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HaloInked4Life

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    HaloInked4Life reacted to Jeff Fletcher in Team has gotten worse?   
    They have done exactly what Eppler said they were doing. 
    They made as many small short term improvements as they could to give themselves a chance at the playoffs this year, while sacrificing none of the farm system and taking on no large financial commitments. 
    They have a chance at 90 wins this year, and next year the farm system will be even better. Remember, an improving farm system helps you in 3 ways: the players play for you, they save you money to spend on established players, they give you capital to spend to trade for other players. A good farm system is the only way to have an extended window of success, so they’ve been operating around that. It’s like having half the store open while you’re doing renovations, as opposed to closing the whole place (tanking).
    Next year’s FA’s include OC natives Gerrit Cole and Nolan Arenado. 
     
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    HaloInked4Life reacted to Inside Pitch in Team has gotten worse?   
    The parts that remain from last year ...  Trout (10.2), Ohtani (3.9), Upton (3.8), Simmons (6.2), Cozart (0.1 224 ABs), (Fletcher 2.0), (Albatross 0.5) Calhoun (0.7)
    The parts they removed from last yr ....  Marte (-0.4), Valbuena (-0.9), Kowart (-1.0), Maldonado (0.5 both teams), 
    The parts they have added this year ....  Lucroy (1.9), Bour (1.0), LaStella (0.2), K Smith (0.7)  Projected fWAR 2019.
    On paper.... they are better.   On paper, Fangraphs projects the Angels position players to combine for the third best fWAR in MLB at 30.1 behind Boston 31.7, and the Dodgers 30.4.  https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1
     
    Mind you that includes defense so it's overvaluing Cozart and nearly 1/3 of that is due to Trout, but again -- this is a purely "on paper" analysis by a completely impartial party.  So, it's not "yes man" homerism, it's not "Aw.com brainwashing", it's a purely analytical look at what the Angels position players could amount to...   On Paper, they project well...  and this is pretty much excluding all the minor league guys who could potentially come up and help.
    This is the actual issue.   
    Nobody knows what they will get out of the pen -- and all the primary reason why they could all be awful is the same reason they could all surprise and be good -- reliever volatility.  Allen is a name and had a track record but he's also shown signs of decline (the velocity issues).   The best thing that can be said about the back end of the rotation is that it likely has a high floor, but there is potential for catastrophe there.   The upside -- Canning and Suarez.   There is potential upside with the farm, but those aren't safe bets.  Heaney and Skaggs at worst are solid mid rotation guys but using the same criteria as above -- the Angels pitching staff projects as the the 9th best unit in the AL, in an amazing three way tie with the Athletics, and the Rangers at 10.0 fWAR.
    So do you believe one and shit on the other -- and if so, which one do you buy and which one do you punt on.   Purely based on probability -- there are larger more complete track records with the position players and because of the nature of pitching (RP), and injury history significantly more potential for boon or bust on the mound.
     
    The offense is lopsided but hardly a disaster -- at least the data doesn't support your opinion.   Taking the pessimistic approach with every possible position is as silly as going the other way and assuming everyone will improve.  Calhoun was a disaster last year -- Cozart was injured and bad.   But there is more there than you are giving them credit for and even the Red Sox ran out three positions that combined for negative WARs last year (C, 2B, 3B).
    Right now...  Fangraphs has them as an 85 win team.  Last year they had them as an 82 win team on opening day.   It's a projection so it should be taken with a grain of salt but on paper -- they have improved.   85 wins projects to them missing the playoffs.  The Rays are sitting on 86 wins.    https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings   So, they are in the conversation at least.
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    HaloInked4Life reacted to Stradling in Team has gotten worse?   
    But no we haven’t gotten worse.  Kole won’t be the worst player in baseball for two months.  Upton will be better with RISP.  More at bats from Ohtani.   No Marte, Cowart or Valbuena.  Lucroy will be better than Maldonado. More certainty for the #5 starter.   Heaney and Skaggs another year removed from TJ surgery.  Look at Skaggs stats after his first 19 starts last year.  A ton of hard throwers in the pen and a new pitching coach who has worked wonders with some hard throwers in Houston.   We also may not be done yet.   
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    HaloInked4Life reacted to Docwaukee in The Eppler way?   
    btw, there are going to end up being a total of 7 deals of 4yrs or more this year.  Corbin, Eovaldi are done.  Harper, Machado, Pollack, Kimbrel and Keuchel are left and I'm not convinced that Keuchel and Pollock are going to get 4+.  Most likely, but it's not guaranteed at this point.  
    On top of that, there are another 7 guys who have gotten 3 year deals.  there are probably 2-3 more that are going to get 3 years.  that's a total of 15 or so players with deals of 3 years or more.  About one for every other team.  
    Everything else is a 2, 1 or minor league deal for the other 200 free agents out there.  
    do you know why it's unusual that Eppler is handing out so many one year deals?  Because it's highly unusual that a team with this many holes to fill would want to try to compete or that they would spend money.  Most of the time teams will have guys from the farm taking a bunch of those spots or just sit on their hands.  
    People are mistaking/confusing the ancillary benefit that the Angels have in inking these one year deals with the intent.  The intent of doing this is that they want to win.  Just like the intent of pursing Corbin, Eovaldi, Happ, Ramos and others is to win.  The ancillary benefit of 1yrs deals is two fold.  You can trade them if they're performing or you can bag them and have that money free for next year if they don't. 
    The strategy is the make the team better now and in the long term.  If there's a player warranting a long term deal next off season and Eppler feels he fits that criteria then he won't hesitate to sign him.  If someone can tell me where we've missed that opportunity this off season, I would love to hear it.    
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