UCLAngel

In the first post it asks, "think he drops to the Angels?"  If I'm not mistaken, we have the 30th pick of the draft, so my answer was no, I don't think he drops to the Angels. 

26th, I believe.

Dipoto must think that this will have psychological effects on the other guys in the system.  That's the only explanation I can come up with.  Maybe he thinks it'll be viewed as disloyal if he cuts or sits another player already in the system.  Maybe he thinks the atmosphere will become too circus-like. Dochalo's probably right--seems like something else is going on behind the scenes.  I'd think guys would love to have him as a teammate and hear NFL stories--the Rangers brining in Russell Wilson seems to get good reviews.

To me, you give the guy a workout and let other teams come and view the workout.  If you don't want him in the system, trade him.  If you do, keep him. 

Green looks like he added a little weight (good weight) this offseason. Maybe my eyes are deceiving me...

Weaver seems to be grooving 'em right now.  Lots of hard hit balls.

This was a fun read. Thanks!

So what happens if he ends up just being solid?  What happens if it takes him 3 years to get to the majors.  Then you've paid 80mil for 3 years of big league play and then he goes to arb as well.  

 

It's a lot more complicated than giving this kid 40mil and then pay a tax.  the timeline of when he actually comes up and what his arb years cost is a huge factor as well.   

I was under the impression that he is subject to the standard rules, i.e., he could take 5 years to reach the majors and the team would still have 6 years of control.  Admittedly, I'm not sure, but that's how I thought it worked with the international players who are still considered amateurs.

On the arbitration point, it would be interesting to see whether he would even consider arbitration.  Even if he's performing at superstar level, superstars in their first year of arbitration still don't make a ton.  Look at the first year arbitration cases for some of the recent greats - Kershaw set records with his $7.5M in his first year or arb.  Ryan Howard got $10M but he hit 47 homers and had 136 RBIs the year before.  If the kid elects arbitration, it means he probably had a monster year before and he still might take a slight pay cut the first year hoping to make it up on the back end.  He'll probably be getting around $7M a year. 

Whether or not these international signees waive their right to arbitration is another question.  I haven't heard of any going to arbitration, so I have no idea whether that remains part of their amateur status.  Do you know for sure that's the case?

Yup, very testy indeed. Honestly it's probably my fault I didn't mean for you to be defensive over it.

Not getting defensive--I don't really put too much stock into anything said on a message board.  But it seems like there's a common theme of you saying we shouldn't even try to project what the team might do (which is ironic considering you contribute to a prospect blog).  Isn't that kind of the point of these types of boards?

The Angels will definitely be chasing bats, but as for narrowing them down, don't even try.  How many position players in the last 20-30 years have projected the same as Trout has coming out of high school?  How many projected better?  Now I ask, of all those, how many actually ended up being as good as Mike Trout?

Not trying to narrow, just hoping to have a discussion.  My only point was to draw parallels between the two, which I believe there are.  By no means do I think he'll end up being as good as Trout.  I enjoy talking about the draft and the prospects that may or may not be available when the Angels pick.

You seem to get a little testy about these sorts of things.  No need to try to shut down conversations about it.  I think we all get that any predictions/projections are almost certain to be wrong.

I like looking through the prospects in the upcoming draft.  Looking at MLB's list of Top 50, one jumped out.

Garrett Whitley is currently ranked #35 in the draft.  His analysis sure sounds similar to Trout's HS analysis.

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 60 | Arm: 50 | Field: 55 | Overall: 50

Niskayuna (N.Y.) High has produced an NFL wide receiver (Andre Davis) but never a baseball Draft pick, but that will change in 2015. Whitley emerged as a potential first-rounder with a succession of strong performances late in the summer on the showcase circuit.

Whitley has an advanced approach at the plate for a high schooler from a cold-weather state, and his strength and bat speed could produce above-average right-handed power. His pure speed is his best tool, grading as a legitimate plus.

Whitley's wheels also give him plenty of range in center field, and he has a better arm than most players at that position. He has committed to Wake Forest.

For comparison's sake, here's Trout's analysis from MLB:

Player Grades   PRESENT FUTURE Hitting 35 50 Power 35 55 Plate Discipline 45 55 Running Speed 55 55 Fielding Range 60 65 Arm Strength 45 45 Feel for Game 40 50

I'd love to get Betts, but with the Angels' emphasis on the Northeast, this kid could be high on their board.  It'd be interesting to see if lightning could strike twice.

i honestly am not sure why we aren't signing multiple cuban prospects. it seems like the perfect opportunity to stock our farm system with some high value hitters, which is really what is keeping the system "down". we're going to be out of the market for a few years because of baldoquin, so i'm at a loss personally.

Honestly, I would guess that the Angels sign at least one more international prospect.  Ibanez seems likely to have a good cost-to-value ratio.

Living in Rancho Santa Margarita, I used to run into these broads a lot while they were filming at places around town. Haven't seen them in a few years though so not sure if they film it in this part anymore or if I've just been super lucky to avoid it.

Hey, neighbor.

To me, this is reason enough to trade Josh.  I'm sure the show would love the drama of having one of it's stars forced to deal with her husband's trade.

Seems like the Angels' offseason is pretty much complete.  The last things I'd like to see happen:

1. Sign a hard-throwing relief pitcher on the cheap.  Someone like Albers or maybe take a cheap flyer on Crain.

2. Moncada. From everything I've read, he sounds like a top-10 talent.  The farm badly needs some top-tier positional talent.  Baldoquin was a start, but we'll be significantly hamstrung in Latin America for a few years with the penalties.  Clearly, it'll take a lot of money to get him, but he'd be a huge fix for our most glaring weakness.

