nikkachez

My point overall was that we had an outstanding year offensively in 2014 and a slightly less than mediocre one in 2015.  The personnel changes were Gia for Kendrick, Joyce et al for a slightly above average hamilton and poor seasons after very good ones from iannetta and Aybar.  

 

We've made up the Aybar difference with defense (supposedly).

We won't get the 2014 production from Iannetta, but probably somewhere in between

We've swapped out production at 3b so we likely break even from both 2014 and 2015

 

So now we are left to make up for the difference at 2b (which was substantial) and LF (lesser so or at least much easier to find slightly above average production).  

 

My other point is that even if we fall a bit short, we will have improved the offense without doing all that much.  

 

The other side of the ball saw a substantial drop as well.  In particular on the SP side of things.  Decreased production from Richards, Shoe and Weaver in particular were hurtful as was the loss of Skaggs.  

 

I am expecting improvement from Richards (because we have to expect that or else we are in trouble).  I will give him a pass that his injury messed with him for a while and his second half peripherals were better.  

Skaggs is back and while we don't know what we are going to get from him, I think he will be solid

Heaney is another year older and will be solid.

Santiago is what he is and frankly that's fine

Same with Wilson if we don't trade him

 

To me, Weaver gets a short leash this year although I know that MS won't put him on one.   But he's unlikely to be very good

 

Trop and Shoe will be there for depth with the former having a solid chance to progress.  

 

I think you hit the nail on the head. The pitching is a huge X-factor. I think having a full offseason to just rest and get ready as opposed to rehabbing will do him wonders, along with having a normal Major League spring training routine instead of playing catch up with minor league rehab starts. We'll have a full year of Heaney, Skaggs has had a ton of time to recover from his surgery, can't wait to let him continue to develop. CJ will be healthy (hopefully). I think Weaver and Shoemaker will be better than last year, even if it's a slight improvement. I think the rotation will easily be able to duplicate the 2014 staff. My one real big question is the bullpen. Remember how strong it was down the stretch? After the Frieri for Grilli flip, picking up Street, Jepsen seemed to have really turned a corner, Morin emerged as a stud, even Rasmus and Salas were really solid. Then pen heading into 2016 is nowhere near as deep or strong as that group. I think Morin will bounce-back, but I have some serious questions about the bullpen. I think they need to make a move before the season starts, and even then, I think they'll need to make a move during the season (much like the boost the Grilli trade provided). 

 

Left field will get addressed (whether it's Cespedes, Upton, Gordon, Span, etc.), I think they still want to make a move for a second baseman (they could flip a starter for one), but the pen should be the very next focus. I'd even argue it's more of an issue than second base. Just trying to guess along with the Halos FO. 

If this is the left field solution, I will be piiiiiissssed. If you're going the cheaper route, Arte, at least make it someone like Hyun-soo Kim. 

His projection is a better estimate of his current skill than his total career line. Do you think his career in Coors, Minute Maid and Wrigley and what he hit 6 years ago are more relevant than a park neutral projection for the 2016 season? I'm actually not sure that they don't use Wrigley for their estimation. Either way there is not a significant difference between his projection and his career line.

First, math is not your friend. It's an over 100 point difference in OPS, not 200. You learn this stuff in 1st grade.

Second, projections are not 'conservative' they are the mean of all expected outcomes. He is as likely to out hit that line as he is to fall short.

Third, speaking of 'some goddamn thought' you are a fool if you expect Fowler to match his career line if he plays 2016 in an Angels uniform. Before you you post again you should do some research on park effects. You might find them pretty eye opening actually.

Lol oh shit Willits was at .356, actually not bad considering how bad he was.

Point remains! That's some weak tea with those comparisons!

Reggie Willits career: .256 / .356 / .302 

Dexter Fowler 2016 Steamer projection: .250 / .347 / .387

 

So... mild exaggeration?

Lol wait wait wait you used ones career, and then ones projections for next season (which are always conservative)? How in the hell is that fair? 

 

Willits Career: .256/.356/.302

 

Fowler Career: .267/.363/.418

 

That's over a .200 difference in OPS. What a pathetic argument lol

 

Even then, Baseball Reference has Fowler's projections of .258/.351/.408. At least put some goddamn thought into it before making such a stupid point. 

Heyward strikes me as a better NL guy than AL guy. Especially for the price. Fowler is going to be a cheap alternative. I would have preferred him over Heyward due to cost.

But with the trade of Escobar, I don't know how much of a need a leadoff guy is. Pujols is becoming a one trick base clogging fat pony. It would be nice to put someone that can drive Trout in without the need for a homer behind him.

That's why I think the Angels will quietly be going after Cespedes.

1. Escobar

2. Calhoun

3. Trout

4. Cespedes

5. Pujols

6. Cron

789 would be Simmons, Perez, and the 2B. Unless the 2B becomes someone like Murphy. Then Calhoun probably gets moved behind Pujols.

