattern seems to be: start rusty and slow, get going and hot, get hurt and miss more time than expected, rinse and repeat. The thin slivers of hope are that A) He hasn't played much over the last four seasons, so has less wear-and-tear than a 33-34 year old normally has; and B) he has hit well once he throws off the rust. So maybe he has something left in the tank, but...Anyhow, I'll split the difference between "homerish optimism" and "more of the same."
    2024 Prediction: 100 games, .271/.374/.420, 15 HR, 118 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
    LF TAYLOR WARD (30)
    2023: 97 games, .253/.335/.421, 14 HR, 107 wRC+, 1.5 WAR
    For about a month and change in 2022, Taylor Ward looked like a breakthrough superstar. Then he crashed into a wall and was out for awhile. When he came back he didn't look the same, though gradually heated up and finished the year strong. Going into 2023, I had a lot of hope that he had had a legit breakthrough, but Ward's 2023 was another disappointment among many for the Angels, and just as he seemed to be finding his groove (a 197 wRC+ in his last 14 games), he was hit in the face by a 92-mph Alex Manoah sinker. It is anyone's guess how he'll come back. There's a non-zero chance that he will never comfortably stand in a batter's box again and/or that his vision will be compromised. As far as I know, there's been little news about his recovery other than the usual baseballspeak. He could put it all together and be the star player he's flashed for parts of the last two years, or end up as a charity-case bench player. To quote Fox Mulder, I want to believe.
    2024 Prediction: 118 games, .274/.357/.491, 20 HR, 128 wRC+, 2.8 WAR
    CF MIKE TROUT (32)
    2023: 82 games, .263/.367/.490, 18 HR, 134 wRC+, 3.0 WAR
    For the first month of 2023, Trout looked like Trout, hitting .320/.408/.612 with a 176 wRC+ through his first 26 games. Then for the next six weeks or so, he went through the worst such span of time of his career, hitting .199/.318/.351 (85 wRC+) from April 30 to June 16. He finally seemed to shake it off, hitting .340/.441/.680 (203 wRC+). June 17 until July 3 when he...broke his hand on a contact-less swing?! Only the Angels and, unfortunately, only Trout. After putting together what was arguably the best first eight full seasons in baseball history, Trout has been a shell of his former self the last four years, mostly due to a string of injuries that has seen him miss over half of all Angels games over the last three seasons.  Or to put it another way, from 2012-19 he was (70.6 WAR) was 50% better than the next guy (Buster Posey with 47.0 WAR); from 2020-23, he has been the 29th best player, producing 58% (13.8 WAR) of the leader during that span (Aaron Judge with 23.6 WAR)
    I suppose the silver lining is that each injury has been different and mostly random; so it isn't like he has a bad knee or some other chronic injury (well, aside for that weird back condition). He just seems to have a knack for injury and, quite frankly, there's no reason to expect that to change. Still, there's also no reason to think that with a player of his talent and due to the freakish nature of his injuries, he can't put together a few reasonably health seasons in, if not 2012-19 form, something not far from it. I do think he bounces back, but it will be at a slightly lower level than what we've seen in his prime.
    2024 Prediction: 128 games, .281/.393/.577, 34 HR, 163 wRC+, 6.5 WAR
    RF JO ADELL (25)
    2023: 17 games, .207/.258/.448, 86 wRC+, 0.2 WAR
    The good news is that Adell seemed to improve in the ways that he needed to improve - he took more walks and played better defense. The bad news is that it was in AAA. More bad news is that, like everyone else, he got hurt and then only played 17 games in Anaheim. At 25 in April, he's no longer young; but he also isn't old. To some extent there's still the sense that Adell will either be a star or a bust, but I think more likely is that he's somewhere in-between, maybe something like Hunter Renfroe. He seems to really want it and will keep working to improve his game. But it is really coming down to a place where its now or never. 
    2024 Prediction: 110 games, .252/.301/.493, 23 HR, 114 wRC+, 1.8 WAR
    DH BRANDON DRURY (31)
    2023: 125 games, .262/.306/.497, 26 HR, 114 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
    Drury was one of the only bright spots for the Angels, and probably the only acquisition that actually turned out as hoped. He pretty much continued where he left off from 2022; now, averaging 2.8 WAR over the last two seasons, he's pretty much the definition of "quality regular." What you see is what you get. If the Angels are out of it in July, he's a likely trade candidate.
