SigBaby

Woops 2024 projection

I built a model to project pitching wOBA for figuring out who to pick in fantasy baseball last year (pitching is more difficult to project than hitting for fantasy baseball). The model outperforms simply using the previous years' xwOBA to project the current season. Just figured I'd share it here in case anyone is interested. It did pretty well for me last year - identified Justin Steele and Kyle Bradish for me and I went 17-4-2 and won the championship (subtle brag). We'll see how it does this year.

As far as pitchers it suggests the Angels might benefit in targeting, Domingo German is an interesting projection and is pretty much the only guy in the top 30 projected starters who would be reasonable to acquire (he seems to have personal issues, but who doesn't). Make of it what you will

woba_23_predictions.csv

15 minutes ago, Angels_Fan said:

Jon Gray pls

Jon Gray would be awesome. I have a feeling he would be filthy outside of Coors

37 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Pujols was 34, ya mook. 

So you believe there is no other viable way to sufficiently improve the rotation other than paying the most expensive player on the market coming off a career year? 

15 hours ago, redoctober2002 said:

Completely agree. It's not very often you get a guy at Cole's level in free agency, the closest comparable is probably Scherzer back in 2015. The past 4 years Eppler has been building the farm and signing stop gaps, eventually risks have to be taken and the front office needs to go into win now mode while the best player in baseball is in his prime.

Except that Nationals team was already stacked without Scherzer. We are a borderline playoff team with Cole and cannot afford to miss playoffs while putting our future spending into one basket. I like Cole and I anticipate him being a top pitcher at least for the next couple seasons, but how can people be so quick to forget how much the Pujols contract has hindered this team? Say for some reason (injury or reduced effectiveness) Cole doesn't pan, this team will be 100% sunk for the foreseeable future and that's a lot to bet on one player. 

12 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I think the key question is - will Arte spend enough that he'll go over the luxury tax limit for a year or two, or does he treat the LT limit as a "hard" cap?

If he treats it as a hard cap, then assuming Calhoun's option is declined, we probably have up to 50mil or so to spend, after arbitration projections.

*IF* we sign Cole, who will likely cost 35 mil/year, that means one more significant addition - a 2nd SP (Ryu, Wheeler, etc) or someone like Grandal?  

Signing Cole, as exciting as it would be, likely does not leave a ton of money left to address other areas.  So the question is - would we rather sign Cole + a 2nd SP or someone like Grandal, or instead of Cole, sign 3 SPs like Ryu, Wheeler, Odorizzi, OR 2 SPs + Grandal.

 

This team so desperately needs depth. The disparity between our depth and that of any playoff team is absurd, guys like Suarez, Sandoval, Thaiss, Hermosillo, Peters have no business being the next man up on a winning team, but that is where this team is at. For that reason I'm in favor for whatever offseason plan can help us fill out our rotation and have Barria and Canning as depth pieces instead of fixtures out of the gate. 

All I'm saying is look at the direction the smarter teams are taking in regards to spending big in free agency. There are better, more sustainable ways to win than throwing money at free agents. Granted Cole is as close as you can get to a flawless FA with his age, dominance, and lack of red flags but if landing him or Strasburg is our only chance to win, then we've got much bigger problems than one free agent can fix.

I know it is an unpopular opinion, but maybe we should stay away from the big money free agents and instead attempt to acquire controllable talent through trades. It's pretty clear at this point that dishing out big money in free agency is generally a bad idea, especially for a team like the Angels that 1) has been spurned by it multiple occasions in recent memory and 2) only really has money to acquire Cole + maybe 1 and then have very little financial flexibility in the following season. In my opinion free agency can be very helpful, but it should be used as a way to supplement the talent already present, not as a means of remaking a team.

First let Calhoun go and hand Adell the job in RF. If he falters, give Marsh a shot.

In free agency I would go after short term deals on productive vets in free agency:

One of Chirinos, Wieters, Martin, Gomes to split time with Smith at catcher

One of Howie, Asdrubal Cabrera, Starlin Castro to provide us with added depth around the infield. I really like the idea of having Rengifo in AAA as insurance and Fletcher/La Stella/ One of these guys providing flexibility at nearly every infield position

Sign one or 2 of Kyle Gibson, Hamels, Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Wacha

Trade for one of Bundy, Caleb Smith, Kyle Freeland, Joe Musgrove - controllable guys who can fit in as reliable middle of the rotation starters, have shown upside, and won't cost the farm. 

And of course the usual waiver claims and minor league deals to bolster the pen

I think Rendon should be the team's main target. He would instantly transform us from a mediocre offense into a dangerous one. Think about this 1-5: Fletcher, Rendon, Trout, Ohtani, Upton. That is possibly the best in baseball. 

Cole will not transform this rotation on his own. I'd rather play to our strength (lineup) and plug the holes in the rotation with cheaper guys like Kyle Gibson, Wacha, Hamels, Gio Gonzalez. I get that the Harvey/ Cahill plug ins didn't turn out great, but I think that is still a sound free agency strategy, we just wiffed on the player evaluation. Take advantage of the market being down on the veteran guys who can still produce and continue to plug until the rotation has enough farm grown guys to sustain itself, because this rotation needs at least 3 offseason additions. 

Buttrey tipping his pitches or just overworked? He's been getting hit harder lately

Barria's looking like a solid rotation piece. Imagine if we could somehow net a top of the rotation starter: Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, Shoemaker, #1 starter would be a really solid rotation. Until the injuries hit of course

7 hours ago, totdprods said:

That's not necessarily a bad thing. 

