Around 10 PM on December 30th, Robert Murray broke the Angels 4th MLB roster transaction of the offseason, 28 year old right hander Zach Plesac.  Plesac wasn't a player very high on many people's radars - a large amount of his 2023 season was spent in AAA - which makes giving him a Major League contract even more perplexing.  Clearly, though, the Angels see something in him. Any baseball fan could look at his 7.59 ERA and label him as a lost cause, but the Angels saw something that they think could provide value in 2024.  Let's take a deeper look into who Plesac is and what they could have seen.

First off, the exact contract details haven't been revealed yet, but we can make a pretty educated guess based on Plesac's recent transaction history.  He was DFA'd on June 11th and cleared waivers, meaning no team wanted him for his $2.95M salary.  We can assume if the Angels wouldn't take that chance in June, they wouldn't give him that (or more), now. The minimum is $720K, meaning that Plesac's deal is more than likely between $720K and $2.95M a year.  If I was personally guessing, I would assume it's a 1 year deal worth something like $1.5 million.  Also, the term Major League deal doesn't mean he's tied to the bigs - he has 2 option years left so if he doesn't make a strong impression I would guess he starts in Salt Lake.

Diving into Plesac's stats, he hasn't been the worst pitcher in baseball over his career, far from it.  Since 2018, he has an above average ERA+, higher than that of former Angels Lucas Giolito, Andrew Heaney, and Alex Cobb. His 2020, although it was shortened, was exceptional, putting up a 196 ERA+ and 3.39 FIP across 55.1 innings. His 2019 was more complete and still respectable, with a 124 ERA+ over 115.2 innings.

His peripherals show both positives and negatives in his profile. He does a great job controlling the walk (terrible 2023 included), and he gets lots of swings on pitches outside of the zone.  The problem areas are, well, everywhere else. His best pitches are his off speed and breaking stuff, but his fastball - which he throws 40% of the time - isn't effective at all in terms of velocity or spin.  This leads to 1) lots of hard contact, 2) difficulty finishing off batters, and 3) Zach getting frustrated.  

Starting with contact, even at his best in 2020 Plesac's fastball was below average, leading to a 17th percentile finish in Barrel%. In his worse years, 2021-2023, he consistently finished at the bottom of the league in both Barrel% and Hard Hit%.  This has translated to 45 home runs allowed over the last 3 seasons,  in the top third of the league despite only throwing 21 innings in 2023. 

The biggest missing piece for Plesac seems to be his lack of K's. As stated before, he gets lots of chases out of the zone because of his solid breaking stuff. However, his fastball holds him back from becoming a high-volume strikeout pitcher. He's been near the bottom of the league in K% and Whiff% every year of his career except one - 2020.  It was the best year for his fastball (still not great), and his only above average year in getting strikeouts, which I don't think is a coincidence.  If I had to guess this is the key the Angels think they see - if they can get him to even a league average fastball he could be a solid rotation piece. 

Finally, his off the field stuff. Plesac's stellar 2020 was cut short because he was optioned by the Guardians after breaking curfew and violating Covid-19 regulations. In 2022 he broke his thumb punching the pitching mound, perhaps only surpassable in stupidity by when he broke his thumb in 2021 by "aggressively ripping off his shirt."  It seems like mostly short outbursts and a stupid decision during quarantine, but it's something to watch.

I think for the financial risk, this deal is nothing to worry about. I've seen people upset that it was a Major League deal, but I assume his role will be Triple-A depth starter and the type of contract was more of a tactic to get him to sign. The Angels process of  "low risk, high reward" applies here, but I'll add that given the track record of Angels pitching development, and Plesac's recent performance, I'll temper my expectations on seeing that reward come to fruition. We'll see what Barry Enright and the new staff have in store for him come springtime.