    2024 Prediction: 130 games, .260/.315/.490, 27 HR, 118 wRC+, 2.0 WAR
    OF MICKEY MONIAK (26)
    2023: 85 games, .280/.307/.495, 14 HR, 114 wRC+, 1.5 WAR
    Moniak seemed like he had finally found his first round potential in the first half, but there was a lingering concerning as he didn't walk. At all. He finished the year with an ungainly 9 walks to 113 strikeouts, which doesn't bode well for the future. But even after his midseason slump, he started hitting again; so he seems like a feast-or-famine guy, who will get hot for spells. On paper, he looks like a good platoon player or 4th outfielder, but this is a bit tricky with such a streaky player. But he'll be in the mix with the rest of the questionable cast of characters that will be the Angels outfield, and will get playing time. That said, he's the only player among the ten on this list that I predict will be worse in 2024 than in 2023.
    2024 Prediction: 90 games, .250/.280/.442, 12 HR, 100 wRC+, 0.8 WAR
  8. Like
    CartiHalos got a reaction from Chuck for a blog entry, The Zach Plesac Experiment   
    Around 10 PM on December 30th, Robert Murray broke the Angels 4th MLB roster transaction of the offseason, 28 year old right hander Zach Plesac.  Plesac wasn't a player very high on many people's radars - a large amount of his 2023 season was spent in AAA - which makes giving him a Major League contract even more perplexing.  Clearly, though, the Angels see something in him. Any baseball fan could look at his 7.59 ERA and label him as a lost cause, but the Angels saw something that they think could provide value in 2024.  Let's take a deeper look into who Plesac is and what they could have seen.
    First off, the exact contract details haven't been revealed yet, but we can make a pretty educated guess based on Plesac's recent transaction history.  He was DFA'd on June 11th and cleared waivers, meaning no team wanted him for his $2.95M salary.  We can assume if the Angels wouldn't take that chance in June, they wouldn't give him that (or more), now. The minimum is $720K, meaning that Plesac's deal is more than likely between $720K and $2.95M a year.  If I was personally guessing, I would assume it's a 1 year deal worth something like $1.5 million.  Also, the term Major League deal doesn't mean he's tied to the bigs - he has 2 option years left so if he doesn't make a strong impression I would guess he starts in Salt Lake.
    Diving into Plesac's stats, he hasn't been the worst pitcher in baseball over his career, far from it.  Since 2018, he has an above average ERA+, higher than that of former Angels Lucas Giolito, Andrew Heaney, and Alex Cobb. His 2020, although it was shortened, was exceptional, putting up a 196 ERA+ and 3.39 FIP across 55.1 innings. His 2019 was more complete and still respectable, with a 124 ERA+ over 115.2 innings.
    His peripherals show both positives and negatives in his profile. He does a great job controlling the walk (terrible 2023 included), and he gets lots of swings on pitches outside of the zone.  The problem areas are, well, everywhere else. His best pitches are his off speed and breaking stuff, but his fastball - which he throws 40% of the time - isn't effective at all in terms of velocity or spin.  This leads to 1) lots of hard contact, 2) difficulty finishing off batters, and 3) Zach getting frustrated.  
    Starting with contact, even at his best in 2020 Plesac's fastball was below average, leading to a 17th percentile finish in Barrel%. In his worse years, 2021-2023, he consistently finished at the bottom of the league in both Barrel% and Hard Hit%.  This has translated to 45 home runs allowed over the last 3 seasons,  in the top third of the league despite only throwing 21 innings in 2023. 
    The biggest missing piece for Plesac seems to be his lack of K's. As stated before, he gets lots of chases out of the zone because of his solid breaking stuff. However, his fastball holds him back from becoming a high-volume strikeout pitcher. He's been near the bottom of the league in K% and Whiff% every year of his career except one - 2020.  It was the best year for his fastball (still not great), and his only above average year in getting strikeouts, which I don't think is a coincidence.  If I had to guess this is the key the Angels think they see - if they can get him to even a league average fastball he could be a solid rotation piece. 
    Finally, his off the field stuff. Plesac's stellar 2020 was cut short because he was optioned by the Guardians after breaking curfew and violating Covid-19 regulations. In 2022 he broke his thumb punching the pitching mound, perhaps only surpassable in stupidity by when he broke his thumb in 2021 by "aggressively ripping off his shirt."  It seems like mostly short outbursts and a stupid decision during quarantine, but it's something to watch.