2015 Giavotella gave us .272/.318/.375/.694, an OPS+ of 96 and 0.9 WAR in 129 G, 502 PA - he also only went 2-3 in SB attempts and was really poor defensively, not to mention he was limited to 2B.

Fletcher (probably) won't give us more power than that, maybe even a little less, but his OBP may tick up a little higher, he's likely to swipe quite a few more bases, and his defense is leaps and bounds better - not to mention he's already played 4 positions with the Angels in 31 games. 

All told, David Fletcher should be able to give you a 2-3 WAR player with his speed and defense, if he roughly matches Giavotella's slash, which is definitely doable. For ~$600k or whatever league minimum is, that's pretty damn good. Between he and Rengifo, we should be able to utilize at least one as the full-time 2B next year, with the other serving as a UT IF or AAA depth option. I could still see Eppler buying a cheap vet IF in the offseason to pad the depth a bit, someone who replaces Marte/Valbuena.

Didn't realize he was an above average defender. If that's the case he could definitely make a very good utility infielder maybe along the lines of Brock Holt. 

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

I wouldn't trade Marsh straight up for Abreu or even Fletcher for Schoop. 

I know a lot of people here are high on Fletcher, but I don't really understand why other than him hitting very well in the minors this year. I'd be surprised if he turned out to be anything more than a Jonny Giavotella type

54 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

You will never get more for Skaggs than you would right now.

That doesn't mean I try to actively trade him.  But until I know what is offered, I don't decide anything.

Yup, Skaggs looks promising but he has yet to prove he can even pitch a full season. Could be a similar situation to when we passed on trading Bedrosian during his best season when the reliever trade market was ridiculous. Not saying I would actively shop him, but it shouldn't be out of the question.

29 minutes ago, Lou said:

AW from 2008-2017 - "Having a set closer is stupid. The best pitcher should enter the game when he's needed the most."

AW now - "Get a F***ing closer, Eppler!!!"

I still like this idea. Only thing is I couldn't really name our best reliever. Alvarez? Maybe Parker?

Knowing what we know now, would you have given Arrieta the contract he received from the Phillies (3 year 75 million)? Not the ace he once was but definitely would be the best, most reliable starter in our rotation this season. 

Got to believe we will make a big splash at the deadline for a top of the rotation starter if things continue like this. I'm talking Archer or Michael Fulmer

Our lineup reminds me of what the Rangers had in their World Series years. The one that was seemingly guaranteed to walk off against our bullpen if they were down by 4 or less in the 9th.

2 hours ago, VariousCrap said:

 

I've said it before this offseason and I'll say it again: Counting on Parker to be as exceptional as he was last year is a mistake by the Angels.  I'm not saying he is going to be bad, but people penciling him in to be the CP are jumping the gun a bit.  This is why this team needs another BP arm.  I hope I'm wrong though.

Parker is the least of my worries, as he's posted solid numbers in the past he's just been overlooked. The bullpen as a whole over performed last year and I fear it will regress minus the exceptional innings provided by Petit and to an extent Hernandez. 

I am definitely a fan of the Cozart signing, but I have a feeling he'd be another guy left on the outside looking in had we not snatched him up early. Can't complain though as his deal even as is could be a bargain. 

10 minutes ago, Stradling said:

What is horribly sad is this team might actually be better with him on the bench.  He could play 2nd, 3rd, 1st and LF if needed.  And I don't even like the guy.  

He just doesn't seem like a winning player. Talent is all there, but his attitude was horrible

I've always been a big fan of Cobb's, but he's really just as much of a question mark health wise as the rest of our rotation. I get that Arrieta has red flags and I wouldn't pay him more than Darvish money, but I would be in favor of signing him to a similar deal with 4 or 5 years. We wouldn't be paying him to be the ace he was, we'd be paying him to be our best starter for this year and next. How much do you guys think he is worth if we're paying him soley based on future performance?

I guess it depends on whether or not you think he'd substantially increase our chances of winning the world series. I would say yes, at least for this year and next. Maybe I'm just still on the Eagles superbowl high, but signing Arrieta seems similar to the Eagles trading for Ajayi. Their running game was already solid (about average) as is our current rotation but they took a chance on a talented player who people were down on. I'm almost certain the Eagles don't win the superbowl without Ajayi. Obviously money wasn't the issue in the Ajayi case, but if we want a world series, it's not going to happen with an average to slightly above average rotation. 

I understand he is over the hill. But that hill was literally being a top 5 starter in baseball. He would still be our best pitcher and would make this team a world series contender without harming the farm. 

I see a lot of people saying we should go after another starter along the lines of Odorrizi, Cashner, Lynn. While I have nothing against those options, I don't see how they actually improve the team beyond providing depth. Why not just get the guy who would actually likely be our best starter in a season where we are trying to not just make the postseason, but make noise. I understand he is not the ace he once was, but he would still likely be our best starter (Richards if healthy and Ohtani have equal potential, but key word is likely). This team has the pieces to make the playoffs, but if we are to make an addition to the rotation, why not add the guy who would give us the best chance to get over the hump between playoff team and WS contender. 

Will Arrieta be overpayed? Yes in terms of his later years likely lacking production, but why tread water with the other guys when we have a lot of key guys in their primes now and not getting any younger (Upton, Calhoun, Simmons, Richards, Cozart).