I think it's been a good offseason.  Need to get spring training underway.

With Kubitza, I think DiPo is laying the groundwork for a big free agent signing or two next year.  It's been reported that DiPo is looking to move one or both of CJ and Hamilton.  If those two rebuild their value this year, I could see the team moving them to save some money.  Next offseason, the Angels could be in position to sign two of the following big FA players:

SP - Johnny Cueto; David Price; Jeff Samardzija; Jordan Zimmerman

RP - Huston Street

C - Matt Wieters

OF - Justin Upton; Jason Heyward

If I had my pick of the lot, I think I'd take Price and Heyward.  Our staff would look something like: Price, Richards, Heaney, Weaver, Shoemaker.  Skaggs could serve as depth or be moved to bolster the farm and compensate for the lost draft picks.  Tropeano and Santiago would be the replacements.  Heyward would slot in nicely in the 2-hole, although I could see Scioscia hitting him fourth for lefty-righty balance reasons).  Lineup would be something like:

Calhoun

Trout

Pujols

Heyward

Cron

Aybar

Kubitza

Featherston/Rutledge/Green

Perez/Bandy

What I actually expect will happen--the Angels will extend Street during the year (maybe 3 yrs/$25m).  CJ reverts back to his maddening self, restores some value and gets traded.  Hamilton improves enough to convince the Angels to hang on to him.  We add one of the four named starting pitchers and resign Joyce to an extension, who continues to platoon with Cron.  

This offseason has been pretty wild, but I expect next will be even more so.  What would you like to see/expect to happen?

The Angels for the past few years have had a deceivingly good system. I mean it's no coincidence that their bottom of the barrel farm system just happened to produce Trout, Calhoun, Richards, Shoemaker, Cron, Segura and bullpen talent all in a short amount of time.

Oddly enough at the same time the Royals had the consensus top minor league system and the talent they've produced is less than the Angels have. Ranking systems love raw 18 year old first round prospects, not 23 year old collegiate players in AA.

The Angels just need to keep doing what they're doing and fans need not worry about an arbitrary rank.

While you can certainly select anecdotal evidence to make your point, I suspect that prospect impact likely mirrors prospect rankings to some degree.  We have examples of high-ranked systems busting and producing very little, but I'd guess (admittedly without doing any type of analysis) that higher-ranked systems tend to produce more at the big league level than lower ranked systems.  

I anticipate that the Angels will keep doing what they're doing regardless of what the rankings or fans say.  And all prospect work, including every write up you put together, is completely arbitrary--it will have absolutely no impact on the actual outcomes.  So, for the sake of your job as a Angels/prospect blogger, I hope the fans continue to care about those arbitrary rankings and analysis.

After the additions of Heaney, Trop, Baldo, Perez and improvement in Sanchez, others where does our farm system rank? I have to think it'd move us up.

Oakland loses to KC in the WC game.  We pull KC at home first series.  Baltimore eliminates Detroit. Just my opinion. 

Dipoto nailed this one.  JeDi made the right move in non-tendering Jerome and keeping Jepsen.  It had to be a hard decision--Jerome had a great story, popular with fans, etc.  Jepsen was the destroyer of hope, had the stuff but not the mental strength.  Jepsen has been very good for the greater portion of the year.  Great call, Jerry.

exactly what we hoped Blanton would be.  Very rarely is he brilliant but rarely is he abysmal.  He's just good and steady--keeps us in games and lets his offense go to work.  He's a very nice fit at the 5.  I expect a little regression but even with some regression he'd still be effective for the Angels.

It's nice to have a guy like him.

It's likely the Angels told him beforehand that they'd select him early in the draft if he signed for a discount. He probably knew he was projected to go later and agreed to a bonus that was likely higher than he would've received but still a steep discount for the team.

How about Griffin Canning from Santa Margarita?  Seems like they've really stayed away from California kids recently.  Would love to see more local guys.  

6th Round Pick:

 

RF Alex Abbott from Tift County HS, GA

Can't much on him.  Rightfielder in HS.  Committed to Florida.  Bats left throws right. I like this pick.  See if we can lure him away from college.

I think it'd be a good strategy to sign high upside California high school kids.  "Look, you could end up in Cleveland or Canada three years from now.  Why not just sign with us and, in a few years, you could be playing in your backyard?"

Bouchard - 3B w/ great bat speed from San Diego

Adams - C from San Diego

Cameron Bishop - LHP/OF - Brea Olinda

Coltin Gerhart - OF - Vista Murrieta (Toby's brother)

These guys fit the bill. 

Who is left on the board that people really want? I'm happy we are going pitching heavy so far.

This seems to be the right time to grab 4-5 high upside high school kids and see if you can sign them away from college commitments.

Other guys I like:

Byler - 3B at Nevada.  See if he can drop some weight and stay at third.

Wetzler - Guy who scorned the Phillies.  His velocity was down this year, but he went 10-1 w/ a 0.84 ERA in the Pac-12.

Shoot for a HS catcher or two as well and see if one of them develop. 

My real preference from this point on would be to draft all HS kids and shoot to sign half of them.  Restock with upside and quality instead of quantity.  Doubt it'll happen though.

Touki?

Hoping we get Michael Gettys.

Can you convert me to the Gettys love? I'm not sure I get it. Admittedly, I've never seen him play, but everything I read says that he really underperformed this last year. I worry that he's all tools little performance a la Bolden/Clarke. Have you seen him play? What happened with him this year?