Cespedes is my number 1 target, only problem is that the lineup only has the one left-handed bat, Kole Calhoun. Think they'd need to add somebody left handed into the mix (and no I'm not counting on Choi to be that guy).

I think they want Gordon.

Then I guess Heyward is not very good either, or just barely average.

Yeah seemed a bit dramatic. He's not amazing, but a very useful and solid ballplayer. A .350-.360 OBP at the top of the lineup would be huge.

Inject as much OBP as possible. I'd think Fowler, Span, Gordon, and Upton are the top choices for them. But they need 2-3 really good bats in my opinion.

Giving up the pick stings, but Fowler's at the top of my board. I think he'd benefit moving to left field, he's known as a great teammate, and doesn't break the bank. Move Escobar down to the #2 spot, then get creative with a Wilson and/or Hector trade (maybe even along with Cron) for a pen arm, lefty DH option, and some low level prospects. Get young pieces back for CJ and Hector, sweeten the deal with Cron in one of them, sign a lower tier starter, then go to war.

Cespedes, Upton, Fowler, and Span are my guys. 

I'd actually hit Upton second, lineup's going to be right-handed heavy anyway, have Kole hit more in the middle. Escobar, Upton, Trout, Pujols, Calhoun, Cron, etc. 

Choi to Ortega, so metta 

Alright, now go get one of the big name outfielders. 

I do, and I'm thinking it's still for a third baseman or second baseman. I think we'll see a trade before any free agent signings. 

ONLY if they blow the first pick on on a Heyward, Gordon, or Upton. Even then I'd hesitant. Dude's gonna get paid for one postseason. 

I think they go the FA route for LF with all of the options available. Use the few, precious trade assets left to get a third or second baseman with the FA market being weak in those areas. 

I would be happy with Upton. Heck, I'd be happy with Heyward, Upton, Cespedes, or Gordon. 

I just don't think the Cards or Cubs will shell out the dough to get Heyward. Neither were going to spend that much on a starting pitcher (rumors were that the Cards bid for Price were $30 million less than Boston's offer), I don't think Heyward is a huge need for the Cardinals considering they have Grichuk, Holliday, Pham, and Piscotty in the outfield, along with big needs at first and the starting rotation with Lynn out for the year (and losing Lackey). Between the two, I'd think the Cubs sign him, and trade Soler for a starting pitcher. 

Could make room for Heyward and Chen. That'd give the Angels anywhere from $29m to $38m to spend before the tax.

Or they could sign two big bats. They may see all the defensive upgrades as an indirect way of upgrading the pitching.

I would be pretty happy with Cespedes and Chen. That's 30+ homerun potential and 200+ solid innings in the rotation, but I'm interested in what routes they could take to keep the pick. Somewhat (at least) intriguing FA's without the draft pick compensation. Pedro Alvarez, Chris Carter, Justin Morneau, Ben Zobrist, David Freese (lol), Rajai Davis, John Jaso, Henderson Alvarez, Johnny Cueto, Doug Fister, Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, Kenta Maeda, Seung-hwan Oh, Antonio Bastardo, Tony Sipp. Limits the options a bit. Cueto and Cespedes? Seems a little sketchy haha

While Cespedes isn't my first choice, he improves our LF defense and offensive production by a TON. So I'm OK with it. 

 

Plus we don't lose a draft pick. 

Exactly where I'm at, just not my first choice. Would still need a leadoff hitter. 

I'd be pissed if they got Bruce. 

I think they'd be fine selling low on him if they can clear the salary. They've been clearing so much salary I'm actually wondering if they are thinking of signing two major FAs.

Trade CJ, get as much salary relief as possible, get at least a decent piece back, trade Hector for another piece, then sign Heyward and a starting pitcher? Trading CJ and Hector could free up $13-$16 million. 

That's exactly the biggest reason I don't see Heyward as the ideal fit. We'd still need a lead off guy. I know technically Heyward could be a candidate, but I don't see that fitting best. And I can't see Calhoun/Heyward (in either order) at 1-2.

Angels need a lead-off hitter still, and that will only happen if they get one at 2B, 3B, or DH.

Or, OF I suppose, if they traded Calhoun and signed someone like Span in addition.

Agreed, Heyward should be hitting second. Tough to find a good matchup since it would basically have to be a second or third baseman. If they went the DH route, maybe John Jaso? 

Run prevention babyyyyyy. Now sign Heyward. 

I think Freese gets re-signed, even it's not my preferred choice, and I think Utley is signed for the last bench spot. Gives some depth at second, first, and maybe even third while adding another lefty bat to the mix. One of the big free agents will be signed, I'm gonna go with Heyward, and then CJ+cash will get traded for a pen arm or something along those lines.