    I think for the financial risk, this deal is nothing to worry about. I've seen people upset that it was a Major League deal, but I assume his role will be Triple-A depth starter and the type of contract was more of a tactic to get him to sign. The Angels process of  "low risk, high reward" applies here, but I'll add that given the track record of Angels pitching development, and Plesac's recent performance, I'll temper my expectations on seeing that reward come to fruition. We'll see what Barry Enright and the new staff have in store for him come springtime.
     
     
     
     
  9. Like
    CartiHalos got a reaction from TheQuietBear for a blog entry, The Zach Plesac Experiment   
    Around 10 PM on December 30th, Robert Murray broke the Angels 4th MLB roster transaction of the offseason, 28 year old right hander Zach Plesac.  Plesac wasn't a player very high on many people's radars - a large amount of his 2023 season was spent in AAA - which makes giving him a Major League contract even more perplexing.  Clearly, though, the Angels see something in him. Any baseball fan could look at his 7.59 ERA and label him as a lost cause, but the Angels saw something that they think could provide value in 2024.  Let's take a deeper look into who Plesac is and what they could have seen.
    First off, the exact contract details haven't been revealed yet, but we can make a pretty educated guess based on Plesac's recent transaction history.  He was DFA'd on June 11th and cleared waivers, meaning no team wanted him for his $2.95M salary.  We can assume if the Angels wouldn't take that chance in June, they wouldn't give him that (or more), now. The minimum is $720K, meaning that Plesac's deal is more than likely between $720K and $2.95M a year.  If I was personally guessing, I would assume it's a 1 year deal worth something like $1.5 million.  Also, the term Major League deal doesn't mean he's tied to the bigs - he has 2 option years left so if he doesn't make a strong impression I would guess he starts in Salt Lake.
    Diving into Plesac's stats, he hasn't been the worst pitcher in baseball over his career, far from it.  Since 2018, he has an above average ERA+, higher than that of former Angels Lucas Giolito, Andrew Heaney, and Alex Cobb. His 2020, although it was shortened, was exceptional, putting up a 196 ERA+ and 3.39 FIP across 55.1 innings. His 2019 was more complete and still respectable, with a 124 ERA+ over 115.2 innings.
    His peripherals show both positives and negatives in his profile. He does a great job controlling the walk (terrible 2023 included), and he gets lots of swings on pitches outside of the zone.  The problem areas are, well, everywhere else. His best pitches are his off speed and breaking stuff, but his fastball - which he throws 40% of the time - isn't effective at all in terms of velocity or spin.  This leads to 1) lots of hard contact, 2) difficulty finishing off batters, and 3) Zach getting frustrated.  
    Starting with contact, even at his best in 2020 Plesac's fastball was below average, leading to a 17th percentile finish in Barrel%. In his worse years, 2021-2023, he consistently finished at the bottom of the league in both Barrel% and Hard Hit%.  This has translated to 45 home runs allowed over the last 3 seasons,  in the top third of the league despite only throwing 21 innings in 2023. 
    The biggest missing piece for Plesac seems to be his lack of K's. As stated before, he gets lots of chases out of the zone because of his solid breaking stuff. However, his fastball holds him back from becoming a high-volume strikeout pitcher. He's been near the bottom of the league in K% and Whiff% every year of his career except one - 2020.  It was the best year for his fastball (still not great), and his only above average year in getting strikeouts, which I don't think is a coincidence.  If I had to guess this is the key the Angels think they see - if they can get him to even a league average fastball he could be a solid rotation piece. 
    Finally, his off the field stuff. Plesac's stellar 2020 was cut short because he was optioned by the Guardians after breaking curfew and violating Covid-19 regulations. In 2022 he broke his thumb punching the pitching mound, perhaps only surpassable in stupidity by when he broke his thumb in 2021 by "aggressively ripping off his shirt."  It seems like mostly short outbursts and a stupid decision during quarantine, but it's something to watch.
    I think for the financial risk, this deal is nothing to worry about. I've seen people upset that it was a Major League deal, but I assume his role will be Triple-A depth starter and the type of contract was more of a tactic to get him to sign. The Angels process of  "low risk, high reward" applies here, but I'll add that given the track record of Angels pitching development, and Plesac's recent performance, I'll temper my expectations on seeing that reward come to fruition. We'll see what Barry Enright and the new staff have in store for him come springtime.
     
     
     
     
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